By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.48% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data was reported at 0.840 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.180 % for Feb 2025. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data is updated monthly, averaging 0.150 % from Jun 1967 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 694 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in Mar 2021. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S089: Jeremy Piger Smooth Recession Probabilities.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data was reported at 2.250 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.130 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 4.620 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.300 % in May 1981 and a record low of 0.010 % in Dec 2011. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

United States NBER: Recorded Recession data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Sep 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Recession Probabilities, Academic Data dataset contains the series for the following categories Recession Probabilities, Economic Policy Uncertainty

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data was reported at 3.150 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.000 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 5.750 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.320 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 1.500 % in Jul 2016. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data was reported at 0.856 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.829 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.413 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.146 % in Sep 1982 and a record low of -3.505 % in Dec 1980. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Over 44.7 million Americans carry student loan debt, with the total amount valued at approximately $1.31 trillion (Quarterly Report, 2019). Ergo, consumer spending, a factor of GDP, is stifled and negatively impacts the economy (Frizell, 2014, p. 22). This study examined the relationship between student loan debt and the probability of a recession in the near future, as well as the effects of proposed student loan forgiveness policies through the use of a created model. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s website (FRED) was used to extract data regarding total GDP per quarter and student loan debt per quarter ("Federal Reserve Economic Data," 2019). Through the combination of the student loan debt per quarter and total GDP per quarter datasets, the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter was calculated and fitted to a logistic curve. Future quarterly values for total GDP and the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter were found through Long Short Term Models and Euler’s Method, respectively. Through the creation of a probability of recession index, the probability of recession per quarter was compared to the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter to construct an exponential regression model. Utilizing a primarily quantitative method of analysis, the percentage of total GDP composed by student loan debt per quarter was found to be strongly associated[p < 1.26696* 10-8]with the probability of recession per quarter(p(R)), with the p(R) tending to peak as the percentage of total GDP composed of student loan debt per quarter strayed away from the carrying capacity of the logistic curve. Inputting the student loan debt forgiveness policies of potential congressional bills proposed by lawmakers found that eliminating 49.7 % and 36.7% of student loan debt would reduce the recession probabilities to be 1.73545*10-29% and 9.74474*10-25%, respectively.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield: Bond Equivalent data was reported at 2.294 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.171 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield: Bond Equivalent data is updated monthly, averaging 4.740 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 17.237 % in May 1981 and a record low of 0.010 % in Dec 2011. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield: Bond Equivalent data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

Recession Experience by Country.

This paper examines the association between the Great Recession and real assets among families with young children. Real assets such as homes and cars are key indicators of economic well-being that may be especially valuable to low-income families. Using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 4,898), we investigate the association between the city unemployment rate and home and car ownership and how the relationship varies by family structure (married, cohabiting, and single parents) and by race/ethnicity (White, Black, and Hispanic mothers). Using mother fixed-effects models, we find that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a -0.5 percentage point decline in the probability of home ownership and a -0.7 percentage point decline in the probability of car ownership. We also find that the recession was associated with lower levels of home ownership for cohabiting families and for Hispanic families, as well as lower car ownership among single mothers and among Black mothers, whereas no change was observed among married families or White households. Considering that homes and cars are the most important assets among middle and low-income households in the U.S., these results suggest that the rise in the unemployment rate during the Great Recession may have increased household asset inequality across family structures and race/ethnicities, limiting economic mobility, and exacerbating the cycle of poverty.

This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performances to those of a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model (MS-VAR, where the EPU is averaged over the months to produce quarterly values) and a Markov-switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The results show that the MF-MS-VAR fits the different recession regimes, and provides out-of-sample forecasts of recession probabilities which are more accurate than those derived from the MS-VAR and MS-AR models. The results highlight the importance of using high-frequency values of the EPU, and not averaging them to obtain quarterly values, when forecasting recessionary regimes for the U.S. economy.

We consider tests of forecast encompassing for probability forecasts, for both quadratic and logarithmic scoring rules. We propose test statistics for the null of forecast encompassing, present the limiting distributions of the test statistics, and investigate the impact of estimating the forecasting models' parameters on these distributions. The small-sample performance is investigated, in terms of small numbers of forecasts and model estimation sample sizes. We show the usefulness of the tests for the evaluation of recession probability forecasts from logit models with different leading indicators as explanatory variables, and for evaluating survey-based probability forecasts.

Predicted probabilities of Self-Rated health by recession experiences.