Rapeseed rose to 471.53 EUR/T on July 22, 2025, up 0.17% from the previous day. Over the past month, Rapeseed's price has fallen 5.66%, and is down 3.92% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Rapeseed Oil.

Canola rose to 701.35 CAD/T on July 24, 2025, up 0.42% from the previous day. Over the past month, Canola's price has risen 1.12%, and is up 4.87% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Canola - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The price of Refined Rapeseed Oil in April 2023 was $1,260 per ton (CIF, Netherlands), showing a decrease of 8.1% compared to the previous month.

In March 2023, the Refined Rapeseed Oil price stood at $1,809 per ton (CIF, US), with a decrease of -1.6% against the previous month.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global Rapeseed Methyl Ester market size will be USD 1324.5 million in 2024. It will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.60% from 2024 to 2031.

North America held the major market share for more than 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 529.80 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.8% from 2024 to 2031.
Europe accounted for a market share of over 30% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 397.35 million.
Asia Pacific held a market share of around 23% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 304.64 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.6% from 2024 to 2031.
Latin America had a market share of more than 5% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 66.23 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0% from 2024 to 2031.
Middle East and Africa had a market share of around 2% of the global revenue and was estimated at a market size of USD 26.49 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% from 2024 to 2031.
The Pure RME (B100) Type held the highest Rapeseed Methyl Ester market revenue share in 2024.

Market Dynamics of Rapeseed Methyl Ester Market

Key Drivers for Rapeseed Methyl Ester Market

Increasing Government subsidies and incentives for renewable energy sources to Increase the Demand Globally

Increasing government subsidies and incentives for renewable energy sources are driving the Rapeseed Methyl Ester (RME) Market by making RME more economically viable and attractive for both producers and consumers. These financial supports, such as tax credits, grants, and favorable regulations, lower the production costs of RME and make it competitive with traditional fossil fuels. Additionally, incentives encourage investment in RME production facilities and infrastructure, boosting supply. By promoting the use of RME, governments aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance energy security, aligning with broader environmental and energy goals. This support accelerates the adoption of RME, contributing to its growth in the biofuel market.

Increasing regulations and policies to Propel Market Growth

Increasing regulations and policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable energy sources are driving the Rapeseed Methyl Ester (RME) Market. Governments worldwide are implementing stricter environmental regulations, which mandate the use of cleaner, renewable fuels to combat climate change and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. RME, a biodiesel derived from rapeseed oil, fits well within these regulatory frameworks as a low-emission alternative to conventional diesel. Policies such as renewable energy mandates, carbon pricing, and biofuel blending requirements incentivize the use of RME, leading to higher demand. These regulations not only foster a more sustainable energy sector but also stimulate investments in RME production and infrastructure, driving market growth.

Restraint Factor for the Rapeseed Methyl Ester Market

High Production Costs to Limit the Sales

High production costs are restraining the Rapeseed Methyl Ester (RME) Market by making it less competitive compared to traditional fossil fuels and other biofuels. The production of RME involves expensive raw materials, primarily rapeseed oil, and complex processing technologies. These costs can be exacerbated by fluctuations in agricultural yields, which impact the price of rapeseed. Additionally, the need for specialized infrastructure and equipment further increases expenses. High production costs can lead to higher prices for RME, potentially deterring consumers and businesses from adopting it. This economic challenge makes it difficult for RME to compete on price with established energy sources, hindering its market expansion and limiting its growth potential.

Impact of Covid-19 on the Rapeseed Methyl Ester Market

The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the Rapeseed Methyl Ester (RME) Market by disrupting supply chains and reducing demand for biofuels. Lockdowns and economic slowdowns led to decreased transportation activity, which lowered the demand for diesel and, consequently, for RME. Supply chain disruptions affected the availability of raw materials and processing capabilities, leading to production delays and increased costs. However, the pandemic als...

The price of Refined Rapeseed Oil, CIF Mexico, dropped by 9.7% from the previous month to $1,571 per ton in June 2023.

In May 2023, the price of Refined Rapeseed Oil was $1,398 per ton (FOB, Germany), showing a decrease of -3.5% compared to the previous month.

Refined Rapeseed Oil Market Outlook

The global refined rapeseed oil market size was valued at approximately $X billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around $X billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Y% during the forecast period. The market's growth is propelled by increasing consumer awareness regarding the health benefits of rapeseed oil, which is rich in omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids, and its versatile applications in food and industrial sectors.

One of the primary growth factors for the refined rapeseed oil market is the escalating demand for healthier cooking oil alternatives. As consumers become more health-conscious, there is a significant shift towards oils that offer superior nutritional benefits. Rapeseed oil, known for its low saturated fat content and high levels of polyunsaturated fats, fits perfectly into this trend. The oil's role in reducing bad cholesterol and improving heart health has been widely documented, further fueling its adoption in households and commercial food preparations globally.

Another key driver of market growth is the expanding application of rapeseed oil in the biofuel industry. With the global push towards sustainable and renewable energy sources, rapeseed oil is increasingly being used as a feedstock for biodiesel production. The European Union, for instance, has set ambitious targets for renewable energy, which includes significant contributions from biofuels. This regulatory environment, coupled with the rising crude oil prices, is encouraging the adoption of rapeseed oil in the energy sector, thereby driving market expansion.

The industrial applications of refined rapeseed oil also play a pivotal role in its market growth. The oil is used in the production of lubricants, polymers, and other industrial products due to its advantageous properties, such as high oxidative stability and biodegradability. This makes rapeseed oil a preferred choice over traditional petroleum-based products, aligning with the global trend towards environmentally friendly materials. The growing industrial demand, particularly in emerging economies, is expected to significantly boost the market over the forecast period.

Refined Rice Bran Oil is gaining popularity as a healthier alternative in the edible oil market. Known for its high smoke point and mild flavor, it is ideal for a variety of cooking methods, including frying and baking. This oil is rich in antioxidants, such as oryzanol, which contribute to its heart-healthy properties by helping to lower cholesterol levels. As consumers become more health-conscious, the demand for refined rice bran oil is expected to rise, particularly in regions where rice is a staple food. Its versatility and nutritional benefits make it a preferred choice for both household and commercial kitchens, aligning well with the global trend towards healthier eating habits.

Regionally, Europe dominates the refined rapeseed oil market due to its well-established food and biofuel industries. The region's stringent regulatory framework supporting the use of renewable energy sources and health-conscious food regulations contribute to high consumption levels. North America and Asia Pacific are also expected to witness substantial growth, driven by rising health awareness and expanding industrial applications. Increasing disposable incomes and urbanization in these regions further enhance market potential, making them key areas for future investment and development.

Product Type Analysis

The refined rapeseed oil market is segmented into three main product types: Cold-Pressed, Expeller-Pressed, and Solvent-Extracted. Cold-pressed rapeseed oil is extracted mechanically without the use of heat, preserving the oil's natural flavor and nutritional properties. This method is highly favored by health-conscious consumers and gourmet chefs who prioritize quality and taste. The demand for cold-pressed rapeseed oil is growing steadily, driven by the increasing trend towards organic and minimally processed foods.

Expeller-pressed rapeseed oil, on the other hand, involves pressing the rapeseed at slightly higher temperatures than cold-pressing. This method yields more oil but retains significant nutritional benefits. The balance between efficiency and quality makes expeller-pressed oil a popular choice among both household users and the food industry. This segment is expected to witness substantial growth due to its cos

Data on the production of the crushing of seed, oil and meal.

The Polish rapeseed oil market rose significantly to $1.5B in 2024, increasing by 7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, consumption showed a temperate expansion. Rapeseed oil consumption peaked at $2.6B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In 2024, the Asia-Pacific rapeseed oil market decreased by -14.7% to $13B, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. Overall, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The level of consumption peaked at $16.8B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Amid soaring cooking oil prices fuelled by inflationary pressures and geopolitical disruptions, oil and fat processors have experienced substantial revenue growth in recent years. However, the surge in costs for oilseeds has squeezed profitability. Price turbulence has mostly been the result of the Russia-Ukraine war, with Ukraine being the largest producer of sunflowers and sunflower oil in the world at 30% of total production, according to the USDA. Overall, industry revenue is projected to climb at a compound annual rate of 12.3% over the five years through 2025, despite an 8.2% drop in 2025 to €14.4 billion. Prices are finally slowing in 2025, causing an extended contraction in revenue, as global oilseed supplies stabilise. Sustainability and health consciousness are becoming key focal points for consumers and regulators. Processors are navigating these challenges by innovating and diversifying their offerings, such as developing oils with less fats. Refined oils, like sunflower, have seen a decline as health-conscious consumers have gravitated towards perceived healthier options like olive and cold-pressed rapeseed oils. In parallel, a stronger push for sustainable farming and production practices has seen producers modernise their equipment and streamline operations. Processors have adopted innovations in solvent-free extraction and green chemistry, aligning with both consumer expectations and regulatory demands. As biofuels become an integral part of France’s energy strategy, processors have new avenues for growth. The mandate for biofuel uses in transport fuels is set to climb gradually each year, boosting demand for vegetable oils. Industry revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.3% over the five years through 2030, reaching €16 billion. Nonetheless, stricter environmental policies, especially on palm oil, will likely reduce raw material availability, potentially increasing prices and straining profitability. Emphasis on sustainable practices remains a core theme, with consumers demanding transparency and for producers to have less of a negative impact on the environment. Unpredictable crop yields could provide some volatility in the future, especially if more conflicts arise in key farming areas.

Overview
The March edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES' latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities to 2022-23. The report provides commodity production and export forecasts.

It also includes articles and boxes that cover: Farm performance - broadacre and dairy farms; Australia's competitiveness in the fresh produce export market; Changes to China's grain policy; The Peru FTA; Market diversity of Australian wine exports; and, Trends in Australian cotton and horticulture production.

Key Issues

Commodity production forecasts • The gross value of farm production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent to $59 billion in 2017-18, reflecting an assumed return to average seasonal conditions, before increasing by 3 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The gross value of farm production nevertheless remains high. If realised, the forecast value of farm production in 2018-19 would be around 11 per cent higher than the average of $55 billion over the five years to 2016-17. ◦ The gross value of farm production is forecast to grow steadily over the outlook period to around $63 billion by 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars). Strong demand for livestock and some horticultural products, and improved productivity in cropping, are expected to support growth.

• The gross value of livestock production is forecast to increase by around 3 per cent to $29.6 billion in 2018-19, following a forecast increase of 2 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The value of lamb, wool and dairy production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 (as in 2017-18), driven by strong export demand (particularly from China). ◦ The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall slightly, as a decline in export prices offsets an increase in the volume of beef produced. Despite the fall in price, returns are well above the historical average and supportive of farm profitability.

• The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $31 billion in 2018-19, after a forecast decline of 11 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ The decline in 2017-18 follows record production of wheat, barley and canola in 2016-17 due to very favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat, coarse grains and canola production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Wheat yields are assumed to improve (and to be around trend) following the frosts, above average temperatures and dry conditions during the winter of 2017. Area planted to coarse grains is forecast to increase due to strong global demand for feed and rotational constraints to planting pulses. Canola production is expected to increase as prices become comparatively favourable to the low coarse grain and falling pulse prices.

Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $48.5 billion in 2018-19, slightly higher than the forecast $47 billion in 2017-18. • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.5 billion, after increasing by a forecast 5 per cent in 2017-18. • In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for canola (22 per cent), cotton (17 per cent), barley (12 per cent), lamb (9 per cent), wool (7 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), rock lobster (4 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (1 per cent). ◦ Forecast higher prices are a strong contributor to growth in export earnings. In Australian dollar terms, export prices of cotton (11 per cent), wheat (9 per cent), wool (4 per cent), barley (4 per cent), mutton (4 per cent), rock lobster (3 per cent), lamb (2 per cent) and cheese (1 per cent) are forecast to increase in 2018-19.

• Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (54 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal, cheese and mutton are forecast to be unchanged. ◦ The decline in export earnings for these commodities is driven by a fall in export prices. Prices for chickpeas (27 per cent), sugar (11 per cent) and wine (2 per cent) are forecast to fall due to increasing global supply and competition. Prices for beef and veal (3 per cent), live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent) and canola (1 per cent) are also forecast to decline.

• In 2022-23 the value of farm exports is projected to be around $49.6 billion (in 2017-18 dollars), 8 per cent higher than the average of $46 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. ◦ The value of crop exports is projected to be $25.2 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 2.4 per cent higher than the average of $24.6 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms. The value of livestock exports is projected to be $24.4 billion in 2022-23 (in 2017-18 dollars), 15 per cent higher than the average of $21 billion over the five years to 2016-17 in real terms.

Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions.

• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.7 per cent in 2018 and 2019. From 2020 to 2023 economic growth is assumed to average 3.6 per cent. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3 per cent in 2018-19 and over the medium term to 2022-23. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the forecast average of US78 cents in 2017-18. It is assumed to depreciate further to US74 cents in 2019-20 and remain at that level over the outlook period.

• On the supply side, agricultural production is assumed to be consistent with average seasonal conditions in Australia and globally. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles.

In February 2023, the price of rapeseed oil decreased by 12.9% to $1,696 per ton (CIF, Thailand) compared to the previous month.

The global blown vegetable oils market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing demand from diverse sectors like paints and coatings, greases and lubricants, and other specialized applications. The market size in 2025 is estimated at $850 million, projecting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is fueled by several key factors. The expanding paints and coatings industry, particularly in developing economies, necessitates high-quality, cost-effective drying oils, bolstering demand for blown vegetable oils. Similarly, the automotive and industrial sectors' reliance on high-performance lubricants is contributing significantly to market expansion. Furthermore, the rising consumer preference for bio-based and sustainable alternatives is positively impacting the adoption of blown vegetable oils, making them a preferred choice over traditional petroleum-based products. The market is segmented by type (blown rapeseed oil, blown castor oil, blown soybean oil, and others) and application, each demonstrating unique growth trajectories. Blown rapeseed oil currently holds the largest market share due to its versatile properties and relatively lower cost compared to other types. However, other types, such as blown castor oil, are experiencing significant growth due to their specific performance characteristics in niche applications. Geographic variations also exist, with North America and Europe dominating the market currently, although the Asia-Pacific region is projected to witness the fastest growth rate in the coming years due to rapid industrialization and increasing infrastructural development. The competitive landscape is marked by a mix of large multinational corporations and specialized manufacturers. Key players are engaged in strategic initiatives such as capacity expansion, research and development, and mergers and acquisitions to strengthen their market positions. However, price volatility in raw materials and stringent environmental regulations present challenges. The market faces potential restraints from fluctuating raw material prices and increasing environmental concerns. Manufacturers are actively investing in sustainable sourcing practices and developing eco-friendly production processes to address these challenges. The market’s future trajectory hinges on the continued growth of downstream sectors, the development of innovative applications, and the successful implementation of sustainable manufacturing practices. The adoption of renewable and eco-friendly solutions further fuels market growth, enhancing the long-term prospects of this industry.

The cultivation of cereals, pulses and oilseeds has faced a number of challenges in recent years, mainly due to the weather. Both sales revenues and the amount of inputs in the industry have been subject to strong fluctuations over the past five years. For example, high temperatures in 2020 led to a decline in grain harvests. However, industry players benefited at times from a higher revenue-cost difference. Good, high-quality harvests in 2021 and 2022, together with high wheat prices, ensured sales growth. Although the cost of fuel and fertilisers rose sharply in the short term due to the war, the industry was able to achieve a record profit in 2022 thanks to the high increase in turnover. For the current year, IBISWorld expects turnover to fall by 2.2% to 9.7 billion euros. However, industry turnover is still higher than in the years before the start of the war in Ukraine. In the period from 2019 to 2024, turnover grew by an average of 0.7%.In the current year, industry players are likely to benefit from the increasing harvest volumes of spring wheat, spring barley and oats as well as from the high prices on the global markets. The global market price for wheat has risen compared to the previous year, but is still below the pre-crisis level. However, there has been a decline in the rapeseed and total grain harvest in Germany. Industry players are in direct price competition with the Russian agricultural sector, although grain prices there have now stabilised. Sales revenues are likely to fall if they have not been hedged by forward contracts, although intermediate consumption is also expected to fall. The use of fertilisers and other inputs is likely to be significantly cheaper in 2024, as the cost of producing fertilisers is dependent on the price of gas, which is likely to be lower in the current year than in 2022 and 2023.In the period from 2024 to 2029, industry turnover is expected to grow by an average of 1.1% per year and should therefore amount to 10.2 billion euros in 2029. The structural change in the industry is likely to continue and lead to consolidation within the sector. Smaller industry players are likely to exit the market, while large companies will expand their production. In addition, increasing environmental protection efforts, such as the further revision of the Fertiliser Ordinance, are likely to pose a major challenge for the industry. In contrast, however, the cultivation of pulses is expected to increase as part of the protein crop strategy to promote more sustainable agriculture.

In 2024, the Dutch crude rapeseed oil market decreased by -23.4% to $470M, falling for the second year in a row after three years of growth. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a perceptible decrease. Over the period under review, the market reached the peak level at $647M in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global canola seed market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing demand for vegetable oils and biofuels. The market size in 2025 is estimated at $15 billion, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is fueled by several factors, including rising global populations necessitating increased food production, the expanding use of canola oil in food processing and consumer products due to its health benefits (lower saturated fat content), and the increasing adoption of canola as a sustainable biofuel source in response to environmental concerns. The Non-GMO segment is expected to hold a significant share due to growing consumer preference for natural and organic products. The modern trade channel dominates current sales, but e-retailers are experiencing rapid growth, indicating a shift towards online purchasing. Key players like Monsanto, DuPont, Syngenta, Bayer, and Dow are investing heavily in research and development to improve crop yields and develop genetically modified varieties with enhanced traits. However, the market faces constraints such as volatile commodity prices, climate change impacts on crop yields, and potential regulatory hurdles associated with GMO crops. The regional distribution of the canola seed market reflects global agricultural patterns. North America and Europe currently hold substantial shares, but the Asia-Pacific region, particularly China and India, is projected to witness significant growth due to expanding agricultural activities and rising consumption of vegetable oils. Strategic partnerships, mergers and acquisitions within the industry are anticipated to reshape the competitive landscape, furthering innovation and driving market consolidation. Furthermore, increasing focus on sustainable agricultural practices and traceability within the supply chain will also influence market dynamics in the coming years. The forecast period (2025-2033) presents ample opportunities for companies to capitalize on emerging trends and technological advancements within the canola seed sector.

Overview The June edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in March 2018. Overview • In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion. • An increase in global economic growth and declines in some global crop supplies are forecast to support average farm export unit values. • Downside risks to the Australian agricultural sector are the prolonged dry spell in some parts of Australia and economic and trade factors facing Australia'!!s key export markets. Commodity production forecasts • The value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent to $61 billion in 2018-19. The value of farm production is around 11 per cent higher than the 10 year average of $55 billion (in 2017-18 dollars). • The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The value of lamb and wool production is forecast to contribute strongly to growth in the value of livestock production in 2018-19 because of strong forecast price growth. The volume of dairy production is expected to increase modestly, despite rising feed costs after consecutive years of low prices for grain and hay. The value of beef and veal production is forecast to fall, as declining saleyard prices more-than offset increases in the volume of beef produced. • The value of crop production is forecast to remain unchanged at $31 billion in 2018-19. This follows an estimated decline of 8 per cent in 2017-18. ◦ In 2018-19 a change in the mix of grain crops is expected due to the combination of seasonal conditions, agronomic factors and relative prices. Delayed and inadequate autumn rainfall have reduced opportunities to plant canola and pulse crops. Prices of grains compared with prices of oilseeds and pulses are expected to add to incentives to plant barley and reduce canola and chickpea plantings. ◦ In 2018-19 the value of wheat and coarse grains production is forecast to underpin growth in the value of total crop production. Commodity export forecasts • Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 2 per cent from $48 billion in 2017-18. • The net decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of coarse grains, pulses and canola and increased domestic demand for grain. The pace of growth of international prices for beef and veal and other livestock products is also expected to slow as competition increases. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for chickpeas (down 59 per cent), coarse grains (36 per cent), canola (18 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), mutton (6 per cent) and rock lobster (1 per cent). Export earnings for live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged. • Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for cotton (up 18 per cent), lamb (10 per cent), wool (9 per cent), wheat (6 per cent), beef and veal (2 per cent), dairy products (1 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18. Assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. • On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. ◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 2.8 per cent in 2018-19. ◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US76 cents in 2018-19, slightly lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18. • On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be slightly below average. ◦ Seasonal conditions have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles. Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth.

Health-consciousness and sustainability have established themselves as increasingly critical pillars shaping the European Vegetable and Animal Oil and Fat Production industry. Oil and fat processors have been challenged with adapting to EU regulations favouring sustainable farming and production practices. Consumers' swelling health consciousness has also influenced product development and diversification. These shifts, coupled with sticky inflation, have curbed oil and fat sales. Over the five years through 2024, revenue is expected to decline at a compound annual rate of 2.0% to €85.2 billion, including a fall of 2.5% in the current year. In response to a surge in biodiesel imports from China, Europe's biodiesel industry (a major market for oil and fat producers) is navigating plummeting prices for advanced biodiesel, curbing their demand for vegetable and animal oils. Still, biofuel demand is expanding in Europe as green policies strengthen and environmental consciousness expands. Striving to meet burgeoning demand for environmentally-friendly products in countries like France and Italy, many companies, including France's OLVEA, have emerged at the forefront of this movement, producing eco-refined oils. Oil and fat processors will experience some relief from falling inflation, but will continue to contend with volatile supply costs and stringent regulations. Unstable weather conditions are set to impact crop yields across the globe, while stricter environmental policies will potentially squeeze out raw materials and hike up prices for oil and fat processors. Eco-consciousness will also spur innovative uses of animal fats. As the aviation industry explores biofuels made from animal fats to meet EU climate targets, short-term demand is set to surge. Over the next five years, revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 3.6%, to €101.6 billion in 2029.