A recession is due in the U.S. in 2023, according to a majority of macroeconomists in a June 2022 survey. Opinions varied, however, on when in 2023 this new recession could start exactly. Most respondents - ** percent - believed the economic downturn most likely start in the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, ** percent said that it would begin in the latter half of that year. Most Americans thought differently on this topic, believing that the country was already experiencing an economic recession in June 2022. The macroeconomists cited both geopolitical tensions and the increasing costs of energy as the main reasons why pressure would remain on U.S. inflation.

Between ************ and *********, global recession fear went through periods of sharp increases three times. First, in the summer of 2019, due to an escalation in U.S.-China relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market. The second peak of worldwide recession fear took place in **********, as a result of the alarming jump in the rate of COVID-19 cases. The fear of recession started to increase sharply again in *************, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated.

In a November 2022 survey, over ************** of Republicans believed that the United States is currently experiencing an economic recession, as opposed to only ** percent of Democrats. In the same survey, approximately half of the respondents said that the best indicator of a recession was the prices of goods and services.

This dataset includes various economic indicators such as stock market performance, inflation rates, GDP, interest rates, employment data, and housing index, all of which are crucial for understanding the state of the economy. By analysing this dataset, one can gain insights into the causes and effects of past recessions in the US, which can inform investment decisions and policy-making.

There are 20 columns and 343 rows spanning 1990-04 to 2022-10

The columns are:

1. Price: Price column refers to the S&P 500 lot price over the years. The S&P 500 is a stock market index that measures the performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. This variable represents the value of the S&P 500 index from 1980 to present. Industrial Production: This variable measures the output of industrial establishments in the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. It reflects the overall health of the manufacturing industry, which is a key component of the US economy.

2. INDPRO: Industrial production measures the output of the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors of the economy. It provides insights into the overall health of the economy, as a decline in industrial production can indicate a slowdown in economic activity. This data can be used by policymakers and investors to assess the state of the economy and make informed decisions.

3. CPI: CPI stands for Consumer Price Index, which measures the change in the prices of a basket of goods and services that consumers purchase. CPI inflation represents the rate at which the prices of goods and services in the economy are increasing.

4. Treasure Bill rate (3 month to 30 Years): Treasury bills (T-bills) are short-term debt securities issued by the US government. This variable represents the interest rates on T-bills with maturities ranging from 3 months to 30 years. It reflects the cost of borrowing money for the government and provides an indication of the overall level of interest rates in the economy.

5. GDP: GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in a country. This dataset is taking into account only the Nominal GDP values. Nominal GDP represents the total value of goods and services produced in the US economy without accounting for inflation.

6. Rate: The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. It is set by the Federal Reserve and is used as a tool to regulate the money supply in the economy.

7. BBK_Index: The BBKI are maintained and produced by the Indiana Business Research Center at the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. The BBK Coincident and Leading Indexes and Monthly GDP Growth for the U.S. are constructed from a collapsed dynamic factor analysis of a panel of 490 monthly measures of real economic activity and quarterly real GDP growth. The BBK Leading Index is the leading subcomponent of the cycle measured in standard deviation units from trend real GDP growth.

8. Housing Index: This variable represents the value of the housing market in the US. It is calculated based on the prices of homes sold in the market and provides an indication of the overall health of the housing market.

9. Recession binary column: This variable is a binary indicator that takes a value of 1 when the US economy is in a recession and 0 otherwise. It is based on the official business cycle dates provided by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (MSCRECD) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about G7, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Recessions are periods of economic contraction having a significant impact on various industries. Typically, a recession is characterized by a significant decline in the gross domestic product (GDP) over a time period, leading to widespread unemployment, loss of income, and reduced business activity.

Here is a dataset of the monthly GDP of the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2022. Below are all the features in the dataset:

Time Period: Monthly time period GDP Growth: The growth rate of GDP every month As every decline in the GDP growth rate is not a recession, your task is to identify the months in which the UK faced a recession between 2020-2022.

Between the first quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2022, the relative probability of recession in G7 economies was the highest in the first quarter of 2020, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The risk of recession started to increase again in the first quarter of 2022, due to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Portugal from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (PRTREC) from Feb 1960 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, Portugal, and recession indicators.

According to a survey on the anticipated recession in the United States in 2022, ** percent of respondents stated that they were planning to spend less on discretionary purchases in order to be better prepared for an economic recession. Only *** percent of respondents said that they were saving more money for retirement.

Is the US headed into a recession? IBISWorld takes a look into key recession indicators by individual US industries.

Japan - Recession Indicators - Historical chart and current data through 2022.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Norway from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (NORRECM) from Feb 1960 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Norway.

View monthly updates and historical trends for US Recession Probability. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Track economic data…

Canada - Recession Indicators - Historical chart and current data through 2022.

In June 2022, a public opinion poll found that the majority of Americans currently believe the United States is experiencing an economic recession. In that survey, ** percent of respondents said that the U.S. is currently in recession and ** percent said the opposite.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (USARECP) from Feb 1947 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1947 and a record low of 0.00000 in October of 1949. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2026.

In May 2025, the Sahm recession indicator was ****, indicating no change from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by **** percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Due to the rising inflation rates worldwide in 2022, many consumers are of the opinion that we are entering a recession. This was most pronounced in the United Kingdom, where ** percent of the respondents strongly or very much agreed with the statement that we are entering a recession as of September 2022. On the contrary, less than a quarter of the respondents in China were of the same opinion. In total, around half of the respondents worldwide believed that we are entering a recession.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1993 and a record low of 0.00000 in October of 1993. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on February of 2026.