Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Aug 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Aug 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD and Non-member Economies from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (OECDNMERECDM) from 1960-02-01 to 2022-02-28 about OECD and Non-OECD, peak, trough, and recession indicators.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Aug 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

From the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in the Summer of 2007, the world economy experienced an almost unprecedented period of turmoil in which millions of people were made unemployed, businesses declared bankruptcy en masse, and structurally critical financial institutions failed. The crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent losses by investment banks such as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch. These institutions, which had become over-leveraged with complex financial securities known as derivatives, were tied to each other through a web of financial contracts, meaning that the collapse of one investment bank could trigger the collapse of several others. As Lehman Brothers failed on September 15. 2008, becoming the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, shockwaves were felt throughout the global financial system. The sudden stop of flows of credit worldwide caused a financial panic and sent most of the world's largest economies into a deep recession, later known as the Great Recession. The World Economy in recession
More than any other period in history, the world economy had become highly interconnected and interdependent over the period from the 1970s to 2007. As governments liberalized financial flows, banks and other financial institutions could take money in one country and invest it in another part of the globe. Financial institutions and other non-financial companies became multinational, meaning that they had subsidiaries and partners in many regions. All this meant that when Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York City, was shaken by bankruptcies and credit freezes in late 2007, other advanced economies did not need to wait long to feel the tremors. All of the G7 countries, the seven most economically advanced western-aligned countries, entered recession in 2008, before experiencing an even deeper trough in 2009. While all returned to growth by 2010, this was less stable in the countries of the Eurozone (Germany, France, Italy) over the following years due to the Eurozone crisis, as well as in Japan, which has had issues with low growth since the mid-1990s.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Euro Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (EUROREC) from Mar 1960 to Aug 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, Euro Area, and Europe.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The base flow recession time constant (tau) is a hydrologic index that characterizes the ability of a ground-water system to supply flow to a stream draining from that system. Tau and other correlated hydrologic indices have been used as explanatory variables to greatly improve the predictive power of low-flow regression equations. Tau can also be used as an indicator of streamflow dependence on groundwater inflow to the channel. Tau values were calculated for 10 streamgages in the Niobrara National Scenic River study area. The calculated tau values were then used to create a kriged map. Kriging is a geostatistical method that can be used to determine optimal weights for measurements at sampled locations (streamgages) for the estimation of values at unsampled locations (ungaged sites). The kriged tau map could be used (1) as the basis for identifying areas with different hydrologic responsiveness, with differing potential to demonstrate the effects of management changes and (2) in the development of regional low-flow regression equations. The Geostatistical Analyst tools in ArcGIS Pro version 2.5.2 (Environmental Systems Research Institute, 2012) were used to create the kriged tau map and perform cross validation to determine the root mean square error (RMSE) of the tau map.

In July 2024, the merchandise exports index worldwide, excluding the U.S., stood at 204.8. This is compared to an index value of 143 for the United States in the same month. The index was highest in emerging economies, reaching an index score of 353. Moreover, the merchandise imports index was also highest in emerging economies. The merchandise exports index is the U.S. dollar value of goods sold to the rest of the world, deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The excess bond premium (EBP) is a measure of investor sentiment or risk appetite in the corporate bond market. A credit spread index can be decomposed into two components: a component that captures the systematic movements in default risk of individual firms and a residual component: the excess bond premium that represents variation in the average price of bearing exposure to US corporate credit risk, above and beyond the compensation for expected defaults. The EBP component of corporate bond credit spreads that is not directly attributable to expected default risk provides an effective measure of investor sentiment or risk appetite in the corporate bond market.

In July 2024, the global merchandise imports index, excluding the U.S., stood at 192.6. This is compared to a value of 121 for the United States in the same period. In emerging economies, it reached an index level of nearly 291.4.The merchandise imports index is the U.S. dollar value of goods bought from the rest of the world, deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Brazilian and Indian share prices became the highest performing of the major developed and emerging economies as of June 2023, with index values of 235.25 and 230.91 respectively in that month. Conversely, the lowest-performing were China and the Germany, both with index values of 86.98 and 113.04 respectively at this time. The index value is calculated with 2015 values as the baseline (i.e. 2015 = 100).

View market daily updates and historical trends for 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread. from United States. Source: Department of the Treasury. Track economi…

Using micro-data on six surveys–the Gallup World Poll 2005–2023, the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1993–2022, Eurobarometer 1991–2022, the UK Covid Social Survey Panel, 2020–2022, the European Social Survey 2002–2020 and the IPSOS Happiness Survey 2018–2023 –we show individuals’ reports of subjective wellbeing in Europe declined in the Great Recession of 2008/9 and during the Covid pandemic of 2020–2021 on most measures. They also declined in four countries bordering Ukraine after the Russian invasion in 2022. However, the movements are not large and are not apparent everywhere. We also used data from the European Commission’s Business and Consumer Surveys on people’s expectations of life in general, their financial situation and the economic and employment situation in the country. All of these dropped markedly in the Great Recession and during Covid, but bounced back quickly, as did firms’ expectations of the economy and the labor market. Neither the annual data from the United Nation’s Human Development Index (HDI) nor data used in the World Happiness Report from the Gallup World Poll shifted much in response to negative shocks. The HDI has been rising in the last decade reflecting overall improvements in economic and social wellbeing, captured in part by real earnings growth, although it fell slightly after 2020 as life expectancy dipped. This secular improvement is mirrored in life satisfaction which has been rising in the last decade. However, so too have negative affect in Europe and despair in the United States.

Using micro-data on six surveys–the Gallup World Poll 2005–2023, the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1993–2022, Eurobarometer 1991–2022, the UK Covid Social Survey Panel, 2020–2022, the European Social Survey 2002–2020 and the IPSOS Happiness Survey 2018–2023 –we show individuals’ reports of subjective wellbeing in Europe declined in the Great Recession of 2008/9 and during the Covid pandemic of 2020–2021 on most measures. They also declined in four countries bordering Ukraine after the Russian invasion in 2022. However, the movements are not large and are not apparent everywhere. We also used data from the European Commission’s Business and Consumer Surveys on people’s expectations of life in general, their financial situation and the economic and employment situation in the country. All of these dropped markedly in the Great Recession and during Covid, but bounced back quickly, as did firms’ expectations of the economy and the labor market. Neither the annual data from the United Nation’s Human Development Index (HDI) nor data used in the World Happiness Report from the Gallup World Poll shifted much in response to negative shocks. The HDI has been rising in the last decade reflecting overall improvements in economic and social wellbeing, captured in part by real earnings growth, although it fell slightly after 2020 as life expectancy dipped. This secular improvement is mirrored in life satisfaction which has been rising in the last decade. However, so too have negative affect in Europe and despair in the United States.

Approximately one quarter of the UK population have a migration background (first- or second-generation immigrants). Some ethnic minority groups are more likely to be in atypical or flexible employment than the White British majority. In particular during a time of health and economic crisis, such as the COVID–19 pandemic, those ethnic groups were expected to be economically more vulnerable than other groups. This study shows the increased vulnerability of some ethnic minority groups during COVID–19 by looking at their labour market outcomes compared to White British. Specifically, we ask whether it was their disproportionate presence in flexible employment or in shut-down occupations that made some ethnic minority groups vulnerable to adverse labour market outcomes during the COVID–19 recession? Using the COVID–19 recession in the UK as a case study, we employ weighted linear probability models with 2021 data from the Evidence for Equality National Survey (EVENS) to look at changes in economic indicators across ethnic groups and gender. We report heterogeneity in flexible employment rates within the non-White group and between the non-White and the White British group. By using a conditional decomposition method, we aim to show that those ethnic minority groups who were disproportionately on flexible contracts experienced worse economic effects than the White British group. The collection consists of the Stata Do-File which can be used to reproduce the study.Was it their disproportionate presence in flexible employment or in shut-down occupations that made some ethnic minority groups vulnerable to adverse labour market outcomes during the COVID–19 recession? Using the COVID–19 recession in the UK as a case study, we employ weighted linear probability models with 2021 data from the Evidence for Equality National Survey (EVENS) to look at changes in economic indicators across ethnic groups and gender. We report heterogeneity in flexible employment rates within the non-White group and between the non-White and the White British group. By using a conditional decomposition method, we conclude that those ethnic minority groups who were disproportionately on flexible contracts experienced worse economic effects than the White British group. EVENS used web-based interviews and computer-assisted (CATI) telephone interviews. EVENS aimed to better represent ethnic minorities compared to existing data sets regarding the range of represented minority population groups. To cite from the online Abstract of EVENS: "....EVENS survey used an 'open' survey approach, which requires participants to opt-in to the survey instead of probability-based approaches that invite individuals to participate following their identification within a pre-defined sampling frame. This 'open' approach sought to overcome some of the limitations of probability-based methods in order to reach a large number and diverse mix of people from religious and ethnic minorities." (UK Data Service: SN-9116)

Within the field of periodontal therapy, the incidence of marginal gingival recession is a well-known finding that highlights the significance of adopting clinically sound root coverage strategies for successful treatment plans. Among these methods, Iwano Y.'s 2013 introduction of the Bidirectionally Positioned Flap (BPF) offers a unique strategy that merits further study. Thus the present study aims to evaluate the clinical results of BPF versus the conventional Coronally Advanced Flap (CAF) for treating isolated gingival recessions that fit into Miller's Class I category. For this six-month clinical study, sixteen patients with a mean age of 41.8 years demonstrating such recessions were included in the study. Throughout the study, a number of clinical parameters were carefully documented, including the plaque index (PI), gingival thickness (GT), recession height (RH), probing depth (PD), clinical attachment level (CAL), keratinized tissue height (KTH), recession height (RH), and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS). Six months later, both treatment methods showed considerable root coverage (P < 0.01), with an average coverage of 2.5 mm for the BPF group and 2.38 mm for the CAF group. Remarkably, there was no discernible statistically significant variation in the relative loss in height among the two treatments. In addition, there were no statistically significant differences in the assessments of gingival thickness (GT), probing depth (PD), keratinized tissue height (KTH), and clinical attachment level (CAL) between the treatment groups. The results of this investigation highlight the effectiveness of BPF and CAF in improving root coverage for a six-month duration, with BPF showing promise as a treatment for isolated gingival recession.