Graph and download economic data for Equity Market Volatility Tracker: Macroeconomic News and Outlook: Interest Rates (EMVMACROINTEREST) from Jan 1985 to Oct 2025 about volatility, uncertainty, equity, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Index, Level (BOGZ1FL073164013Q) from Q4 1970 to Q2 2025 about mutual funds, equity, liabilities, interest rate, interest, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

The main stock market index of United States, the US500, rose to 6818 points on December 2, 2025, gaining 0.08% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has declined 0.50%, though it remains 12.70% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United States. United States Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

In 2025, ** percent of adults in the United States invested in the stock market. This figure has remained steady over the last few years and is still below the levels before the Great Recession, when it peaked in 2007 at ** percent. What is the stock market? The stock market can be defined as a group of stock exchanges where investors can buy shares in a publicly traded company. In more recent years, it is estimated an increasing number of Americans are using neobrokers, making stock trading more accessible to investors. Other investments A significant number of people think stocks and bonds are the safest investments, while others point to real estate, gold, bonds, or a savings account. Since witnessing the significant one-day losses in the stock market during the financial crisis, many investors were turning towards these alternatives in hopes for more stability, particularly for investments with longer maturities. This could explain the decrease in this statistic since 2007. Nevertheless, some speculators enjoy chasing the short-run fluctuations, and others see value in choosing particular stocks.

As of June 17, 2024, the most shorted stock was for, the American holographic technology services provider, MicroCloud Hologram Inc., with 66.64 percent of their total float having been shorted. This is a change from mid-January 2021, when video game retailed GameStop had an incredible 121.07 percent of their available shares in a short position. In effect this means that investors had 'borrowed' more shares (with a future promise to return them) than the total number of shares available for public trading. Owing to this behavior of professional investors, retail investors enacted a campaign to drive up the stock price of Gamestop, leading to losses of billions when investors had to repurchase the stock they had borrowed. At this time, a similar – but less effective – social media campaign was also carried out for the stock price of cinema operator AMC, and the price of silver. What is short selling? Short selling is essentially where an investor bets on a share price falling by: borrowing a number of shares selling these shares while the price is still high; purchasing the same number again once the price falls; then returning the borrowed shares at a profit. Of course, a profit will only be made if the share price does fall; should the share price rise the investor will then need to purchase the shares back at a higher price, and thus incur a loss. Short selling can lead to some very large profits in a short amount of time, with Tesla stock generating over one billion dollars in short sell profits during the first week of March 2020 alone, owing to the financial crash caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. However, owing to the short-term, opportunistic nature of short selling, these returns look less impressive when considered as net profits from short sell positions over the full year. The risks of short selling Short selling carries greater risks than traditional investments, and for this reason financial advisors often recommend against this strategy for ‘retail’ (i.e. non-professional) investors. The reason for this is that losses from short selling are potentially uncapped, whereas losses from traditional investments are limited to the initial cost. For example, if someone purchases 100 dollars of shares, the maximum they can lose is the 100 dollars the spent on those shares. However, say someone borrows 100 dollars of shares instead, betting on the price falling. If these shares are then sold for 100 dollars but the price subsequently rises, the losses could greatly exceed the initial investment should the price rise to, say, 500 dollars. The risks of short selling can be seen by looking again at Tesla, with the company causing the greatest losses over 2020 from short selling at over 40 billion U.S. dollars.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

Japan's main stock market index, the JP225, rose to 49553 points on December 2, 2025, gaining 0.51% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has declined 3.78%, though it remains 26.25% higher than a year ago, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Japan. Japan Stock Market Index (JP225) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December of 2025.

The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 5.50 percent. This dataset provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by October 29, 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic—both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S.—showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by August 2025, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2024, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Lumber and Wood Products: Softwood Cut Stock and Dimension (WPU08110503) from Jan 1987 to May 2025 about stocks, wood, commodities, PPI, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Venture capital (VC) and principal trading have been integral to the start-up ecosystem for many years, providing crucial funding for entrepreneurs and start-ups. The industry has undergone significant changes in recent years, benefiting from rising security prices, increased trading volumes, unprecedented investment opportunities and more merger and acquisition activity. The expanding adoption of technology and artificial intelligence across industries has further heightened demand for venture capital firms. VC and principal trading revenue will climb at a CAGR of 7.7% to $82.7 billion over the five years to 2025, including an expected increase of 4.3% in 2025 alone. Also, industry profit has climbed and will comprise 41.3% of industry revenue in the current year. The stock market has primarily been strong in recent years. Venture capitalists benefit from the high valuation on the exit of IPOs and acquisitions of successful start-up investments, while principal traders who are enjoying the continued appreciation of their assets will see capital gains on their portfolios. A heightened appetite for mergers and acquisitions, driven by a combination of low interest rates and corporate tax cuts early during the period, has also benefited venture capital firms. The jump in interest rates in the middle of the period hindered the number of mergers and acquisitions, but following the interest rate cut in the latter part of the period, merger and acquisition activity is set to climb. In addition, reduced rates will strengthen market liquidity and empower venture capital firms to expand their investments across a broader range of businesses and markets. VC and principal trading will continue evolving in the coming years, driven by technological advancements and economic changes. With the growth of environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing, there will be an increased focus on environmentally and socially responsible start-ups. Interest rate cuts and inflation subsiding will benefit leveraged traders and overall access to capital. In addition, modestly increasing disposable income and maintaining spending on research and development will boost revenue in the coming years, though at a slower rate. In addition, with the growing use of AI, venture capital firms will seek to invest in energy companies such as nuclear energy in order to fuel the energy demand for AI technology and data centers. Overall, venture capital and principal trading revenue will grow at a CAGR of 3.0% to $95.7 billion over the five years to 2030.

Stock and commodity exchanges can benefit from various sources of revenue, ranging from fees charged through the purchasing and selling of stocks and commodities to the listing of companies on exchanges with IPOs. Yet, this hasn't meant exchanges have been free of challenges, with many companies looking to more attractive overseas markets in countries like the US that embrace stronger growth. The most notable culprits have been ARM and CRH, refusing to put up with the increasingly cheaper valuations offered by UK stock exchanges.Stock and commodity exchange revenue is expected to boom at a compound annual rate of 13% over the five years through 2025-26 to £18 billion, including growth of 5.2% in 2025-26. Boosted by the London Stock Exchange Group's Refinitiv purchase in 2021-22, the growth numbers seem inflated. The industry saw ample consolidations, aided by MiFID II's initiation in 2018. However, M&As have slumped over recent years as a result of high borrowing costs and a foggy economic outlook. Interest rate cuts and growing confidence are set to facilitate a modest recovery over the two years through 2025, driving revenue growth and supporting profit of 25.7% in 2025-26. Exchanges have also capitalised on volatile markets, with nervous investors triggering sharp sell-offs amid a tense geopolitical backdrop with Trump’s tariff policies. Consolidation amongst the largest players has been frequent, ratcheting up market share concentration. This will also prompt smaller exchanges to target niche markets and potentially band together in networks or alliances to pool liquidity and strengthen bargaining power. Revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 4.7% over the five years through 2030-31 to £22.7 billion. Over the short term, sticky inflation and how aggressively the Bank of England cuts rates will incite volatility and fuel trading on exchanges, driving revenue growth. Geopolitical tensions also show no signs of cooling, with the potential for matters to even escalate, keeping markets edgy and increasing the likelihood of large market swings. The use of blockchain will become more prevalent, with major player, the London Stock Exchange Group, already introducing a blockchain-based infrastructure platform for private markets. These exchanges allow for 24/7 trading, lower settlement times, and often lower fees, which can attract retail and institutional participants, driving fee income.

The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, was created by the U.S. congress in 1938, in order to maintain liquidity and stability in the domestic mortgage market. The company is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), meaning that while it was a publicly traded company for most of its history, it was still supported by the federal government. While there is no legally binding guarantee of shares in GSEs or their securities, it is generally acknowledged that the U.S. government is highly unlikely to let these enterprises fail. Due to these implicit guarantees, GSEs are able to access financing at a reduced cost of interest. Fannie Mae's main activity is the purchasing of mortgage loans from their originators (banks, mortgage brokers etc.) and packaging them into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to ease the access of U.S. homebuyers to housing credit. The early 2000s U.S. mortgage finance boom During the early 2000s, Fannie Mae was swept up in the U.S. housing boom which eventually led to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The association's stated goal of increasing access of lower income families to housing finance coalesced with the interests of private mortgage lenders and Wall Street investment banks, who had become heavily reliant on the housing market to drive profits. Private lenders had begun to offer riskier mortgage loans in the early 2000s due to low interest rates in the wake of the "Dot Com" crash and their need to maintain profits through increasing the volume of loans on their books. The securitized products created by these private lenders did not maintain the standards which had traditionally been upheld by GSEs. Due to their market share being eaten into by private firms, however, the GSEs involved in the mortgage markets began to also lower their standards, resulting in a 'race to the bottom'. The fall of Fannie Mae The lowering of lending standards was a key factor in creating the housing bubble, as mortgages were now being offered to borrowers with little or no ability to repay the loans. Combined with fraudulent practices from credit ratings agencies, who rated the junk securities created from these mortgage loans as being of the highest standard, this led directly to the financial panic that erupted on Wall Street beginning in 2007. As the U.S. economy slowed down in 2006, mortgage delinquency rates began to spike. Fannie Mae's losses in the mortgage security market in 2006 and 2007, along with the losses of the related GSE 'Freddie Mac', had caused its share value to plummet, stoking fears that it may collapse. On September 7th 2008, Fannie Mae was taken into government conservatorship along with Freddie Mac, with their stocks being delisted from stock exchanges in 2010. This act was seen as an unprecedented direct intervention into the economy by the U.S. government, and a symbol of how far the U.S. housing market had fallen.

Key information about India Long Term Interest Rate

• India Government Securities Yield: 10 Years was reported at 6.63 % pa in Oct 2025, compared with 6.64 % pa in the previous month.
• India Long Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from May 1996 to Oct 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 13.96 % pa in May 1996 and a record low of 5.11 % pa in Oct 2003.
• Long Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Reserve Bank of India.

• In the latest reports, India Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: India: MIBOR: 3 Months was reported at 6.12 % pa in Oct 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Repo Rate) was set at 5.50 % pa in Nov 2025.
• India Exchange Rate against USD averaged 88.37 (USD/INR) in Oct 2025.

As of November 14, 2021, all S&P 500 sector indices had recovered to levels above those of January 2020, prior to full economic effects of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic taking hold. However, different sectors recovered at different rates to sit at widely different levels above their pre-pandemic levels. This suggests that the effect of the coronavirus on financial markets in the United States is directly affected by how the virus has impacted various parts of the underlying economy. Which industry performed the best during the coronavirus pandemic? Companies operating in the information technology (IT) sector have been the clear winners from the pandemic, with the IT S&P 500 sector index sitting at almost ** percent above early 2020 levels as of November 2021. This is perhaps not surprising given this industry includes some of the companies who benefitted the most from the pandemic such as ************** and *******. The reason for these companies’ success is clear – as shops were shuttered and social gatherings heavily restricted due to the pandemic, online services such shopping and video streaming were in high demand. The success of the IT sector is also reflected in the performance of global share markets during the coronavirus pandemic, with tech-heavy NASDAQ being the best performing major market worldwide. Which industry performed the worst during the pandemic? Conversely, energy companies fared the worst during the pandemic, with the S&P 500 sector index value sitting below its early 2020 value as late as July 2021. Since then it has somewhat recovered, and was around ** percent above January 2020 levels as of October 2021. This reflects the fact that many oil companies were among the share prices suffering the largest declines over 2020. A primary driver for this was falling demand for fuel in line with the reduction in tourism and commuting caused by lockdowns all over the world. However, as increasing COVID-19 vaccination rates throughout 2021 led to lockdowns being lifted and global tourism reopening, demand has again risen - reflected by the recent increase in the S&P 500 energy index.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Oct 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Snapshot img

Predictive AI In Stock Market Size 2025-2029

The predictive AI in stock market size is valued to increase by USD 1.63 billion, at a CAGR of 21.8% from 2024 to 2029. Increasing availability and integration of alternative data will drive the predictive AI in stock market.

Market Insights

North America dominated the market and accounted for a 33% growth during the 2025-2029.
By Component - Solution segment was valued at USD 329.80 billion in 2023
By Application - Algorithmic trading segment accounted for the largest market revenue share in 2023

Market Size & Forecast

Market Opportunities: USD 445.64 million 
Market Future Opportunities 2024: USD 1632.20 million
CAGR from 2024 to 2029 : 21.8%

Market Summary

Predictive AI in the stock market refers to the application of artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms and techniques to analyze historical market data and make predictions about future trends. This technology has gained significant attention in recent years due to the increasing availability and integration of alternative data sources and the advancement of generative AI and large language models for qualitative alpha generation. One real-world business scenario where predictive AI is making a significant impact is in supply chain optimization. For instance, a manufacturing company can use predictive AI to forecast demand for its products based on historical sales data, economic indicators, and other external factors.
By accurately predicting demand, the company can optimize its inventory levels, reduce carrying costs, and improve operational efficiency. However, the adoption of predictive AI in the stock market also presents several challenges. Data quality and overfitting are major concerns, as historical data may not accurately reflect future market conditions. Market reflexivity, or the phenomenon where market participants' actions influence market trends, can also make it challenging to make accurate predictions. Despite these challenges, the potential benefits of predictive AI in the stock market are significant, including improved risk management, increased operational efficiency, and enhanced investment strategies.

What will be the size of the Predictive AI In Stock Market during the forecast period?

Get Key Insights on Market Forecast (PDF) Request Free Sample

Predictive AI in the stock market is an evolving technology that leverages advanced algorithms and real-time analytics to identify trends and patterns, enabling data-driven decision-making for businesses. One significant trend in this domain is the integration of demand sensing technology, which improves accuracy by reducing false positive and false negative rates. For instance, model performance can be enhanced through algorithm performance improvements, feature engineering techniques, and model retraining frequencies. In the realm of supply chain optimization, predictive AI-powered forecasting plays a pivotal role in inventory control strategies. By monitoring data in real-time, businesses can implement automated ordering systems, ensuring stockout prevention and minimizing excess inventory.
This approach not only improves precision and recall but also enables better risk mitigation planning and compliance with data privacy regulations. Scalability testing and data quality management are essential aspects of deploying predictive AI models in the stock market. Hyperparameter tuning and error rate reduction are critical for maintaining model performance, while system monitoring tools facilitate predictive maintenance and performance benchmarks. By adhering to data governance policies, businesses can ensure the reliability and accuracy of their predictive AI models, ultimately leading to improved business intelligence and strategic decision-making.

Unpacking the Predictive AI In Stock Market Landscape

The market management employs advanced clustering techniques and predictive modeling to minimize lead time variability and enhance production planning. By integrating real-time data processing and scalable infrastructure, businesses can achieve significant improvements in inventory optimization and order fulfillment prediction. For instance, predictive models trained on model training datasets have demonstrated a 20% increase in demand prediction accuracy compared to traditional methods. Data security protocols are essential to safeguard sensitive stock market data. Predictive AI systems employ machine learning models, deep learning algorithms, and neural network architecture for model evaluation and classification. These advanced techniques enable real-time anomaly detection and statistical process control, ensuring risk assessment metrics align with business objectives. Cloud-based infrastructure and process automation tools facilitate seamless data integration pipelines, allowing for efficient supply chain analytics and stock level monitoring. P