By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Sep 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

During a 2025 survey in the United States, marketers' optimism level about the American economy declined to **** points, down from **** in Fall 2024. Optimism was at its lowest level since Fall 2022 - that year, Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to global economic uncertainty, while high inflation and recession fears also added to a general negative sentiment.

PayPal's intention in 2022 to lay off some of its workforce means the end of a significant increase in employees in previous years. The company reported to have "approximately" ****** employees as of December 31, 2024 - although it does not mention whether these were full-time or part-time employees. Economic downturns - including fears over a new U.S. recession in 2024 - as well as a growing savings interest rate impacted several companies that were growing at a fast pace in the wake of COVID-19 and when many people started exploring fintech solutions and cryptocurrency investments during the lockdowns. Paypal user numbers reflect this changing environment: Whilst the number of active accounts on PayPal did still increase in 2024, the growth slowed down compared to previous years.

Technological progress has fueled online business activity and companies’ resulting demand for new software tools to enhance operations and customer interactions. Their increased investment in technology has fostered considerable revenue growth over recent years for business analytics and enterprise software publishers. However, macroeconomic factors have also induced volatility in revenue. The e-commerce surge and solid GDP growth amid the pandemic recovery raised corporate profit and, in turn, spending on software from various businesses. Many software providers have also been able to keep prices elevated since the need for software has consistently been very high, pushing profit upward since 2022. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes between 2021 and 2023 to battle inflation led to fears of a recession. This prompted businesses to limit software investments and slowed revenue growth in 2023 and 2024. In late 2024, many economists reached the consensus that the US had achieved the desired soft landing. The industry has also been impacted by various long-term trends. The shift to cloud-based solutions, accelerated by the need to boost IT security during pandemic-induced lockdowns, has facilitated the use of advanced analytics and AI that allow companies to harness large data efficiently. Major players have incorporated AI features into their platforms to enhance functionality, driving demand for enterprise software providers’ services. Smaller software publishers, lacking the resources to invest heavily in new technologies, have increasingly focused on niche markets. Acquisition activity has also expanded, with companies like Salesforce and Microsoft expanding capabilities by acquiring specialized firms. Overall, revenue for business analytics and enterprise software publishing businesses has surged at a CAGR of 12.8% over the past five years, and is estimated to reach $253.0 billion in 2025. This includes a projected 5.1% rise in revenue in 2025. Moving forward, demand for business analytics and enterprise software across various sectors is expected to remain strong. However, the market is likely to become saturated, slowing revenue growth. Economic uncertainty, marked by the potential for a recession due to tariffs imposed in early 2025, might constrain software demand from the manufacturing and tech sectors. Cybersecurity investment will rise, with big players like Salesforce and Oracle enhancing defenses. AI integration will present new challenges, necessitating advanced infrastructure and skilled workers, which could increase operating costs for software publishers. Overall, revenue for business analytics and enterprise software publishers is anticipated to soar at a CAGR of 7.5% over the next five years, reaching an estimated $363.0 billion in 2030.

Revenue for the Open-End Investment Funds industry has been increasing over the past five years. Open-end investment funds revenue has been growing slightly but remaining relatively steady at a CAGR of 0.0% to $196.1 billion over the past five years, including an expected increase of 4.2% in the current year. In addition, industry profit has climbed and comprises 33.1% of revenue in the current year. Overall, revenue has been increasing alongside overall asset growth, despite operators being forced to lower fees to meet shifting consumer preferences. The industry has encountered volatility due to the high-interest rate environment for most of the period. Higher interest rates reduce liquidity and make fixed income securities more attractive to investors due to less risk and more predictable interest payments. The industry has also encountered increased growth for ETFs and retail investors. The greatest shift in the industry has been an evolving investor preference for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While mutual funds account for the majority of industry assets, growth in ETF assets has significantly outpaced that of mutual funds. Expenses that mutual fund investors incur have fallen from 0.5% of assets in 2018 to 0.4% in 2023, as industry operators have cut fees to attract new capital due to pressure from new funds (latest data available). Despite the high interest rate environment, the Fed slashed rates in 2024 and is anticipated to cut rates further in the latter part of 2025, which will boost asset prices. Open-end investment funds' revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.3% to $198.7 billion over the five years to 2030. The fears over inflation and a possible recession are expected to dominate the beginning of the outlook period. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates as inflationary pressures ease. Investment companies' importance will continue to grow, with mutual funds and ETFs representing key channels for individual and institutional investors to access financial markets.

Fund management activities revenue is forecast to drop at a compound annual rate of 0.9% over the five years through 2025-26 to £29.9 billion, including estimated growth of 2.5% in 2025-26. Fund managers have had to navigate turbulent markets in recent years, hit by aggressive monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and muted economic growth. Such uncertainty made investors antsy, triggering volatile capital flows and creating unstable fee income. Economic uncertainty surrounding markets amid the threat of a recession, the cost-of-living squeeze and the gilt crisis in 2022-23 all shook key investor segments, causing the first net outflow in funding in 2022 since data was first recorded. Despite conditions remaining bleak in 2023-24, financial markets made a slow recovery, with both bond and stock markets benefitting from the expectation of interest rate cuts, triggering a rally at the tail-end of the year. However, amid fierce price competition and falling fees, this wasn’t enough to offset the drop in revenue during 2023-24. Capital markets performed well in 2024-25 thanks to further interest rate cuts and excitement surrounding generative AI supporting investment activity, driving up profit. However, fund managers exposed to US markets saw hefty declines at the start of 2025 due to Trump’s erratic tariff policies, which incited fears of a recession. In 2025-26, markets will remain edgy as continued uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies and fears of a tech bubble prompt large sell-offs, inciting fierce volatility. Investors are shifting allocations towards Europe, looking to benefit from growing military spending from major economies like Germany, supporting profit of 19.3% in 2025-26. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% over the five years through 2030-31 to £39.9 billion. Capital markets will continue to grow in the short term, propped up by the prospect of further rate cuts. However, equity remains vulnerable because soaring stock valuations seen in recent years can lead to a severe price correction if any negative news hits markets, hurting revenue growth. Already proving a useful tool for fund managers, AI will continue to gain momentum in the coming years, especially among smaller managers looking to improve data analytics capabilities and client offerings. Fund managers will also have to navigate the changing perceptions of ESG investments, which, although hitting the headlines over recent years, are beginning to lose the interest of investors due to their lower returns. While growth in the domestic economy may be slow in the coming years, investment companies will take advantage of growing opportunities in expanding markets, despite facing fiercer competition from foreign funds.

Worldwide car sales grew to around 78 million automobiles in 2024, up from around 75.3 million units in 2023. Throughout 2020 and 2021, the sector experienced a downward trend on the back of a slowing global economy, while COVID-19 and the Russian war on Ukraine contributed to shortages in the automotive semiconductor industry and further supply chain disruptions in 2022. Despite these challenges, 2023 and 2024 sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels and are forecast to keep rising through 2025. Covid-19 hits car demand It had been estimated pre-pandemic that international car sales were on track to reach 80 million. While 2023 sales are still far away from that goal, this was the first year were car sales exceeded pre-pandemic values. The automotive market faced various challenges in 2023, including supply shortages, automotive layoffs, and strikes in North America. However, despite these hurdles, the North American market was among the fastest-growing regions in 2024, along with Eastern Europe and Asia, as auto sales in these regions increased year-on-year. Chinese market recovers After years of double-digit growth, China's economy began to lose steam in 2022, and recovery has been slow through 2023. China was the largest automobile market based on sales with around 25.8 million units in 2023. However, monthly car sales in China were in free-fall in April 2022 partly due to shortages, fears over a looming recession, and the country grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic. By June of that same year, monthly sales in China were closer to those recorded in 2021.

The Motor Vehicle Fuel Retailing industry has undergone a seismic shift over recent years, driven by regulatory changes and evolving consumer preferences. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 10.7% over the five years through 2025 to €30.2 billion, including estimated growth of 2.7% in 2025. French fuel retailers have seen hefty rises in revenue, particularly in 2022, when fuel prices skyrocketed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although prices have trended downwards in the years following due to slowing economic growth and fears of a recession in 2023, they remain volatile and higher than pre-pandemic levels. Supply concerns continue to place upward pressure on prices, stemming from the escalating conflict in the Middle East. After Donald Trump’s victory in the US election in November 2024, tax cuts and a boost to fiscal spending will likely drive oil prices in 2025, forcing retailers to pass on these elevated costs to consumers through higher prices. Retailers are adapting their infrastructure to store biofuels following stringent mandates imposed by the French government calling for minimum percentages of biofuels to be included in petrol and diesel. Motor Vehicle Fuel Retailing revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.9% over the five years through 2030 to €31.6 billion. The shift towards sustainability shows no signs of slowing as France seeks to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. This encourages a continued rise in electric vehicle production, posing a threat to fuel retailers in the coming years. The move to electric vehicles will be exacerbated by improved production processes by EV manufacturers, leading to lower prices and healthier demand for EVs. However, retailers looking to navigate the evolving landscape will need to invest heavily in improving their biofuel offerings to remain competitive. This will also prompt new entrants as they explore renewable energy opportunities, driving consolidation activity as larger retailers scoop them up in the coming years.

At the end of April 2025, the FTSE 100 index stood at ********, marking one of its highest level since January 2015. This was a significant recovery compared to the 12th of March 2020, amid the escalating crisis surrounding the coronavirus and fears of a global recession, when the FTSE 100 suffered the second-largest one-day crash in its history and the biggest since the 1987 market crash.

As of January 29, 2025, the FTSE index stood at ******** points - well above its average value of around ***** points in the past few years.On the 12th of March 2020, amid the escalating crisis surrounding the coronavirus and fears of a global recession, the FTSE 100 suffered the second largest one day crash in its history and the biggest since the 1987 market crash. On the 23rd of March, the FTSE index saw its lowest value this year to date at ******** but has since began a tentative recovery. With the continuation of the pandemic, the FTSE 100 index was making a tentative recovery between late March 2020 and early June 2020. Since then the FSTE 100 index had plateaued towards the end of July, before starting a tentative upward trend in November. FTSE 100 The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, otherwise known as the FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 largest companies trading on the London Stock Exchange in terms of market capitalization. At the end of March 2024, the largest company trading on the LSE was Shell. The largest ever initial public offering (IPO) on the LSE was Glencore International plc. European stock exchanges While nearly every country in Europe has a stock exchange, only five are considered major, and have a market capital of over one trillion U.S dollars. European stock exchanges make up two of the top ten major stock markets in the world. Europe’s biggest stock exchange is the Euronext which combines seven markets based in Belgium, France, England, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal.