By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.995 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.031 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.564 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 543 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 87.972 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, ""http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf">A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods (https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f2ed/8fac87c0c82c3d85ca64ee9846658d8810fb.pdf?_ga=2.168797348.404457612.1561570817-1723670870.1561570817)," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 (http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm).

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.48% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Probability of Recession: Euro Area data was reported at 1.506 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.828 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: Euro Area data is updated monthly, averaging 5.278 % from Jan 1996 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 351 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 70.141 % in Mar 2009 and a record low of 0.016 % in Jul 2021. Probability of Recession: Euro Area data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table EU.S002: Probability of Recession: Euro Area.

Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data was reported at 0.840 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.180 % for Feb 2025. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data is updated monthly, averaging 0.150 % from Jun 1967 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 694 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in Mar 2021. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S089: Jeremy Piger Smooth Recession Probabilities.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to May 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Probability of Recession：美国在03-01-2025达0.995%，相较于02-01-2025的1.031%有所下降。Probability of Recession：美国数据按月更新，01-01-1980至03-01-2025期间平均值为1.564%，共543份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于05-01-2020，达87.972%，而历史最低值则出现于01-01-1980，为0.021%。CEIC提供的Probability of Recession：美国数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于CEIC Data，数据归类于世界趋势数据库的CEIC先行指标 – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession。

Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities在2025-03达0.840%，相较于2025-02的0.180%有所增长。Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities数据按月度更新，1967-06至2025-03期间平均值为0.150%，共694份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2020-04，达100.000%，而历史最低值则出现于2021-03，为0.000%。CEIC提供的Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis，数据归类于Global Database的美国 – Table US.S089: Jeremy Piger Smooth Recession Probabilities。

Probability of Recession：欧元区在03-01-2025达1.506%，相较于02-01-2025的1.828%有所下降。Probability of Recession：欧元区数据按月更新，01-01-1996至03-01-2025期间平均值为5.278%，共351份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于03-01-2009，达70.141%，而历史最低值则出现于07-01-2021，为0.016%。CEIC提供的Probability of Recession：欧元区数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于CEIC Data，数据归类于世界趋势数据库的CEIC先行指标 – Table EU.S002: Probability of Recession: Euro Area。