This dataset consists of an ensemble of model projections from 1901 to 2299 for the northern hemisphere permafrost domain. The model projections include monthly average values for a common set of diagnostic outputs at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degrees latitude and longitude. The model simulations resulted from a synthesis effort organized by the Permafrost Carbon Network to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the carbon cycle in permafrost regions in the high northern latitudes. The model teams used different historical input weather data, but most used driver data developed by the Climate Research Unit - National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CRUNCEP) as modified for the Multiscale Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP). The teams scaled the driver data for the projections using output from global climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The synthesis evaluated the terrestrial carbon cycle in the modern era and projected future emissions of carbon under two climate warming scenarios: Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP45 and RCP85) from CMIP5. RCP45 represents emissions resulting in a global climate close to the target climate in the Paris Accord. RCP85 represents unconstrained greenhouse gas emissions.

We integrated recent climate model projections developed for the State of Hawai’i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax) and mean precipitation (Pmean) data at 250 m resolution. We used observation-based data for the baseline bioclimatic variables from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawai’i. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled future projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We summarized the monthly data from these two projections into a suite of 19 bioclimatic variables that provide detailed information about annual and seasonal mean climatic conditions specifically for the Hawaiian Islands. These bioclimatic variables are available state-wide for three climate scenarios: baseline climate (1990-2009) and future climate (2080-2099) under RCP 4.5 (IPRC projections only) and RCP 8.5 (both IPRC and NCAR projections). As Hawai’i is characterized by two 6-month seasons, we also provide mean seasonal variables for all scenarios based on the dry (May-October) and wet (November-April) seasonality of Hawaiian climate.

This catalogue entry provides daily climate projections on pressure levels from a large number of experiments, models, members and time periods computed in the framework of fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The term "pressure levels" is used to express that the variables were computed at multiple vertical levels, which may differ in number and location among the different models. CMIP5 data are used extensively in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports (the latest one is IPCC AR5, which was published in 2014). The use of these data is mostly aimed at:

addressing outstanding scientific questions that arose as part of the IPCC reporting process; improving the understanding of the climate system; providing estimates of future climate change and related uncertainties; providing input data for the adaptation to the climate change; examining climate predictability and exploring the ability of models to predict climate on decadal time scales; evaluating how realistic the different models are in simulating the recent past.

The term "experiments" refers to the three main categories of CMIP5 simulations:

Historical experiments which cover the period where modern climate observations exist. These experiments show how the GCMs performs for the past climate and can be used as a reference period for comparison with scenario runs for the future. The period covered is typically 1850-2005.; Ensemble of experiments from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), which prescribes the oceanic variables for all models and during all period of the experiment. This configuration removes the added complexity of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in the climate system. The period covered is typically 1950-2005. Ensemble of climate projection experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The RCP scenarios provide different pathways of the future climate forcing. The period covered is typically 2006-2100, some extended RCP experimental data is available from 2100-2300.

In CMIP5, the same experiments were run using different GCMs. In addition, for each model, the same experiment was repeatedly done using slightly different conditions (like initial conditions or different physical parameterisations for instance) producing in that way an ensemble of experiments closely related. Note that CMIP5 GCM data can be also used as lateral boundary conditions for Regional Climate Models (RCMs). RCMs are also available in the CDS (see CORDEX datasets). The data are produced by the participating institutes of the CMIP5 project. The latest CMIP GCM experiments will form the CMIP6 dataset, which will be published in the CDS in a later stage.

The US Global Change Research Program sponsors the semi-annual National Climate Assessment, which is the authoritative analysis of climate change and its potential impacts in the United States. The 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), issued in 2018, used high resolution, downscaled LOCA climate data for many of its national and regional analyses. The LOCA downscaling was applied to multi-model mean weighted averages, using the following 32 CMIP5 model ensemble:ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1, bcc-csm1-1-m, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC EARTH, FGOALS-g2, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-p1, GISS-E2-R-p1, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M.All of the LOCA variables used in NCA4 are presented here. Many are thresholded to provide 47 actionable statistics, like days with precipitation greater than 3", length of the growing season, or days above 90 degrees F. Time RangesStatistics for each variables were calculated over a 30-year period. Four different time ranges are provided:Historical: 1976-2005Early-Century: 2016-2045Mid-Century: 2036-2065Late-Century: 2070-2099Climate ScenariosClimate models use estimates of greenhouse gas concentrations to predict overall change. These difference scenarios are called the Relative Concentration Pathways. Two different RCPs are presented here: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The number indicates the amount of radiative forcing(watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but RCP 4.5 aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement, while RCP 8.5 is aligns with a more "business as usual" approach. Detailed documentation and the original data from USGCRP, processed by NOAA's National Climate Assessment Technical Support Unit at the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, can be accessed from the NCA Atlas. Variable DefinitionsCooling Degree Days: Cooling degree days (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 65°F) [degree days (degF)]Consecutive Dry Days: Annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (days with total precipitation less than 0.01 inches)Consecutive Dry Days Jan Jul Aug: Summer maximum number of consecutive dry days (days with total precipitation less than 0.01 inches in June, July, and August)Consecutive Wet Days: Annual maximum number of consecutive wet days (days with total precipitation greater than or equal to 0.01 inches)First Freeze Day: Date of the first fall freeze (annual first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the fall)Growing Degree Days: Growing degree days, base 50 (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 50°F) [degree days (degF)]Growing Degree Days Modified: Modified growing degree days, base 50 (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is greater than 50°F; before calculating the daily average temperatures, daily maximum temperatures above 86°F and daily minimum temperatures below 50°F are set to those values) [degree days (degF)]growing-season: Length of the growing (frost-free) season (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the fall)Growing Season 28F: Length of the growing season, 28°F threshold (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 28°F in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 28°F in the fall)Growing Season 41F: Length of the growing season, 41°F threshold (the number of days between the last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 41°F in the spring and the first occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 41°F in the fall)Heating Degree Days: Heating degree days (annual cumulative number of degrees by which the daily average temperature is less than 65°F) [degree days (degF)]Last Freeze Day: Date of the last spring freeze (annual last occurrence of a minimum temperature at or below 32degF in the spring)Precip Above 99th pctl: Annual total precipitation for all days exceeding the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005 [inches]Precip Annual Total: Annual total precipitation [inches]Precip Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with precipitation exceeding the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005 [inches]Precip 1in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 1 inchPrecip 2in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 2 inchesPrecip 3in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 3 inchesPrecip 4in: Annual number of days with total precipitation greater than 4 inchesPrecip Max 1 Day: Annual highest precipitation total for a single day [inches]Precip Max 5 Day: Annual highest precipitation total over a 5-day period [inches]Daily Avg Temperature: Daily average temperature [degF]Daily Max Temperature: Daily maximum temperature [degF]Temp Max Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with maximum temperature greater than the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Temp Max Days Below 1st pctl: Annual number of days with maximum temperature lower than the 1st percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Days Above 100F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 100degFDays Above 105F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 105degFDays Above 110F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 110degFDays Above 115F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 115degFTemp Max 1 Day: Annual single highest maximum temperature [degF]Days Above 32F: Annual number of icing days (days with a maximum temperature less than 32degF)Temp Max 5 Day: Annual highest maximum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]Days Above 86F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 86degFDays Above 90F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 90degFDays Above 95F: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 95degFTemp Min: Daily minimum temperature [degF]Temp Min Days Above 75F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 75degFTemp Min Days Above 80F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 80degFTemp Min Days Above 85F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 85degFTemp Min Days Above 90F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 90degFTemp Min Days Above 99th pctl: Annual number of days with minimum temperature greater than the 99th percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Temp Min Days Below 1st pctl: Annual number of days with minimum temperature lower than the 1st percentile, calculated with reference to 1976-2005Temp Min Days Below 28F: Annual number of days with a minimum temperature less than 28degFTemp Min Max 5 Day: Annual highest minimum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]Temp Min 1 Day: Annual single lowest minimum temperature [degF]Temp Min 32F: Annual number of frost days (days with a minimum temperature less than 32degF)Temp Min 5 Day: Annual lowest minimum temperature averaged over a 5-day period [degF]For For freeze-related variables:The first fall freeze is defined as the date of the first occurrence of 32degF or lower in the nine months starting midnight August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 32degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.No freeze occurrence, value = 999The last spring freeze is defined as the date of the last occurrence of 32degF or lower in the nine months prior to midnight August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 32degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.No freeze occurrence, value = 999The growing season is defined as the number of days between the last occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower in the nine months prior to midnight August 1 and the first occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower in the nine months starting August 1. Grid points with more than 10 of the 30 years not experiencing an occurrence of 28degF/32degF/41degF or lower are excluded from the analysis.No freeze occurrence, value = 999

Recommended citation

Article citation will be added once the article is available.

Content

• Use of the dataset and full description
• Abstract
• Support
• Files included in the dataset
• Notes
• Data format description (columns)
• Data sources
• Changelog
• References

Use of the dataset and full description

Before using the dataset, please read this document and the article describing the methodology, especially the "Discussion and limitations" section.

The article will be referenced here as soon as it is published.

Please notify us (johannes.guetschow@pik-potsdam.de) if you use the dataset so that we can keep track of how it is used and take that into consideration when updating and improving the dataset.

When using this dataset or one of its updates, please cite the DOI of the precise version of the dataset used and also the data description article which this dataset is supplement to (see above). Please consider also citing the relevant original sources when using the RCP-SSP-dwn dataset. See the full citations in the References section further below.

Support

If you encounter possible errors or other things that should be noted or need support in using the dataset or have any other questions regarding the dataset, please contact johannes.guetschow@pik-potsdam.de.

Abstract

This dataset provides country scenarios, downscaled from the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) and SSP (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways) scenario databases, using results from the SSP GDP (Gross Domestic Product) country model results as drivers for the downscaling process harmonized to and combined with up to date historical data.

Files included in the dataset

The repository comprises several datasets. Each dataset comes in a csv file. The file name is constructed from dataset properties as follows:

The "Source" flag indicates which input scenarios were used.

• PMRCP: RCP scenarios downscaled using the SSPs: emissions and socio-economic data; scenarios are available both harmonized to historical data and non-harmonized.
• PMSSP: Downscaled SSP IAM scenarios: emissions and socio-economic data; scenarios are available both harmonized to historical data and non-harmonized.

the "Bunkers" flag indicates if the input emissions scenarios have been corrected for emissions from international shipping and aviation (bunkers) before downscaling to country level or not. The flag is "B" for scenarios where emissions from bunkers have been removed before downscaling and "" (no flag) where they have not been removed.

The "Downscaling" flag indicates the downscaling technique used.

• IE: Convergence downscaling with exponential convergence of emissions intensities and convergence before transition to negative emissions.
• IC: Regional emission intensity growth rates for all countries.
• CS: Constant emission shares as a reference case independent of the socio-economic scenario.

All files contain data for all countries and variables. For detailed methodology descriptions we refer to the paper this dataset is a supplement to. A reference to the paper will be added as soon as it is published.

Finally the data description including detailed references is included: RCP-SSP-dwn_v1.0_data_description.pdf.

Notes

If you encounter problems with the size of the csv files please let us know, so we can find solutions for future releases of the data.

Data format description (columns)

"source"

For PMRCP files source values are

• RCPSSP
• PMRCP
• PMRCPMISC

For PMSSP files source values are

• SSPIAM
• PMSSP
• PMSSPMISC

For possible values of

"scenario"

For PMRCP files the scenarios have the format

For PMSSP files the scenarios have the format

Model codes in scenario names

• AIMCGE: AIM-CGE
• IMAGE: IMAGE
• GCAM4: GCAM
• MESGB: MESSAGE-GLOBIOM
• REMMP: REMIND-MAGPIE
• WITGB: WITCH-GLOBIOM

"country"

ISO 3166 three-letter country codes or custom codes for groups:

Additional "country" codes for country groups.

• EARTH: Aggregated emissions for all countries
• ANNEXI: Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC
• NONANNEXI: Non-Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC
• AOSIS: Alliance of Small Island States
• BASIC: BASIC countries (Brazil, South Africa, India and China)
• EU28: European Union (still including the UK)
• LDC: Least Developed Countries
• UMBRELLA: Umbrella Group

"category"

Category descriptions.

• IPCM0EL: Emissions: National Total excluding LULUCF
• ECO: Economical data
• DEMOGR: Demographical data

"entity"

Gases and gas baskets using global warming potentials (GWP) from either Second Assessment Report (SAR) or Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

Gases / gas baskets and underlying global warming potentials

• CH4: Methane (CH₄)
• CO2: Carbon Dioxide (CO₂)
• N2O: Nitrous Oxide (N₂O)
• FGASES: Fluorinated Gases (SAR): HFCs, PFCs, SF₆, NF₃
• FGASESAR4: Fluorinated Gases (AR4): HFCs, PFCs, SF₆, NF₃
• KYOTOGHG: Kyoto greenhouse gases (SAR)
• KYOTOGHGAR4: Kyoto greenhouse gases (AR4)

"unit"

The following units are used:

• Million2011GKD: Million 2011 international dollars
• ThousandPers: Thousand persons
• kt: kilotonnes
• Mt: Megatonnes
• Gg: Gigagrams
• MtCO2eq: Megatonnes of CO₂ equivalents using the GWPs defined by "entity"
• GgCO2eq: Gigagrams of CO₂ equivalents using the GWPs defined by "entity"

Remaining columns

Years from 1850-2100.

Data Sources

The following data sources were used during the generation of this dataset:

Scenario data

• RCP scenarios website/data
• SSP basic elements website/data
• SSP IAM scenarios website/data
• SSP CMIP6 scenarios website/data

Historical data

• CDIAC data
• CEDS CMIP6 data paper/data
• EDGAR version 4.3.2: data, paper
• IMO GHG report report
• PRIMAP-hist v2.1 paper, <a

This catalogue entry provides monthly climate projections on single levels from a large number of experiments, models, members and time periods computed in the framework of fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The term "single levels" is used to express that the variables are computed at one vertical level which can be surface (or a level close to the surface) or a dedicated pressure level in the atmosphere. Multiple vertical levels are excluded from this catalogue entry. CMIP5 data are used extensively in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports (the latest one is IPCC AR5, which was published in 2014). The use of these data is mostly aimed at:

addressing outstanding scientific questions that arose as part of the IPCC reporting process; improving the understanding of the climate system; providing estimates of future climate change and related uncertainties; providing input data for the adaptation to the climate change; examining climate predictability and exploring the ability of models to predict climate on decadal time scales; evaluating how realistic the different models are in simulating the recent past.

The term "experiments" refers to the three main categories of CMIP5 simulations:

Historical experiments which cover the period where modern climate observations exist. These experiments show how the GCMs performs for the past climate and can be used as a reference period for comparison with scenario runs for the future. The period covered is typically 1850-2005. Ensemble of experiments from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), which prescribes the oceanic variables for all models and during all period of the experiment. This configuration removes the added complexity of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in the climate system. The period covered is typically 1950-2005. Ensemble of climate projection experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The RCP scenarios provide different pathways of the future climate forcing. The period covered is typically 2006-2100, some extended RCP experimental data is available from 2100-2300.

In CMIP5, the same experiments were run using different GCMs. In addition, for each model, the same experiment was repeatedly done using slightly different conditions (like initial conditions or different physical parameterisations for instance) producing in that way an ensemble of experiments closely related. Note that CMIP5 GCM data can be also used as lateral boundary conditions for Regional Climate Models (RCMs). RCMs are also available in the CDS (see CORDEX datasets). The data are produced by the participating institutes of the CMIP5 project. The latest CMIP GCM experiments will form the CMIP6 dataset, which will be published in the CDS in a later stage.

This series is composed of five select physical marine parameters (water salinity and water temperature for surface and near bottom waters and sea ice) for two climate scenarios (RCP 45 and RCP 8.5) and three statistics (minimum, median and maximum) from an ensemble of five downscaled global climate models. The source data for this data series is global climate model outcomes from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Stocker et al 2013).

The source data were provided in NetCDF format for each of the downsampled climate models based on the five CMIP5 global climate models: MPI: MPI-ESM-LR, HAD: HadGEM2-ES, ECE: EC-EARTH, GFD: GFDL-ESM2M, IPS: IPSL-CM5A-MR. The data included monthly mean, maximum, minimum and standard deviation calculations and the physical variables provided with the climate scenario models included sea ice cover, water temperature, water salinity, sea level and current strength (as two vectors) as well as a range of derived biogeochemical variables (O2, PO4, NO3, NH4, Secci Depth and Phytoplankton).

These global atmospheric climate model data were subsequently downscaled from global to regional scale and incorporated into the high-resolution ocean–sea ice–atmosphere model RCA4–NEMO by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (Gröger et al 2019) thus providing a wide range of marine specific parameters. The Swedish Geological Survey used these data in the form of monthly mean averages to calculate change in multi-annual (30-year) climate averages from the beginning and end of the 21st century for the five select parameters as proxies for climate change pressures.

Each dataset uses only source data models based on an assumption of atmospheric climate gas concentrations in line with either the IPCCs representative concentration pathway RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5. Changes were calculated as the difference between two multiannual (30 year) mean averages; one for a historical reference climate period (1976-2005) and one for an end of century projection (2070-2099). These data were extracted for each of the five downscaled CMIP5 models individually and then combined into ensemble summary statistics (ensemble minimum, median and maximum). In the Ensemble_Maximum/Median/Minimum_Rasters datasets, changes in mean (May-Sept) surface temperature and bottom temperature are given in Degrees Celsia (°C); changes in mean annual surface salinity and bottom salinity are given in Practical Salinity Units (PSU); changes in mean (October-April) sea ice are given in Percentage Points (pp).

In the Normalized_Rasters datasets, the changes are normalized using a linear stretch so that a cell value of zero represents no projected and a cell value of 100 represents a value equal to or above the mean change in Swedish national waters. The values representing 100 are: 4 °C for surface temperature; 3 °C for bottom temperature; -1.5 PSU for surface salinity; -2.0 PSU for bottom salinity; and -40 pp for sea ice. These were also the chosen reference values for determining, via expert review, the sensitivity of ecosystem components to changes in these parameters (for further information refer to the Symphony method).

Notes on interpretation. This dataset does not highlight inter-annual or inter-decadal climate variability (e.g. extreme events) or changes in biochemical parameters (e.g. O2, chlorophyll, secchi depth etc) resulting from change in surface temperature. Areas of no-data inshore were filled using extrapolating from nearby cells (using similar depths for benthic data) so data near the coast and particularly within archipelagos, bays and estuaries is not robust. Users should refer to the associated climemarine uncertainty map for this parameter. The uncertainty map shows the interquatile range from the climate ensemble and the area of no-data as 'interpolated values'. For any application which requires more temporally or spatially explicit information (e.g. at sub/national decision making) it is highly recommended that the user contact SMHI for access to the latest climate model source data (in NetCDF format) which contains much more detail and a far wider selection of parameters. For regional applications (e.g. at the scale of the Baltic Sea) - it should be noted that these data will likely require normalisation to regional rather than national values and that sensitivity scores used may differ.

ClimeMarine was selective in its choice of pressure parameters. SMHI have additional data available for other parameters such as O2, secchi depth and nutrients which could be included in future. This is complicated because many parameters are influenced by riverine discharge and therefore by decisions related to watershed management - disentanglement of impacts from climate vs river basin management becomes a complication. In a similar way, data on sealevel rise is also available which could be used to estimate impacts on the coast but likewise complicating factors such as isostatic uplift and coastal defence and management policies would need to be considered.

For simplicity and to reduce the amount of datasets to a manageable level for this assessment the source data were further limited and summarised in several ways:

Only the monthly mean averages of seawater temperature, salinity and sea ice (i.e. key physical parameters) were utilized.
For seawater salinity and temperature, the depth dimension (i.e. the water column) was summarised from 56 depth levels to just two: the surface and the deepest (bottom) waters.
Only two of the three climate periods were selected: a historical reference period: 1976-2005 (to represent the current status) and the projected end of century period: 2070-2099. Only two of the three available emission scenarios were selected detailing the consequence of intermediate and very high climate gas emissions : Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 (see SEDAC 2021).

Each dataset included in the series comes with extensive metadata.

The data processing followed the following steps:

Extraction of data for each parameter from NetCDF to TIFF Rasters for each model, emission scenario, depth level (using scripts in NCO, CDO and R). Calculation of climate ensemble statistics - Minimum, Mean, Median and Maximum (using Arcpy and Numpy)
Reprojection and resampling from the 2nm NEMO-RCO from Lat/Long WGS84 grid to the 250m ETRS89 LAEA Symphony grid (using Arcpy)
Extrapolation to fill no-data cells based on proximity and similar depths (using Arcpy script and the ArcGIS spatial analyst extension) Calculation of change for each parameter as the end of century multi-annual mean minus the reference multi-annual mean (using an Arcpy script)
Inversion of if negative (i.e. decreases) to positive (i.e. magnitude of change)
Normalisation as a linear stretch from 0 to 100 where zero equates to no change and 100 equates to the maximum pixel value in Swedish waters from the RCP 8.5 ensemble mean dataset with any values over this pixel value also set to 100 (Arcpy script)

NetCDF source data used in this analysis can be requested from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute - kundtjanst@smhi.se

Processing scripts (R and arcpy) and interim raster data can be requested from the Geological Survey of Sweden - kundtjanst@sgu.se

This catalogue entry provides daily climate projections on single levels from a large number of experiments, models, members and time periods computed in the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The term "single levels" is used to express that the variables are computed at one vertical level which can be surface (or a level close to the surface) or a dedicated pressure level in the atmosphere. Multiple vertical levels are excluded from this catalogue entry. CMIP5 data are used extensively in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports (the latest one is IPCC AR5, which was published in 2014). The use of these data is mostly aimed at:

addressing outstanding scientific questions that arose as part of the IPCC reporting process; improving the understanding of the climate system; providing estimates of future climate change and related uncertainties; providing input data for the adaptation to the climate change; examining climate predictability and exploring the ability of models to predict climate on decadal time scales; evaluating how realistic the different models are in simulating the recent past.

The term "experiments" refers to the three main categories of CMIP5 simulations:

Historical experiments which cover the period where modern climate observations exist. These experiments show how the GCMs performs for the past climate and can be used as a reference period for comparison with scenario runs for the future. The period covered is typically 1850-2005.; Ensemble of experiments from the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), which prescribes the oceanic variables for all models and during all period of the experiment. This configuration removes the added complexity of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in the climate system. The period covered is typically 1950-2005. Ensemble of climate projection experiments following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The RCP scenarios provide different pathways of the future climate forcing. The period covered is typically, 2006-2100 some extended RCP experimental data is available from 2100-2300.

In CMIP5, the same experiments were run using different GCMs. In addition, for each model, the same experiment was repeatedly done using slightly different conditions (like initial conditions or different physical parameterisations for instance) producing in that way an ensemble of experiments closely related. Note that CMIP5 GCM data can be also used as lateral boundary conditions for Regional Climate Models (RCMs). RCMs are also available in the CDS (see CORDEX datasets). The data are produced by the participating institutes of the CMIP5 project. The latest CMIP GCM experiments will form the CMIP6 dataset, which will be published in the CDS in a later stage.

This dataset includes global land use projections at 0.05-degree resolution under 15 SSP-RCP scenarios in the 21st century, produced by GCAM and Demeter and forced by five global climate models.

Morphed extreme weather data for 2 Finnish locations: Vantaa and Sodankylä. Created for "Near-, medium- and long-term impacts of climate change on the thermal energy consumption of buildings in Finland under RCP climate scenarios" publication (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131636). Used climate change scenarios are RPC2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Data is created for 2030, 2050 and 2080 and includes 6 extreme weather scenarios:

W1 - Winter with high heating demand

W2 - Winter with low heating demand

W3 - Winter with the coldest individual day by average temperature

S1 - Summer with the lowest cooling demand

S2 - Summer with the highest heating demand

S3 - Summer with the warmest individual day by average temperature

Selected years and the procedure for their selection are described in https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131636.

Original weather data is downloaded for the selected years from Finnish Meteorological Institute's Open data repository: https://www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/havaintojen-lataus under CC BY 4.0 licence.

Future change in climate is based on Finnish Meteorological Institute's data used in creating Test Reference Year weather files (https://www.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/energialaskenta-try2020) for which the climate change data is presented by Ruosteenoja et al. (2016).

The data is statistically downscaled through a method called morphing created by Belcher et al. (2005) with some parts using methods from Räisänen & Räty (2013) and Jylhä et al, (2015). Morphing was computationally conducted through created software https://github.com/japulk/Weather-Morphing-Tool For additional information please refer to original article or contact the authors.

Current predictions and projections of future sea-level changes are based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) class climate model simulations. Although this class of models is capable of simulating global sea-level rise and its basic spatial patterns, they are unable to robustly and accurately predict or project future regional and local sea-level changes because of their limitations in representing complex coastline and bathymetry features and regional ocean circulations with their coarse (approximately 100 km) horizontal resolutions. More specifically, sea-level changes within the Gulf of Mexico are closely linked to changes in the Loop Current and its eddies, which cannot be resolved by these CMIP-class models. To address this fundamental issue, we have completed two projections with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at a Tropical Cyclone-permitting and ocean-mesoscale-eddy-rich horizontal resolution (hereafter simply referred to as CESM-HR). The CESM-HR configuration is based on an earlier CESM version, CESM1.3, with many additional modifications and improvements. CESM-HR uses a 0.25 degree grid in the atmosphere and land components and a 0.1 degree grid in the ocean and sea-ice components. The primary reason for using an older model version, instead of the latest CESM2, is that CESM2 does not support a high-resolution version per the decision by the CESM Scientific Steering Committee. The component models within CESM1.3 are the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5; Neale et al., 2012), the Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2; Danabasoglu et al., 2012; Smith et al., 2010), the Community Ice Code version 4 (CICE4; Hunke and Lipscomb, 2008), and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4; Lawrence et al., 2011). Following the protocol for the CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments, the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP 2.6) and representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) were used to force the model from 2006 to 2100. RCP...

We calculated monthly vapor pressure values for the conterminous United States from 1950 to 2100 from global climate models (GCM) output published by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). These data include 28 GCMs under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios. Vapor pressure data were then downscaled from their original spatial resolutions to 30 arcsecond using a statistical downscaling method called Bias Correction-Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD). These monthly vapor pressure data are provided as separate NetCDF files for each year (1950-2100), each of 28 GCM's, and each scenario (historical, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5).Vapor pressure (VPR) is the amount of water vapor held in the air. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is the difference between the total amount of water vapor air can hold at a given temperature and the actual amount of water held, expressed as partial pressure of water. VPD exerts a direct effect on plant transpiration by controlling the opening and closing of stomata (REF). VPD values are relevant for simulating vegetation response to climate, estimating drought conditions, and to simulate wildfire dynamics. Spatial vegetation or fire models require VPD dataset in a gridded format, along with other climate variables. Thus, these data may be used as input for vegetation, fire, drought or earth system models.Package was originally published on 02/22/23. On 03/20/2023 a subset of the data were made available for immediate download. Metadata updated on 04/28/2023 to include reference to newly published article.

This data set comprises a rasterized (gridded) version of the of glacier point data from the Python Glacier Evolution Model (PyGEM) that include projections of glacier mass change, glacier runoff, and the various components associated with changes in mass and runoff.

This is an updated version of Gütschow et al. (2017, http://doi.org/10.5880/pik.2017.001). Please use this version which incorporates updates to input data as well as correction of errors in the original dataset and its first update. For a detailed description of the changes please consult the CHANGELOG included in the data description document. This dataset combines several published datasets to create a comprehensive set of greenhouse gas emission pathways for every country and Kyoto gas covering the years 1850 to 2015 and all UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) member states as well as most non-UNFCCC territories. The data resolves the main IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 1996 categories. For CO2‚‚ from energy and industry time series for subsectors are available. List of datasets included in this data publication:(1) PRIMAP-hist_v1.2_14-Dec-2017.csv: With numerical extrapolation of all time series to 2014. (only in .zip folder)(2) PRIMAP-hist_no_extrapolation_v1.2_14-Dec-2017.csv: Without numerical extrapolation of missing values. (only in .zip folder)(3) PRIMAP-hist_v1.2_data-format-description: including CHANGELOG(4) PRIMAP-hist_v1.2_updated_figures: updated figures of those published in Gütschow et al. (2016)(all files are also included in the .zip folder) When using this dataset or one of its updates, please also cite the data description article (Gütschow et al., 2016, http://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-571-2016) to which this data are supplement to. Please consider also citing the relevant original sources. SOURCES:- UNFCCC National Communications and National Inventory Reports for developing countries: UNFCCC (2017B)- UNFCCC Biennal Update Reports: UNFCCC (2016)- UNFCCC Common Reporting Format (CRF): UNFCCC (2016), UNFCCC (2017)- BP Statistical Review of World Energy: BP (2017)- CDIAC: Boden et al. (2017)- EDGAR versions 4.2 and 4.2 FT2010: JRC and PBL (2011), Olivier and Janssens-Maenhout (2012)- FAOSTAT database: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2016)- Houghton land use CO2: Houghton (2008)- RCP historical data: Meinshausen et al. (2011)- EDGAR-HYDE 1.4: Van Aardenne et al. (2001), Olivier and Berdowski (2001)- HYDE land cover data: Klein Goldewijk et al. (2010), Klein Goldewijk et al. (2011)- SAGE Global Potential Vegetation Dataset: Ramankutty and Foley (1999)- FAO Country Boundaries: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (2015)

Projected changes in total summer (Apr-Sep) precipitation for the 2050s, RCP 4.5. Geographic units: HUC10. These data are part of a set that includes historical (1970-1999) values plus two projections each for two future time periods, 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099), based on lower and higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. When rendered and displayed in Map Viewer (web map): Data classes and symbology by Robert Norheim, Climate Impacts Group, based on the CMIP5 projections used in the IPCC 2013 report. Data source: Mote et al. 2015.

Projected changes in total winter (Oct-Mar) precipitation for the 2080s, RCP 4.5. Geographic units: HUC10. These data are part of a set that includes historical (1970-1999) values plus two projections each for two future time periods, 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099), based on lower and higher greenhouse gas emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. When rendered and displayed in Map Viewer (web map): Data classes and symbology by Robert Norheim, Climate Impacts Group, based on the CMIP5 projections used in the IPCC 2013 report. Data source: Mote et al. 2015.

CHELSA CMIP5 projections of Future Percent Change (FPC) in precipitation, relative to a 1979-2009 reference period. All projections are for the future period 2061-2080.For example, a value of 1.6 indicates a 1.6% increase in rainfall for 2061-2080 under the given representative concentration pathway (RCP) and season, compared to the reference period (1979-2009).The file name indicates the RCP, and season of the projection shown. This is one layer of six, each showing projected future percent change in rainfall across Tutuila, American Samoa for a certain RCP, and season. All scenarios, and seasons are listed below: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs):RCP 4.5RCP 8.5Seasons:Annual (January to December)Wet Season (April to October)Dry Season (May to November)Projected rainfall data was sourced from CHELSA statistically downscaled CMIP5 projections (see required citations for data and accompanying publications below). If you’d like to know more about the processing steps taken to develop this layer, please visit the American Samoa Climate Data Portal’s Future Climate Projections Page Future Climate Projections – Hawaiʻi Climate Data Portal (hawaii.edu)CHELSA CMIP5 Dataset Citations:CHELSA Version 2.1: Karger D.N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R.W., Zimmermann, N.E, Linder, H.P., Kessler, M. (2018): Data from: Climatologies at high resolution for the earth’s land surface areas. EnviDat. https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.228.v2.1 CHELSA Version 2 and 1: Karger, D.N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R.W., Zimmermann, N.E., Linder, P., Kessler, M. (2017): Climatologies at high resolution for the Earth land surface areas. Scientific Data. 4 170122. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.122

IndicatorDescriptionWildfire, BaselineAnnual hectares burned, 30-year average for 1976-2005Wildfire, RCP 4.5 Mid-CenturyAnnual hectares burned, 30-year average for 2036-2065Wildfire, RCP 8.5 Mid-CenturyAnnual hectares burned, 30-year average for 2036-2065Wildfire, RCP 4.5 Late-CenturyAnnual hectares burned, 30-year average for 2066-2095Wildfire, RCP 8.5 Late-CenturyAnnual hectares burned, 30-year average for 2066-2095Source: Cal-AdaptData: Wildfire Simulations for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment, University of California, Merced + Wildfire Simulations Derived Products, Geospatial Innovation Facility - University of California, Berkeley.

Extreme heat data from Cal-Adapt. Includes baseline, mid-century, and late-century projections by 6km grid cell. IndicatorDescriptionExtreme Heat, Baseline95th percentile daily maximum temperature, 30-year average for 1976-2005Extreme Heat, RCP 4.5 Mid-Century95th percentile daily maximum temperature, 30-year average for 2036-2065Extreme Heat, RCP 8.5 Mid-Century95th percentile daily maximum temperature, 30-year average for 2036-2065Extreme Heat, RCP 4.5 Late-Century95th percentile daily maximum temperature, 30-year average for 2066-2095Extreme Heat, RCP 8.5 Late-Century95th percentile daily maximum temperature, 30-year average for 2066-2095Source: Cal-Adapt. Data: LOCA Downscaled CMIP5 Projections (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), Gridded Observed Meteorological Data (University of Colorado, Boulder).

We integrated recent climate model projections developed for the State of Hawai’i with current climatological datasets to generate updated regionally defined bioclimatic variables. We derived updated bioclimatic variables from new projections of baseline and future monthly minimum, mean, and maximum temperature (Tmin, Tmean, Tmax) and mean precipitation (Pmean) data at 250 m resolution. We used observation-based data for the baseline bioclimatic variables from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawai’i. We used the most up-to-date dynamically downscaled future projections based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model from the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). We summarized the monthly data from these two projections into a suite of 19 bioclimatic variables that provide detailed information about annual and seasonal mean climatic conditions specifically for the Hawaiian Islands. These bioclimatic variables are available state-wide for three climate scenarios: baseline climate (1990-2009) and future climate (2080-2099) under RCP 4.5 (IPRC projections only) and RCP 8.5 (both IPRC and NCAR projections). Aside from these typical bioclimatic variables, we also calculated annual and mean seasonal variables for all scenarios based on the dry (May-October) and wet (November-April) seasonality of Hawaiian climate. As Hawai’i is characterized by two 6-month seasons, we also provide mean seasonal variables for all scenarios based on the dry (May-October) and wet (November-April) seasonality of Hawaiian climate.