Commodity Prices YoY in Australia decreased by 9 percent in July from -10.10 percent in June of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for Australia Commodity Prices YoY.

Reserve Bank of Australia Index of Commodity Prices y/y measures the weighted average change in commodity prices, in the reported month compared to the same month of the previous year. Each of the

El Índice de Precios de Materias Primas del Banco de la Reserva de Australia a/a mide el cambio medio ponderado de los precios de las materias primas en el mes reportado en comparación con el mismo

Australia's main stock market index, the ASX200, fell to 8662 points on August 1, 2025, losing 0.92% from the previous session. Over the past month, the index has climbed 0.75% and is up 9.05% compared to the same time last year, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Australia. Australia Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

澳洲储备银行商品价格指数年率y/y衡量了报告月份与去年同月相比商品价格的加权平均数变化。计算指标使用的每一个数值都有一定的权重。权重会不停地被修改。

A comparison of the Australian target cash rate and the overnight interbank lending rate shows that, after around a decade of being identical, the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led to the actual overnight lending rate being lower than the Reserve Bank of Australia's target rate. This means that banks are lending to each other at lower rates than the "official" interest rate. One reason for this is the that the Reserve bank has made money available to banks in several new ways over this period (such as repo agreements where banks can pledge assets for short term funds), increasing liquidity in the banking system. As of June 2025, the overnight interbank cash rate and the target cash rate stood at **** and **** percent, respectively.

The Finance sector's operating environment was previously characterised by record-low interest rates. Nonetheless, high inflation prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike the cash rate from May 2022 onwards. This shift allowed financial institutions to impose higher loan charges, propelling their revenue. Banks raised interest rates quicker than funding costs in the first half of 2022-23, boosting net interest margins. However, sophisticated competition and digital disruption have reshaped the sector and nibbled at the Big Four's dominance, weighing on ADIs' performance. In the first half of 2025, the fierce competition has forced ADIs to trim lending rates even ahead of RBA moves to protect their slice of the mortgage market. Higher cash rates initially widened net interest margins, but the expiry of cheap TFF funding and a fierce mortgage war are now compressing spreads, weighing on ADIs' profitability. Although ANZ's 2024 Suncorp Bank takeover highlights some consolidation, the real contest is unfolding in tech. Larger financial institutions are combatting intensified competition from neobanks and fintechs by upscaling their technology investments, strengthening their strategic partnerships with cloud providers and technology consulting firms and augmenting their digital offerings. Notable examples include the launch of ANZ Plus by ANZ and Commonwealth Bank's Unloan. Meanwhile, investor demand for rental properties, elevated residential housing prices and sizable state-infrastructure pipelines have continued to underpin loan growth, offsetting the drag from weaker mortgage affordability and volatile business sentiment. Overall, subdivision revenue is expected to rise at an annualised 8.3% over the five years through 2024-25, to $524.6 billion. This growth trajectory includes an estimated 4.8% decline in 2024-25 driven by rate cuts in 2025, which will weigh on income from interest-bearing assets. The Big Four banks will double down on technology investments and partnerships to counter threats from fintech startups and neobanks. As cybersecurity risks and APRA regulations evolve, financial institutions will gear up to strengthen their focus on shielding sensitive customer data and preserving trust, lifting compliance and operational costs. In the face of fierce competition, evolving regulations and shifting customer preferences, consolidation through M&As is poised to be a viable trend for survival and growth, especially among smaller financial institutions like credit unions. While rate cuts will challenge profitability within the sector, expansionary economic policies are poised to stimulate business and mortgage lending activity, presenting opportunities for strategic growth in a dynamic market. These trends are why Finance subdivision revenue is forecast to rise by an annualised 1.1% over the five years through the end of 2029-30, to $554.9 billion

호주 준비 은행 상품가격지수 y/y는 보고된 달의 상품가격 가중평균변동을 전년도 같은 달과 비교하여 측정합니다. 지표 계산에 사용되는 각 값에는 특정 가중치가 부여됩니다. 가중치는 때때로 수정됩니다

The Credit Card Issuance industry has contracted as the number of cards issued and balances accruing interest have fallen. Issuers have faced significant competition from other forms of payment like debit cards and BNPL services. The monthly value of debit card transactions has continued to surpass the monthly value of credit card transactions thanks to initiatives like the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) least-cost routing initiative. BNPL services have also gained popularity with younger consumers who constitute a significant market for online sellers. That's why revenue is set to weaken by an annualised 5.3% over the five years through 2024-25, to $7.6 billion. To compete with sophisticated competition, credit card issuers have beefed up their reward and referral programs and integrated online payment, service and customer acquisition platforms into their operations. The Big Four banks dominate the industry and NAB's acquisition of Citigroup's Australian consumer banking business has expanded its collective market share. Economic conditions tied to inflationary pressures have ravaged consumer sentiment and appetites for spending through credit. Some customers have opted to pay down debt instead and have avoided taking on more. A sharp climb in interest rates over the past few years has compounded this dynamic, which is set to constrain industry performance in 2024-25, with revenue declining by an anticipated 0.9%. Credit card issuers' performance will improve over the coming years as economic conditions recover. Credit card issuance revenue is projected to expand at an annualised 2.0% through the end of 2029-30, to total $8.4 billion. The RBA is forecast to slash the cash rate once inflation falls within the central banks' target band, lifting credit card issuer profit margins as funding costs drop. Alternative payment methods, like BNPL services, debit transactions and other fintech solutions, are on track to sap away demand for credit cards. However, easing inflationary pressures and lower interest rates over the medium term are set to spur household consumption expenditure and credit card use. In response to the fierce competition, issuers will emphasise innovation and enhance their rewards and points systems to entice consumers.

Disclaimer

All information presented here is for display purpose only, and may not be complete nor accurate. This information does not constitute a financial advice, and should not be used to make any investment decisions or financial transactions. This author rejects any claims for liabilities resulting from the use, misuse, or abuse of this information. Use at your own risk.

Motivation

Due to time zone differences between Australia and most of the rest of the world, Australians have the advantage of knowing what happened at markets elsewhere in the world, before the Australian market (ASX) is open in the morning, Sydney time.

This prior knowledge provides an excellent opportunity for arbitrage. In the hands of a savvy day-trader, or a shrewd long-term investor, this information gives you the advantage of predicting the ASX, and achieve potentially significant financial gains.

Method

For the ten years period from 1/7/2010 to 30/6/2020, the daily closing prices for 41 global market indicators are collected from various reliable public-domain sources. We checked the data for error or omissions and normalised all tabulated records in a format that facilitates further analysis and visulaisation.

Those 41 market indicators are what we consider significant measures of various external factors that may affect the performance of the Australian Stock Market, as represented by the ASX200. Those indicators are:

• Nine other major stock market indices from the USA, Europe, and Asia.

• The exchange rate of the $AU against 10 world currencies that are most relevant to Australia's international trade.

• Official interest rates by the RBA and the US Feds, as indicators of affinity of foreign funds to Australia.

• Yield rates for governments-issued bonds by 10 countries from Western and Asian economies, as measures of relative availability of credit and cross-border investment. Bonds are grouped into "Short-term" (one year maturity) and "Long-term" (10 to 30 years maturity).

• Since Australia's economy is mainly an exporter of raw materials, we include prices for commodities that are most traded by Australia, as indicators for potential profitability for various relevant sectors of the ASX.

We feed relevant data to a machine learning model, which uses this data to extract heuristic parameters that are used to predict the ASX200 on daily basis, before market opens, and validates predictions at market close, with favourable results.

For more information, please visit the Tableau viz at: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/yasser.ali.phd/viz/PredictingAustralianStockMarket/Story

The Foreign Banks industry includes domestic subsidiaries of foreign banks and branches of foreign banks, which have grown over the past few years as soaring interest rates contributed to a sharp revenue rise. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a relatively low cash rate over the past decade – especially in response to the pandemic – to stimulate economic activity. The low cash rate environment hampered foreign banks' revenue in the three years through 2021-22. In May 2022, this all changed when inflation rose quickly, leading to the fastest and largest hike cycle on record. These trends ensured a revenue explosion in the two years through 2023-24, especially after a decade of cheap money drove extensive private and corporate borrowing in Australia. Overall, industry revenue is expected to grow at an annualised 11.8% over the five years through 2024-25, to $45.6 billion. This includes an anticipated decline of 8.8% in 2024-25 as the RBA cut rates. Foreign banks are typically less exposed than domestic banks to the residential lending market and depend more on commercial lending because of the high number of foreign bank branches, with the noted exception of HSBC Bank, which has substantially grown its mortgage books over the past few years. Meanwhile, foreign bank branches increasingly lent to corporate clients despite a highly competitive market. These long-term trends allowed industry profit margins to heighten. Yet, as interest rates surged in 2022, so did foreign banks’ funding expenses. This weighed on profit’s proportion of revenue despite net earnings growth. Australian foreign banks’ outlook is more mixed over the coming years as interest rates gradually drop. Foreign banks are set to shift their focus towards ESG offerings like responsible lending, to satisfy consumer demand for green loans. In response to the fierce competition from lenders, including non-banks and fintech firms, foreign banks are set to splurge on technology to remain relevant. Funding costs will start easing as interest rates decline, causing profit margins to rebound. Overall, revenue is forecast to fall at an annualised 3.8% over the five years through 2029-30, to $37.8 billion.