Inspiration

Which countries have the most social contacts in the world? In particular, do countries with more social contacts among the elderly report more deaths caused by a pandemic caused by a respiratory virus?

Context

With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, reports have shown that the elderly are at a higher risk of dying than any other age groups. 8 out of 10 deaths reported in the U.S. have been in adults 65 years old and older. Countries have also began to enforce 2km social distancing to contain the pandemic.

To this end, I wanted to explore the relationship between social contacts among the elderly and its relationship with the number of COVID-19 deaths across countries.

Content

This dataset includes a subset of the projected social contact matrices in 152 countries from surveys Prem et al. 2020. It was based on the POLYMOD study where information on social contacts was obtained using cross-sectional surveys in Belgium (BE), Germany (DE), Finland (FI), Great Britain (GB), Italy (IT), Luxembourg (LU), The Netherlands (NL), and Poland (PL) between May 2005 and September 2006.

This dataset includes contact rates from study participants ages 65+ for all countries from all sources of contact (work, home, school and others).

I used this R code to extract this data:

load('../input/contacts.Rdata') # https://github.com/kieshaprem/covid19-agestructureSEIR-wuhan-social-distancing/blob/master/data/contacts.Rdata
View(contacts)
contacts[["ALB"]][["home"]]
contacts[["ITA"]][["all"]]
rowSums(contacts[["ALB"]][["all"]])
out1 = data.frame(); for (n in names(contacts)) { x = (contacts[[n]][["all"]])[16,]; out <- rbind(out, data.frame(x)) }
out2 = data.frame(); for (n in names(contacts)) { x = (contacts[[n]][["all"]])[15,]; out <- rbind(out, data.frame(x)) }
out3 = data.frame(); for (n in names(contacts)) { x = (contacts[[n]][["all"]])[14,]; out <- rbind(out, data.frame(x)) }
m1 = data.frame(t(matrix(unlist(out1), nrow=16)))
m2 = data.frame(t(matrix(unlist(out2), nrow=16)))
m3 = data.frame(t(matrix(unlist(out3), nrow=16)))
rownames(m1) = names(contacts)
colnames(m1) = c("00_04", "05_09", "10_14", "15_19", "20_24", "25_29", "30_34", "35_39", "40_44", "45_49", "50_54", "55_59", "60_64", "65_69", "70_74", "75_79")
rownames(m2) = rownames(m1)
rownames(m3) = rownames(m1)
colnames(m2) = colnames(m1)
colnames(m3) = colnames(m1)
write.csv(zapsmall(m1),"contacts_75_79.csv", row.names = TRUE)
write.csv(zapsmall(m2),"contacts_70_74.csv", row.names = TRUE)
write.csv(zapsmall(m3),"contacts_65_69.csv", row.names = TRUE)

Rows names correspond to the 3 letter country ISO code, e.g. ITA represents Italy. Column names are the age groups of the individuals contacted in 5 year intervals from 0 to 80 years old. Cell values are the projected mean social contact rate.

https://www.googleapis.com/download/storage/v1/b/kaggle-user-content/o/inbox%2F1139998%2Ffa3ddc065ea46009e345f24ab0d905d2%2Fcontact_distribution.png?generation=1588258740223812&alt=media" alt="">

Acknowledgements

Thanks goes to Dr. Kiesha Prem for her correspondence and her team for publishing their work on social contact matrices.

References

• The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
• Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data
• Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases (POLYMOD study)

Related resources

• My starter notebook
• http://www.socialcontactdata.org/
• https://www.kaggle.com/tsubasatwi/close-contact-status-of-corona-in-japan
• Facebook Data for Good Mobility Dashboard

#https://www.kaggle.com/c/facial-keypoints-detection/details/getting-started-with-r #################################

###Variables for downloaded files data.dir <- ' ' train.file <- paste0(data.dir, 'training.csv') test.file <- paste0(data.dir, 'test.csv') #################################

###Load csv -- creates a data.frame matrix where each column can have a different type. d.train <- read.csv(train.file, stringsAsFactors = F) d.test <- read.csv(test.file, stringsAsFactors = F)

###In training.csv, we have 7049 rows, each one with 31 columns. ###The first 30 columns are keypoint locations, which R correctly identified as numbers. ###The last one is a string representation of the image, identified as a string.

###To look at samples of the data, uncomment this line:

head(d.train)

###Let's save the first column as another variable, and remove it from d.train: ###d.train is our dataframe, and we want the column called Image. ###Assigning NULL to a column removes it from the dataframe

im.train <- d.train$Image d.train$Image <- NULL #removes 'image' from the dataframe

im.test <- d.test$Image d.test$Image <- NULL #removes 'image' from the dataframe

################################# #The image is represented as a series of numbers, stored as a string #Convert these strings to integers by splitting them and converting the result to integer

#strsplit splits the string #unlist simplifies its output to a vector of strings #as.integer converts it to a vector of integers. as.integer(unlist(strsplit(im.train[1], " "))) as.integer(unlist(strsplit(im.test[1], " ")))

###Install and activate appropriate libraries ###The tutorial is meant for Linux and OSx, where they use a different library, so: ###Replace all instances of %dopar% with %do%.

install.packages('foreach')

library("foreach", lib.loc="~/R/win-library/3.3")

###implement parallelization im.train <- foreach(im = im.train, .combine=rbind) %do% { as.integer(unlist(strsplit(im, " "))) } im.test <- foreach(im = im.test, .combine=rbind) %do% { as.integer(unlist(strsplit(im, " "))) } #The foreach loop will evaluate the inner command for each row in im.train, and combine the results with rbind (combine by rows). #%do% instructs R to do all evaluations in parallel. #im.train is now a matrix with 7049 rows (one for each image) and 9216 columns (one for each pixel):

###Save all four variables in data.Rd file ###Can reload them at anytime with load('data.Rd')

save(d.train, im.train, d.test, im.test, file='data.Rd')

load('data.Rd')

#each image is a vector of 96*96 pixels (96*96 = 9216). #convert these 9216 integers into a 96x96 matrix: im <- matrix(data=rev(im.train[1,]), nrow=96, ncol=96)

#im.train[1,] returns the first row of im.train, which corresponds to the first training image. #rev reverse the resulting vector to match the interpretation of R's image function #(which expects the origin to be in the lower left corner).

#To visualize the image we use R's image function: image(1:96, 1:96, im, col=gray((0:255)/255))

#Let’s color the coordinates for the eyes and nose points(96-d.train$nose_tip_x[1], 96-d.train$nose_tip_y[1], col="red") points(96-d.train$left_eye_center_x[1], 96-d.train$left_eye_center_y[1], col="blue") points(96-d.train$right_eye_center_x[1], 96-d.train$right_eye_center_y[1], col="green")

#Another good check is to see how variable is our data. #For example, where are the centers of each nose in the 7049 images? (this takes a while to run): for(i in 1:nrow(d.train)) { points(96-d.train$nose_tip_x[i], 96-d.train$nose_tip_y[i], col="red") }

#there are quite a few outliers -- they could be labeling errors. Looking at one extreme example we get this: #In this case there's no labeling error, but this shows that not all faces are centralized idx <- which.max(d.train$nose_tip_x) im <- matrix(data=rev(im.train[idx,]), nrow=96, ncol=96) image(1:96, 1:96, im, col=gray((0:255)/255)) points(96-d.train$nose_tip_x[idx], 96-d.train$nose_tip_y[idx], col="red")

#One of the simplest things to try is to compute the mean of the coordinates of each keypoint in the training set and use that as a prediction for all images colMeans(d.train, na.rm=T)

#To build a submission file we need to apply these computed coordinates to the test instances: p <- matrix(data=colMeans(d.train, na.rm=T), nrow=nrow(d.test), ncol=ncol(d.train), byrow=T) colnames(p) <- names(d.train) predictions <- data.frame(ImageId = 1:nrow(d.test), p) head(predictions)

#The expected submission format has one one keypoint per row, but we can easily get that with the help of the reshape2 library:

install.packages('reshape2')

library(...

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