By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USRECD) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-07-10 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

During the great recession period (2007 to 2009), the automotive industry was the most impacted chemical end market, with a peak-to-trough performance decline of ** percent. The construction, and metals and mining chemical end markets also saw their performance decrease by ** percent and ** percent, respectively, during the great recession.

During the Great Recession of 2008-2009, the advanced economies of the G7 experienced a period of acute financial crises, downturns in the non-financial economy, and political instability. The governments of these countries in many cases stepped in to backstop their financial sectors and to try to stimulate their economies. The scale of these interventions was large by historical standards, with observers making comparisons to the measures of the New Deal which the U.S. undertook in the 1930s to end the Great Depression.

The bailouts of financial institutions and stimulus packages caused the government debt ratios of the United States, United Kingdom, and Japan in particular to rise sharply. The UK's government debt ratio almost doubled due to the bailouts of Northern Rock and Royal Bank of Scotland. On the other hand, the increases in government debt in the Eurozone were more measured, due to the comparative absence of stimulus spending in these countries. They would later be hit hard during the Eurozone crisis of the 2010s, when bank lending to the periphery of the Eurozone (Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Greece in particular) would trigger a sovereign debt crisis. The Canadian government, led by a Conservative premier, engaged in some fiscal stimulus to support its economy, but these packages were small in comparison to that in most other of the G7 countries.

This time series is an interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html) (NBER). Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. The NBER identifies months and quarters of turning points without designating a date within the period that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the period. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below.

The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period.

The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. One version of this time series is represented using the midpoint method (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECM) The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series.

The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. Here is an example of this time series represented using the peak method (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECP).

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below.

The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period.

The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series.

The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CANRECD

The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CANRECDP

The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle.

Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs).

Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.)

The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability.

OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

Abstract (en): Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect. A zipped package contains a programming syntax file (text format) and a Microsoft Excel file, which contains the data, tables, and corresponding figures used in the article.These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

The 2009 Ipsos Canada End of Year Poll queries Canadians on issues and events that affected their lives in 2009, as well as their feelings on the next year. Respondents are asked for their opinions on Canadian politics, the nation's military presence in Afghanistan, their economic well-being and job status, as well as their feelings on the biggest news story and newsmaker of 2009. 1038 respondents from across the nation contributed to the 2009 End of Year Poll.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United Kingdom from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (GBRRECDM) from 1955-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and United Kingdom.

According to a survey carried out among banking professionals in the third quarter of 2022, more than half of the bank leaders believed that the U.S. economy was already in a recession or would be by the end of 2022. ** percent of the respondents expected a recession in the first half of 2023, while ** percent predicted a recession in the second half of 2023.

The global gum recession line market is estimated to be valued at USD XXX million in 2025 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2033. The market is driven by the increasing prevalence of periodontal diseases, such as gingivitis and periodontitis, which are major causes of gum recession. Additionally, rising awareness about oral hygiene and the growing adoption of minimally invasive dental procedures are fueling market growth. The availability of advanced techniques, such as laser therapy and guided tissue regeneration, is also contributing to the market expansion. The gum recession line market is segmented based on application, type, and region. By application, the market is divided into hospitals, dental clinics, and others. By type, the market is categorized into braided cords, knitted cords, twisted cords, and others. Geographically, the market is segmented into North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East & Africa, and Asia Pacific. North America is expected to dominate the global market throughout the forecast period due to the high prevalence of periodontal diseases and the adoption of advanced dental care technologies. Europe is also a major market for gum recession lines, followed by Asia Pacific. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the Gum Recession Line market, focusing on concentration, trends, key regions, product insights, and drivers. The market is valued at $XX billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $XX billion by the end of 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period.

Graph and download economic data for National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Mexico (NAEXKP01MXQ657S) from Q2 1980 to Q1 2025 about Mexico, real, and GDP.

The period between 1950 and 1973, known as the "Golden Age of capitalism" in the west, was the most prosperous period in Europe's modern history. The economic boom in the post-war period saw GDP grow by an average of almost four percent in Western and Eastern Europe, and almost five percent in the south. Although the west was the most technologically advanced of the three, this period did see a significant amount of catching up in the other two regions, whose rapid industrialization and urbanization changed the lives of its citizens forever. Recession hits the west The recession of 1973-1975 brought this economic and industrial growth to an end, however, as conflict in the Middle East saw oil prices skyrocket. Virtually all of Western Europe's industrial powers went into recession, and this had a detrimental knock-on effect in Poland and Romania due to their indebtedness to the west. While the recession ended in most countries by 1976, factors such as unemployment, inflation, and industrial output often remained high until the 1980s. The 1980s and 1990s also saw the rapid economic growth of countries such as Ireland and Finland. However, growth was much slower in these decades for most western economies than it had been in the 1950s and1960s. Collapse of communism The 1970s marked the beginning of the economic decline in Eastern Europe, as the command economies of the East Bloc could not maintain pace with the capitalist west and failed to adapt to the challenges that emerged in this period. Communism in Eastern Europe eventually ended around the early 1990s, and the largest power, the Soviet Union, was dissolved. This resulted in severe economic hardships in the former communist states, and recovery in the former-Soviet states did not begin until the late 1990s. The effects of communism's collapse in Europe was so severe that GDP in the east actually fell by an average of 0.9 percent per year between 1973 and 1998

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The Gingival Recession Treatment Market is projected to reach $674.52 million by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.99% during the forecast period of 2025-2033. The growth is attributed to factors such as the rising prevalence of periodontal disease, increasing awareness about gingival recession, and technological advancements in treatment methods. Additionally, the growing adoption of minimally invasive procedures, such as laser therapy and guided tissue regeneration, is fueling market expansion. The market is segmented based on treatment type, material used, end user, and procedure complexity. Surgical treatment holds the largest market share due to the effectiveness and durability of the procedures. Non-surgical treatments, however, are gaining popularity as they are less invasive and offer faster recovery times. Collagen-based materials dominate the market due to their biocompatible and regenerative properties. Dental clinics account for the majority of the market share, while home care is expected to witness significant growth in the coming years due to the increasing availability of over-the-counter treatments. Key players in the market include Coltene, MediDent Supplies, and 3M. Recent developments include: In the Gingival Recession Treatment Market, recent developments showcase a growing emphasis on innovative solutions to address the gingival recession. Companies like Coltene and MediDent Supplies are investing in advanced technologies, aiming to enhance treatment efficacy and patient outcomes. The demand for bioactive materials and minimally invasive procedures is driving growth, with key players like 3M and GC Corporation expanding their product lines to include sophisticated regenerative materials. Current affairs indicate a surge in market valuation as awareness about oral health and aesthetics rises among consumers, promoting the market's expansion. Notable companies such as Patterson Companies and Ultradent Products are actively participating in this growth by launching new products designed for gingival recession treatment. Furthermore, merger and acquisition activities have been noted, with companies like Danaher and Dentsply Sirona exploring strategic partnerships to strengthen their market position and broaden their offerings. This collaborative approach is indicative of a competitive landscape where innovation and market relevance are crucial for success. The market’s dynamics reflect an increasingly interconnected environment where companies leverage advancements in technology and consumer healthcare trends to navigate evolving patient needs effectively.. Key drivers for this market are: Growing geriatric population, Increasing awareness of oral health; Advancements in regenerative medicine; Rising demand for minimally invasive procedures; Expanding dental tourism industry. Potential restraints include: Increasing prevalence of periodontal diseases, Growing awareness of oral health; Advances in treatment technologies; Rising aesthetic dentistry demand; Expanding geriatric population.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was a period of severe macroeconomic instability for the United States and the global economy more generally. The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of a number of financial institutions who were deeply involved in the U.S. mortgage market and associated credit markets. Beginning in the Summer of 2007, a number of banks began to report issues with increasing mortgage delinquencies and the problem of not being able to accurately price derivatives contracts which were based on bundles of these U.S. residential mortgages. By the end of 2008, U.S. financial institutions had begun to fail due to their exposure to the housing market, leading to one of the deepest recessions in the history of the United States and to extensive government bailouts of the financial sector.

Subprime and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market

The early 2000s had seen explosive growth in the U.S. mortgage market, as credit became cheaper due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in the aftermath of the 2001 'Dot Com' Crash, as well as because of the increasing globalization of financial flows which directed funds into U.S. financial markets. Lower mortgage rates gave incentive to financial institutions to begin lending to riskier borrowers, using so-called 'subprime' loans. These were loans to borrowers with poor credit scores, who would not have met the requirements for a conventional mortgage loan. In order to hedge against the risk of these riskier loans, financial institutions began to use complex financial instruments known as derivatives, which bundled mortgage loans together and allowed the risk of default to be sold on to willing investors. This practice was supposed to remove the risk from these loans, by effectively allowing credit institutions to buy insurance against delinquencies. Due to the fraudulent practices of credit ratings agencies, however, the price of these contacts did not reflect the real risk of the loans involved. As the reality of the inability of the borrowers to repay began to kick in during 2007, the financial markets which traded these derivatives came under increasing stress and eventually led to a 'sudden stop' in trading and credit intermediation during 2008.

Market Panic and The Great Recession

As borrowers failed to make repayments, this had a knock-on effect among financial institutions who were highly leveraged with financial instruments based on the mortgage market. Lehman Brothers, one of the world's largest investment banks, failed on September 15th 2008, causing widespread panic in financial markets. Due to the fear of an unprecedented collapse in the financial sector which would have untold consequences for the wider economy, the U.S. government and central bank, The Fed, intervened the following day to bailout the United States' largest insurance company, AIG, and to backstop financial markets. The crisis prompted a deep recession, known colloquially as The Great Recession, drawing parallels between this period and The Great Depression. The collapse of credit intermediation in the economy lead to further issues in the real economy, as business were increasingly unable to pay back loans and were forced to lay off staff, driving unemployment to a high of almost 10 percent in 2010. While there has been criticism of the U.S. government's actions to bailout the financial institutions involved, the actions of the government and the Fed are seen by many as having prevented the crisis from spiraling into a depression of the magnitude of The Great Depression.