The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was a period of severe macroeconomic instability for the United States and the global economy more generally. The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of a number of financial institutions who were deeply involved in the U.S. mortgage market and associated credit markets. Beginning in the Summer of 2007, a number of banks began to report issues with increasing mortgage delinquencies and the problem of not being able to accurately price derivatives contracts which were based on bundles of these U.S. residential mortgages. By the end of 2008, U.S. financial institutions had begun to fail due to their exposure to the housing market, leading to one of the deepest recessions in the history of the United States and to extensive government bailouts of the financial sector.

Subprime and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market

The early 2000s had seen explosive growth in the U.S. mortgage market, as credit became cheaper due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in the aftermath of the 2001 'Dot Com' Crash, as well as because of the increasing globalization of financial flows which directed funds into U.S. financial markets. Lower mortgage rates gave incentive to financial institutions to begin lending to riskier borrowers, using so-called 'subprime' loans. These were loans to borrowers with poor credit scores, who would not have met the requirements for a conventional mortgage loan. In order to hedge against the risk of these riskier loans, financial institutions began to use complex financial instruments known as derivatives, which bundled mortgage loans together and allowed the risk of default to be sold on to willing investors. This practice was supposed to remove the risk from these loans, by effectively allowing credit institutions to buy insurance against delinquencies. Due to the fraudulent practices of credit ratings agencies, however, the price of these contacts did not reflect the real risk of the loans involved. As the reality of the inability of the borrowers to repay began to kick in during 2007, the financial markets which traded these derivatives came under increasing stress and eventually led to a 'sudden stop' in trading and credit intermediation during 2008.

Market Panic and The Great Recession

As borrowers failed to make repayments, this had a knock-on effect among financial institutions who were highly leveraged with financial instruments based on the mortgage market. Lehman Brothers, one of the world's largest investment banks, failed on September 15th 2008, causing widespread panic in financial markets. Due to the fear of an unprecedented collapse in the financial sector which would have untold consequences for the wider economy, the U.S. government and central bank, The Fed, intervened the following day to bailout the United States' largest insurance company, AIG, and to backstop financial markets. The crisis prompted a deep recession, known colloquially as The Great Recession, drawing parallels between this period and The Great Depression. The collapse of credit intermediation in the economy lead to further issues in the real economy, as business were increasingly unable to pay back loans and were forced to lay off staff, driving unemployment to a high of almost 10 percent in 2010. While there has been criticism of the U.S. government's actions to bailout the financial institutions involved, the actions of the government and the Fed are seen by many as having prevented the crisis from spiraling into a depression of the magnitude of The Great Depression.

Over 44.7 million Americans carry student loan debt, with the total amount valued at approximately $1.31 trillion (Quarterly Report, 2019). Ergo, consumer spending, a factor of GDP, is stifled and negatively impacts the economy (Frizell, 2014, p. 22). This study examined the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of a recession in the near future, as well as the effects of proposed student loan forgiveness policies through the use of a created model. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s website (FRED) was used to extract data regarding total GDP per quarter and student loan debt per quarter ("Federal Reserve Economic Data," 2019). Through the combination of the student loan debt per quarter and total GDP per quarter datasets, the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter was calculated and fitted to a logistic curve. Future quarterly values for total GDP and the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter were found through Long Short Term Models and Euler’s Method, respectively. Through the creation of a probability of recession index, the probability of recession per quarter was compared to the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter to construct an exponential regression model. Utilizing a primarily quantitative method of analysis, the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter was found to be strongly associated[p < 1.26696* 10-8]with the probability of recession per quarter(p(R)), with the p(R) tending to peak as the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter strayed away from the carrying capacity of the logistic curve. Inputting the student loan debt forgiveness policies of potential congressional bills proposed by lawmakers found that eliminating 49.7 % and 36.7% of student loan debt would reduce the recession probabilities to be 1.73545*10-29% and 9.74474*10-25%, respectively.

The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, was created by the U.S. congress in 1938, in order to maintain liquidity and stability in the domestic mortgage market. The company is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), meaning that while it was a publicly traded company for most of its history, it was still supported by the federal government. While there is no legally binding guarantee of shares in GSEs or their securities, it is generally acknowledged that the U.S. government is highly unlikely to let these enterprises fail. Due to these implicit guarantees, GSEs are able to access financing at a reduced cost of interest. Fannie Mae's main activity is the purchasing of mortgage loans from their originators (banks, mortgage brokers etc.) and packaging them into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to ease the access of U.S. homebuyers to housing credit. The early 2000s U.S. mortgage finance boom During the early 2000s, Fannie Mae was swept up in the U.S. housing boom which eventually led to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The association's stated goal of increasing access of lower income families to housing finance coalesced with the interests of private mortgage lenders and Wall Street investment banks, who had become heavily reliant on the housing market to drive profits. Private lenders had begun to offer riskier mortgage loans in the early 2000s due to low interest rates in the wake of the "Dot Com" crash and their need to maintain profits through increasing the volume of loans on their books. The securitized products created by these private lenders did not maintain the standards which had traditionally been upheld by GSEs. Due to their market share being eaten into by private firms, however, the GSEs involved in the mortgage markets began to also lower their standards, resulting in a 'race to the bottom'. The fall of Fannie Mae The lowering of lending standards was a key factor in creating the housing bubble, as mortgages were now being offered to borrowers with little or no ability to repay the loans. Combined with fraudulent practices from credit ratings agencies, who rated the junk securities created from these mortgage loans as being of the highest standard, this led directly to the financial panic that erupted on Wall Street beginning in 2007. As the U.S. economy slowed down in 2006, mortgage delinquency rates began to spike. Fannie Mae's losses in the mortgage security market in 2006 and 2007, along with the losses of the related GSE 'Freddie Mac', had caused its share value to plummet, stoking fears that it may collapse. On September 7th 2008, Fannie Mae was taken into government conservatorship along with Freddie Mac, with their stocks being delisted from stock exchanges in 2010. This act was seen as an unprecedented direct intervention into the economy by the U.S. government, and a symbol of how far the U.S. housing market had fallen.

As of March 2025, outstanding bank loans of banks in Japan amounted to around ***** trillion Japanese yen, up from about ***** trillion yen in the previous year. Bank lending in Japan Domestic credit granted to the private sector by commercial banks accounted for around ***** percent of Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023. Loans of regional banks made up the largest share of outstanding domestic loans of financial institutions in Japan, followed by city banks, which are the largest banks in Japan. This reflects the large number of regional banks and their role in providing financial services to individuals and small and mid-sized businesses at the regional level. Regional banks were identified as main banks by a significant proportion of businesses in 2021. This was especially evident in rural areas, while a large share of companies in more urban regions such as Kanto and Kinki identified city banks as their main banks. Non-performing loan problem in the 1990s As a consequence of the burst of the asset price bubble in the 1980s and the recession in the following decade, Japan was confronted with a non-performing loan problem that lasted into the early 2000s. The financial crisis led to a number of banks and financial institutions going bankrupt, and a high ratio of non-performing loans. During that time, several trillion yen of bad loans were disposed of. To strengthen the financial system and establish regularities for dealing with failing financial institutions, the Financial Reconstruction Act (FRA) was passed in 1998. In more recent years, the non-performing loan ratio of banks has stood at around *** percent.

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The survey asked respondents to compare their expenditure and consumer behaviour (concerning e.g. food, housing, leisure activities, alcohol, travel) to those of the average consumer. The respondents were asked which things and household items they considered necessary and what they would do if they had more money. The survey carried a set of attitudinal statements about consumption and lifestyle (e.g. "I like to drink wine when eating" or "Quality is more important to me than price"). Some questions covered on what grounds respondents made decisions on economical, family or work matters. The extent to which the deep recession of the early 1990s had affected the household was examined. One theme pertained to community identification: whether the respondents felt they were part of their family, workplace, community, Finnish society, and how much their way of spending or borrowing money, etc. was similar to that of other people. The respondents were asked to define different generations and to assess whether there was any conflict between them. They rated the importance of various things (e.g. self-respect, world peace, prosperity, independence) to themselves and the safety of their own life, community, society and the world. Views were probed on how much insecurity e.g. pollution, cuts to certain public services and increasing the national debt would cause. Some questions covered personal feelings of insecurity concerning e.g. livelihood, finances, relationships. The respondents evaluated risks in the present-day society and rated the risk involved in different actions (e.g. contracting a loan, travelling, speeding, flying, using drugs, casual sex). The survey contained questions about the income, expenditure, savings and debts of the respondents and the household. Credit card use, defaults on payments/debts and the resulting bad credit were charted. The respondents were asked what their methods of coping were when short of money, that is, whether they would borrow, reduce expenditure, gamble, etc. Background variables included respondents' sex, tenure, marital status, household size, number of children, basic and vocational education, economic activity, occupation of the respondent, the spouse and parents, experiences of unemployment, financial circumstances, social class, voting in elections and party preference.

Debt Consolidation Market Size And Forecast

Debt Consolidation Market size was valued at USD 1351 Billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 3100 Billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 12.49% during the forecast period 2024-2031.

Global Debt Consolidation Market Drivers

The debt consolidation market is influenced by various market drivers that affect consumer behavior, financial institutions, and the overall economic environment. Here are some of the key drivers:

Rising Debt Levels: Increasing levels of consumer debt, including credit cards, personal loans, and student loans, drive individuals to seek debt consolidation solutions to manage their financial obligations more effectively. Economic Conditions: Fluctuations in the economy, such as rising inflation, recession, or unemployment rates, can lead consumers to seek debt consolidation services as they struggle to meet their financial commitments. Interest Rates: The prevailing interest rates significantly affect the demand for debt consolidation. When interest rates are low, consumers are more inclined to consolidate their debts at favorable rates. Conversely, higher rates may deter consolidation efforts.

Global Debt Consolidation Market Restraints

The debt consolidation market, while presenting various opportunities for growth, also faces several market restraints. Here are some of the notable constraints:

High Interest Rates: If interest rates on debt consolidation loans are higher than the existing debt, consumers may be discouraged from pursuing consolidation. This can limit the market's growth potential. Lack of Consumer Awareness: Many consumers may not fully understand the benefits of debt consolidation or may perceive it as merely a temporary solution to financial problems. Lack of financial literacy can deter individuals from seeking these services.

Between 1946 and 1961, the United States distributed over 44.5 billion U.S. dollars to Western European countries in the form of loans or grants. 27.3 billion was given in the form of economic assistance, while 17.2 billion was given as military assistance. The largest sums were given to the United Kingdom and France, who received 8.8 and 8.4 billion dollars respectively. Italy and West Germany, who had been enemies of the U.S. during the Second World War, received the next-largest sums, with both totals over five billion dollars. Disproportional distributions Such grants and loans, particularly those of the Marshall Plan, were distributed on a (fairly rough) per capita basis, although major industrial powers were given disproportionately higher sums, as it was believed that their successful recovery would drive prosperity across the region. Turkey and Greece were also given relatively high sums due to their political and strategic significance during the Cold War, with Turkey receiving significantly more in military assistance than economic. In contrast, Spain received a disproportionately low sum - despite being neutral during the war, Franco's fascist government was unpopular in the U.S. and was excluded from aid in the years immediately following the war; the Spanish government's strong anti-communist saw the U.S. revert this policy with the Pact of Madrid in 1953. The Golden Age The "Golden Age" was a period of relatively uninterrupted economic growth between the end of the Second World War in 1945 and the Recession of 1973-1975. During this time, Western Europe experienced its most economically successful period in recorded history. This success was made possible by various factors, including an increase in European integration, the expansion of welfare and healthcare systems, and widespread industrialization. The United States played a key role in these developments; however, the modern historical consensus is that the largest impact was not through government investment, but rather private investment and the American influence on business practice, consumer buying behavior, and international policy (critics at the time referred to this as Coca-colonization). Along with the new-found peace following decades of war and instability, these factors combined to increase living standards and wages among the public, who generally embraced capitalism and the opportunity to spend their new-found disposable income.

In 2020, 34 percent of all auto loans were expected to be non-prime originations, up one percent from 2019. However, 41 percent of all auto loans were non-prime originations at the start of the recession in 2007. Non-prime loans are similar to subprime loans in that both are loan products accessible for those with low credit scores, however the average credit score needed for a non-prime loan in 2020 was 80 points higher than the average score needed for a subprime loan in 2008. Income documentation is required to obtain non-prime credit, whereas none was needed for a subprime loan in 2008.

Pawn shops have faltered in recent years, as economic stabilization following the pandemic curtailed their appeal in the broader market. Prior to 2020, strong performance in the broader economy reduced demand for pawn loans from low-income consumers that experienced improvements in their financial positions. Consumers who fall below the poverty line represent the primary source of demand for pawn loans and when their number is reduced, pawn loan demand declines. While merchandise sales grew in line with rising consumers, large-scale fiscal programs by the federal government amid the pandemic curtailed demand for pawn loans by low income consumers who lost their jobs or experienced reduced incomes otherwise. In recent years, however, higher inflationary pressures did boost some pawn shops, as low-income consumers hardest hit by inflation looked to pawn shops to raise money quickly. Despite this trend, revenue fell at a CAGR of 2.4% to an estimated $3.0 billion over the past five years, including an estimated 0.1% boost in 2024. Pawn shops have endured countervailing trends. Improving economic performance outside of the pandemic-era recession resulted in reduced demand for pawn loans, but increased demand for merchandise sales. However, as inflation has risen, prices on valuable commodities such as gold spiked, resulting in greater consumer interest to sell physical goods and commodities in exchange for cash, which also stabilized profit. Moving forward, pawn shops face an uncertain future. Tighter labor markets and rising per capita disposable income will constrain pawn lending and reduce revenue generated among pawn loans, particularly as credit becomes more accessible with the anticipated declines in interest rates. However, these trends will continue supporting development in the retail merchandise segment, keeping revenue from falling dramatically. Also, lower-income consumers, particularly in larger cities, will continue to depend on pawn loans, providing a relatively stable market for the industry. The proliferation of technology and new concepts like online pawn shops will enable sales and pawn agreements digitally, boosting servicer efficiency and cutting operational expenses. Over the next five years, revenue is expected to slip at a CAGR of 0.7% to an estimated $2.9 billion.

The cooperative banking sector has developed negatively over the last five years. Industry revenue, which is made up of interest and commission income, has fallen by an average of 0.6% per year since 2019. The poor earnings performance in the years 2019 to 2021 is primarily due to the low level of interest rates and strong competition in the market. As a result of the financial crisis in 2008 and the euro crisis in 2010, the European Central Bank (ECB) was forced to keep lowering the key interest rate until it reached a low of 0% in March 2016. In 2020, the far-reaching negative effects of the coronavirus crisis prevented an increase in the key interest rate due to the associated risk of a Europe-wide recession. As a result, interest income in the sector fell, which caused difficulties for smaller cooperative banks in particular.In the current year, the sector should be able to increase commission income from the home loan and savings business and interest income from overdraft facilities and variable-interest loans in the short term, as demand is increasingly shifting from building loans to home loan and savings products due to high interest rates and overdraft facilities are increasingly in demand to cover the high cost of living. Overall, turnover in the sector is expected to increase by 0.3% year-on-year to 29.6 billion euros. However, the poor business and consumer climate is weighing on the cooperative banks. In addition, the over-indebtedness ratio is likely to stagnate or even rise slightly in the current year, which is why there is a risk that the number of non-performing loans will increase. This development is likely to cause problems for the cooperative banks.IBISWorld expects the cooperative banks' interest and commission income to fall by an average of 0.7% per year over the next five years and thus amount to 28.7 billion euros in 2029. As the banking market in Germany, which is highly fragmented by international standards, is saturated, significant changes are to be expected in the coming years. It can be assumed that banks will increasingly merge in order to increase their competitiveness, meaning that the previous consolidation of the sector is likely to accelerate. In addition, digitalisation will continue to gain in importance and the successful introduction of innovative and modern products as well as the expansion of sales channels will be decisive for a company's success.

The net interest income of a bank is the difference between the amount of interest the bank earns from its loans and investments, and the amount of interest the bank pays on its depositors' accounts and its borrowing. Simply put, it's the profit a bank makes from lending money. During economic downturns and recessions, there is generally a decrease in the demand for loans, leading to lower interest earnings for the banks. This was the case, for instance, after the global financial crisis in 2007-2008. Another decrease in the interest income of the leading European banks took place during and after the euro area recession in 2012. The next economic contraction, that was caused by COVID-19 in 2020, did not influence the net interest income of the observed banks drastically, although there was a slight decrease between 2020 and 2021 at three out of the four observed banks. In 2022, all observed banks saw an increase in the net interest income.

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Community Banking Market Size 2025-2029

The community banking market size is forecast to increase by USD 253 billion at a CAGR of 5.8% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant shifts driven by the increasing adoption of microlending in developing nations and the rising preference for digital platforms. The microlending, a segment of community banking, is gaining traction in developing economies due to its ability to provide small loans to individuals and small businesses who lack access to traditional banking services. This trend is expected to continue, fueled by the growing financial inclusion efforts and increasing economic activity in these regions. Simultaneously, the community banking sector is witnessing a surge in the adoption of digital platforms.
The digital community banking services, such as mobile banking and online lending, are becoming increasingly popular due to their convenience and accessibility. This trend is particularly noticeable among younger demographics, who are more likely to use digital channels for banking. However, the market also faces challenges. One of the most significant obstacles is the lack of awareness about community banking services. Many potential customers, particularly in rural and underserved areas, are unaware of the benefits and availability of community banking services. Addressing this challenge will require targeted marketing efforts and community outreach programs.

What will be the Size of the Community Banking Market during the forecast period?

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The market continues to evolve, with advanced technology playing a pivotal role in shaping the landscape. Financial institutions, both large and small, are integrating microfinance, mobile banking, and remote deposit capture to cater to diverse customer needs. In the micropolitan areas, community banks have gained prominence, offering personalized services to rural and agricultural sectors. The economic recession led to a surge in digital adoption, with mobile banking becoming increasingly popular. However, the competition remains fierce, with big banks also investing heavily in technology to retain their customer base. The ongoing market dynamics underscore the need for continuous innovation and adaptation to stay competitive.
Community banks, with their focus on local markets and relationships, are well-positioned to leverage these trends and offer competitive rates and fees to attract and retain customers. The integration of advanced technology enables seamless transactions and enhanced customer experience, further bolstering their position in the market. The future of community banking lies in its ability to balance tradition and innovation, offering personalized services while embracing digital transformation.

How is this Community Banking Industry segmented?

The community banking industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Area

  Metropolitan
  Rural and micropolitan


Sector

  Small business
  CRE
  Agriculture


Service Type

  Retail banking
  Commercial banking
  Wealth management and financial advisory
  Others


Delivery Model

  Branch Banking
  Online Banking
  Mobile Banking


Institution Type

  Credit Unions
  Local Banks


Geography

  North America

    US
    Canada
    Mexico


  Europe

    France
    Germany
    UK


  Middle East and Africa

    UAE


  APAC

    Australia
    China
    India
    Japan
    South Korea


  South America

    Brazil


  Rest of World (ROW)

By Area Insights

The metropolitan segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

In the dynamic world of financial services, community banks in the US continue to gain traction among consumers, particularly in rural and micropolitan areas where Big Banks may have a limited presence. While Big Banks dominate the market with their vast resources and broad reach, Community FIs cater to the unique needs of their local clientele. With the rise of advanced technology, Community banks have embraced digital banking solutions, including Internet banking, mobile banking, and remote deposit capture. Small businesses and agricultural sectors, integral to rural economies, benefit significantly from Community banks' personalized services and expertise. Despite the economic recession, these institutions have managed to maintain deposits through their strong relationships with customers.

Microlending, a niche offering, further distinguishes Community banks from their larger counterparts. Rates and fees remain crucial factors for customers, especially in a competitive market. Community banks often offer more competitive rates and lower fees compared to Big Banks, maki

After a period of gradual decline, the average annual rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States rose to **** percent in 2023, up from the record-low **** percent in 2021. In 2024, interest rates declined slightly. The rate for 15-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend. This was a result of the Federal Reserve increasing the bank rate - a measure introduced to tackle the rising inflation. U.S. home prices going through the roof Mortgage rates have a strong impact on the market – the lower the rate, the lower the loan repayment. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreasing after the Great Recession has stimulated the market and boosted home sales. Another problem consumers face is the fact that house prices are rising at an unaffordable level. The median sales price of a new home sold surged in 2021, while the median weekly earnings of a full-time employee maintained a more moderate increase. What are the differences between 15-year and 30-year mortgages? Two of the most popular loan terms available to homebuyers are the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The 30-year option appeals to more consumers because the repayment is spread out over 30 years, meaning the monthly payments are lower. Consumers choosing the 15-year option will have to pay higher monthly payments but benefit from lower interest rates.

In a 2019 analysis, Riverside, California was the most at risk of a housing downturn in a recession out of the 50 largest metro areas in the United States. The Californian metro area received an overall score of 72.8 percent, which was compiled after factors such as home price volatility and average home loan-to-value ratio were examined.

Mortgage brokers’ revenue is anticipated to climb at a compound annual rate of 4.5% over the five years through 2024-25 to £2.3 billion, including estimated growth of . Rising residential property transactions stimulated by government initiatives and rising house prices have driven industry growth. However, mortgage brokers have faced numerous obstacles, including downward pricing pressures from upstream lenders and a sharp downturn in the housing market as rising mortgage rates ramped up the cost of borrowing. After a standstill in residential real estate activity in the immediate aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak, ultra-low base rates, the release of pent-up demand, the introduction of tax incentives and buyers reassessing their living situation fuelled a V-shaped recovery in the housing market. This meant new mortgage approvals for house purchases boomed going into 2021-22, ramping up demand for brokerage services. 2022-23 was a year rife with economic headwinds, from rising interest rates to fears of a looming recession. Yet, the housing market stood its ground, with brokers continuing to benefit from rising prices. Elevated mortgage rates eventually hit demand for houses in the first half of 2023, contributing to lacklustre house price growth in 2023-24, hurting revenue, despite a modest recovery in the second half of the year as mortgage rates came down. In 2024-25, lower mortgage rates and an improving economic outlook support house prices, driving revenue growth. Mortgage brokers’ revenue is anticipated to swell at a compound annual rate of 5.3% over the five years through 2029-30 to £2.9 billion. Competition from direct lending will ramp up. Yet, growth opportunities remain. The emergence of niche mortgage products, like those targeting retired individuals and contractors, as well as green mortgages, will support revenue growth in the coming years. AI is also set to transform the industry, improving cost efficiencies by automating tasks like document verification, risk assessment and customer profiling.

Demand for financial asset broking services has been mixed over the past few years. Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity peaked in 2021, spurred by digitisation trends and low interest rates. More recently, inflationary pressures and subdued business sentiment have curtailed M&A plans. Still, demand in the technology and telecommunications sectors, driven by rising interest in AI, continues to offer respite within the broader M&A landscape. Meanwhile, mortgage broking plunged along with new residential mortgage lending over the two years through 2023-24 as dwindling housing affordability weighed on mortgage uptake. However, mortgage activity has since rebounded, as successive cash rate cuts from August 2024 have improved housing affordability and stimulated property transactions. New Zealand’s small market size and strong competition from foreign exchanges, notably the ASX, constrain industry revenue and profitability expansion. Despite rocky market conditions, some segments, like capital raising, have outperformed other investment banking services. Companies seeking to fortify their balance sheets amid a harsh trading environment have bolstered capital-raising activity. Amendments to the NZX’s listing rules in January 2024 to allow accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offers (ANREOs) have provided issuers more flexibility in their fundraising activities, further stimulating capital-raising activity. This shift and mounting appetite for capital-raising activity have partly offset other segments' decline. Overall, industry revenue is expected to nosedive at an annualised 5.8% to $556.4 million over the five years through 2025-26. Nevertheless, improved mortgage uptake and a widespread recovery in the housing market are anticipated to contribute to a 2.2% revenue rise in 2025-26. Stabilising macroeconomic conditions and easing inflation are forecast to improve economic and monetary policy certainty. This environment is likely to narrow valuation gaps between targets and acquirers, supporting a moderate uptick in M&A activity. Nonetheless, heightened recession concerns fuelled by recent US reciprocal tariffs are tempering investor sentiment, limiting the overall momentum for deals. New Zealand’s smaller market size and fewer opportunities on the NZX will continue driving domestic companies to list on larger exchanges like the ASX. While upcoming reforms – like the removal of the requirement to publish prospective financial information for NZX IPOs – may help stimulate the exchange's IPO pipeline, it's unlikely to match foreign markets’ capital appeal. Meanwhile, housing market policies like partially restoring interest deductibility for residential investment loans, shortening the bright-line test and increasing land availability are poised to reignite property transactions. That’s why revenue is projected to rise at an annualised 2.9% to $643.0 million through the end of 2030-31.

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To achieve the steady growth envisaged in this report, policy makers in developing Asia need to be vigilant of potential risks. Risks to Asia’s growth prospects could come from an unwieldy resolution of the Greek debt crisis, deepening recession in the Russian Federation, and possible capital outflows in response to the imminent rise in US interest rates. Falling oil prices have largely been a boon for the region’s outlook, supporting higher growth and low inflation. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a real risk that could produce a sudden reversal of prices. Authorities need to be ready to deploy mitigating policy responses if any of these risks materialize. Asia has seen rapid credit growth in recent years as total domestic debt nearly doubled from $18 trillion in 2009 to $34 trillion in 2013, with private borrowing accounting for the bulk of new debt. Although debt remains at manageable levels, policy makers must carefully attend to credit growth to ensure the maintenance of sound financial systems that are efficient, well-regulated, and inclusive—and therefore able to help sustain regional growth momentum and stability, as well as foster greater equity.

Sharia banks must face various operational risks, including shifting from macroeconomic, regulatory factors. The central bank has set minimum policies that must be met by sharia banking in managing risk management so that bank operations can run consistently and prudently under sharia principles. During the pandemic, the central bank has issued stimuli to maintain stability in the financial services sector through a financing restructuring policy for the increase in defaults in the economic recession in Indonesia. And also issued a policy to regulate the Macroprudential Intermediation Ratio to mitigate the impact of increasing risks on the domestic economy. Previous studies stated that macroprudential policies could reduce banks' risk level, but lack of research on Islamic banks. So this study aims to examine the Effectiveness Macroprudential Intermediation Instruments Policy on Mitigating Risk Management Sharia Bank. Using Vector Autoregression and Impulse Response to capture short and long-term impacts along with a causal relationship from 2015 to 2021. This study indicates that the Macroprudential Intermediation Policy effectiveness affects financing and liquidity risks. There's a causal relationship between the Macroprudential Intermediation Policy and financing risk and vice versa, but not in liquidity risk. The response due to shocks between the Macroprudential Intermediation Policy, financing risk, and liquidity risk are not convergent except in the short-term mismatch ratio. So, managing Effectiveness Macroprudential Intermediation Instruments Policy on Mitigating Risk Management Sharia Bank is vital for Islamic banking, because if a shock occurs in this process, the impact will occur in the long term and can lead to bankruptcy.