57 datasets found
  1. U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 24, 2025
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    Statista (2025). U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1239080/us-monthly-projected-recession-probability/
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 24, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Apr 2021 - Apr 2026
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

  2. T

    United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated May 19, 2019
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2019). United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-based-recession-indicator-index-fed-data.html
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    json, csv, xml, excelAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    May 19, 2019
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 11.70000 Percentage Points in January of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on October of 2025.

  3. F

    Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Sep 5, 2025
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    (2025). Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
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    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Sep 5, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Aug 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

  4. T

    United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Feb 9, 2020
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2020). United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/smoothed-u-s-recession-probabilities-fed-data.html
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    csv, xml, excel, jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Feb 9, 2020
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.80% in July of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

  5. United States: duration of recessions 1854-2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Jul 4, 2024
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    Statista (2024). United States: duration of recessions 1854-2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1317029/us-recession-lengths-historical/
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    Dataset updated
    Jul 4, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

  6. T

    United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession...

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Jan 25, 2019
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2019). United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/dates-of-u-s-recessions-as-inferred-by-gdp-based-recession-indicator-fed-data.html
    Explore at:
    excel, xml, json, csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jan 25, 2019
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in July of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1969 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1968. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

  7. F

    Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Jul 30, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHDUSRGDPBR
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    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 30, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

  8. T

    OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period...

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Dec 29, 2020
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2020). OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/oecd-based-recession-indicators-for-the-oecd-total-area-from-the-period-following-the-peak-through-the-trough-fed-data.html
    Explore at:
    excel, json, xml, csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Dec 29, 2020
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    OECD Total
    Description

    OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

  9. T

    NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through...

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Nov 22, 2020
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2020). NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nber-based-recession-indicators-for-the-united-states-from-the-peak-through-the-trough-fed-data.html
    Explore at:
    json, xml, excel, csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Nov 22, 2020
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on October of 2025.

  10. d

    Replication Data for: Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great...

    • search.dataone.org
    Updated Nov 22, 2023
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    Eo, Yunjong; Morley, James (2023). Replication Data for: Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession? [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/K3PRYB
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    Dataset updated
    Nov 22, 2023
    Dataset provided by
    Harvard Dataverse
    Authors
    Eo, Yunjong; Morley, James
    Description

    Eo, Yunjong, and Morley, James, (2022) “Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?.” Review of Economics and Statistics 104:2, 246–258.

  11. f

    Data from: Fiscal laxity or inflection? Fiscal policy in Roussef’s...

    • scielo.figshare.com
    jpeg
    Updated Jun 1, 2023
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    Emilio Chernavsky; Esther Dweck; Rodrigo Alves Teixeira (2023). Fiscal laxity or inflection? Fiscal policy in Roussef’s government and the economic crisis [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14319815.v1
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    jpegAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jun 1, 2023
    Dataset provided by
    SciELO journals
    Authors
    Emilio Chernavsky; Esther Dweck; Rodrigo Alves Teixeira
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    Abstract Fiscal policy played a leading role in the debate on the trajectory of the Brazilian economy in the first half of 2010 to explain the economic slowdown and subsequent recession, both in orthodox and heterodox contributions. Orthodox economics points to uncontrolled public spending as being responsible for the fiscal deterioration, which would have led to worsening agents' expectations and falling investments. Heterodox economics, in a roughly opposite interpretation, points to an inflection of fiscal policy that, reducing spending, particularly investment, at the beginning of the decade, would have compromised the policy-inducing capacity in a demand-led growth model. This article aims to empirically evaluate these explanations. In addition to a descriptive analysis of the data, we propose a vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine how the fiscal policy elements pointed out by each of the perspectives discussed here have affected economic growth. In particular, we aim to investigate whether they are able to explain the downturn and the recession in the period analyzed. The results indicate, contrarily to the orthodox view, that spending did not skyrocket compared to previous governments, and that movements in output tend to precede changes in the fiscal outcome. They also point to the importance of public investment in determining the pace of activity, confirming a central element of the heterodox approach. However, by revealing that up to 2014 public spending continued to grow, indicates the insufficiency of the heterodox thesis to explain the slowdown in previous years and the depth of the subsequent recession. Given this, we present additional explanatory elements to understand the period.

  12. T

    Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven...

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Sep 11, 2021
    + more versions
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2021). Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/oecd-based-recession-indicators-for-major-seven-countries-from-the-peak-through-the-period-preceding-the-trough-1-or-0-fed-data.html
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    json, excel, csv, xmlAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Sep 11, 2021
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    Group Of Seven (G7)
    Description

    Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough was 1.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Group of Seven (G7) - OECD based Recession Indicators for Major Seven Countries from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on October of 2025.

  13. g

    Oil and the United States Macroeconomy: An Update and a Simple Forecasting...

    • search.gesis.org
    Updated Jul 14, 2021
    + more versions
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    Kliesen, Kevin L. (2021). Oil and the United States Macroeconomy: An Update and a Simple Forecasting Exercise - Archival Version [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.3886/ICPSR23220
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    Dataset updated
    Jul 14, 2021
    Dataset provided by
    GESIS search
    ICPSR - Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research
    Authors
    Kliesen, Kevin L.
    License

    https://search.gesis.org/research_data/datasearch-httpwww-da-ra-deoaip--oaioai-da-ra-de447631https://search.gesis.org/research_data/datasearch-httpwww-da-ra-deoaip--oaioai-da-ra-de447631

    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    Abstract (en): Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect. A zipped package contains a programming syntax file (text format) and a Microsoft Excel file, which contains the data, tables, and corresponding figures used in the article.These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

  14. T

    NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period...

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated Dec 19, 2020
    + more versions
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2020). NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/nber-based-recession-indicators-for-the-united-states-from-the-period-following-the-peak-through-the-trough-fed-data.html
    Explore at:
    csv, xml, excel, jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Dec 19, 2020
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on September of 2025.

  15. High-Conviction 'No Recession' and Equity Rally Calls

    • bcaresearch.com
    Updated Sep 2022
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    BCA Research (2022). High-Conviction 'No Recession' and Equity Rally Calls [Dataset]. https://www.bcaresearch.com/
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    Dataset updated
    Sep 2022
    Dataset authored and provided by
    BCA Researchhttp://bcaresearch.com/
    License

    https://www.bcaresearch.com/general/disclaimer-2025https://www.bcaresearch.com/general/disclaimer-2025

    Description

    Global Investment Strategy and US Investment Strategy argued the US would avert a recession and stocks would rebound.

  16. d

    Replication data for: Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the...

    • search.dataone.org
    Updated Nov 22, 2023
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    Marco Bernardini; Selien De Schryder; Gert Peersman (2023). Replication data for: Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/3WQ6YH
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    Dataset updated
    Nov 22, 2023
    Dataset provided by
    Harvard Dataverse
    Authors
    Marco Bernardini; Selien De Schryder; Gert Peersman
    Description

    Bernardini, Marco, De Schryder, Selien, and Peersman, Gert, (2020) “Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession.” Review of Economics and Statistics 102:2, 304–322.

  17. H

    Replication data for: Does Home Production Replace Consumption Spending?...

    • dataverse.harvard.edu
    Updated Jul 1, 2020
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    Jim Been; Susann Rohwedder; Michael Hurd (2020). Replication data for: Does Home Production Replace Consumption Spending? Evidence from Shocks in Housing Wealth in the Great Recession [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/C0VSJ0
    Explore at:
    CroissantCroissant is a format for machine-learning datasets. Learn more about this at mlcommons.org/croissant.
    Dataset updated
    Jul 1, 2020
    Dataset provided by
    Harvard Dataverse
    Authors
    Jim Been; Susann Rohwedder; Michael Hurd
    License

    CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedicationhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    Been, Jim, Rohwedder, Susann, and Hurd, Michael, (2020) "Does Home Production Replace Consumption Spending? Evidence from Shocks in Housing Wealth in the Great Recession." Review of Economics and Statistics 102:1, 113-128.

  18. m

    Data for: The relationship between U.S. retail gasoline and crude oil prices...

    • data.mendeley.com
    Updated Nov 30, 2016
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    Dale S Bremmer (2016). Data for: The relationship between U.S. retail gasoline and crude oil prices during the Great Recession: “Rockets and feathers” or “balloons and rocks” behavior? [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.17632/c8b3c78z4r.1
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    Dataset updated
    Nov 30, 2016
    Authors
    Dale S Bremmer
    License

    Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 (CC BY-NC 3.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    Abstract of associated article: Previous studies of the relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices have often found “rockets and feathers” behavior: a scenario where gasoline prices increase more rapidly when crude oil prices rise than they fall when crude oil prices drop. While we find this behavior in times of generally rising crude oil prices, we find the opposite to be true during times of generally falling crude oil prices, a phenomenon we call “balloons and rocks” behavior. This result was obtained by testing for parameter stability in error-correction models which were estimated for periods of significant variability in both crude oil and gasoline prices. The data used to estimate these results is unique in the literature as it is comprised of daily U.S. retail gasoline prices and daily crude oil prices. The sample was taken during the Great Recession, an exceptional period of time that saw both sharp increases and decreases in gasoline and crude oil prices.

  19. T

    United States - Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated May 14, 2025
    + more versions
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2025). United States - Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/real-time-sahm-rule-recession-indicator-fed-data.html
    Explore at:
    excel, json, xml, csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    May 14, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jan 1, 1976 - Dec 31, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    United States - Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator was 0.13000 Percentage Points in August of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator reached a record high of 9.50000 in June of 2020 and a record low of -0.37000 in November of 1983. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on October of 2025.

  20. m

    Data for: The cyclicality of the separation and job finding rates in France

    • data.mendeley.com
    Updated Nov 30, 2016
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    Thomas Le Barbanchon (2016). Data for: The cyclicality of the separation and job finding rates in France [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.17632/m73vfyyvnp.1
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    Dataset updated
    Nov 30, 2016
    Authors
    Thomas Le Barbanchon
    License

    Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 (CC BY-NC 3.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Area covered
    France
    Description

    Abstract of associated article: In this paper, we shed light on the relative contribution of the separation and job finding rates to French unemployment at business cycle frequencies by using administrative data on registered unemployment and labor force surveys. We first investigate the fluctuations in steady state unemployment, and then in current unemployment in order to take into account the unemployment deviations from equilibrium. Both data sets lead to quite similar results. Both rates contributed to unemployment fluctuations during the nineties (50:50 split), while in the last decade the job finding rate was more significant and explained around 65% of the French unemployment fluctuations. In particular, the last business cycle episode, including the last recession, exacerbated the role of the job finding rate. We then show that the predominant role of the job finding rate in the last decade holds when the economy is hit by aggregate business cycle shocks, moving unemployment and vacancies along the Beveridge curve.

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Statista (2025). U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1239080/us-monthly-projected-recession-probability/
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U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026

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Dataset updated
Jun 24, 2025
Dataset authored and provided by
Statistahttp://statista.com/
Time period covered
Apr 2021 - Apr 2026
Area covered
United States
Description

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

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