By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and March 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

The Weekly Activity Index (WAI) of the German economy showed notable fluctuations between January 2021 and January 2025. It reached its lowest point at -0.81 percent in the 10th week of 2021 before experiencing a sharp increase, peaking at 1.4 percent in the 24th week of the same year. The index then declined significantly during the second half of 2021 but recovered slightly, ending the year at 0.36 percent. In early 2022, the WAI saw another significant drop and remained in negative territory until the 22nd week of 2023. Throughout 2024, the index continued to fluctuate markedly, displaying an upward trend in the first half of the year followed by a downward trend in the second half. What is the weekly activity index? The weekly activity index (WAI) is a weekly index designed to measure real economic activity in Germany. It is calculated as a common component from various indicators, such as industrial output, GDP, electricity consumption, credit card payments, and other high-frequency indicators. Positive values in the index indicates above average growth in real economic activity, while negative values signal a decline in economic output.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.697 % in Jan 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.972 % for Dec 2024. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.583 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Jan 2025, with 541 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 88.024 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 18 Mar 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 17 Mar 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 18 Mar 2025, with 62199 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 18 Mar 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S079: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

The economy of the United Kingdom shrank by 0.1 percent in January 2025, after growing by 0.4 percent in December. As of the most recent month, the UK economy is around 3.4 percent larger than it was in February 2020, just before the start of COVID-19 lockdowns. After a record 19.6 percent decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy quickly returned to growth in the following months, and grew through most of 2021. Cost of living crisis lingers into 2025 As of December 2024, just over half of people in the UK reported that their cost of living was higher than it was in the previous month. Although this is a decline from the peak of the crisis in 2022 when over 90 percent of people reported a higher cost of living, households are evidently still under severe pressure. While wage growth has outpaced inflation since July 2023, overall consumer prices were 20 percent higher in late 2024 than they were in late 2021. For food and energy, which lower income households spend more on, late 2024 prices were almost 30 percent higher when compared with late 2021. According to recent estimates, living standards, as measured by changes in disposable income fell by 2.1 percent in 2022/23, but did start to grow again in 2023/24. Late 2023 recession followed by growth in 2024 In December 2023, the UK economy was approximately the same size as it was a year earlier, and struggled to achieve modest growth throughout that year. Going into 2023, a surge in energy costs, as well as high interest rates, created an unfavorable environment for UK consumers and businesses. The inflationary pressures that drove these problems did start to subside, however, with inflation falling to 3.9 percent in November 2023, down from a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although relatively strong economic growth occurred in the first half of 2024, with GDP growing by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent in the first two quarters of the year, zero growth was reported in the third quarter of the year. Long-term issues, such as low business investment, weak productivity growth, and regional inequality, will likely continue to hamper the economy going forward.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (USRECDP) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-03-24 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

For 2024, various sources estimate that the Swiss GDP will increae by varying percentages. This is due to the hoped recovery from the recession expected in 2024.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 23 Mar 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 22 Mar 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 23 Mar 2025, with 62204 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 30 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 23 Mar 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S079: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in February of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data was reported at 0.986 Basis Point in Feb 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.885 Basis Point for Jan 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.572 Basis Point from Jan 1973 (Median) to Feb 2025, with 626 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.924 Basis Point in Nov 2008 and a record low of 0.563 Basis Point in Oct 1978. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S078: FRB Recession Risk.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany contracted 0.20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

As of January 29, 2025, the FTSE index stood at 8,557.81 points - well above its average value of around 7,500 points in the past few years.On the 12th of March 2020, amid the escalating crisis surrounding the coronavirus and fears of a global recession, the FTSE 100 suffered the second largest one day crash in its history and the biggest since the 1987 market crash. On the 23rd of March, the FTSE index saw its lowest value this year to date at 4,993.89 but has since began a tentative recovery. With the continuation of the pandemic, the FTSE 100 index was making a tentative recovery between late March 2020 and early June 2020. Since then the FSTE 100 index had plateaued towards the end of July, before starting a tentative upward trend in November. FTSE 100 The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, otherwise known as the FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 largest companies trading on the London Stock Exchange in terms of market capitalization. At the end of March 2024, the largest company trading on the LSE was Shell. The largest ever initial public offering (IPO) on the LSE was Glencore International plc. European stock exchanges While nearly every country in Europe has a stock exchange, only five are considered major, and have a market capital of over one trillion U.S dollars. European stock exchanges make up two of the top ten major stock markets in the world. Europe’s biggest stock exchange is the Euronext which combines seven markets based in Belgium, France, England, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal.

The economy of the European Union is set to grow by 1.5 percent in 2025, according to forecasts by the European Commission. This marks a significant slowdown compared to previous years, when the EU member states grew quickly in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic. Malta is the country which is forecasted to grow the most in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 4.3 percent. Many of Europe's largest economies, on the other hand, are set to experiencing slow growth or stagnation, with Germany, France, and Italy growing below two percent.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global 3D Metrology Market with Recession market size is USD 10198.3 million in 2024 and will expand at a compound yearly growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% from 2024 to 2031. Market Dynamics of 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market Key Drivers for 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market

Rising Use of 3D Data for Modeling and Analysis to Increase the Demand Globally - During recessions, industries increasingly rely on 3D data for modeling and analysis to optimize processes and minimize costs. 3D metrology facilitates accurate measurement and inspection, ensuring quality while reducing waste. As businesses seek efficiency enhancements, the demand for precise 3D metrology solutions grows. Leveraging advanced technologies for data-driven decision-making becomes imperative during economic downturns, propelling the market forward despite challenges, as it enables industries to maintain competitiveness and streamline operations. Rising Demand for QC and Inspection Applications in Automotive Sector Key Restraints for 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market High Initial Investments- High initial investments in 3D metrology equipment can limit market growth during recessions as companies may delay or reduce capital expenditures to conserve cash flow. Lack of Skilled Workers- The lack of skilled workers in the 3D metrology market during a recession constrains its growth potential as industries struggle to fully utilize advanced metrology technologies for quality control and process optimization. Introduction of the 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market The 3D metrology market, encompassing technologies like laser scanning, coordinate measuring machines (CMM), and optical digitizers, plays an important role in ensuring precision and accuracy across industries. Amid economic downturns, the 3D metrology sector tends to display resilience due to its indispensable nature in manufacturing, automotive, aerospace, and healthcare. During recessions, cost optimization becomes imperative, driving the demand for efficient quality control and inspection solutions provided by 3D metrology. Despite budget constraints, industries prioritize maintaining high standards to minimize rework and maximize productivity. Moreover, sectors like automotive and aerospace may experience shifts towards refurbishment and repair activities during downturns, further bolstering the need for precise measurement technologies. Consequently, the 3D metrology market, with its capability to enhance quality, reduce errors, and optimize processes, continues to exhibit steady growth even in challenging economic climates.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Hong Kong expanded 0.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

According to projections by a range of economic institutions, the economy of the Euro currency area is forecast to grow by between 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent in 2024. The Eurozone saw slow growth in 2023, when it grew by 0.7 percent - albeit this was significantly better than many economic forecasts which predicted a recession in the EU in that year. Across all the forecasts included, growth is expected to pick up in 2025, when the Eurozone's economy is expected to grow between 1.4 and 1.8 percent.

NBER based Recession Indi from the Peak Through the Trough在2025-02-09达0.000单位，相较于2025-02-08的0.000单位保持不变。NBER based Recession Indi from the Peak Through the Trough数据按每日更新，1854-12-01至2025-02-09期间平均值为0.000单位，共62162份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2020-04-15，达1.000单位，而历史最低值则出现于2025-02-09，为0.000单位。CEIC提供的NBER based Recession Indi from the Peak Through the Trough数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis，数据归类于Global Database的美国 – Table US.S076: NBER-Based Recession Indicators。

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of 0.1 percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from 0.75 percent to 0.25 percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at 0.1 percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to 2.25 percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching 5.25 percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2024, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates in an effort to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.