Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.

By 2047 the population of London is expected to reach 9.97 million people, an increase of almost 699,500 when compared with 2025. While there has been quite a steep rise in its population in recent years, London’s population growth was relatively stagnant throughout the 1980s and even decreased slightly towards the end of that decade. After peaking at 8.89 million in 2019, the population of London has fallen slightly, to 8.8 million by 2021. UK population forecast Like London, the population of the United Kingdom is forecast to continue to grow well into the middle of the century. By 2046, the population of the UK is estimated to be over 76.3 million people, an increase of over 20 million people when compared with the population figures for 1976. Additionally, the average age of the population is predicted to increase from 39.5 years in 2020 to 44.5 years by the mid-2040s, and continue to increase towards the end of the century. London looms large In the UK, London is by far the largest urban agglomeration in the country, dwarfing the UK's next largest cities of Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds. London also has a dominant economic position in the UK, with the city accounting for around a quarter of the total GDP in the country. The UK capital also has a far higher GDP per head than the rest of the county, at over ****** pounds in 2023, compared with the UK average of ****** pounds.

Principal projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.

This statistic shows the predicted population of the South East of England, United Kingdom (UK) from 2016 to 2041, based on the 2016 mid-year estimates. The figures show year on year growth, to a total population of approximately 10 million by 2041 for this region.

This graph shows the resident population projection of elderly people in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2050, by age group. There is expected to be an overall growth in the number of elderly people. It is expected that all age groups over the age of 60 are expected to increase in number; most substantially, those aged over 80 years.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The aims of this project were to:

• understand the demographic changes that United Kingdom local ethnic populations are presently experiencing and are likely to experience in the remainder of the 21st century
• understand the impact that international migration is having on the size and ethnic composition of UK local populations
• understand the role that differences in fertility between the UK's ethnic groups plays in shaping current and future trends
• understand the role that mortality differences between ethnic groups is playing in the changing demography of the UK's local populations
• understand how the ethnic diversity of UK local populations is changing and likely to change in the future
• deliver the projections as a resource for use by social science in the UK
• build capacity in the analysis of demographic change through the development of young and middle career researchers
• tap into the best practice internationally to benefit the UK social science community.

To achieve the project aims, the objectives were to:

• build projections of the populations of ethnic groups for UK local areas
• use the population projection model to explore alternative futures.

The project built a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of UK Local Authorities (LAs), which handles 352 LAs, 16 ethnic groups, 102 ages and 2 sexes. To drive the projections, estimates of the components of ethnic change were prepared for 2001-7. A new method produced UK estimates of ethnic life expectancy, ranging from 82 years for Chinese women to 77 for Pakistani. A future 2% decline in mortality per annum was assumed. Ethnic fertility estimates showed that only Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had total fertility rates above replacement. Small declines in fertility were forecast. New estimates of the local distribution of immigration were made, using administrative data, because of concerns about official figures. The ethnicity of both immigrants and emigrants for local areas was projected. Estimates were constructed of the ethnic group probabilities for internal in- and out-migration for LAs using 2001 Census data. These probabilities were assumed constant in the future, as migration was stable between 2001 and 2008. Five projections were produced. Two benchmark projections, using constant inputs from 2001-2, forecast the UK population would be 62 and 56 million in 2051.The official projection reports 77 million. The Trend projection, aligned to ONS assumptions projected 78 million for 2051. Using revised assumptions 80 million was projected in a fourth projection. When the model for emigration was changed the projected population was only 71 million. All projections showed ageing and dispersion of ethnic minorities. By 2051 the UK will have a larger, more diverse and integrated population.

For further information about the project, see documentation and the What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios ESRC award page.


Main Topics:

For full details of the individual files (and topics covered) within the study, see documentation files '6777_list_of_files.xlsx' and '6777_fileinformation.pdf' in the Documentation table below.

Users should note that this study is very large - c.8GB. Multiple files have been created for download, according to the type of compilation - benchef, bencher, trendef, uptapef and uptaper (see 6777_fileinformation.pdf for details). To obtain all files contained within the study, users should download all zip files.

Population growth (annual %) in United Kingdom was reported at 0.82121 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. United Kingdom - Population growth (annual %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on July of 2025.

Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for clinical commissioning groups in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.

Urban population growth (annual %) in United Kingdom was reported at 1.1099 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. United Kingdom - Urban population growth (annual %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on June of 2025.

This graph shows the resident population projection of middle aged people in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2050, by age group. There is expected to be an overall growth in the numbers of middle aged people, however certain age groups are expected to fall in number, such as those aged from 50 to 54 years and 55 to 59 years.

Mid-year (30 June) estimates of the usual resident population for electoral wards in England and Wales.

IMPORTANT NOTE: These projections have been superceded, please see https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/ for the latest GLA projections. The 2013 round of projections featured a large number of variants including: Three variants of trend-based projection (Central, High, Low) that used different migration assumptions and which were used to inform the Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA) and Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP). A further trend-based projection that took the migration assumptions from the Central projection, but updated the fertility assumptions to be in line with assumptions taken from ONS’s 2012-based National Population Projections. Two variants of development-linked projections using development trajectories derived from the 2013 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. These variants make use of different methodologies to incorporate development data into the population projections. Two Updates were released as part of the 2013 round. These detailed results and methodologies for the initial projection releases. The capped-household size model was released subsequently in response to demand from colleagues in some local authorities. An explanation of this and other methodologies is presented in the Technical Note. For general use, the GLA advises the use of the SHLAA-based projection using the capped household size model. This gives rise to a broadly similar total population for London as the Central trend-based projection used in the SHMA/FALP, but with a geographical distribution of population growth that better reflects likely future development. For the 2013 round, the decision was made to release the results of the ward-based projections by single year of age and gender, rather than in five-year age bands as in previous years. This change was to allow users to aggregate to the age bands of interest to them. It is important to note that the provision of these projections by single year of age and at unit level is to facilitate their subsequent use and is not an indication of their level of accuracy. Users should be aware that small area population estimates and projections are subject to high levels of uncertainty and potential inaccuracy. The custom-age population tool is here .

The statistic shows the total population in the United Kingdom from 2015 to 2019, with projections up until 2025. The population grew steadily over this period.

Population of the United Kingdom

Despite a fertility rate just below the replacement rate, the United Kingdom’s population has been slowly but steadily growing, increasing by an average of 0.6 percent every year since 2002. The age distribution has remained roughly the same for the past ten years or so, with the share of the population over 65 years old seeing a slight increase as the baby boomer generation enters into that age bracket. That share is likely to continue growing slightly, as the United Kingdom has one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

The population of the island nation is predominantly white Christians, but a steady net influx of immigrants, part of a legacy of the wide-reaching former British Empire, has helped diversify the population. One of the largest ethnic minorities in the United Kingdom is that of residents of an Indian background, born either in the UK, India, or in other parts of the world. India itself is experiencing problems with rapid population growth, causing some of its population to leave the country in order to find employment. The United Kingdom’s relatively lower levels of unemployment and the historical connection between the two countries (which has also resulted in family connections between individuals) are likely reasons that make it a popular destination for Indian emigrants.

National and subnational mid-year population estimates for the UK and its constituent countries by administrative area, age and sex (including components of population change, median age and population density).

This statistic shows the predicted population of the North West of England, United Kingdom (UK) from 2016 to 2041, based on 2016 mid-year estimates. The figures show year on year growth, to a total population of 7.7 million by 2041 for this region.

United Kingdom UK: Urban Population Growth data was reported at 0.958 % in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.028 % for 2016. United Kingdom UK: Urban Population Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 0.352 % from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.132 % in 2008 and a record low of -0.098 % in 1982. United Kingdom UK: Urban Population Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Urban population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices. It is calculated using World Bank population estimates and urban ratios from the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects.; ; World Bank staff estimates based on the United Nations Population Division's World Urbanization Prospects: 2018 Revision.; Weighted average;

Rural population growth (annual %) in United Kingdom was reported at --0.75505 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. United Kingdom - Rural population growth (annual %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on July of 2025.

Chart and table of population level and growth rate for the Manchester, UK metro area from 1950 to 2025.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the data for the England, AR population pyramid, which represents the England population distribution across age and gender, using estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2018-2022 5-Year Estimates. It lists the male and female population for each age group, along with the total population for those age groups. Higher numbers at the bottom of the table suggest population growth, whereas higher numbers at the top indicate declining birth rates. Furthermore, the dataset can be utilized to understand the youth dependency ratio, old-age dependency ratio, total dependency ratio, and potential support ratio.

Key observations

• Youth dependency ratio, which is the number of children aged 0-14 per 100 persons aged 15-64, for England, AR, is 30.4.
• Old-age dependency ratio, which is the number of persons aged 65 or over per 100 persons aged 15-64, for England, AR, is 24.3.
• Total dependency ratio for England, AR is 54.7.
• Potential support ratio, which is the number of youth (working age population) per elderly, for England, AR is 4.1.

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2018-2022 5-Year Estimates.

Age groups:

• Under 5 years
• 5 to 9 years
• 10 to 14 years
• 15 to 19 years
• 20 to 24 years
• 25 to 29 years
• 30 to 34 years
• 35 to 39 years
• 40 to 44 years
• 45 to 49 years
• 50 to 54 years
• 55 to 59 years
• 60 to 64 years
• 65 to 69 years
• 70 to 74 years
• 75 to 79 years
• 80 to 84 years
• 85 years and over

Variables / Data Columns

• Age Group: This column displays the age group for the England population analysis. Total expected values are 18 and are define above in the age groups section.
• Population (Male): The male population in the England for the selected age group is shown in the following column.
• Population (Female): The female population in the England for the selected age group is shown in the following column.
• Total Population: The total population of the England for the selected age group is shown in the following column.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for England Population by Age. You can refer the same here