In the 2021 C-SPAN Survey of Presidential Leadership, Abraham Lincoln was chosen as the country's top ranked president for the fourth time in a row. This is the fourth survey of its kind; the first was conducted in 2000, during Bill Clinton's final year in office, while the subsequent three surveys were held in the years after each respective president left office. Compared to the previous survey, the top nine presidents have remained in the same positions, while Barack Obama moved up from 12th place in 2017 to round out the top 10 in 2021. The bottom three presidents also remained unchanged from previous surveys, and were Abraham Lincoln's two predecessors and successor, ranked so low due to their perceived failures before and after the American Civil War.

Criteria A total of 142 experts took part in this survey, and were asked to rank each president on a scale of one (not effective) to ten (very effective) across ten different qualities. Scores in each area were then converted to an average value out of 100, and combined to give a total score out of 1,000. Generally, there was a strong correlation across the board in each area, for example, Lincoln ranked among the top four in each individual area, while Buchanan was in the bottom three of each. Despite this, there was some deviation; Lyndon Johnson was ranked second in the category Pursued Equal Justice For All, but 39th in International Relations. There has also been deviation over time, such as Woodrow Wilson falling from sixth place overall in 2000, to 13th place in 2021, or Ulysses S. Grant moving up from 33rd to 20th over the same period, as perceptions of past presidents' performances are revised over time.

Donald Trump The most recent president, Donald Trump, made his first appearance at number 41 on the list, out of a total of 44 entries (Grover Cleveland is generally viewed as the 22nd and 24th president, but has been included once here). In the individual criteria, Trump was ranked last in both Moral Authority and Administrative Skills, whereas Public Persuasion was the only area where he did not feature in the bottom quartile. The next survey will likely take place in either 2025 or 2029, at the end of Joe Biden's time in office, while we may be seeing Trump re-evaluated in the 2029 survey if he does run for office again and takes victory in the 2024 election.

This statistic ranks all U.S. Presidents from Washington to Trump using "Presidential Greatness" scores from the annual survey of current and recent members of the Presidents & Executive Politics Section of the American Political Science Association. In 2018, President Donald Trump, debuted on the list in last place with a Presidential Greatness score of **.

Presidential approval ratings have seen a general decrease in the last 50 years. Harry Truman, who served as U.S. president from 1945 to 1953, had an approval rating of 87 percent after his first 100 days as president. In comparison, Donald Trump, who was president from 2017 to 2021, had the lowest 100-day approval rating since 1945 at 41 percent.

This survey shows the average job approval ratings of U.S. presidents since World War II from Truman to Obama. As of January 2017, Barack Obama had an average approval rating of **** percent throughout his tenure.

The average for 2023 based on 113 countries was 0.17 1 elections, 0 otherwise. The highest value was in Argentina: 1 1 elections, 0 otherwise and the lowest value was in Afghanistan: 0 1 elections, 0 otherwise. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2023. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

The rise of female chief executives appears to signal gender progress, but this may not be unequivocally so. This article advances a contextual theory for the role of gender on leaders’ approval ratings, a key measure of “success” and source of executive power. I argue that because of gendered expectations and discourse, female presidents will receive lower approval ratings in contexts of corruption. The study focuses on Latin America, known for its powerful, masculinist presidential regimes and its democratically-elected female leaders. I first trace the gendered construction of President Michelle Bachelet’s image as an honest mother. Upon a presidential scandal, higher standards and gendered discourse resulted in deeply disappointed citizens, significantly undermining her popularity. Models of 18 Latin American countries next reveal a negative impact of being a female—rather than a male—president on approval ratings. Marginal effects plots show that female presidents score worse than their male counterparts in contexts of at least one presidential scandal and higher executive corruption. This article contributes to the growing literature on gender and corruption. It also challenges some conventional wisdom on the pro-women consequences of female leadership in providing a more nuanced account of the role of gender in the executive branch.

This dataset tracks annual overall school rank from 2014 to 2023 for Presidential Park Elementary School

This statistic shows the results of a 2013 survey among adult Americans on the achievements of US Presidents since Dwight D. Eisenhower. They were asked to rate the presidents as either outstanding /above average, average or below average. 28 percent of respondents thought current US President Barack Obama will go down in history as outstanding / above average, while 31 percent stated they consider his work average, and 40 percent found it below average.

This survey focuses on Americans' issues and ratings of politicians, presidential candidates pairings, third party, candidates' issues, Bob Dole's disability, football. Variables include rating of President Clinton, Bob Dole, pairing of Clinton/Dole/Perot, candidates' character and issues, Bob Dole's disability, football following, and demographics.

This is replication data for the paper titled:

"Detecting lexical political unpredictability in speech transcripts with generative AI"

submitted for peer review.

Abstract:

This study introduces Lexical Political Unpredictability (LPU), a novel generative AI-based metric measuring unpredictability in political speech. We analyzed 989 speeches delivered by 43 U.S. Presidents, computing LPU using cosine similarity between actual presidential sentences and those generated by GPT-3 (2020 release) and GPT-4o-mini (2024). Empirically, results robustly confirm across models that increased presidential speech unpredictability strongly correlates with higher Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), integrative complexity, and weaker democratic mandates. Granger causality tests reveal consistent evidence that economic uncertainty predicts subsequent increases in presidential unpredictability, emphasizing economic factors as key determinants of political rhetoric.
Methodologically, the study provides valuable insights into the stability and variability of generative AI-based results. Cross-model validation indicates that relationships between LPU, integrative complexity, and EPU remain highly robust when transitioning from GPT-3 to GPT-4o-mini. However, some relationships, notably involving presidential greatness ratings and the directionality of Granger-causal links, display considerable variability between models. This finding underscores a critical methodological lesson: while many core conclusions drawn from earlier generative AI models remain reliable, others - particularly nuanced or theoretically ambiguous ones - should be routinely revalidated using cutting-edge models. Thus, the study advocates ongoing, model-aware replication practices to differentiate genuinely stable empirical relationships from artifacts specific to particular generative architectures. Overall, the LPU methodology contributes a replicable and insightful quantitative approach to assessing political unpredictability, with practical implications for policymakers, researchers, and the broader public during periods of economic and political volatility.

The repository includes six datasets in .RData format:

1. df_GPT3.RData: Contains Lexical Political Unpredictability scores calculated using the GPT-3 model for each presidential speech. The dataframe includes cosine similarity standard deviation scores (sg1sd, sg2sd, sl1sd, sl2sd), speech dates, president names, presidential terms, political party affiliations, and speech transcripts.

2. df_GPT4o_mini.RData: Similar to df_GPT3 but with scores computed using the GPT-4o-mini generative AI model.

3. df_GPT4o_mini_mod_prompt.RData: Includes Lexical Political Unpredictability scores using GPT-4o-mini with a modified prompt incorporating personalized context about each president.

4. epu.RData: Contains monthly Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index values for the United States from January 1900 through March 2022, alongside corresponding year-month identifiers.

5. pres_rank.RData: Provides presidential greatness rankings, including normalized scores from the 2021 C-SPAN Presidential Historians Survey and the 2022 Siena College Presidential Rankings.

6. pres_personal_data: Contains integrative complexity and human capital scores for individual U.S. presidents.

All dataframes were utilized in various statistical analyses reported in the manuscript, including regression modeling and Granger causality testing. Independent variables in analyses include integrative complexity, presidential human capital, presidential greatness rankings, electoral mandate strength (percentage of the popular vote), and economic policy uncertainty (EPU).

The average for 2023 based on 18 countries was 0.22 1 elections, 0 otherwise. The highest value was in Argentina: 1 1 elections, 0 otherwise and the lowest value was in Bolivia: 0 1 elections, 0 otherwise. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2023. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

This dataset tracks annual overall school rank from 2012 to 2023 for Presidential Meadows Elementary School

President Trump Job Approval | RealClearPolling

Favorability Ratings: Political Leaders | RealClearPolling

This article hinges around the updated version of the electoral forecasting model devised by Lafay, Facchini and Auberger (2007) for the French presidential elections of 2022. Lafay and al. argued that the Socialist Party’s ratings were a reliable tool for predicting vote distribution between the left and the right at the second round of the elections. Socialist Party ratings alone cannot, however, account for Emmanuel Macron’s victory at the 2017 elections. As informative/useful as party ratings may be to predict electoral results, a number of adjustments remain necessary. Based on party ratings the indicators proposed in this article suggest the following first-round results for April 2022: Emmanuel Macron (29%), Valérie Pécresse (24.2%), Marine Le Pen (18.7%) and 24.7% for the mainstream and far left. While a Macron- Pécresse second round favors Emmanuel Macron, the final result ultimately depends on vote transfers between the left and the outgoing President. In a scenario where the left abstains and Marine Le Pen's election rallies to the candidate of the right (LR), Valérie Pécresse might clinch victory with a vote tally of around 51,58%.

Since the late 20th century, numerous Latin American nations have launched efforts to expand term limits, often successfully. This paper discusses the conditions under which countries succeed in expanding term limits. Drawing from bargaining models and reviewing 36 cases, I make three arguments. First, the preferences of actors are fairly predictable based on office-holding: presidents are the most prominent actors pushing for expansion of term limits; opposition parties lead the resistance. Second, power asymmetry, measured by presidential approval ratings, is the best predictor of success, better than ideology or share of seats in congress. Third, the only hope for stopping popular presidents rests with ruling parties (and the courts), but only when the latter are sufficiently independent.

This dataset tracks annual overall school rank from 2011 to 2023 for Presidents Elementary School

The average for 2023 based on 25 countries was 0.16 1 elections, 0 otherwise. The highest value was in Cyprus: 1 1 elections, 0 otherwise and the lowest value was in Austria: 0 1 elections, 0 otherwise. The indicator is available from 1960 to 2023. Below is a chart for all countries where data are available.

This county-level map shows. Voter Turnout for the 2020 U.S. Presidential election Data from County Health Rankings.Voter turnout is the percentage of citizen population aged 18 or older who voted in the 2020 U.S. Presidential election.Areas in dark blue indicate a lower voter turnout, while areas in light blue indicate a higher voter turnout. Data comes from County Health Rankings, a program of the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute with support provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.Voting collectively influences the health of our communities and healthier communities are more likely to vote. Studies show that communities with higher voter turnout tend to also have better self-reported general health, fewer chronic health conditions, a lower overall mortality rate, and less depression. Learn more about voter turnout from County Health Rankings & Roadmaps.A number of different policies can affect voter turnout, such as voter id laws, early voting, and mail-in ballots. Learn more about voter turnout strategies and initiatives.

This statistic shows the unfavorability ranking of United States presidential nominees from 1956 to 2016. As of June 23, 2016, Donald Trump was ranked as the most unfavorable presidential nominee since 1956 with 59 percent of those polled finding him unfavorable.