In 2025, President Trump announced plans to implement a universal baseline tariff of 10 percent. Estimates show that a 10 percent universal tariff on imported goods would raise U.S. revenue by 2.95 trillion U.S. dollars, while a 20 percent tariff would raise revenue by 2.62 trillion U.S. dollars. Comparatively, imports before Trump's proposed taxes would increase revenue by 3.28 trillion U.S. dollars. By enacting tariffs on all imports, significantly less foreign-produced goods would be purchased, thus decreasing the overall amount of imported goods.

In the United States, the revenue from customs duty amounted to 80 billion U.S. dollars in 2023. The forecast predicts a slight increase in customs duty revenue to 97 billion U.S. dollars in 2024, and an increase over the next decade to 96 billion U.S. dollars by 2034.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Customs and other import duties (% of tax revenue) in United States was reported at 2.7662 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. United States - Customs and other import duties (% of tax revenue) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on June of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties (B235RC1Q027SBEA) from Q1 1959 to Q1 2025 about receipts, imports, tax, federal, production, government, GDP, and USA.

According to new estimations, if the 2025 tariffs were to remain in place, they would put more of a strain on households with lower income than those with more. The estimated tariff burden on households in the *** income decile is almost **** times that of the top decile.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

If proposed tariffs of 25 percent on goods imported into the United States from Mexico and Canada were put into effect, tax revenue would be impacted. Tax revenue from Mexican wine imports are projected to increase by 108 million U.S. dollars while taxes from Mexican spirits imports would decrease by 1.4 billion dollars.

Power Electronic Testing Market Size

As per the report from Market.us, The Global Power Electronic Testing Market is anticipated to grow significantly, reaching approximately USD 25 billion by 2034, up from USD 6.4 billion in 2024. This growth reflects a robust CAGR of 14.60% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2034, driven by rising demand for reliable power systems, expanding electric vehicle (EV) production, and increasing renewable energy installations.

In 2024, the Asia-Pacific region held a leading position, accounting for 38.6% of the global market share with revenue totaling USD 2.4 billion. Among regional markets, China emerged as a key contributor, generating approximately USD 0.98 billion in revenue and projected to grow at a steady CAGR of 11.2%. This growth is being fueled by China’s aggressive investments in EV infrastructure, industrial automation, and national power grid modernization programs.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global Assembly Fastening Tools market size will be USD 3,514.2 million in 2025. It will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.00% from 2025 to 2033.

North America held the major market share for more than 37% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 1300.25 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5% from 2025 to 2033.
Europe accounted for a market share of over 29% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 1019.12 million.
APAC held a market share of around 24% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 843.41 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.7% from 2025 to 2033.
South America has a market share of more than 4% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 133.54 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% from 2025 to 2033.
Middle East had a market share of around 4% of the global revenue and was estimated at a market size of USD 140.57 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% from 2025 to 2033.
Africa had a market share of around 2.2% of the global revenue and was estimated at a market size of USD 77.31 million in 2025 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2025 to 2033.
Inline Tool is the fastest growing segment of the Assembly Fastening Tools industry

Market Dynamics of Assembly Fastening Tools Market

Key Drivers for Assembly Fastening Tools Market

Rising Demand from Automotive Industry Is Expected To Boost Market Growth

Automation is transforming automotive manufacturing, with robotic and smart fastening tools becoming integral to production lines. Automotive manufacturers are increasingly adopting torque-controlled and data-driven fastening systems to improve efficiency, reduce errors, and ensure consistency in mass production. The integration of fastening tools with Industry 4.0 technologies, such as IoT and AI-based monitoring, further enhances productivity by enabling real-time data collection and predictive maintenance. This technological advancement is crucial in maintaining the high production volumes required to meet the growing global demand for vehicles. Additionally, stringent safety and quality regulations in the automotive sector necessitate the use of high-performance fastening tools. Manufacturers must comply with international safety standards such as ISO, ensuring that fastened joints remain secure under extreme conditions, including vibrations and high-impact forces. As automakers continue to innovate with new vehicle designs, including lightweight structures and modular assembly techniques, the need for specialized fastening tools will continue to grow. In February 2025, Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Källenius voiced concerns over President Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on the automotive industry, highlighting the company's substantial investments in the U.S. and the potential negative impact on both American and foreign car manufacturers.

https://www.the-sun.com/motors/13587592/mercedes-benz-ceo-fines-us-plans-trump-tariffs/

Growth in Aerospace and Defense Sector To Boost Market Growth

The aerospace and defense industry is one of the most demanding sectors when it comes to manufacturing precision, safety, and quality standards. Aircraft and defense equipment must meet strict regulatory requirements, necessitating the use of high-performance fastening tools for assembly and maintenance. Every component, from airframes and engines to avionics and interior structures, requires precise fastening solutions to ensure structural integrity, reliability, and resistance to extreme conditions such as high pressure, temperature fluctuations, and vibrations. This growing emphasis on quality and safety is driving the demand for advanced fastening tools designed specifically for aerospace and defense applications. In August 2023, the Pentagon's Space Development Agency awarded contracts totaling $1.5 billion to Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman for the development of 72 prototype communications satellites. These satellites are designed to provide encrypted communications for the U.S. military, forming part of the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture.

Restraint Factor for the Assembly Fastening Tools Market

High Initial Cost of Advanced Fastening Tools, Will Limit Market Growth

The ...

US Tariff Impact on Market

The U.S. tariffs on imported goods, especially electronic components and projection-based technologies, could affect the Projection-Based Digital Signage market. Tariffs are expected to increase prices of key components, including projectors, mounting equipment, and displays. The tariff impact is estimated to result in a 5-10% rise in production costs for U.S.-based digital signage companies.

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As a result, firms might face slower adoption rates due to increased expenses. The U.S. education sector, a dominant adopter of projection-based signage, could experience delayed installations of new systems due to cost hikes. Businesses in the market may either absorb the increased costs or pass them on to consumers, potentially leading to lower demand.

Economic Impact

The economic impact of U.S. tariffs could increase operational costs by 5-10%, leading to higher pricing for consumers and slower adoption of projection-based digital signage solutions.

Geographical Impact

North America will bear the brunt of these tariffs, especially in the U.S. market. Increased costs for U.S.-based manufacturers of projection-based signage solutions could limit the ability of businesses to compete globally, as production costs rise.

Business Impact

U.S. businesses in the projection-based digital signage industry could face reduced profit margins due to the increased costs of imported components. These firms might shift to alternative sourcing strategies, but this could lead to delays in the availability of new products and solutions, impacting revenue generation.

Capri Holdings reduces its 2026 revenue forecast amid tariff-related demand concerns for leather goods in North America and Asia.

Introduction

Tariffs are exerting a growing negative influence on the travel, tourism, and global supply chain sectors by driving up costs for both businesses and consumers. These added expenses often result in higher airfares, increased accommodation rates, and elevated overall travel budgets, making international tourism less attractive. For instance, airline operators facing higher import duties on fuel and aircraft components are forced to pass these costs onto passengers, which affects travel demand across borders.

The global tourism industry has demonstrated strong recovery momentum following the pandemic-era lockdowns, with demand for leisure and business travel rebounding across key markets. This upward trajectory is supported by increasing consumer confidence, greater digitalization in travel booking, and a renewed focus on experience-driven tourism.

Based on current growth patterns, global tourism spending is projected to surpass $2.9 trillion by 2035, marking a significant expansion from pre-pandemic levels. This long-term outlook is being bolstered by rising middle-class income in emerging markets, improved air connectivity, and supportive government policies aimed at rebuilding tourism ecosystems.

In the technology sector, companies like Apple have faced substantial financial impacts due to tariffs. Apple reported a $1.4 billion tariff hit, prompting the company to diversify its supply chain by shifting production from China to countries like India and Vietnam. This move aims to mitigate the effects of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports, which has significantly increased the cost of goods and affected pricing strategies.

Jaguar Land Rover revises its fiscal 2026 earnings forecast to 5%-7% due to global market uncertainties, notably U.S. tariffs, affecting Tata Motors' shares.

US iron and steel manufacturers, who are estimated to generate $108.4 billion in revenue for 2025, face a complex financial landscape after several years of fluctuating performance. While the industry has demonstrated a current period growth of 3.7% CAGR, the current year growth is estimated at 3.6%. Lower revenues in recent years were linked to depressed steel prices, caused by oversupply, sluggish demand in the construction and automotive sectors, and import competition. However, early 2025 has seen an uptick in prices driven partly by tariffs on imported steel, providing a glimmer of hope for improved earnings and profit, even as stricter EPA regulations on air quality and hazardous pollutants raise compliance costs. Characterized by a mix of large integrated producers and smaller specialized mills, the industry's structure is being reshaped by tariffs on foreign steel. While tariffs are boosting domestic manufacturers by creating a more favorable environment for domestic investment and job creation, they are also driving up costs for downstream industries such as automakers and construction firms. These tariffs, imposed to protect domestic producers, have contributed to higher US steel prices, even as manufacturers navigate increasingly stringent environmental regulations. The EPA's tougher air quality standards, targeting emissions from steelmaking processes, require costly investments in new equipment and process upgrades. As a result, the industry faces a complex landscape of trade tensions and varying profit impacts across different sectors. Looking ahead, the industry is expected to see growth stimulated by projected expansion in the domestic economy and large-scale federal infrastructure investments. Government initiatives, particularly those tied to infrastructure projects with “Buy America” provisions, are expected to bolster demand for domestically produced steel. The industry is projected to achieve a 1.7% CAGR through 2030, reaching $117.8 billion in revenue. Rising demand for green steel will also accelerate technology investments and transform production processes. Steelmakers will need to invest in expanding capacity, modernizing facilities and adopting advanced manufacturing technologies to meet anticipated demand and comply with evolving environmental standards.

The lumber industry has experienced significant volatility in recent years, with fluctuating prices impacting both the market and wider economy. During the pandemic, a housing boom driven by low interest rates and increased disposable income led to a surge in demand for lumber, significantly boosting mill revenues. However, prices later tumbled, affecting revenue as higher interest rates cooled the housing market and reduced demand for construction. Lumber production and shipments experienced declines, and the industry faced operating losses due to decreased demand. Looking ahead, prices are expected to rise due to tariffs on Canadian lumber imports and previous supply shortages, although high mortgage rates may still dampen demand. The ongoing trade dispute between Canada and the U.S. has resulted in increased tariffs, impacting Canadian producers who supply softwood lumber to the US market. Industry revenue is expected to rise at a CAGR of 2.6% to $51.6 billion through the end of 2025, with 2.0% growth forecast for the current year. Industry profit is expected to recover alongside rising lumber prices this year as well. The US housing market plays a crucial role in the lumber industry by driving demand for wooden materials used in construction and renovation. Despite past challenges with high interest rates and elevated home prices hurting residential investments and reducing lumber demand, there is optimism that the recent Federal Reserve rate will eventually translate to lower mortgage rates, potentially rejuvenating the housing market and building material demand. Even with these promising signs, a significant affordability barrier remains as home prices continue to overshadow median incomes, discouraging many first-time buyers and thus impeding growth in the housing market, impacting lumber demand negatively. The industry is also dealing with profitability challenges due to high costs and declining lumber prices, which have led to sawmill closures and under-utilization of capacities, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency. As a response, the industry is likely to see consolidation within domestic mill operations to maintain profitability amid market fluctuations. A notable development in the sector is the growth of the cross-laminated timber (CLT) specialist subsector, which promises a boom, supported by innovations in fire retardant technology and approvals for new timber certifications, like eastern hemlock trees, broadening opportunities for sustainable construction. Revenue is expected to increase at a CAGR of 1.6% to $55.9 billion through the end of 2030.

This table represents the breakdown of tax refunds by recipient (individual vs business) and type (check vs electronic funds transfer). Tax refunds are also represented as withdrawals in the Deposits and Withdrawals of Operating Cash table. All figures are rounded to the nearest million. As of February 14, 2023, Table VI Income Tax Refunds Issued was renamed to Table V Income Tax Refunds Issued within the published report.

Samsung Electronics anticipates strong Q1 2025 earnings, driven by increased chip sales amid US tariff concerns, despite challenges in manufacturing and competition.

Global Bulk Carrier Ships market size was $374.24 Billion in 2022 and it is forecasted to reach $412.36 Billion by 2030. Bulk Carrier Ships Industry's Compound Annual Growth Rate will be 4.4% from 2023 to 2030. Factors Impacting on Bulk Carrier Ships Market

Rise in international trading

Trading and transportation across the borders have dramatically increased over the past few decades. Moreover, recent couple of decades have seen mounted growth in world economy. This trade growth is an ultimate result of both technological advancements and reduction in trade barriers. Almost every country is aggressively promoting economic development which is driving world trade to significantly grow every year with an average growth of 6%. International trade allows countries to expand their markets by providing goods and services to other countries. It thus allows countries to extend their markets and get access to items and services that are otherwise be unavailable in their home country. International commerce also leads to the increasing competitiveness. This integration thus helps in raising living standards across the world. Import, export, and entrepot activities are used in international trade. Currently, technological innovation, increased need for a variety of items, and rising desire for authentic products are all driving up international commercial activity. Bulk carrier ships play vital role in supply chain by carrying cargo across oceans linking borders across the globe. It is one of the most cost-effective ways to transfer large amounts of commodities throughout the world. Shipping and seaborne trade have enabled the transition from a world of separated territories to a globally linked community. Hence surging international trade drives the growth of bulk carrier’s market across the globe.

Restraining Factor of Bulk Carrier Ships market

Volatility in transportation cost and tensions in trade across borders may hamper the growth of market Volatility in the prices of fuels impacts pricing of the goods. Further, in case of global rise in the tariffs, high import prices hamper firm's production costs as well as purchasing power of customers. Further, stringent regulations, such as tracking orders, meeting promised timeline, determining liabilities, etc. associated with shipping goods across borders may hinder the growth of market. Moreover, unstable political parameters of any particular country also hamper the cargo shipping market. For instance, Russia-Ukraine war has impacted the shipping industry owing to the rise in the oil prices. Furthermore, ongoing U.S.-China tariff stand-off is also threatening trading across the borders. Hence, geopolitical crisis somehow hinders the growth of bulk carriers ships market.

Current Trends on Bulk Carrier Ships

Technological Improvement

Demand for coal, ores and cement has increased owing to the liberalization in global trade. This demand will keep on increasing and to meet the growing demand, developments have been made to offer solutions that can enable reduction in the transportation cost. Moreover, rise in the environment concern is aiming to reduce the impact of CO2 emissions from ships on marine culture by reducing the fuel consumption. Hence, new regulations have made in designing smaller ship size bulk carrier ship with engines meeting the demand for lower rpm in order to obtain an optimum ship design with highly efficient large propellers.

What is the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Bulk Carrier Ships Market?

Advent of COVID-19 in year 2020 has plunged international trade due to the reduction in production and distribution of goods. Initial period of pandemic has resulted in the double-digit decline of revenue from bulk carrier ship market. However, the second half of pandemic global trade started recovering at relatively faster pace facilitating a V-shaped graph. What are Bulk Carrier Ships?

Carrier ships are the integral link between the production and its consumption all across the globe. It thus plays very crucial part in connecting global economy. It has been estimated that almost 80% of global goods gets transported across oceans via ships. Though air freight is less time consuming, but the cost associated with it is too high in comparison to carrier ships. Further, carrier shipping allows heavy loads, as well as hazardous materials which brings flexibility in tra...

Report Overview

The Global Anti-Money Laundering (AML) Software Market has demonstrated notable progress, achieving a market valuation of approximately USD 2.6 Billion in 2023. Driven by increasing regulatory scrutiny and the rising complexity of financial crimes, the market is expected to grow significantly over the next decade.

By 2033, the AML software market is projected to reach approximately USD 10.3 Billion, expanding at a robust Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.8% between 2024 and 2033. This sustained growth reflects heightened enforcement of anti-financial crime regulations globally, particularly within banking, insurance, fintech, and cryptocurrency sectors.

Key drivers include the growing need for real-time transaction monitoring, Know Your Customer (KYC) compliance, and the integration of AI and machine learning to enhance fraud detection accuracy. Institutions are increasingly investing in AML platforms not only to meet compliance requirements but also to reduce reputational and operational risks.

The Anti-Money Laundering (AML) landscape in 2022 revealed significant operational and regulatory complexities, reflecting both the scale of illicit financial flows and the evolving challenges in detection and enforcement. It is estimated that USD 800 Billion, equivalent to nearly 5% of global GDP, is laundered each year, emphasizing the vastness of the problem. Alarmingly, according to the United Nations, approximately 90% of global money laundering activities remain undetected, underscoring systemic inefficiencies in current global compliance mechanisms.

A key operational challenge identified was the high incidence of false-positive alerts, reported by 41% of financial organizations, based on Deloitte’s analysis. These alerts often strain compliance teams by diverting critical resources toward non-threatening cases, delaying responses to actual financial crime. Compounding this issue, 48% of banks reportedly continue to rely on outdated AML technology, hindering their ability to meet modern compliance expectations effectively.

Despite these challenges, there are some positive outcomes. Data from the UK’s National Crime Agency shows that 31% of illicit financial flows are intercepted annually via Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs). Yet, the impact is considerably muted when contrasted with findings from the University of Melbourne, which show that only 0.1% of laundered funds are eventually recovered post-investigation, highlighting the limited success of asset recovery efforts.