A recession is due in the U.S. in 2023, according to a majority of macroeconomists in a June 2022 survey. Opinions varied, however, on when in 2023 this new recession could start exactly. Most respondents - ** percent - believed the economic downturn most likely start in the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, ** percent said that it would begin in the latter half of that year. Most Americans thought differently on this topic, believing that the country was already experiencing an economic recession in June 2022. The macroeconomists cited both geopolitical tensions and the increasing costs of energy as the main reasons why pressure would remain on U.S. inflation.

Between ************ and *********, global recession fear went through periods of sharp increases three times. First, in the summer of 2019, due to an escalation in U.S.-China relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market. The second peak of worldwide recession fear took place in **********, as a result of the alarming jump in the rate of COVID-19 cases. The fear of recession started to increase sharply again in *************, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (MSCREC) from Feb 1960 to Aug 2022 about G7, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

In a June 2022 survey, more than half of Americans believed that the best indicator of whether or not the country is experiencing a recession was the prices of goods and services they buy. This response was given by ** percent of the respondents. A further ** percent felt that the unemployment rate and job reports are the best indicator.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (USARECM) from Feb 1947 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Greece from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (GRCRECP) from Feb 1960 to Jul 2022 about peak, trough, Greece, and recession indicators.

In May 2025, the Sahm recession indicator was ****, indicating no change from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by **** percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Germany from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (DEURECDP) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Germany.

View monthly updates and historical trends for US Recession Probability. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Track economic data…

According to a survey on the anticipated recession in the United States in 2022, ** percent of respondents stated that they were planning to spend less on discretionary purchases in order to be better prepared for an economic recession. Only *** percent of respondents said that they were saving more money for retirement.

Japan - Recession Indicators - Historical chart and current data through 2022.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (OECDEUROPERECM) from Feb 1960 to Aug 2022 about OECD Europe, peak, trough, recession indicators, and Europe.

Is the US headed into a recession? IBISWorld takes a look into key recession indicators by individual US industries.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

In June 2022, a public opinion poll found that the majority of Americans currently believe the United States is experiencing an economic recession. In that survey, ** percent of respondents said that the U.S. is currently in recession and ** percent said the opposite.

Canada - Recession Indicators - Historical chart and current data through 2022.

Due to the rising inflation rates worldwide in 2022, many consumers are of the opinion that we are entering a recession. This was most pronounced in the United Kingdom, where ** percent of the respondents strongly or very much agreed with the statement that we are entering a recession as of September 2022. On the contrary, less than a quarter of the respondents in China were of the same opinion. In total, around half of the respondents worldwide believed that we are entering a recession.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Japan from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (JPNRECDP) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and Japan.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1993 and a record low of 0.00000 in October of 1993. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

In a November 2022 survey, over ************** of Republicans believed that the United States is currently experiencing an economic recession, as opposed to only ** percent of Democrats. In the same survey, approximately half of the respondents said that the best indicator of a recession was the prices of goods and services.