Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jul 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

In May 2025, the Sahm recession indicator was ****, indicating no change from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by **** percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jul 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 6.80000 Percentage Points in October of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data was reported at 6.800 % Point in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.300 % Point for Sep 2024. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 7.900 % Point from Dec 1967 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 229 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % Point in Sep 2020. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S094: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: sa data was reported at 0.270 % Point in Apr 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.270 % Point for Mar 2025. United States Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: sa data is updated monthly, averaging 0.070 % Point from Dec 1959 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 785 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.500 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of -0.370 % Point in Sep 2021. United States Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: sa data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.

In a June 2022 survey, more than half of Americans believed that the best indicator of whether or not the country is experiencing a recession was the prices of goods and services they buy. This response was given by 54 percent of the respondents. A further 20 percent felt that the unemployment rate and job reports are the best indicator.

United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator was 0.17000 Percentage Points in June of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator reached a record high of 9.43000 in June of 2020 and a record low of -0.40000 in September of 2021. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Sahm Rule Recession Indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Jul 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in July of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1969 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1968. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Probability of Recession: Euro Area data was reported at 1.506 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.828 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: Euro Area data is updated monthly, averaging 5.278 % from Jan 1996 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 351 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 70.141 % in Mar 2009 and a record low of 0.016 % in Jul 2021. Probability of Recession: Euro Area data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table EU.S002: Probability of Recession: Euro Area.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (OECDNMERECDM) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-02-28 about OECD and Non-OECD, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.995 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.031 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.564 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 543 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 87.972 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Euro Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (EUROREC) from Mar 1960 to Aug 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, Euro Area, and Europe.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator：SA在04-01-2025达0.270百分点，相较于03-01-2025的0.270百分点保持不变。Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator：SA数据按月更新，12-01-1959至04-01-2025期间平均值为0.070百分点，共785份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于06-01-2020，达9.500百分点，而历史最低值则出现于09-01-2021，为-0.370百分点。CEIC提供的Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator：SA数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – Table US.S: Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator。

In a November 2022 survey, over ************** of Republicans believed that the United States is currently experiencing an economic recession, as opposed to only ** percent of Democrats. In the same survey, approximately half of the respondents said that the best indicator of a recession was the prices of goods and services.