Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 1.20000 Percentage Points in July of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recession; we also discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector toy model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (USRECP) from Dec 1854 to Feb 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and March 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for India from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (INDREC) from May 1996 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and India.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Hong Kong expanded 0.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The weekly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fluctuated significantly in the United States between January 2021 and April 2023. Between January and April 2021, it increased sharply from -0.71 percent to 25.12 percent. From April 2021 onwards, it started to decrease drastically, with slight occasional increases, and reached its lowest value at negative 0.43 percent in November 2022. After November 2022, the weekly GDP growth rate increased notably.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 18 Mar 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 17 Mar 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 18 Mar 2025, with 62199 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 18 Mar 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S079: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for France from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (FRAREC) from Feb 1960 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and France.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United Kingdom from the Peak through the Trough (GBRRECDM) from 1955-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and United Kingdom.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough (OECDEUROPERECDM) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-08-31 about OECD Europe, peak, trough, recession indicators, and Europe.

MLE and GoFT for GuGRP parameters of American recessions.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany contracted 0.20 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Italy expanded 0.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Italy GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

In 2022, the regional gross domestic product (GDP) in Latin America and the Caribbean grew more than four percent compared to the previous year. In 2020, the GDP of all the subregion shrunk, with Central America being the worst hit by the economic crisis spawned from the coronavirus pandemic, with a real GDP decrease of seven percent. This was the first time that this part of Latin America experiences a GDP fall since at least 2016. Forecasts for 2023 are fairly optimistic as well.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada expanded 0.60 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Canada GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: High data was reported at -0.325 % in 30 Jan 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.404 % for 23 Jan 2022. Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: High data is updated weekly, averaging -2.325 % from May 2020 (Median) to 30 Jan 2022, with 91 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.404 % in 23 Jan 2022 and a record low of -9.373 % in 24 May 2020. Canada GDP Counterfactual Tracker: % Change from Pre-Crisis Trend: High data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Canada – Table CA.OECD.WT: GDP Growth Tracker: Weekly.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in France contracted 0.10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - France GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.