U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026
- statista.com
Updated Jun 24, 2025
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EmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCiteStatista (2025). U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1239080/us-monthly-projected-recession-probability/Dataset updatedJun 24, 2025Time period coveredApr 2021 - Apr 2026Area coveredUnited StatesDescriptionBy April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.
- y
US Recession Probability
- ycharts.com
htmlUpdated Sep 5, 2025+ more versionsShareFacebookTwitterEmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCiteFederal Reserve Bank of New York (2025). US Recession Probability [Dataset]. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_recession_probabilityhtmlAvailable download formatsDataset updatedSep 5, 2025Dataset provided byYChartsAuthorsFederal Reserve Bank of New YorkLicensehttps://www.ycharts.com/termshttps://www.ycharts.com/terms
Time period coveredJan 31, 1960 - Aug 31, 2026Area coveredUnited StatesVariables measuredUS Recession ProbabilityDescriptionView monthly updates and historical trends for US Recession Probability. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Track economic data…
U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026
- tokrwards.com
Updated Oct 1, 2024ShareFacebookTwitterEmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCiteThe citation is currently not available for this dataset.Dataset updatedOct 1, 2024AuthorsAbigail TierneyArea coveredUnited StatesDescriptionBy April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of 30.45 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.
Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth
- clevelandfed.org
csvUpdated Mar 1, 2002ShareFacebookTwitterEmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCiteFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2002). Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth [Dataset]. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-predicted-gdp-growthcsvAvailable download formatsDataset updatedMar 1, 2002LicenseAttribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automaticallyDescriptionWe use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.
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FacebookTwitterEmailBy April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.