According to exit polling in ten key states of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, Donald Trump received the most support from white voters between the ages of ** and **. In comparison, ** percent of Black voters between the ages of ** and ** reported voting for Kamala Harris.

According to exit polling in ten key states of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, Donald Trump received the most support from men between the ages of 45 and 64. In comparison, 61 percent of women between the ages of 18 and 29 reported voting for Kamala Harris.

In the 2020 election, around 42.8 percent of Asian voters exercised their right to vote. An additional 57.7 percent of Black voters voted. Voting rates have generally declined in presidential elections since 1996.

PROBLEM AND OPPORTUNITY In the United States, voting is largely a private matter. A registered voter is given a randomized ballot form or machine to prevent linkage between their voting choices and their identity. This disconnect supports confidence in the election process, but it provides obstacles to an election's analysis. A common solution is to field exit polls, interviewing voters immediately after leaving their polling location. This method is rife with bias, however, and functionally limited in direct demographics data collected. For the 2020 general election, though, most states published their election results for each voting location. These publications were additionally supported by the geographical areas assigned to each location, the voting precincts. As a result, geographic processing can now be applied to project precinct election results onto Census block groups. While precinct have few demographic traits directly, their geographies have characteristics that make them projectable onto U.S. Census geographies. Both state voting precincts and U.S. Census block groups: are exclusive, and do not overlap are adjacent, fully covering their corresponding state and potentially county have roughly the same size in area, population and voter presence Analytically, a projection of local demographics does not allow conclusions about voters themselves. However, the dataset does allow statements related to the geographies that yield voting behavior. One could say, for example, that an area dominated by a particular voting pattern would have mean traits of age, race, income or household structure. The dataset that results from this programming provides voting results allocated by Census block groups. The block group identifier can be joined to Census Decennial and American Community Survey demographic estimates. DATA SOURCES The state election results and geographies have been compiled by Voting and Election Science team on Harvard's dataverse. State voting precincts lie within state and county boundaries. The Census Bureau, on the other hand, publishes its estimates across a variety of geographic definitions including a hierarchy of states, counties, census tracts and block groups. Their definitions can be found here. The geometric shapefiles for each block group are available here. The lowest level of this geography changes often and can obsolesce before the next census survey (Decennial or American Community Survey programs). The second to lowest census level, block groups, have the benefit of both granularity and stability however. The 2020 Decennial survey details US demographics into 217,740 block groups with between a few hundred and a few thousand people. Dataset Structure The dataset's columns include: Column Definition BLOCKGROUP_GEOID 12 digit primary key. Census GEOID of the block group row. This code concatenates: 2 digit state 3 digit county within state 6 digit Census Tract identifier 1 digit Census Block Group identifier within tract STATE State abbreviation, redundent with 2 digit state FIPS code above REP Votes for Republican party candidate for president DEM Votes for Democratic party candidate for president LIB Votes for Libertarian party candidate for president OTH Votes for presidential candidates other than Republican, Democratic or Libertarian AREA square kilometers of area associated with this block group GAP total area of the block group, net of area attributed to voting precincts PRECINCTS Number of voting precincts that intersect this block group ASSUMPTIONS, NOTES AND CONCERNS: Votes are attributed based upon the proportion of the precinct's area that intersects the corresponding block group. Alternative methods are left to the analyst's initiative. 50 states and the District of Columbia are in scope as those U.S. possessions voting in the general election for the U.S. Presidency. Three states did not report their results at the precinct level: South Dakota, Kentucky and West Virginia. A dummy block group is added for each of these states to maintain national totals. These states represent 2.1% of all votes cast. Counties are commonly coded using FIPS codes. However, each election result file may have the county field named differently. Also, three states do not share county definitions - Delaware, Massachusetts, Alaska and the District of Columbia. Block groups may be used to capture geographies that do not have population like bodies of water. As a result, block groups without intersection voting precincts are not uncommon. In the U.S., elections are administered at a state level with the Federal Elections Commission compiling state totals against the Electoral College weights. The states have liberty, though, to define and change their own voting precincts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_precinct. The Census Bureau practices "data suppression", filtering some block groups from demographic publication because they do not meet a population threshold. This practice...

According to exit polling in ten key states of the 2024 presidential election in the United States, ** percent of surveyed white voters reported voting for Donald Trump. In contrast, ** percent of Black voters reported voting for Kamala Harris.

This graph shows the percentage of votes of the 2016 presidential elections in the United States on November 9, 2016, by age. According to the exit polls, about 56 percent of voters aged 18 to 24 voted for Hillary Clinton.

Immigration and demographic change have become highly salient in American politics, partly because of the 2016 campaign of Donald Trump. Previous research indicates that local influxes of immigrants or unfamiliar ethnic groups can generate threatened responses, but has either focused on non-electoral outcomes or has analyzed elections in large geographic units such as counties. Here, we examine whether demographic changes at low levels of aggregation were associated with vote shifts toward an anti-immigration presidential candidate between 2012 and 2016. To do so, we compile a novel, precinct-level data set of election results and demographic measures for almost 32,000 precincts in the states of Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington. We employ regression analyses varying model specifications and measures of demographic change. Our estimates uncover little evidence that influxes of Hispanics or non-citizen immigrants benefited Trump relative to past Republicans, instead consistently showing that such changes were associated with shifts to Trump's opponent.

This Supplementary Empirical Teaching Units in Political Science (SETUPS) module, a cumulative file, permits analysis of elections and voting behavior in the United States across the general election years 1972 through 1992. The data are taken from AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTION STUDIES CUMULATIVE DATA FILE, 1952-1992 (ICPSR 8475), conducted by Warren E. Miller and the National Election Studies. A subset of items, including behavioral, attitudinal, and sociodemographic data, were drawn from the full election survey. Variables in this dataset include which party the respondent voted for for president, senator, and representative, as well as the respondent's own party identification. Other items include political involvement, ideology, perceptions of candidate image, opinions about government performance, and attitudes on specific issues. Demographic information on respondents includes gender, race, age, marital status, education, employment status and occupation, income, religion and church attendance, and region of the country and type of community in which the respondent lived.

Scholarship on women voters in the United States has focused on the gender gap showing that women are more likely to vote for Democratic Party candidates than men since the 1980s. The persistence of the gender gap has nurtured the conclusion that women are Democrats. This article presents evidence upending that conventional wisdom. Data from the American National Election Study are analyzed to demonstrate that white women are the only group of female voters who support Republican Party candidates for president. They have done so by a majority in all but 2 of the last 18 elections. The relevance of race for partisan choice among women voters is estimated with data collected in 2008, 2012, and 2016, and the significance of being white is identified after accounting for political party identification and other predictors.

This web map displays data from the voter registration database as the percent of registered voters by census tract in King County, Washington. The data for this web map is compiled from King County Elections voter registration data for the years 2013-2019. The total number of registered voters is based on the geo-location of the voter's registered address at the time of the general election for each year. The eligible voting population, age 18 and over, is based on the estimated population increase from the US Census Bureau and the Washington Office of Financial Management and was calculated as a projected 6 percent population increase for the years 2010-2013, 7 percent population increase for the years 2010-2014, 9 percent population increase for the years 2010-2015, 11 percent population increase for the years 2010-2016 & 2017, 14 percent population increase for the years 2010-2018 and 17 percent population increase for the years 2010-2019. The total population 18 and over in 2010 was 1,517,747 in King County, Washington. The percentage of registered voters represents the number of people who are registered to vote as compared to the eligible voting population, age 18 and over. The voter registration data by census tract was grouped into six percentage range estimates: 50% or below, 51-60%, 61-70%, 71-80%, 81-90% and 91% or above with an overall 84 percent registration rate. In the map the lighter colors represent a relatively low percentage range of voter registration and the darker colors represent a relatively high percentage range of voter registration. PDF maps of these data can be viewed at King County Elections downloadable voter registration maps. The 2019 General Election Voter Turnout layer is voter turnout data by historical precinct boundaries for the corresponding year. The data is grouped into six percentage ranges: 0-30%, 31-40%, 41-50% 51-60%, 61-70%, and 71-100%. The lighter colors represent lower turnout and the darker colors represent higher turnout. The King County Demographics Layer is census data for language, income, poverty, race and ethnicity at the census tract level and is based on the 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5 year Average provided by the United States Census Bureau. Since the data is based on a survey, they are considered to be estimates and should be used with that understanding. The demographic data sets were developed and are maintained by King County Staff to support the King County Equity and Social Justice program. Other data for this map is located in the King County GIS Spatial Data Catalog, where data is managed by the King County GIS Center, a multi-department enterprise GIS in King County, Washington. King County has nearly 1.3 million registered voters and is the largest jurisdiction in the United States to conduct all elections by mail. In the map you can view the percent of registered voters by census tract, compare registration within political districts, compare registration and demographic data, verify your voter registration or register to vote through a link to the VoteWA, Washington State Online Voter Registration web page.

According to exit polling in the 2020 Presidential Election in the United States, ** percent of surveyed 18 to 29 year old voters reported voting for former Vice President Joe Biden. In the race to become the next president of the United States, ** percent of voters aged 65 and older reported voting for incumbent President Donald Trump.

This poll, fielded February 12-14, 2000, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked to give their opinions of President Bill Clinton and his handling of the presidency, foreign policy, and the economy. Views were sought on the condition of the national economy, the projected federal budget surplus, and the most important problem for the government to address in the coming year. Several questions asked how much attention respondents were paying to the 2000 presidential campaign, the likelihood that they would vote in the Republican or Democratic primary, which candidate they expected to win the nomination for each party, and for whom they would vote in the presidential primary and general election. Respondents were asked for their opinions of Republican presidential candidates George W. Bush, John McCain, and Alan Keyes, Democratic presidential candidates Al Gore and Bill Bradley, the main reason they held a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each candidate, and the importance of a candidate's personal qualities and position on issues. Opinions were also solicited of First Lady Hillary Clinton, former President George H.W. Bush, the Democratic, Republican, and Reform parties, and how well members of the United States Congress were handling their jobs. Additional topics included abortion, campaign finance reform, and the effect of elections on the federal government. Information was also collected on the importance of religion on respondents' lives, whether they had access to a computer, Internet access, and e-mail, whether they had served in the United States armed forces, and whether they had a child graduating high school in the class of 2000. Demographic variables include sex, race, age, marital status, household income, education level, religious preference, political party affiliation, political philosophy, voter participation history and registration status, the presence of children and teenagers in the household, and type of residential area (e.g., urban or rural).

AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal and The Associated Press.

AP VoteCast combines interviews with a random sample of registered voters drawn from state voter files with self-identified registered voters selected using nonprobability approaches. In general elections, it also includes interviews with self-identified registered voters conducted using NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak® panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.

Interviews are conducted in English and Spanish. Respondents may receive a small monetary incentive for completing the survey. Participants selected as part of the random sample can be contacted by phone and mail and can take the survey by phone or online. Participants selected as part of the nonprobability sample complete the survey online.

In the 2020 general election, the survey of 133,103 interviews with registered voters was conducted between Oct. 26 and Nov. 3, concluding as polls closed on Election Day. AP VoteCast delivered data about the presidential election in all 50 states as well as all Senate and governors’ races in 2020.

Using this Data - IMPORTANT

This is survey data and must be properly weighted during analysis: DO NOT REPORT THIS DATA AS RAW OR AGGREGATE NUMBERS!!

Instead, use statistical software such as R or SPSS to weight the data.

National Survey

The national AP VoteCast survey of voters and nonvoters in 2020 is based on the results of the 50 state-based surveys and a nationally representative survey of 4,141 registered voters conducted between Nov. 1 and Nov. 3 on the probability-based AmeriSpeak panel. It included 41,776 probability interviews completed online and via telephone, and 87,186 nonprobability interviews completed online. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 0.4 percentage points for voters and 0.9 percentage points for nonvoters.

State Surveys

In 20 states in 2020, AP VoteCast is based on roughly 1,000 probability-based interviews conducted online and by phone, and roughly 3,000 nonprobability interviews conducted online. In these states, the margin of sampling error is about plus or minus 2.3 percentage points for voters and 5.5 percentage points for nonvoters.

In an additional 20 states, AP VoteCast is based on roughly 500 probability-based interviews conducted online and by phone, and roughly 2,000 nonprobability interviews conducted online. In these states, the margin of sampling error is about plus or minus 2.9 percentage points for voters and 6.9 percentage points for nonvoters.

In the remaining 10 states, AP VoteCast is based on about 1,000 nonprobability interviews conducted online. In these states, the margin of sampling error is about plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for voters and 11.0 percentage points for nonvoters.

Although there is no statistically agreed upon approach for calculating margins of error for nonprobability samples, these margins of error were estimated using a measure of uncertainty that incorporates the variability associated with the poll estimates, as well as the variability associated with the survey weights as a result of calibration. After calibration, the nonprobability sample yields approximately unbiased estimates.

As with all surveys, AP VoteCast is subject to multiple sources of error, including from sampling, question wording and order, and nonresponse.

Sampling Details

Probability-based Registered Voter Sample

In each of the 40 states in which AP VoteCast included a probability-based sample, NORC obtained a sample of registered voters from Catalist LLC’s registered voter database. This database includes demographic information, as well as addresses and phone numbers for registered voters, allowing potential respondents to be contacted via mail and telephone. The sample is stratified by state, partisanship, and a modeled likelihood to respond to the postcard based on factors such as age, race, gender, voting history, and census block group education. In addition, NORC attempted to match sampled records to a registered voter database maintained by L2, which provided additional phone numbers and demographic information.

Prior to dialing, all probability sample records were mailed a postcard inviting them to complete the survey either online using a unique PIN or via telephone by calling a toll-free number. Postcards were addressed by name to the sampled registered voter if that individual was under age 35; postcards were addressed to “registered voter” in all other cases. Telephone interviews were conducted with the adult that answered the phone following confirmation of registered voter status in the state.

Nonprobability Sample

Nonprobability participants include panelists from Dynata or Lucid, including members of its third-party panels. In addition, some registered voters were selected from the voter file, matched to email addresses by V12, and recruited via an email invitation to the survey. Digital fingerprint software and panel-level ID validation is used to prevent respondents from completing the AP VoteCast survey multiple times.

AmeriSpeak Sample

During the initial recruitment phase of the AmeriSpeak panel, randomly selected U.S. households were sampled with a known, non-zero probability of selection from the NORC National Sample Frame and then contacted by mail, email, telephone and field interviewers (face-to-face). The panel provides sample coverage of approximately 97% of the U.S. household population. Those excluded from the sample include people with P.O. Box-only addresses, some addresses not listed in the U.S. Postal Service Delivery Sequence File and some newly constructed dwellings. Registered voter status was confirmed in field for all sampled panelists.

Weighting Details

AP VoteCast employs a four-step weighting approach that combines the probability sample with the nonprobability sample and refines estimates at a subregional level within each state. In a general election, the 50 state surveys and the AmeriSpeak survey are weighted separately and then combined into a survey representative of voters in all 50 states.

State Surveys

First, weights are constructed separately for the probability sample (when available) and the nonprobability sample for each state survey. These weights are adjusted to population totals to correct for demographic imbalances in age, gender, education and race/ethnicity of the responding sample compared to the population of registered voters in each state. In 2020, the adjustment targets are derived from a combination of data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s November 2018 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement, Catalist’s voter file and the Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey. Prior to adjusting to population totals, the probability-based registered voter list sample weights are adjusted for differential non-response related to factors such as availability of phone numbers, age, race and partisanship.

Second, all respondents receive a calibration weight. The calibration weight is designed to ensure the nonprobability sample is similar to the probability sample in regard to variables that are predictive of vote choice, such as partisanship or direction of the country, which cannot be fully captured through the prior demographic adjustments. The calibration benchmarks are based on regional level estimates from regression models that incorporate all probability and nonprobability cases nationwide.

Third, all respondents in each state are weighted to improve estimates for substate geographic regions. This weight combines the weighted probability (if available) and nonprobability samples, and then uses a small area model to improve the estimate within subregions of a state.

Fourth, the survey results are weighted to the actual vote count following the completion of the election. This weighting is done in 10–30 subregions within each state.

National Survey

In a general election, the national survey is weighted to combine the 50 state surveys with the nationwide AmeriSpeak survey. Each of the state surveys is weighted as described. The AmeriSpeak survey receives a nonresponse-adjusted weight that is then adjusted to national totals for registered voters that in 2020 were derived from the U.S. Census Bureau’s November 2018 Current Population Survey Voting and Registration Supplement, the Catalist voter file and the Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey. The state surveys are further adjusted to represent their appropriate proportion of the registered voter population for the country and combined with the AmeriSpeak survey. After all votes are counted, the national data file is adjusted to match the national popular vote for president.

This poll, fielded August 19-22, 2008, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. A national sample of 1,298 adults was surveyed, including an oversample of African Americans. Information was collected on how closely respondents were following the 2008 presidential race, the chances that they would vote in the upcoming presidential election in November, and whether or not they voted in the presidential election in November of 2004. Respondents were also queried on which candidate they would vote for in the presidential election, and who they would like to see win the Democratic nomination. Respondents were asked whether they approved of the way George W. Bush was handling the presidency, whether they thought the country was headed in the right direction, and what was the single most important issue in their choice for president. Several questions asked respondents to compare Barack Obama and John McCain, and which candidate they trusted to handle issues such as the war in Iraq, energy policy, international affairs, the economy, and taxes. Respondents were queried on their level of enthusiasm for each presidential candidate, whether they thought Obama had the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president, and whether they thought McCain would lead the country in a new direction or mainly continue in Geroge W. Bush's direction. Respondents were also asked how comfortable they would be with McCain taking office at the age of 72 and Obama being the first African American President. Respondents were also asked how important they thought the Democratic and Republican national conventions would be in deciding how to vote for president in November. Respondents were queried on whether they thought it was possible for their child to grow up and become president, whether they thought that Obama's nomination for president represents progress for all African Americans or whether they thought it was only a single case that does not reflect broader progress for African Americans overall. Respondents were asked whether they thought Obama would serve as a leading role model to young African American men, whether Obama's nomination as the first African American presidential candidate made them more proud to me an American, whether they thought the war in Iraq was worth fighting, and whether the United States is making progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq. Lastly, respondents were asked whether they thought Russia was a close ally of the United States, how concerned they were that current tensions between the United States and Russia could lead to a new cold war, whether they thought abortion should be legal, and whether they would be more likely to vote for McCain if he picked a vice-presidential candidate who supports legal abortion. Demographic variables include sex, age, marital status, race, income, voter registration status, political ideology, political party affiliation, political philosophy, education level, religious preference, military status, and whether respondents considered themselves to be a born-again Christian.

Since 1964, voter turnout rates in U.S. presidential elections have generally fluctuated across all age groups, falling to a national low in 1996, before rising again in the past two decades. Since 1988, there has been a direct correlation with voter participation and age, as people become more likely to vote as they get older. Participation among eligible voters under the age of 25 is the lowest of all age groups, and in the 1996 and 2000 elections, fewer than one third of eligible voters under the age of 25 participated, compared with more than two thirds of voters over 65 years.

Abstract: This repository contains the full dataset and model implementation for the analysis of voting patterns in Romania's 2024 presidential elections, focusing on the relationship between territorial economic structures and electoral preferences. The models estimate vote dominance at LAU level using sectoral, demographic, and regional predictors, including spatial autoregression. Particular attention is given to the overrepresentation of Bucharest in national-level FDI statistics, which is corrected through a GDP-based imputation model. For reproducibility, the repository includes: Cleaned and structured input data (LAU, NUTS3), all modelling scripts in R, Tableau maps for visual analysis and public presentation.File DescriptionsLAU.csvThis dataset contains the local-level electoral and socio-economic data for all Romanian LAU2 units used in the spatial and statistical analyses. The file is used as the base for all models and includes identifiers for merging with the shapefile or spatial weights. It includes:- Electoral results by presidential candidate (2024, simulated),- Dominant vote type per locality,- Sectoral employment categories,- Demographic variables (ethnicity, education, age),- Regional and metropolitan classifications,- Weights for modelling.NUTS3.csvThis dataset provides county-level economic indicators (GDP and FDI) over the period 2011–2022. The file supports the construction of regional indicators such as FDI-to-GDP ratios and export structure. Notably, the file includes both original and corrected values of FDI for Bucharest, following the imputation procedure described in the model script.model.RThis R script contains the full modelling pipeline. The script includes both a model variant with Bucharest excluded and an alternative version using corrected FDI values, confirming the robustness of coefficients across specifications. It includes:- Pre-processing of LAU and NUTS3 data,- Imputation of Bucharest FDI using a linear model on GDP,- Survey-weighted logistic regression models for vote dominance per candidate,- Multinomial and hierarchical logistic models,- Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR),- Spatial error models (SEM),- Principal Component Analysis on SEM residuals,- Latent dominance prediction using softmax transformation,- Export of predicted latent vote maps.Maps.twbxThis Tableau workbook contains all final cartographic representations.The workbook uses a consistent colour palette based on candidate-typified economic structures (industry, services, agriculture, shrinking).- Choropleth maps of dominant vote by candidate,- Gradients reflecting latent probabilities from spatial models,- Maps of residuals and ideological factor scores (PCA-derived),- Sectoral economic geographies per county and per locality,- Overlay of dominant vote and sectoral transformation types.

This poll, fielded January 9-12, 2008, is a part of continuing series of monthly polls that solicit public opinion on various political and social issues. A national sample of 1,130 adults was surveyed, including an oversample of African Americans, for a total of 202 African American respondents. Respondents were asked whether they approved of the way George W. Bush was handling his job as president and other issues such as the situation in Iraq and the economy, and whether they thought things in the country were going in the right direction. This poll focused on the 2008 presidential election, and asked respondents what was the single most important issue in their choice for president, how closely they had been following the presidential race, how likely they were to vote in the 2008 presidential primary or caucus in their state, and which candidate they would vote for if the Democratic and Republican primaries were being held that day. Iowa and New Hampshire residents were asked whether they voted in the 2008 primaries in their states and for whom they voted. Respondents were asked for their opinions of the 2008 presidential candidates, including which Democratic and Republican candidates they trusted to handle issues such as health care, the United States campaign against terrorism, immigration, and international affairs, which types of characteristics were important to them in a candidate, which candidate would bring the most change to Washington, and which candidate had the best chance to get elected as president in November 2008. Several questions asked whether respondents were more or less enthusiastic about the candidates based on the possibility that they could become the first president who was African American, female, Mormon, 72 years old when elected, or a Baptist minister, whether being African American would help or hurt Barack Obama's candidacy, and whether the country needed a president to lead the nation in the same direction as George W. Bush. Additional topics included abortion, respondents' economic and financial situation, and the war in Iraq. Demographic information includes sex, age, race, education level, household income, type of residential area (e.g., urban or rural), whether respondents rented or owned their home, voter registration status and participation history, political party affiliation, political philosophy, marital status, religious preference, and whether respondents considered themselves to be a born-again Christian.

This dataset presents the results of Ecuador's presidential elections from the start of the 21st century to 2023, offering accessible, comprehensive, and comparable data at the canton level. It includes results from both the first and second rounds of elections, standardized to Ecuador's official geographic codes for consistent analysis across time and regions. The dataset contains information about election years and rounds, geographic details for provinces and cantons, voting results disaggregated by gender, data on valid votes, blank votes, null votes, voter turnout, demographic breakdowns of the electorate by gender and age group, and the number of votes received by each presidential candidate.

This poll, the second of three fielded January 2012, is a part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicits public opinion on a range of political and social issues. Respondents were asked how well Barack Obama was handling the presidency, foreign policy, the economy, and the threat of terrorism. Multiple questions addressed which Republican presidential candidates were favored, which were most likely to win against President Obama, which candidates were most trusted to handle various political issues, as well as whether President Obama and the Republicans in Congress were working together. Additional topics included the role of religion in elections, campaign financing, the Tea Party and the Occupy Wall Street movements, wealth distribution, and social class. Opinions were also sought about the most important problem facing the country at that time, and whether respondents felt the country was moving in the right direction. Finally, respondents were asked whether they voted in the 2008 presidential election and who they voted for, whether they had been contacted on behalf of any of the presidential candidates, and whether they were registered to vote. Demographic information includes sex, age, race, marital status, education level, household income, employment status, religious preference, type of residential area (e.g., urban or rural), political party affiliation, political philosophy, and whether respondents thought of themselves as born-again Christians.

This research note employs aggregate State level data to analyze the results of the 2024 US presidential election, and to explore the role played by gender and race in Kamala Harris’s defeat. The Democratic party failed to capitalize on the characteristics of its presidential candidate and, compared to Biden’s election, to expand its support in states with larger female and African American electorates, and faced systematic losses in those with more Hispanic voters. This note contributes to a cumulative macro-micro approach to the analysis of election results, and thus to overcoming both ecological and micrological fallacies.