Between ************ and *********, global recession fear went through periods of sharp increases three times. First, in the summer of 2019, due to an escalation in U.S.-China relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market. The second peak of worldwide recession fear took place in **********, as a result of the alarming jump in the rate of COVID-19 cases. The fear of recession started to increase sharply again in *************, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Fund management activities revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 0.7% over the five years through 2024-25 to £28.2 billion, including estimated growth of 7.8% in 2024-25. Fund managers have had to navigate turbulent markets in recent years, hit by aggressive monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and muted economic growth. Such uncertainty made investors antsy, triggering volatile capital flows and creating unstable fee income. Economic uncertainty surrounding markets amid the threat of a recession, the cost-of-living squeeze and the gilt crisis in 2022-23 all shook key investor segments, causing the first net outflow in funding in 2022 since data was first recorded. Despite conditions remaining bleak in 2023-24, financial markets made a slow recovery, with both bond and stock markets benefitting from the expectation of interest rate cuts, triggering a rally at the tail-end of the year. However, amid fierce price competition and falling fees, this wasn’t enough to offset the drop in revenue during 2023-24. Capital markets are set to perform well in 2024-25 thanks to further interest rate cuts and optimistic growth prospects supporting investment activity, driving up profit. However, fund managers exposed to US markets have seen hefty declines at the start of 2025, hit by Trump’s erratic tariff policies, which incited fears of a recession. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 4.4% over the five years through 2029-30 to £35 billion. Capital markets will continue to grow in 2025-26, propped up by the prospect of further rate cuts. However, equity remains vulnerable because soaring stock valuations seen in recent years can lead to a severe price correction if any negative news hits markets, hurting revenue growth. Already proving a useful tool for fund managers, AI will continue to gain momentum in the coming years, especially among smaller managers looking to improve data analytics capabilities and client offerings. Fund managers will also have to navigate the changing perceptions of ESG investments, which, although hitting the headlines over recent years, are beginning to lose the interest of investors due to their lower returns. While growth in the domestic economy may be slow in the coming years, investment companies will take advantage of growing opportunities in expanding markets, despite facing fiercer competition from foreign funds.

Petroleum and natural gas are used in a variety of industries for a wide range of purposes. In Germany, these fossil fuels have been extracted since the beginning of the 20th century and make a small contribution to guaranteeing Germany's energy supply. According to the BVEG, there are around 23.7 million tonnes of crude oil reserves and 36 billion cubic metres of natural gas reserves in Germany as of 2022. The industry's turnover and profit development is closely linked to the development of world market prices for crude oil and natural gas. OPEC+ plays an important role in setting oil prices. By setting production quotas, OPEC+ can adjust supply to demand and thus stabilise or increase prices. Following the price slump in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the price of oil and gas began to rise again in 2021. The recovery of the global economy and rising demand for energy drove prices up. Limited production capacities and supply bottlenecks further exacerbated this trend. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to a further price increase. Economic sanctions and import embargoes against Russia, an important exporter of natural gas, caused prices to rise further. Energy prices have fallen again since 2023, but remain at a high level. Oil and gas prices will also remain volatile in 2025, influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties and OPEC+ decisions.Since 2020, turnover in the sector has risen by an average of 8.2% per year. This is primarily due to price increases in 2021 and 2022. However, the recent lower international prices for crude oil and natural gas as well as steadily declining production volumes have led to a negative development in the industry since 2023. Fears of a global recession and the actual slowdown in economic growth in some regions have dampened demand for oil and natural gas while global production volumes remain high. For 2025, IBISWorld expects sales to fall by 0.7% compared to the previous year to 2.9 billion euros.In the long term, the industry will not be able to recover, even though natural gas in particular is likely to continue to play an important role in energy and heat generation in Germany. The declining reserves of raw materials in Germany are further reducing the companies' production output. The domestic production volume of natural gas was 169,428 terajoules in 2022, compared to 378,425 terajoules in 2012. As a result, companies in the sector are increasingly starting to reorient themselves internationally and outside the renewable energy sector. Turnover is expected to fall by 1.2% per year and reach 2.7 billion euros in 2030.

Technological progress has fueled online business activity and companies’ resulting demand for new software tools to enhance operations and customer interactions. Their increased investment in technology has fostered considerable revenue growth over recent years for business analytics and enterprise software publishers. However, macroeconomic factors have also induced volatility in revenue. The e-commerce surge and solid GDP growth amid the pandemic recovery raised corporate profit and, in turn, spending on software from various businesses. Many software providers have also been able to keep prices elevated since the need for software has consistently been very high, pushing profit upward since 2022. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes between 2021 and 2023 to battle inflation led to fears of a recession. This prompted businesses to limit software investments and slowed revenue growth in 2023 and 2024. In late 2024, many economists reached the consensus that the US had achieved the desired soft landing. The industry has also been impacted by various long-term trends. The shift to cloud-based solutions, accelerated by the need to boost IT security during pandemic-induced lockdowns, has facilitated the use of advanced analytics and AI that allow companies to harness large data efficiently. Major players have incorporated AI features into their platforms to enhance functionality, driving demand for enterprise software providers’ services. Smaller software publishers, lacking the resources to invest heavily in new technologies, have increasingly focused on niche markets. Acquisition activity has also expanded, with companies like Salesforce and Microsoft expanding capabilities by acquiring specialized firms. Overall, revenue for business analytics and enterprise software publishing businesses has surged at a CAGR of 12.8% over the past five years, and is estimated to reach $253.0 billion in 2025. This includes a projected 5.1% rise in revenue in 2025. Moving forward, demand for business analytics and enterprise software across various sectors is expected to remain strong. However, the market is likely to become saturated, slowing revenue growth. Economic uncertainty, marked by the potential for a recession due to tariffs imposed in early 2025, might constrain software demand from the manufacturing and tech sectors. Cybersecurity investment will rise, with big players like Salesforce and Oracle enhancing defenses. AI integration will present new challenges, necessitating advanced infrastructure and skilled workers, which could increase operating costs for software publishers. Overall, revenue for business analytics and enterprise software publishers is anticipated to soar at a CAGR of 7.5% over the next five years, reaching an estimated $363.0 billion in 2030.

Recent economic shifts have created excess revenue volatility for flag manufacturers in recent years. Demand for flags, which is typically tied to holidays and public events, plummeted during the pandemic due to business closures, halted nonresidential construction and the slump in domestic travel, reducing revenue by more than 5.0% in 2020. The economic recovery saw increased domestic trips, but business spending was slow to rebound. High inflation then proceeded to curb spending on discretionary materials such as flags, fostering another major drop in revenue in 2022. As inflation eased in 2023 and 2024, consumer spending and, therefore, flag sales revived. However, high interest rates raised borrowing costs and dampened homeownership, limiting demand and constraining revenue growth over the past few years. Increased import penetration, fueled by the dollar's strength and online shopping, has heightened competition, though domestic preference for American-made flags offers some protection for providers. Political and social movements, along with changing levels of patriotism, have increasingly driven short-term surges and made demand for the industry’s products somewhat uncertain. Overall, revenue for flag manufacturers in the US has inched downward at a CAGR of 0.6% over the past five years, reaching $102.0 million in 2025, including a 0.3% increase in revenue in that year. Concurrently, this modest decline in revenue, on top of an increase in internal competition, has pushed profit slightly downward since 2020. The Trump administration’s tariffs, imposed in early 2025 on most imports—including flags—are set to cause substantial disruptions for US flag makers. While higher tariffs will shield domestic manufacturers from foreign competition, they will also increase input costs and consumer prices, potentially restricting household spending and risking a recession. If economic fears intensify, demand for flags may drop as discretionary spending, homebuying and nonresidential construction decline, possibly leading to slower revenue growth in 2025 and 2026. However, long-term prospects are expected to remain positive, supported by rising productivity and per capita disposable income, which will encourage spending on flags and travel. Additionally, manufacturers are focusing on customized products and expanding their online presence to capture evolving consumer demand. Sustainability is becoming increasingly paramount, with flag makers adopting eco-friendly materials and practices to secure market share as green standards gain importance. Overall, revenue for US-based flag manufacturers is forecast to rise at a CAGR of 1.5% over the next five years, reaching $109.9 million in 2030.

Human resources and benefits administration companies have experienced significant turbulence recently due to shifting economic conditions. COVID-19 initially caused a dramatic slowdown in many sectors, which forced numerous companies to cut back on discretionary spending systems, including HR services, as organizations downscaled operations and pivoted to internal HR solutions. In 2020, this resulted in a slight revenue decline, though federal interventions like the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) partially mitigated potential financial stressors. Afterward, as the economic recovery commenced and unemployment figures dwindled to more consistent levels, corporations slowly began reintegrating HR and benefits services into their business models, supporting a notable revenue rebound in 2022. Beginning in 2022, higher interest rates and increasing fears of an economic recession dampened corporate enthusiasm for external HR expenditure, resulting in falling revenue in 2023 and 2024. Despite these hindrances, the past five years also saw rapid technological advancements and increased adoption of AI and machine learning solutions, enabling service providers to innovate their offerings and gain a competitive edge in a saturated market. Concurrently, market share concentration has declined as more companies have entered the industry in expectation of rising revenue streams in the near future. This has bolstered internal competition, putting downward pressure on profit. Overall, revenue for human resources and benefits administration companies has inched upward at a CAGR of 1.0% over the past five years, reaching $88.9 billion in 2025. This includes a 0.5% decline in revenue in that year. Looking ahead, providers anticipate a more optimistic trajectory. As GDP growth maintains a steady pace, generating more employment opportunities, demand for comprehensive HR services will likely see an upturn. Economic uncertainty remains due to tariffs being recently implemented, which may affect GDP growth and corporations' performance. While substitute competition becomes more prevalent due to the increased attractiveness of internal HR services, cloud-based solutions will become essential. Demand for wellness and diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives will also swell, requiring providers to adapt to these trends for competitive advantage. Overall, revenue for human resources and benefits administration businesses is forecast to mount at a CAGR of 2.3% over the next five years, reaching $99.8 billion in 2030.

Mortgage brokers’ revenue is anticipated to climb at a compound annual rate of 4.5% over the five years through 2024-25 to £2.3 billion, including estimated growth of . Rising residential property transactions stimulated by government initiatives and rising house prices have driven industry growth. However, mortgage brokers have faced numerous obstacles, including downward pricing pressures from upstream lenders and a sharp downturn in the housing market as rising mortgage rates ramped up the cost of borrowing. After a standstill in residential real estate activity in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak, ultra-low base rates, the release of pent-up demand, the introduction of tax incentives and buyers reassessing their living situation fuelled a V-shaped recovery in the housing market. This meant new mortgage approvals for house purchases boomed going into 2021-22, ramping up demand for brokerage services. 2022-23 was a year rife with economic headwinds, from rising interest rates to fears of a looming recession. Yet, the housing market stood its ground, with brokers continuing to benefit from rising prices. Elevated mortgage rates eventually hit demand for houses in the first half of 2023, contributing to lacklustre house price growth in 2023-24, hurting revenue, despite a modest recovery in the second half of the year as mortgage rates came down. In 2024-25, lower mortgage rates and an improving economic outlook support house prices, driving revenue growth. Mortgage brokers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 5.3% over the five years through 2029-30 to £2.9 billion. Competition from direct lending will ramp up. Yet, growth opportunities remain. The emergence of niche mortgage products, like those targeting retired individuals and contractors, as well as green mortgages, will support revenue growth in the coming years. AI is also set to transform the industry, improving cost efficiencies by automating tasks like document verification, risk assessment and customer profiling.