Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at 5.38 percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at four percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at 1.75 percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to 3.5 percent, the ECB refi rate to 2.65 percent, the Bank of England bank rate to 3.33 percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to 0.75 percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Based on an "illustrative scenario" in which the United Kingdom (UK) moves to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union (EU) on the 1st of January 2021, this forecast shows the expected annual average bank base interest rate in response to the current Covid-19 pandemic. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the Covid-19 virus, on the 19th of March 2020 the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate to a record low of 0.1 percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from 0.75 percent to 0.25 percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. In the current forecast scenario, bank interest rates are set to stay between 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent up to 2022.

This statistic shows the forecasted Bank Rate in the United Kingdom (UK) from first quarter 2017 to first quarter 2024. The rate at which the Bank of England can loan money to commercial banks is set to increase gradually over this period, at a net increase of 1.2 percentage points.

Key information about United Kingdom Long Term Interest Rate

• United Kingdom Long Term Interest Rate: Month Avg: United Kingdom: ECB Harmonised was reported at 4.52 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 4.67 % pa in the previous month.
• UK Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1993 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 8.99 % pa in Sep 1994 and a record low of 0.15 % pa in Jul 2020.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by CEIC Data.

• In the latest reports, UK Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: ICE LIBOR: 3 Months was reported at 0.09 % pa in Apr 2021.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Base Rate) was set at 4.50 % pa in Feb 2025.
• UK Exchange Rate against USD averaged 0.79 (USD/GBP) in Jun 2023.

Due to interest rates decreasing in recent years, mortgages in the United Kingdom have become overall more affordable: In 2007, when mortgages were the least affordable, a home buyer spent on average 23.6 percent of their income on mortgage interest and 7.2 percent on capital repayment. In 2019, the year with the most affordable mortgages, mortgage interest accounted for 5.9 percent and capital repayment was 11.5 percent of their income. As interest rates increase in response to the rising inflation, mortgage affordability is expected to worsen. Though below the levels observed before 2007, the total mortgage repayment between 2022 and 2026 is expected to exceed 23 percent of income.

Mortgage rates increased at a record pace in 2022, with the 10-year fixed mortgage rate doubling between March 2022 and December 2022. With inflation increasing, the Bank of England introduced several bank rate hikes, resulting in higher mortgage rates. In September 2023, the average 10-year fixed rate interest rate reached 5.1 percent. As borrowing costs get higher, demand for housing is expected to decrease, leading to declining market sentiment and slower house price growth. How have the mortgage hikes affected the market? After surging in 2021, the number of residential properties sold declined in 2022, reaching close to 1.3 million. Despite the number of transactions falling, this figure was higher than the period before the COVID-10 pandemic. The falling transaction volume also impacted mortgage borrowing. Between the first quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the value of new mortgage loans fell year-on-year for fourth straight quarters in a row. How are higher mortgages affecting homebuyers? Homeowners with a mortgage loan usually lock in a fixed rate deal for two to ten years, meaning that after this period runs out, they need to renegotiate the terms of the loan. Many of the mortgages outstanding were taken out during the period of record-low mortgage rates and have since faced notable increases in their monthly repayment. About five million homeowners are projected to see their deal expire by the end of 2026. About two million of these loans are projected to experience a monthly payment increase of up to 199 British pounds by 2026.

This dataset provides values for INTEREST RATE reported in several countries. The data includes current values, previous releases, historical highs and record lows, release frequency, reported unit and currency.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of 0.1 percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from 0.75 percent to 0.25 percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at 0.1 percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to 2.25 percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching 5.25 percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2024, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates in an effort to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

From 2003 to 2025, the central banks of the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union exhibited remarkably similar interest rate patterns, reflecting shared global economic conditions. In the early 2000s, rates were initially low to stimulate growth, then increased as economies showed signs of overheating prior to 2008. The financial crisis that year prompted sharp rate cuts to near-zero levels, which persisted for an extended period to support economic recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to further rate reductions to historic lows, aiming to mitigate economic fallout. However, surging inflation in 2022 triggered a dramatic policy shift, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank significantly raising rates to curb price pressures. As inflation stabilized in late 2023 and early 2024, the ECB and Bank of England initiated rate cuts by mid-2024, and the Federal Reserve also implemented its first cut in three years, with forecasts suggesting a gradual decrease in all major interest rates between 2025 and 2026. Divergent approaches within the European Union While the ECB sets a benchmark rate for the Eurozone, individual EU countries have adopted diverse strategies to address their unique economic circumstances. For instance, Hungary set the highest rate in the EU at 13 percent in September 2023, gradually reducing it to 6.5 percent by October 2024. In contrast, Sweden implemented more aggressive cuts, lowering its rate to 2.25 percent by February 2025, the lowest among EU members. These variations highlight the complex economic landscape that European central banks must navigate, balancing inflation control with economic growth support. Global context and future outlook The interest rate changes in major economies have had far-reaching effects on global financial markets. Government bond yields, for example, reflect these policy shifts and investor sentiment. As of June 2024, the United States had the highest 10-year government bond yield among developed economies at 4.09 percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at 0.69 percent. These rates serve as important benchmarks for borrowing costs and economic expectations worldwide.

About 1.4 million households with mortgages up for renewal in the United Kingdom (UK) will face increasing monthly costs by the end of 2024 because of the aggressive mortgage interest hikes since the beginning of 2022. For about one million of these households, the increase will be between one British pound and 300 British pounds, while for 388,000 households, the increase will be higher. By December 2026, the number of households with rising mortgage payments is projected at 3.9 million. Meanwhile, about two million mortgage borrowers are expected to benefit from reduced mortgage payments by the end of 2026.

In 2023 the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.1 percent and is expected to grow by 1.1 percent in 2024 and two percent in 2025. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2026, and then 1.5 percent in 2027 and 2028. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK slips into recession in late 2023 In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before this latest recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. In the eight quarters between 2022 and 2023, the economy grew in just half of them, falling in three, and stagnating in one. As the UK gears up for a likely general election in 2024, the economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. As for which political party would handle the economy better, the ruling-Conservative party have trailed the Labour Party on this issue in polls since October 2022. High inflation persisting longer than expected One of the main factors that explains the UK's economic woes recently is rising prices. UK inflation accelerated sharply from late 2021 onwards, and reached a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Unfortunately for UK residents, wage growth has only recently caught up with inflation, with wages in real terms falling throughout for twenty months between November 2021 and June 2023. By January 2024, inflation had fallen to the more modest rate of four percent, but getting inflation down to such levels came at a price. The Bank of England raised interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023, which certainly played a part in the UK's weak economic performance during that time.

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Personal Loans Market Size 2025-2029

The personal loans market size is forecast to increase by USD 803.4 billion, at a CAGR of 15.2% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is witnessing significant growth, driven by the adoption of advanced technologies in loan processing and the rise in the use of cloud-based personal loan servicing software offerings. These technological advancements enable faster loan processing, improved customer experience, and enhanced security. However, the market faces challenges related to regulatory compliance, with increasing regulations and scrutiny from regulatory bodies. Lenders must ensure they adhere to these regulations to maintain trust and transparency with their customers. Digitalization, including cloud computing, chatbots, big data analytics, and artificial intelligence, has transformed the market. Additionally, the market is witnessing an increase in competition, with new players entering the market and existing players offering innovative products to attract customers. Overall, the market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by technological advancements and the need for flexible financing solutions.

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The market encompasses short-term financing solutions designed for individuals to meet their various financial needs. Employment status and credit history significantly influence borrowing limits and interest rates in this sector. Traditional balance sheet lending institutions, such as credit unions, have long dominated the market, but online loan providers have gained traction due to quick lending processes and digitalized business operations. Interest rates and borrowing limits continue to be key market drivers, with competitive insights from credit unions and online providers shaping the landscape. Employment instability and economic uncertainty have increased demand for personal loans, particularly among those with less-than-ideal credit histories.
Digitalization, including cloud computing, chatbots, big data analytics, and artificial intelligence, have transformed the market. These technologies streamline loan assessments, enabling faster approval processes and more personalized customer experiences. However, the rise of digital credit platforms also presents challenges, such as increased competition, potential bad debts, and penalties for late payments. Collateral is less common in personal loans compared to other types of loans, but awareness of digitalization and automation continues to grow. Credit cards serve as a competitive alternative for some consumers, but personal loans offer more flexibility and potentially lower interest rates for larger borrowing needs.

How is this Personal Loans Industry segmented and which is the largest segment?

The personal loans industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Application

  Short term loans
  Medium term loans
  Long term loans


Type

  P2P marketplace lending
  Balance sheet lending


Channel

  Banks
  Credit union
  Online lenders


Geography

  North America

    Canada
    US


  Europe

    Germany
    UK
    France
    Italy


  APAC

    China
    India
    Japan


  South America

    Brazil


  Middle East and Africa

By Application Insights

The short term loans segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

Personal loans have gained popularity as a flexible financing solution for individuals, particularly In the form of short-term loans. These loans cater to urgent needs, such as medical emergencies or car repairs, offering quick access to funds with shorter repayment periods, typically within a year. Unlike home or gold loans, personal loans do not require collateral, making them an accessible option for borrowers. Employment status, credit history, and borrowing limits are key factors in determining eligibility and loan amounts. The market is undergoing digital transformation, with cloud computing, chatbots, big data analytics, and artificial intelligence streamlining business operations. Fintech companies and online loan providers are disrupting traditional financial institutions, such as banks and credit unions, by offering instantaneous loan approvals and digital credit platforms.

However, challenges persist, including regulatory compliance, competition, and managing bad debts and penalties. In the competitive environment, Zopa, Startups, and other fintech companies are leveraging automation, AI technology, and credit history assessments to provide personalized loan solutions. Economic uncertainty and the increasing use of the Internet of Things have heightened aware

Key information about United Kingdom Exchange Rate against USD

• United Kingdom Exchange Rate against USD averaged 0.801 (USD/GBP) in May 2023, compared with 0.803 USD/GBP in the previous month.
• UK Exchange Rate against USD data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1957 to May 2023.
• The data reached an all-time high of 0.915 in Feb 1985 and a record low of 0.357 in Nov 1967.

• In the latest reports, UK Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: ICE LIBOR: 3 Months was reported at 0.088 % pa in Apr 2021.
• Its Long Term Interest Rate (Long Term Interest Rate: Month Avg: United Kingdom: ECB Harmonised ) was reported at 3.950 % pa in May 2023.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Base Rate) was set at 4.500 % pa in May 2023.

In 2024, the annual inflation rate for the United Kingdom is expected to be 2.5 percent, following an annual rate of 7.3 percent in 2023, and 9.1 percent in 2022. Before 2022, the inflation rate was at its highest in 2011 when it reached 4.5 percent, and was lowest in 2015 when an annual inflation rate of zero percent was recorded. Inflation has been surging in the UK since late 2021, and reached a 41-year-high of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Since that recent peak, inflation has gradually subsided, and was four percent in January 2024. Inflation down but not out in 2024 Although there are some positive signals regarding UK inflation decelerating throughout 2023, prices are still rising at quite a fast rate, especially in certain sectors. Food inflation, for example, only fell below double-figures in November 2023, and was still rising by 6.9 percent in January 2024. As of that month, however, alcohol and tobacco prices were rising faster than any other sector, with an inflation rate of 12.4 percent. Additionally, underlying core inflation, which measures prices rises without food and energy, is slightly above the headline inflation rate, and was 5.1 percent as of the most recent month. With some aspects of inflation seemingly becoming embedded in the UK economy, this will likely prolong the current Cost of Living Crisis engulfing UK households. Inflation crisis across in the world in 2022 The UK has not been alone in suffering from runaway inflation over the last few years. From late 2021 onwards, various factors converged to encourage a global acceleration of prices, leading to the ongoing inflation crisis. Blocked-up supply chains were one of the main factors as the world emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic. This was followed by energy and food inflation skyrocketing after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Central bank interest rates were raised globally in response to the problem, possibly putting an end to the era of cheap money that has defined monetary policy since the financial crash of 2008.

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Foreign Exchange Market Size 2025-2029

The foreign exchange market size is forecast to increase by USD 582 billion at a CAGR of 10.6% between 2024 and 2029.

The market continues to evolve, driven by several key trends and challenges. One significant trend is the increasing use of money transfer agencies, venture capital investments, and mutual funds in foreign exchange transactions. The Internet of Things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) revolutionize banking and financial services, enabling real-time personal finance software and content delivery for travelers and businesses. The uncertainty of future exchange rates fuels the demand for 24x7 trading opportunities. As urbanization progresses and digitalization becomes more prevalent, the market is expected to grow, offering numerous opportunities for businesses and investors.

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The market, also known as the forex or FX market, is a decentralized global market for the trading of currencies. It facilitates the conversion of one currency into another for various reasons, including international trade, tourism, hedging, speculation, and investment. Participants in this market include financial institutions, non-financial customers, individuals, retailers, corporate institutes, and central banks. Currencies are traded 24 hours a day, five days a week, due to the presence of multiple time zones and the interbank network.
Currency swaps, interest rate differentials, monetary interventions, economic indicators, political developments, and investment flows are some of the key drivers influencing the market. International trade, balance of payments, and economic instability in various countries also significantly impact currency values. Speculation and hedging activities, particularly by corporations and financial institutions, contribute to the volatility of currency rates. The market is increasingly leveraging artificial intelligence and Internet of Things technologies to optimize trading strategies, with mutual funds utilizing these advancements to enhance portfolio performance and manage currency risk more efficiently. The forex market plays a crucial role in facilitating international business transactions and managing risks associated with currency fluctuations.

How is this Foreign Exchange Industry segmented and which is the largest segment?

The industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.TypeReporting dealersFinancial institutionsNon-financial customersTrade Finance InstrumentsCurrency swapsOutright forward and FX swapsFX optionsCounterpartyReporting DealersOther Financial InstitutionsNon-Financial CustomersGeographyNorth AmericaCanadaUSEuropeGermanyUKAPACChinaIndiaJapanSouth AmericaBrazilMiddle East and Africa

By Type Insights

The reporting dealers segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period. The market, also known as Forex or FX, is a global financial market where participants buy, sell, and exchange currencies. This market involves various market participants, including financial institutions, non-financial customers, and corporations. Currency swaps, individuals, retailers, corporates, hedge funds, wealth managers, and foreign exchange services are among the key players. The markets facilitate international trade and investment flows, with economic indicators, political developments, inflationary pressures, and interest rate differentials influencing currency values. Monetary interventions, speculation, and risk appetite are also significant factors.
Modern technology and electronic platforms have increased efficiency and accessibility, enabling 24-hour operation. Currency exchange services, monetary policies, and regulations, including those by central banks, impact the market. Economic events, financial crises, and strategic corporate activities can cause volatility. Hedging strategies, accessible platforms, and personal finance considerations are essential for individual investors, small businesses, and multinational corporations dealing with major currency pairs. Online trading platforms and trade balances are crucial for managing currency risks in an increasingly globalized business environment.

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The Reporting dealers segment was valued at USD 278.60 billion in 2019 and showed a gradual increase during the forecast period.

Currency pairs are the foundation of forex trading, with spot trading being one of the most common methods of buying and selling currencies. Forward contracts and swap deals offer traders the ability to lock in exchange rates for future transactions, managing ris

Between January 2018 and February 2025, the United Kingdom's consumer price inflation rate showed notable volatility. The rate hit its lowest point at 0.5 percent in August 2020 and peaked at 9.6 percent in October 2022. By September 2024, inflation had moderated to 2.6 percent, but the following months saw inflation increase again. The Bank of England's interest rate policy closely tracked these inflationary trends. Rates remained low at 0.5-0.75 percent until April 2020, when they were reduced to 0.1 percent in response to economic challenges. A series of rate increases followed, reaching a peak of 5.25 percent from August 2023 to July 2024. The central bank then initiated rate cuts in August and November 2024, lowering the rate to 4.75 percent, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. In February 2025, the Bank of England implemented another rate cut, setting the bank rate at 4.5 percent. Global context of inflation and interest rates The UK's experience reflects a broader international trend of rising inflation and subsequent central bank responses. From January 2022 to July 2024, advanced and emerging economies alike increased their policy rates to counter inflationary pressures. However, a shift began in late 2024, with many countries, including the UK, starting to lower rates. This change suggests a potential new phase in the global economic cycle and monetary policy approach. Comparison with other major economies The UK's monetary policy decisions align closely with those of other major economies. The United States, for instance, saw its federal funds rate peak at 5.33 percent in August 2023, mirroring the UK's rate trajectory. Similarly, central bank rates in the EU all increased drastically between 2022 and 2024. These synchronized movements reflect the global nature of inflationary pressures and the coordinated efforts of central banks to maintain economic stability. As with the UK, both the U.S. and EU began considering rate cuts in late 2024, signaling a potential shift in the global economic landscape.

The size of the United Kingdom Auto Loan Market was valued at USD 90.30 Million in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 122.64 Million by 2032, with an expected CAGR of 4.47% during the forecast period. The auto loan market refers to the financial services sector that provides loans for purchasing vehicles. It enables consumers to finance the cost of new or used cars, spreading payments over a set period through monthly installments. Auto loans are typically offered by banks, credit unions, and specialized financial institutions, with loan terms and interest rates depending on factors like the borrower’s creditworthiness, the type of vehicle, and market conditions. The demand for auto loans is driven by increasing vehicle ownership, rising consumer incomes, and the need for flexible financing options. Additionally, the growth of the automotive industry, particularly electric vehicles (EVs), has further boosted the market as more consumers seek loans for environmentally friendly cars. Digitalization and the rise of online banking have simplified the loan application process, allowing for quicker approvals and enhanced customer convenience. Recent developments include: December 2023: Blue Motor Finance Limited (Blue), an FCA-regulated UK-based car finance provider, prides itself on its ability to use technology to enhance its customer service. Customers can now request all of their agreement-related documentation for the life of their loan in one simple file at the touch of a button. Customers can also request to receive a settlement quote in real-time at a time convenient to them., August 2023: Santander Consumer Finance extended its partnership with MG Motor to provide dealers with an EV benefits scheme for customers.. Key drivers for this market are: Quick Processing of Loan through Digital Banking. Potential restraints include: Rising Interest Rates Affecting New Auto Buyers Demand for Loan. Notable trends are: Increasing Registrations of Electric Vehicle in United Kingdom.

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Alternative Finance Market Size 2024-2028

The alternative finance market size is estimated to increase by USD 64.3 billion at a CAGR of 7.44% between 2023 and 2028. The key factor driving the market forward is the potential for higher returns for investors. Alternative finance channels offer significantly greater returns compared to traditional investment options like fixed deposits (FDs) or government bonds from conventional financial institutions. Another important contributor to market growth is the rapid expansion in the APAC region and the increasing focus on structured finance. Alternative finance platforms, such as P2P lending, crowdfunding, and invoice trading, are gaining traction in APAC, driven by the presence of numerous small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

What will be the Size of the Alternative Finance Market During the Forecast Period?

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Alternative Finance Market Segmentation

The alternative finance market research report provides comprehensive data (region wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD Billion' for the period 2024 to 2028, as well as historical data from 2018 to 2022 for the following segments.

Type Outlook 

  P2P lending
  Crowdfunding
  Invoice trading





End-User Outlook

  Individual
  Organization





Region Outlook

  North America

    The U.S.
    Canada





  Europe

    The U.K.
    Germany
    France
    Rest of Europe





  APAC

    China
    India


  South America

    Chile
    Argentina
    Brazil





  Middle East & Africa

    Saudi Arabia
    South Africa
    Rest of the Middle East & Africa

By Type

The alternative financing market share growth in the segment of P2P lending will be significant during the forecast period. The P2P consumer lending sub-segment holds a major share of the P2P lending segment due to the growth in the number of online consumer lending platforms and the increasing use of technology in financial transactions. Some popular P2P lending platforms include LendingClub, Zopa, Bondora Capital, Prosper Marketplace, and Upstart Network. However, P2P lending is associated with a high risk of defaults as the loans are unsecured. Therefore, large investors usually maintain a spread portfolio of their investments. P2P lending is also associated with challenges such as platform failures, the risk of fraud, hacking, and data theft. These factors are expected to augment the demand of the P2P lending segment hence driving the growth of the market in focus during the forecast period.

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The P2P lending segment was valued at USD 123.70 billion in 2018. In this segment, P2P lending is similar to credit obtained from financial institutions. However, the funds are raised from one or more independent investors. P2P borrowers must make weekly or monthly repayments of the principal amount with interest. P2P lending is usually carried out through online platforms. Investors directly select businesses to fund, or the lending platforms provide the terms of credit. Some variations in the model allow investors to bid on loan amounts and interest rates through an online auction. P2P lending is popular among individual borrowers and SMEs, as small to medium-scale loans can be obtained easily. Several individuals opt for P2P loans for debt consolidation, which allows them to pay debts accrued from credit cards or loans from financial institutions.

By Region

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North America is estimated to contribute 70% to the global alternative financing market during the forecast period. Technavio's analysts have elaborately explained the regional market growth and trends that shape the market during the forecast period. The growth of P2P lending and crowdfunding has increased significantly in North America. The increasing number of students, growing awareness about clearing personal debt, rising Internet penetration, technological advances, the rise of online trading platforms and finance platforms, and the presence of prominent companies are the major factors driving the market in North America. The number of SMEs has grown significantly in North America. Therefore, a growing number of SMEs in this region are boosting the growth in North America.

Alternative Finance Market Dynamics

The market is reshaping the landscape traditionally dominated by conventional big banks and regulated banks. Instead of relying solely on traditional finance systems, entrepreneurs and investors are increasingly turning to alternative lenders and innovative financial services solutions. Online lenders offer streamlined access to capital, while reward-based crowdfunding and equity-based crowdfunding present opp

Over the five years through 2024-25, UK banks' revenue is expected to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.7% to £128.6 billion, including anticipated hike of 2% in 2024-25. After the financial crisis, low interest rates limited banks' interest in loans, hitting income. At the same time, a stricter regulatory environment, including increased capital requirements introduced under the Basel III banking reforms and ring-fencing regulations, constricted lending activity. To protect their profitability, banks have shut the doors of many branches and made substantial job cuts. Following the COVID-19 outbreak, the Bank of England adopted aggressive tightening of monetary policy, hiking interest rates to rein in spiralling inflation. The higher base rate environment lifted borrowing costs, driving interest income for banks, which reported skyrocketing profits in 2023-24. Although profit grew markedly, pressure to pass on higher rates to savers and fierce competition weighed on net interest income at the tail end of the year, the difference between interest paid and interest received. UK banks are set to continue performing well in 2024-25 as the higher interest rate environment maintains healthy interest income, aiding revenue growth. However, net interest income is set to dip marginally due to higher deposit costs and narrow margins on mortgage loans. With further rate cuts priced into markets, savings rates will drop in 2024-25, stemming the drop in net interest income. Over the five years through 2029-30, industry revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 3.3% to reach £151.1 billion. Regulatory restrictions, tougher stress tests and stringent lending criteria will also hamper revenue growth. Competition is set to remain fierce — both internally from lenders that deliver their services exclusively via digital channels and externally from alternative finance providers, like peer-to-peer lending platforms. The possibility of legislation like the Edinburgh reforms will drive investment and lending activity in the coming years, if introduced. However, concerns surrounding the repercussions of less stringent capital requirements and the already fragile nature of the UK financial system pose doubt as to whether any significant changes will be made.