Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and May 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

This time series is an interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html) (NBER). Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. The NBER identifies months and quarters of turning points without designating a date within the period that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the period. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough. For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below.

The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period.

The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. One version of this time series is represented using the midpoint method (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECM) The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The trough method is used for this series.

The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. Here is an example of this time series represented using the peak method (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECP).

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USRECDM) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-06-19 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The Weekly Activity Index (WAI) of the German economy showed notable fluctuations between January 2021 and January 2025. It reached its lowest point at -0.81 percent in the 10th week of 2021 before experiencing a sharp increase, peaking at 1.4 percent in the 24th week of the same year. The index then declined significantly during the second half of 2021 but recovered slightly, ending the year at 0.36 percent. In early 2022, the WAI saw another significant drop and remained in negative territory until the 22nd week of 2023. Throughout 2024, the index continued to fluctuate markedly, displaying an upward trend in the first half of the year followed by a downward trend in the second half. What is the weekly activity index? The weekly activity index (WAI) is a weekly index designed to measure real economic activity in Germany. It is calculated as a common component from various indicators, such as industrial output, GDP, electricity consumption, credit card payments, and other high-frequency indicators. Positive values in the index indicates above average growth in real economic activity, while negative values signal a decline in economic output.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.995 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.031 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.564 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 543 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 87.972 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

United States Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: sa data was reported at 0.270 % Point in Apr 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.270 % Point for Mar 2025. United States Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: sa data is updated monthly, averaging 0.070 % Point from Dec 1959 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 785 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.500 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of -0.370 % Point in Sep 2021. United States Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: sa data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

This indicator is based on "real-time" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.

United States NBER based Recession Indi frm the Peak to the Pd Prcdng the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER based Recession Indi frm the Peak to the Pd Prcdng the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 31 Mar 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER based Recession Indi frm the Peak to the Pd Prcdng the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

United States FRB Recession Risk data was reported at 0.178 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.192 % for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk data is updated monthly, averaging 0.193 % from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 % in Oct 2008 and a record low of 0.022 % in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USRECQM) from Q4 1854 to Q1 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996.

For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, ""http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/research/published-papers/chauvet-and-piger_2008_jour.pdf">A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods (https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f2ed/8fac87c0c82c3d85ca64ee9846658d8810fb.pdf?_ga=2.168797348.404457612.1561570817-1723670870.1561570817)," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49.

For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 (http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm).

Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data was reported at 0.840 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.180 % for Feb 2025. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data is updated monthly, averaging 0.150 % from Jun 1967 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 694 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in Mar 2021. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S089: Jeremy Piger Smooth Recession Probabilities.

The economy of the United Kingdom shrank by 0.3 percent in April 2025, after growing by 0.2 percent in March 2025. As of the most recent month, the UK economy is around 4.2 percent larger than it was in February 2020, just before the start of COVID-19 lockdowns. After a record 19.6 percent decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy quickly returned to growth in the following months, and grew through most of 2021. Cost of living crisis lingers into 2025 As of December 2024, just over half of people in the UK reported that their cost of living was higher than it was in the previous month. Although this is a decline from the peak of the crisis in 2022 when over 90 percent of people reported a higher cost of living, households are evidently still under severe pressure. While wage growth has outpaced inflation since July 2023, overall consumer prices were 20 percent higher in late 2024 than they were in late 2021. For food and energy, which lower income households spend more on, late 2024 prices were almost 30 percent higher when compared with late 2021. According to recent estimates, living standards, as measured by changes in disposable income fell by 2.1 percent in 2022/23, but did start to grow again in 2023/24. Late 2023 recession followed by growth in 2024 In December 2023, the UK economy was approximately the same size as it was a year earlier, and struggled to achieve modest growth throughout that year. Going into 2023, a surge in energy costs, as well as high interest rates, created an unfavorable environment for UK consumers and businesses. The inflationary pressures that drove these problems did start to subside, however, with inflation falling to 3.9 percent in November 2023, down from a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although relatively strong economic growth occurred in the first half of 2024, with GDP growing by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent in the first two quarters of the year, zero growth was reported in the third quarter of the year. Long-term issues, such as low business investment, weak productivity growth, and regional inequality, will likely continue to hamper the economy going forward.

Probability of Recession: Euro Area data was reported at 1.506 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.828 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: Euro Area data is updated monthly, averaging 5.278 % from Jan 1996 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 351 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 70.141 % in Mar 2009 and a record low of 0.016 % in Jul 2021. Probability of Recession: Euro Area data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table EU.S002: Probability of Recession: Euro Area.