By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Context

This dataset was built using the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's State Coincident Indices and the Bry-Boschan Method for business cycle dating. In the tradition of Owyang, Piger, et al. business cycles are calculated on the state level which provides interesting analysis opportunities for looking at recession timing for different regions or sectors present in different states. The MSA level data utilizes the Economic Coincident Indices available on the St. Louis FRED website and uses a variant of the non-parametric algorithm described in Metro Business Cycles (Arias et al. 2016) to date MSA level recessions.

Content

This data is from 1982 through 2018 and includes whether the economy is in a recession or not, with forward looking and backward looking data available for observations as well. Additionally, various FRED St. Louis series were joined, like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Global Price of Brent Crude. The 2012 value added as a percent for different NAICS groups is included as well for sectoral analysis, although better data over time for this would prove beneficial. The industries file attempts to correct this, but has fewer years available.

Acknowledgements

Special thanks to the researchers at the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and St. Louis for collecting and making available much of the data that went into this dataset.

Inspiration

I was inspired by researchers that have attempted to take business cycle dating to the state and MSA level. Local business cycle dating methodologies allow for a more robust understanding of what goes into a recession and how sectoral composition can affect a state or MSA's "resilience" to recessions. This could have applications for weighting business cycle risk for companies based on geographic dispersion of customers, as well as local policymakers if local forecasting could be done successfully.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by *** percent and is expected to grow by just *** percent in 2025 and by *** percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to *** percent in 2027, and then grow by ***, and *** percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge *** percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by *** percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the *** percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from *** percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of *** percent predicated, up from *** percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be *** percent instead of *** percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent in Q3 and by *** percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

The experience of first Japan and now Europe and the USA suggests that Hansen's concept of secular stagnation is highly relevant. Recovery has been anemic and follows a generation of financially unsustainable and often lackluster growth. Investment demand has declined while the supply of saving has increased, leaving the economy vulnerable to liquidity traps. Although some US indicators have improved, forward real rates have declined sharply, European prospects remain muddled, and the zero-bound will likely constrain again during the next recession. Infrastructure and private investment are the best ways to both minimize the risk of secular stagnation and raise demand.

We provide a brief primer on how the core of usable macroeconomic theory for monetary policymakers has evolved over the past 50 years. Today’s policy discussions center on the New Keynesian (NK) synthesis, which builds on the Neoclassical growth model and the AS-AD framework. It incorporates nominal and real rigidities, financial and labor market frictions, the importance of expectations, and inspired terms used by policymakers such as “anchored inflation expectations” and “forward guidance.” While essential for communication during the Great Recession and COVID-19 pandemic, these events also revealed the NK model's limitations. Newer models incorporating heterogeneous agents potentially offer richer policy insights but add complexity and the challenge of distilling their main policy implications going forward.

The Covid-19 pandemic saw growth fall by 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent the year before. The last time the real GDP growth rates fell by a similar level was during the Great Recession in 2009, and the only other time since the Second World War where real GDP fell by more than one percent was in the early 1980s recession. The given records began following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, and GDP growth fluctuated greatly between the Great Depression and the 1950s, before growth became more consistent.

Explore the factors leading to a downturn in AI-linked tech stocks, with highlight on Nvidia's upcoming earnings and strategic industry shifts.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global 3D Metrology Market with Recession market size is USD 10198.3 million in 2024 and will expand at a compound yearly growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% from 2024 to 2031. Market Dynamics of 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market

Key Drivers for 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market

Rising Use of 3D Data for Modeling and Analysis to Increase the Demand Globally - During recessions, industries increasingly rely on 3D data for modeling and analysis to optimize processes and minimize costs. 3D metrology facilitates accurate measurement and inspection, ensuring quality while reducing waste. As businesses seek efficiency enhancements, the demand for precise 3D metrology solutions grows. Leveraging advanced technologies for data-driven decision-making becomes imperative during economic downturns, propelling the market forward despite challenges, as it enables industries to maintain competitiveness and streamline operations. Rising Demand for QC and Inspection Applications in Automotive Sector.

Accelerating product utility across other end-use industries to drive global market trends

Escalating product penetration in the defense industry will positively contribute to the growth of the perfluoropolyether (PFPE) market worldwide. Besides this, the booming commercial vehicle industry is expected to drive the demand for perfluoropolyether (PFPE) in the future. A major application of high-quality lubricants in automotive & electronics industry will adorn global market trends. With the applications of PFPE lubricants in leather, plastic, and paper, the demand for perfluoropolyether (PFPE) worldwide will grow lucratively in the foreseeable future. Exponential growth in air cargo carriage activities with growing air travel will escalate global market demand. Also, an increase in per capita income and cost advantage will spread the size of the global market. Introduction of environmental-friendly products and new products will introduce a paradigm shift to the global market. For instance, In May 2022, DuPont introduced MOLYKOTE® Multilub Synthetic High Performance Grease. (Source: - https://www.dupont.com/products/molykote-multilub-high-performance-grease.html ) The new product is expected to find a range of applications in gearboxes, springs, actuators, spindles, and centrifuge pumps.

Key Restraints for 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market

High Initial Investments- High initial investments in 3D metrology equipment can limit market growth during recessions as companies may delay or reduce capital expenditures to conserve cash flow. Lack of Skilled Workers- The lack of skilled workers in the 3D metrology market during a recession constrains its growth potential as industries struggle to fully utilize advanced metrology technologies for quality control and process optimization.

Key Opportunity of Market.

Miniaturization, environmentally friendly fluorochemistries, and aerospace uses can be an Opportunity.

Electronics and medical devices offer ample opportunities as PFPE facilitates lubrication of micro components without outgassing or residue as devices shrink and performance requirements rise. PFPE-based greases and fluids boast superior oxidative and thermal stability as 5G infrastructure continues to grow and wafer-level production intensifies. Satellite aerospace systems, spacecraft actuators, and vacuum-sealed mechanisms are increasingly relying on PFPE as well. An increasing focus on PFPE as a more secure fluorinated alternative to banned PFAS compounds aligns with industry sustainability initiatives. In addition, new business avenues are emerging in the domains of optics, 3D printing, and nanofabrication technological streams because of the advancements in PFPE-functional coatings, emulsions, and composite material additives. Introduction of the 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market

The 3D metrology market, encompassing technologies like laser scanning, coordinate measuring machines (CMM), and optical digitizers, plays an important role in ensuring precision and accuracy across industries. Amid economic downturns, the 3D metrology sector tends to display resilience due to its indispensable nature in manufacturing, automotive, aerospace, and healthcare. During recessions, cost optimization becomes imperative, driving the demand for efficient quality control and inspection solutions provided by 3D metrolog...

On October 29, 1929, the U.S. experienced the most devastating stock market crash in it's history. The Wall Street Crash of 1929 set in motion the Great Depression, which lasted for twelve years and affected virtually all industrialized countries. In the United States, GDP fell to it's lowest recorded level of just 57 billion U.S dollars in 1933, before rising again shortly before the Second World War. After the war, GDP fluctuated, but it increased gradually until the Great Recession in 2008. Real GDP Real GDP allows us to compare GDP over time, by adjusting all figures for inflation. In this case, all numbers have been adjusted to the value of the US dollar in FY2012. While GDP rose every year between 1946 and 2008, when this is adjusted for inflation it can see that the real GDP dropped at least once in every decade except the 1960s and 2010s. The Great Recession Apart from the Great Depression, and immediately after WWII, there have been two times where both GDP and real GDP dropped together. The first was during the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 until June 2009 in the US, although its impact was felt for years after this. After the collapse of the financial sector in the US, the government famously bailed out some of the country's largest banking and lending institutions. Since recovery began in late 2009, US GDP has grown year-on-year, and reached 21.4 trillion dollars in 2019. The coronavirus pandemic and the associated lockdowns then saw GDP fall again, for the first time in a decade. As economic recovery from the pandemic has been compounded by supply chain issues, inflation, and rising global geopolitical instability, it remains to be seen what the future holds for the U.S. economy.

This statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) in Italy from 1987 to 2024 with projections up until 2030. GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is an important indicator of the economic strength of a country. In 2024, the GDP in Italy was about 2.37 trillion U.S. dollars. See global GDP for a global comparison. Italy's economy After increasing significantly year-over-year, Italy’s gross domestic product (GDP) has gone through several fluctuations since the global economic crisis in 2008. The European Union’s third largest economy has experienced downturns, primarily due to inefficiency with regards to spending and incompetent leadership. When analyzing the country’s budget balance, which is essentially the overall difference between revenues and spending, Italy has posted a negative balance, or a state deficit, every year over the past decade. However, their budget balance has improved noticeably every year since 2009. Since the country spent more than they earned, national debt continued to rise every year, most notably between 2008 and 2009, and continued to do so going into 2014. Italy’s dependency on funding from other countries will lead to further debt, unless it finds a way to decrease spending or increase revenues. Despite the country’s ongoing recession, Italy’s GDP ranked the country in the top 10 countries with the largest gross domestic product in 2014, ahead of economically developed countries such as Canada and Australia. This implies that Italy’s economical struggles are more a result of inefficient spending rather than a lack of production.

Business service centers have experienced notable fluctuations in recent years, which have been influenced by shifts in e-commerce activity. E-commerce sales play a crucial role in driving demand for services like packaging, labeling and shipping, which comprise a significant part of the business service centers' portfolio. As consumer shopping preferences increasingly lean toward online platforms, these centers have adapted, expanding their offerings to complement the rising e-commerce demands. While the pandemic negatively impacted many industries, business service centers found resilience through this accelerated shift toward online shopping, causing revenue to expand in 2020. As the pandemic ended, growth in e-commerce sales slowed down as more consumers returned to physical shopping experiences, causing a slackening of demand for services tied directly to online sales. Despite this deceleration, steady technological advancements and the persistent appeal of online shopping have sustained a level of positive growth for the industry from 2021 onwards, raising providers’ profit. Revenue growth slowed in 2023 and 2024 as recessionary fears have caused companies to pull back on investing in business service centers’ products. This trend is expected to reverse as the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates, tempering recession concerns. Overall, revenue for business service centers has crept upward at a CAGR of 1.2% over the past five years, reaching $15.4 billion in 2025, including a 2.0% jump in revenue in that year. Looking ahead, the industry is poised for a dynamic shift influenced by emerging technologies and economic growth. As inflation moderates and interest rates decline, solid economic conditions will enhance demand for business service centers, bolstering revenue growth. The adaptation to digital solutions will continue, with larger providers leveraging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) to innovate their packaging and labeling services, which will become a more significant product segment as the need for print services declines. Outsourcing will expand as emerging markets offer cost-efficient service opportunities, enabling larger centers to further reduce operational costs. Nevertheless, smaller providers will need to specialize in niche services and optimize cost efficiencies to remain competitive. Overall, revenue for business service centers is forecast to swell at a CAGR of 2.9% over the next five years, reaching $17.7 billion in 2030.

This poll, fielded March 28 to April 02, 2008, is a part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked whether they approved of the way George W. Bush was handling the presidency and the economy, the most important problem facing the nation, and how much attention they were paying to the 2008 presidential campaign. Several questions addressed the economy and sought opinions on the condition of the national economy, the most important economic problem facing the nation, whether the United States was in an economic recession and whether the economy was getting better or worse. Registered voters were asked whether they were more likely to vote in a Democratic or Republican primary or caucus, which candidate they supported and why, who they expected to win the Democratic nomination, their opinions of the candidates, and for whom they would vote if the election was held that day. Views were also sought on Senator Barack Obama's former minister Rev. Jeremiah Wright's statements and whether his statements affected the respondent's opinions of Obama. Respondents were asked how concerned they were about several aspects of their personal finances including being able to afford health care, housing, and retirement costs, college tuition, and whether they were concerned about their job security. Respondents were also asked about their biggest economic concern, whether they were getting ahead financially, whether they had made cutbacks in their spending, and whether rises in food prices was affecting them. Additional questions asked respondents whether they had any close friends or relatives who filed for bankruptcy or had a foreclosure in the past year, whether they had any money invested in the stock market, and whether they thought investment in the stock market was safe. Other topics addressed the war in Iraq, the home mortgage crisis, estate and income tax, trade restrictions, and race relations. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, education level, employment status, marital status, whether respondents had children under 18 years of age, household income, political party affiliation, political philosophy, voter registration status and participation history, religious preference, frequency of religious attendance, and whether respondents considered themselves to be a born-again Christian.

The future of the European Union is a subject that can divide opinion. Some eurosceptic voices have been prophesizing the downfall of the bloc since at least the Eurozone crisis of the early 2010s and the UK's decision to leave the EU in 2016. On the other hand, federalists put forward the idea that European integration is once more moving forward towards "ever closer union", after Covid-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed the union into action on a number of key policy issues, such as with the Covid economic stimulus and the energy measures in 2022 to replace Russian oil and gas. What can be seen in recent polling of European citizens is that there is significant variation between member states and different regions in the EU. The future of the EU: the citizens' perspectives Countries such as Ireland, Austria, Denmark, Bulgaria, and Lithuania show very high levels of optimism towards the future of the union, with ** percent of Irish respondents being optimistic, the highest share for any member state together with Poland. These countries, while being diverse, share some commonalities, mostly being smaller member states with populations of around **** million or less (except for Poland), suggesting that European integration may be perceived as more necessary in some smaller countries. Conversely, Greece, France, and Cyrpus all have a majority of respondents stating they feel pessimistic about the future of the EU. Again, these countries defy being lumped into one narrative about what causes this attitude among their citizens. One unifying thread could be that they have all experienced economic problems since the global financial crisis, great recession, and Eurozone crisis, although these issues are much more prevalent in Greece and Cyprus than in France. As France is one of the major powers in the EU, the negative outlook of its citizenry may not bode well for European cooperation in the coming years, which requires French leadership along with other powers such as Germany, Italy, and Poland. On average, EU citizens were more optimistic than pessimistic about the future of the union in 2024.

The US Thrift Store industry has seen quite varying conditions recently, bouncing back from pandemic lows to becoming a go-to for budget-conscious and eco-conscious shoppers. Because of economic challenges like inflation and tariff pressures, the allure of secondhand shopping has grown. In 2025, thrift store revenue will expand modestly by 2.0%, hitting $14.1 billion. Profit remains strong, thanks to the industry’s reliance on donated goods pushing down purchase costs. As consumers face rising prices for new items, nearly half of Americans plan to shop secondhand, according to a BOE survey in January 2025. It's this blend of economic necessity and growing environmental awareness that's kept thrift stores’ performance strong. Over the past five years, thrift stores have thrived because of a wave of eco-conscious shopping. Millennials and Gen Z are leading the charge, embracing secondhand finds as a rejection of fast fashion's environmental toll. The pandemic's push for decluttering filled thrift inventories, while digital platforms posed competition and avenues for innovation. Thrift stores have had to adapt by building e-commerce platforms and leveraging social media to stay relevant. By spotlighting sustainability, they've captured a younger, trend-savvy audience. This evolution in consumer behavior broke the countercyclical pattern, showing that thrift stores aren't just recession-proof but also appealing during economic booms. Looking ahead, the thrift store industry faces a dynamic five years. Revenue's expected to climb at a slower CAGR of 1.6%, reaching $15.2 billion in 2030. As the economy improves, thrift stores grapple with a dual challenge: some consumers may turn back to traditional retailers, while others will remain loyal for sustainability and value. The strength of e-commerce platforms like ThredUp and Poshmark pushes thrift stores to innovate, integrating digital convenience with in-store experiences. By enhancing unique offerings and hosting engaging community events, they aim to attract a diverse demographic. With strategic pricing, technology integration and a focus on experiences, thrift stores are positioning themselves not just as a budget option but as leaders in sustainable retail.

Fitness Equipment Market size was valued at USD 13.13 Billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 191.82 Billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 46.50% from 2024 to 2031.

Global Fitness Equipment Market Dynamics

The key market dynamics that are shaping the global Fitness Equipment Market include:

Key Market Drivers:

Increasing Health Awareness and Obesity Rates: The increased concern about obesity and its associated health risks is encouraging more people to invest in workout equipment. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), global obesity has nearly quadrupled since 1975. In 2016, more than 1.9 billion adults were overweight, with over 650 million obese. This frightening trend is encouraging people to live better lifestyles, which include frequent exercise using fitness equipment.

Rise of Home Gyms and Remote Workouts: The COVID-19 epidemic has propelled the trend of home gyms and remote workouts, increasing demand for residential fitness equipment. According to a survey conducted by the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association (IHRSA), 76% of consumers began exercising at home during the pandemic, and 66% prefer a combination of in-person and at-home workouts moving ahead. This shift in consumer behavior is boosting demand for home exercise equipment.

Growing Geriatric Population and Focus on Active Aging: As the world population ages, there is a greater emphasis on maintaining health and mobility in later life. According to the United Nations, by 2050, one in every six persons worldwide will be over the age of 65, up from one in every eleven in 2019. This demographic shift is increasing the need for low-impact, senior-friendly fitness equipment. A study published in the Journal of Aging and Physical Activity discovered that regular exercise can reduce the incidence of falls in older persons by up to 23%.

Key Challenges:

Market Saturation: The Fitness Equipment Market is highly competitive, which leads to saturation. With so many brands selling identical products, differentiating offerings becomes tough. Companies must constantly innovate to catch consumer attention and maintain market share, which can put a burden on resources and reduce profitability.

Economic fluctuations: Economic downturns can hurt consumer expenditure on non-essential items, such as fitness equipment. During a recession, buyers may prioritize essential products over gym equipment, resulting in lower sales and greater inventory for producers, limiting growth and investment in new product development.

High Maintenance Costs: Many workout devices require frequent maintenance and servicing, which may dissuade customers. Maintenance-intensive equipment may cause user unhappiness and greater long-term costs, influencing purchasing decisions and brand loyalty in a competitive market.

Market Penetration in Emerging Regions: Expanding into emerging markets brings challenges due to differences in customer behavior, income levels, and infrastructure. Companies must modify their strategies and goods to satisfy the specific needs of various regions while negotiating diverse regulatory frameworks and distribution networks.

Key Trends:

Home Fitness Solutions: The growth of remote work and lifestyle changes has increased demand for home fitness equipment. Consumers want compact, versatile equipment that fits in smaller places, which has resulted in creative designs and solutions that meet home training needs while improving convenience and accessibility.

Sustainability Initiatives: Environmentally friendly workout equipment manufactured from sustainable resources is gaining popularity. Brands are increasingly emphasizing environmentally responsible manufacturing techniques to appeal to consumers who value sustainability. This trend increases brand loyalty and attracts environmentally conscious shoppers desiring products that reflect their ideals.

Recovery and Wellness Equipment: Foam rollers, massage guns, and stretching devices are all becoming increasingly popular. Consumers recognize the need for recovery in exercise routines, which drives demand for goods that promote relaxation, flexibility, and overall well-being.

Youth Fitness Engagement: As childhood obesity and health issues become more widely known, there is an increased emphasis on youth fitness equipment. Companies are creating interesting, engaging goods for children that encourage physical exercise and promote healthy habits from a young age, leading to lifetime fitness routines.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) In the Euro Area expanded 0.60 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Euro Area GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.