By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and August 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative **** percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at ***** percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of ** daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USRECD) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-08-25 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jul 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 11.70000 Percentage Points in January of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

The UK economy grew by 0.4 percent in May 2025 after shrinking by 0.1 percent in May. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 4.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

The U.S. dollar to Mexican peso reached its highest value in early 2020 but had declined before the end of that year. Between March 2 and May 28 of 2020, the Mexican peso lost approximately 11.4 percent of its value in comparison to the U.S. dollar due to the economic and financial recession originated by the COVID-19 pandemic. As of August 20, 2025, the exchange rate reached approximately 18.82 Mexican pesos.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

It is estimated that the cumulative market cap of cryptocurrencies increased in early 2023 after the downfall in November 2022 due to FTX. That value declined in the summer of 2023, however, as international uncertainty grew over a potential recession. Bitcoin's market cap comprised the majority of the overall market capitalization. What is market cap? Market capitalization is a financial measure typically used for publicly traded firms, computed by multiplying the share price by the number of outstanding shares. However, cryptocurrency analysts calculate it as the price of the virtual currencies times the number of coins in the market. This gives cryptocurrency investors an idea of the overall market size, and watching the evolution of the measure tells how much money is flowing in or out of each cryptocurrency. Cryptocurrency as an investment The price of Bitcoin has been erratic, and most other cryptocurrencies follow its larger price swings. This volatility attracts investors who hope to buy when the price is low and sell at its peak, turning a profit. However, this does little for price stability. As such, few firms accept payment in cryptocurrencies. As of June 25, 2025, the cumulative market cap of cryptocurrencies reached a value of ******.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2024, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates in an effort to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

The Consumer Sentiment Index in the United States stood at 64.7 in January 2025, an increase from the previous month. The index is normalized to a value of 100 in December 1964 and based on a monthly survey of consumers, conducted in the continental United States. It consists of about 50 core questions which cover consumers' assessments of their personal financial situation, their buying attitudes and overall economic conditions.

Graph and download economic data for Initial Claims (ICSA) from 1967-01-07 to 2025-08-16 about initial claims, headline figure, and USA.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator was 0.10000 Percentage Points in July of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator reached a record high of 9.43000 in June of 2020 and a record low of -0.40000 in September of 2021. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

The exchange rate history of the euro against the Canadian dollar reveals a steady increase since 2015, although several dips did occur. Since 2021, for instance, the EUR/CAD exchange rate steadily declined, with one euro being worth 1.61 Canadian dollars as of the end of August 20, 2025. This is not as sharp a decline as in previous years, however. Between 2009 and 2012, the exchange rate noted a sharp decline in value, with one euro being able to buy around 1.29 Canadian dollars. This sharp decline was most likely associated with the volatile changes brought to the financial markets by the global recession. Since 2012, the annual average euro to Canadian dollar exchange rate has recovered but remains lower than it was back in 1999.

United States - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in May of 1962 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1960. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in May of 1962 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1960. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for Four Big European Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

OECD based Recession Indicators for Russian Federation from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for Russian Federation from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1995 and a record low of 0.00000 in October of 1996. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for Russian Federation from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1993 and a record low of 0.00000 in September of 1993. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the Slovak Republic from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.