Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (USRECDP) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-03-24 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

This statistic shows the change in employment in the recent recession and recovery in the United States by gender. Between December 2007 and June 2009, employment among men plummeted by more than 5.3 million.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 1.20000 Percentage Points in July of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Unemployment Rate - 16-24 Yrs. (LNU04024887) from Jan 1948 to Feb 2025 about 16 to 24 years, unemployment, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for India from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (INDREC) from May 1996 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and India.

In October 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.43, a slight decrease from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recession; we also discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector toy model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Switzerland from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (CHEREC) from Feb 1960 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, Switzerland, and recession indicators.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in February of 1887. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USARECDM) from 1947-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

This release looks at the increase in unemployment during the recent economic downturn. Increases in unemployment will be compared across regions in the UK, age groups, gender and other characteristics. Claimant count data will also be included.

Source agency: Office for National Statistics

Designation: National Statistics

Language: English

Alternative title: Unemployment during the economic downturn

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Russian Federation from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (RUSRECD) from 1995-02-01 to 2021-08-31 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Russia.

The project adopted a broad approach, employing quantitative as well as qualitative methods. It covered both public and private forms of risk protection, and it analysed attitudes as well as actual behavior. First, we reviewed Britain's current 'mixed economy of welfare' in the aforementioned five key areas. We mapped the social programmes, occupational schemes and private options that have been available since the early 1990s. The second phase was based on quantitative data analysis, making use of the Family Resources Survey (FRS) and the ABI Risk and Protection Survey. We analysed the take-up of insurances and how it was influenced by attitudes and socio-demographic characteristics. Third, we conducted 61 qualitative interviews, where we explored personal risk management strategies of middle-income households from Scotland and England. The main result was a typology of risk management rationales that guide household economies. This stage also explored the ramifications of the recent financial uncertainties and economic downturn.

Comparing England and Scotland, the purpose was to review Britain's current 'mixed economy of welfare' in key areas: unemployment, sickness, costs of higher education for children, retirement and infirmity in old age. The aim was to map the types of statutory protection against such risks and contingencies and examine changes in the scope of public provision. In parallel, we will examine the scope of non-statutory (occupational and personal) provision, investigating how 'private welfare markets' have developed since the early 1990s. The second phase is based on quantitative data analysis of household savings and investment behaviour in insurances and private market-based contracts for risk protection. Finally, via qualitative interviews, we explore personal risk management of socially and economically similar families from Scotland and England. This stage will also explore the potential ramifications of the most recent financial uncertainties and economic downturn.

The project investigated risk management strategies of above average income households in England and Scotland. In the UK especially those with above average incomes are often assumed to have access to or seek private forms of risk protection, partly based on company provision or private voluntary protection complementing or substituting public social protection. The project investigated how households protect themselves against income loss due to unemployment, sickness or retirement and plan for expenses like long term care and higher education costs. We focused our analysis on how households balance these risks between public, occupational and private forms of protection. Moreover, we explored how the recent financial crisis has influenced the attitudes and behavior of households regarding their personal protection. The project sought to answer how and why some middle class households plan for contingencies and engage in private risk management strategies while others do not.

We investigate the macroeconomic consequences of fluctuations in the effectiveness of the labor market matching process with a focus on the Great Recession. We conduct our analysis in the context of an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and equilibrium search unemployment that features a shock to the matching efficiency (or mismatch shock). We find that this shock is not important for unemployment fluctuations in normal times. However, it plays a somewhat larger role during the Great Recession when it contributes to raise the actual unemployment rate by around 1.3 percentage points and the natural rate by around 2 percentage points. The mismatch shock is the dominant driver of the natural rate of unemployment and explains part of the recent shift of the Beveridge curve.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in February of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

During the Great Recession many incumbent parties were not confirmed in power by the ballots. The harsh law of the economic vote severely undermined their electoral chances. Yet it is unclear if they were punished by the absolute poor state of affairs, or by the relative deterioration of the economy; by a direct judgement of the domestic situation, or by its comparison with some external benchmark capturing more global dynamics; and whether or not the global crisis modified all these parameters. This exploratory analysis looks into all these issues using a dataset covering all the elections that took place in 38 democracies in the period 2000-2015, and contributing to the recent debate about the actual benchmarking of the state of the economy from behalf of voters. The Great Recession confirms its exceptional character, revealing that absolute reference points became more important than tailored benchmarks and short-term comparisons.