By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

During a 2025 survey in the United States, marketers' optimism level about the American economy declined to **** points, down from **** in Fall 2024. Optimism was at its lowest level since Fall 2022 - that year, Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to global economic uncertainty, while high inflation and recession fears also added to a general negative sentiment.

In 2023, it was estimated that over 161 million Americans were in some form of employment, while 3.64 percent of the total workforce was unemployed. This was the lowest unemployment rate since the 1950s, although these figures are expected to rise in 2023 and beyond. 1980s-2010s Since the 1980s, the total United States labor force has generally risen as the population has grown, however, the annual average unemployment rate has fluctuated significantly, usually increasing in times of crisis, before falling more slowly during periods of recovery and economic stability. For example, unemployment peaked at 9.7 percent during the early 1980s recession, which was largely caused by the ripple effects of the Iranian Revolution on global oil prices and inflation. Other notable spikes came during the early 1990s; again, largely due to inflation caused by another oil shock, and during the early 2000s recession. The Great Recession then saw the U.S. unemployment rate soar to 9.6 percent, following the collapse of the U.S. housing market and its impact on the banking sector, and it was not until 2016 that unemployment returned to pre-recession levels. 2020s 2019 had marked a decade-long low in unemployment, before the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic saw the sharpest year-on-year increase in unemployment since the Great Depression, and the total number of workers fell by almost 10 million people. Despite the continuation of the pandemic in the years that followed, alongside the associated supply-chain issues and onset of the inflation crisis, unemployment reached just 3.67 percent in 2022 - current projections are for this figure to rise in 2023 and the years that follow, although these forecasts are subject to change if recent years are anything to go by.

According to the survey conducted among 134 global brand leaders, 49 percent of respondents plan to slightly or significantly increase their expenses with advertising and marketing in 2025, compared to 2024. Over one-third of respondents reported they intend to maintain their media budget in the same level as in the previous year.

Business Confidence in the United States increased to 49 points in June from 48.50 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for All Employees, Manufacturing (MANEMP) from Jan 1939 to Jun 2025 about headline figure, establishment survey, manufacturing, employment, and USA.

The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in May 2025 after shrinking by 0.3 percent in April. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 4.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

This dataset contains files and code associated with the article: McCarroll, R. J., Kennedy, D. M., & Ierodiaconou, D. (2025). Morphologically adaptive modelling of sea level rise induced coastal erosion impacts for south-East Australia. Marine Geology, 107602.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2025.107602

Email: jak.mccarroll@gmail.com

ShoreTrans code on Github: https://github.com/jakmccarroll/ShoreTrans

_

TITLE: Morphologically adaptive modelling of sea level rise induced coastal erosion impact for south-east Australia

AUTHORS: Robert Jak McCarroll¹, David M. Kennedy¹, Daniel Ierodiaconou²

¹ School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia

² School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Warrnambool, Victoria, Australia

ABSTRACT
Sea level rise induced coastal erosion represents an impending threat to the world's coastlines. A critical control on coastal recession is the onshore accommodation space available for a receding beach to occupy. Despite the importance of morphologic controls, coastal change models applied at regional-scale over ~100-year time-frames typically address a limited range of coastal morphologies.

ShoreTrans is a shoreface translation model that kinematically projects profile change, based on inputs of sea level rise and sediment budget imbalances. This work presents updates to enable broad-scale model application (1000's km), automating classification and adapting to the morphology of individual profiles, including: (1) dunes; (2) cliffs; (3) bluffs and ridges; (4) inter-subtidal rock outcrops; (5) protection structures; (6) low-energy environments; and (7) short-term dune erosion. The model was applied to Victoria, Australia (2000 km coastline, 30 m spaced transects), for a scenario of 1 m sea level rise from 2010 to 2100, using a single time step and simplified treatment of uncertainty and sediment budget. Shoreline trends and variability were determined from satellite extracted shorelines.

Mean projected shoreline recession of 43 m is 20 % lower than for a simple parameterization (uncertainty range 58 % lower to 8 % higher), due to sediment transfer from the backshore to the active shoreface (e.g., dune encroachment) and hard backshores restricting shoreline movements (e.g., cliffs, seawalls). Low dunes exhibited the highest recession rates, due to rollover (68 m long-term recession). Total setback extent, including short-term variability, is projected to exceed 182 m in 5 % of low dune areas. High rates of beach loss were associated with beaches fronting hard cliffs (55 % beach loss) and seawalls (80 %). The worst impacts are expected for rocky, sediment poor coastlines, such as the Great Ocean Road Surf Coast, where a loss of 30 % to 50 % of beaches is projected, not accounting for infrastructure and potential management interventions.

Automated morphological adaptation represents a step-change for regional scale coastal change assessment. The method also allows for coupling of future erosion to inundation hazards, by interpolating a 3D surface of future morphology. At local-scale, ShoreTrans is suitable to add to hybrid models, providing a means to improve future coastal change projections.

Keywords: ShoreTrans, Coastal recession, Cliff recession, Coastal hazards, Shoreline modelling, Shoreface translation

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Germany contracted 0.10 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global 3D Metrology Market with Recession market size is USD 10198.3 million in 2024 and will expand at a compound yearly growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6% from 2024 to 2031. Market Dynamics of 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market

Key Drivers for 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market

Rising Use of 3D Data for Modeling and Analysis to Increase the Demand Globally - During recessions, industries increasingly rely on 3D data for modeling and analysis to optimize processes and minimize costs. 3D metrology facilitates accurate measurement and inspection, ensuring quality while reducing waste. As businesses seek efficiency enhancements, the demand for precise 3D metrology solutions grows. Leveraging advanced technologies for data-driven decision-making becomes imperative during economic downturns, propelling the market forward despite challenges, as it enables industries to maintain competitiveness and streamline operations. Rising Demand for QC and Inspection Applications in Automotive Sector.

Accelerating product utility across other end-use industries to drive global market trends

Escalating product penetration in the defense industry will positively contribute to the growth of the perfluoropolyether (PFPE) market worldwide. Besides this, the booming commercial vehicle industry is expected to drive the demand for perfluoropolyether (PFPE) in the future. A major application of high-quality lubricants in automotive & electronics industry will adorn global market trends. With the applications of PFPE lubricants in leather, plastic, and paper, the demand for perfluoropolyether (PFPE) worldwide will grow lucratively in the foreseeable future. Exponential growth in air cargo carriage activities with growing air travel will escalate global market demand. Also, an increase in per capita income and cost advantage will spread the size of the global market. Introduction of environmental-friendly products and new products will introduce a paradigm shift to the global market. For instance, In May 2022, DuPont introduced MOLYKOTE® Multilub Synthetic High Performance Grease. (Source: - https://www.dupont.com/products/molykote-multilub-high-performance-grease.html ) The new product is expected to find a range of applications in gearboxes, springs, actuators, spindles, and centrifuge pumps.

Key Restraints for 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market

High Initial Investments- High initial investments in 3D metrology equipment can limit market growth during recessions as companies may delay or reduce capital expenditures to conserve cash flow. Lack of Skilled Workers- The lack of skilled workers in the 3D metrology market during a recession constrains its growth potential as industries struggle to fully utilize advanced metrology technologies for quality control and process optimization.

Key Opportunity of Market.

Miniaturization, environmentally friendly fluorochemistries, and aerospace uses can be an Opportunity.

Electronics and medical devices offer ample opportunities as PFPE facilitates lubrication of micro components without outgassing or residue as devices shrink and performance requirements rise. PFPE-based greases and fluids boast superior oxidative and thermal stability as 5G infrastructure continues to grow and wafer-level production intensifies. Satellite aerospace systems, spacecraft actuators, and vacuum-sealed mechanisms are increasingly relying on PFPE as well. An increasing focus on PFPE as a more secure fluorinated alternative to banned PFAS compounds aligns with industry sustainability initiatives. In addition, new business avenues are emerging in the domains of optics, 3D printing, and nanofabrication technological streams because of the advancements in PFPE-functional coatings, emulsions, and composite material additives. Introduction of the 3D Metrology Market with Recession Market

The 3D metrology market, encompassing technologies like laser scanning, coordinate measuring machines (CMM), and optical digitizers, plays an important role in ensuring precision and accuracy across industries. Amid economic downturns, the 3D metrology sector tends to display resilience due to its indispensable nature in manufacturing, automotive, aerospace, and healthcare. During recessions, cost optimization becomes imperative, driving the demand for efficient quality control and inspection solutions provided by 3D metrolog...

The UK economy grew by 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 0.1 percent growth in the previous quarter. After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy grew strongly in the first half of 2024, growing by 0.8 percent in Q1, and 0.4 percent in Q2, with growth slowing in the second half of the year. In the third quarter of 2020 the UK experienced record setting growth of 16.8 percent, which itself followed the record 20.3 percent contraction in Q2 2020. Growing economy key to Labour's plans Since winning the 2024 general election, the UK's Labour Party have seen their popularity fall substantially. In February 2025, the government's approval rating fell to a low of -54 percent, making them almost as disliked as the Conservatives just before the last election. A string of unpopular policies since taking office have taken a heavy toll on support for the government. Labour hope they can reverse their declining popularity by growing the economy, which has underperformed for several years, and when measured in GDP per capita, fell in 2023, and 2024. Steady labor market trends set to continue? After a robust 2022, the UK labor market remained resilient throughout 2023 and 2024. The unemployment rate at the end of 2024 was 4.4 percent, up from four percent at the start of the year, but still one of the lowest rates on record. While the average number of job vacancies has been falling since a May 2022 peak, there was a slight increase in January 2025 when compared with the previous month. The more concerning aspect of the labor market, from the government's perspective, are the high levels of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness, which reached a peak of 2.84 million in late 2023, and remained at high levels throughout 2024.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by *** percent and is expected to grow by just *** percent in 2025 and by *** percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to *** percent in 2027, and then grow by ***, and *** percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge *** percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by *** percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the *** percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from *** percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of *** percent predicated, up from *** percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be *** percent instead of *** percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent in Q3 and by *** percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

Graph and download economic data for Initial Claims (ICSA) from 1967-01-07 to 2025-07-26 about initial claims, headline figure, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Employment-Population Ratio (EMRATIO) from Jan 1948 to May 2025 about employment-population ratio, civilian, 16 years +, household survey, employment, population, and USA.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Italy expanded 0.40 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Italy GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Austria expanded 0.10 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Austria GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.