By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 1.64% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

United States Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data was reported at 0.840 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.180 % for Feb 2025. United States Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data is updated monthly, averaging 0.150 % from Jun 1967 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 694 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in Mar 2021. United States Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S089: Jeremy Piger Smooth Recession Probabilities.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities在2025-03达0.840%，相较于2025-02的0.180%有所增长。Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities数据按月度更新，1967-06至2025-03期间平均值为0.150%，共694份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2020-04，达100.000%，而历史最低值则出现于2021-03，为0.000%。CEIC提供的Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis，数据归类于Global Database的美国 – Table US.S089: Jeremy Piger Smooth Recession Probabilities。