81 datasets found
  1. U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 24, 2025
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    Statista (2025). U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1239080/us-monthly-projected-recession-probability/
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 24, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Apr 2021 - Apr 2026
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

  2. F

    Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Apr 30, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHDUSRGDPBR
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    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Apr 30, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

  3. United States: duration of recessions 1854-2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Jul 4, 2024
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    Statista (2024). United States: duration of recessions 1854-2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1317029/us-recession-lengths-historical/
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    Dataset updated
    Jul 4, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

  4. F

    NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through...

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Jul 4, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USRECDP
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    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 4, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-citation-requiredhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-citation-required

    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (USRECDP) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-07-03 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

  5. Recession in America - impact on the unemployment rate

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 30, 2010
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    Statista (2010). Recession in America - impact on the unemployment rate [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/199311/the-impact-of-the-recession-on-the-unemployment-rate-in-the-us-by-industry/
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 30, 2010
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    This statistic shows, the impact of the recession on the unemployment rate in America by industry. Due to the recession, the unemployment rate increased from 2.7 percent to 5.7 percent in the education & health sector.

  6. Impact of recession on media budgets worldwide 2023

    • statista.com
    Updated Jan 6, 2023
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    Statista (2023). Impact of recession on media budgets worldwide 2023 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1338992/recession-impact-media-budget-worldwide/
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    Dataset updated
    Jan 6, 2023
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    Worldwide
    Description

    A survey conducted among global brands revealed that talks of a recession in 2023 influence their media budget decisions. Nearly 75 percent of the multinationals surveyed agreed or strongly agreed that an economic crisis is taken into consideration when planning advertising and market expenditures for 2023.

  7. F

    OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through...

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Dec 9, 2022
    + more versions
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    (2022). OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USARECDM
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    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Dec 9, 2022
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-citation-requiredhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-citation-required

    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (USARECDM) from 1947-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

  8. Recession in America - impact on the currently employed

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 30, 2010
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    Statista (2010). Recession in America - impact on the currently employed [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/199101/impact-of-the-recession-on-the-currently-employed/
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    Dataset updated
    Jun 30, 2010
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    May 11, 2010 - May 31, 2010
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    This graph shows, what kind of work-related hardship currently employed had to experience due to the recession. 11 percent of the respondents said, that they were forced to switch to part-time.

  9. Time gap between yield curve inversion and recession 1978-2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Aug 29, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Time gap between yield curve inversion and recession 1978-2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087216/time-gap-between-yield-curve-inversion-and-recession/
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    Dataset updated
    Aug 29, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

  10. United States Recession Probability

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Feb 15, 2025
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    CEICdata.com (2025). United States Recession Probability [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/united-states/recession-probability/recession-probability
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    Dataset updated
    Feb 15, 2025
    Dataset provided by
    CEIC Data
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Apr 1, 2018 - Mar 1, 2019
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

  11. Recession in America - impact on the unemployment rate

    • statista.com
    Updated Jun 30, 2010
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    Statista (2010). Recession in America - impact on the unemployment rate [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/199317/the-impact-of-the-recession-on-the-us-unemployment-rate-by-education/
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Jun 30, 2010
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    This statistic shows, the impact of the recession on the unemployment rate in America, by degree of education attained. Due to the recession, the unemployment rate of people who have a high school diploma increased from 4.6 percent to 10.7 percent.

  12. H

    The Universal Shape of Economic Recession and Recovery after a Shock...

    • dataverse.harvard.edu
    Updated Nov 26, 2009
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    Damien Challet; Sorin Solomon; Gur Yaari (2009). The Universal Shape of Economic Recession and Recovery after a Shock [Dataset] [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/PIGIJ8
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    CroissantCroissant is a format for machine-learning datasets. Learn more about this at mlcommons.org/croissant.
    Dataset updated
    Nov 26, 2009
    Dataset provided by
    Harvard Dataverse
    Authors
    Damien Challet; Sorin Solomon; Gur Yaari
    License

    CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedicationhttps://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    1980 - 2009
    Description

    We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recession; we also discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector toy model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy.

  13. o

    Replication data for: Understanding the Great Recession

    • openicpsr.org
    Updated Jan 1, 2015
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    Lawrence J. Christiano; Martin S. Eichenbaum; Mathias Trabandt (2015). Replication data for: Understanding the Great Recession [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.3886/E114095V1
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    Dataset updated
    Jan 1, 2015
    Dataset provided by
    American Economic Association
    Authors
    Lawrence J. Christiano; Martin S. Eichenbaum; Mathias Trabandt
    Description

    We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does a good job of accounting for the joint behavior of labor and goods markets, as well as inflation, during the Great Recession. According to the model the observed fall in total factor productivity and the rise in the cost of working capital played critical roles in accounting for the small drop in inflation that occurred during the Great Recession. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E52)

  14. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the...

    • ceicdata.com
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    CEICdata.com, United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/united-states/nberbased-recession-indicators/nberbased-recession-indicators-from-the-peak-through-the-trough
    Explore at:
    Dataset provided by
    CEIC Data
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Mar 13, 2025 - Mar 24, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

  15. Impact of inflation and recession on Halloween spending in the U.S. 2024

    • statista.com
    Updated Jan 14, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Impact of inflation and recession on Halloween spending in the U.S. 2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1497681/impact-of-inflation-and-recession-on-halloween-spending-usa/
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    Dataset updated
    Jan 14, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Aug 5, 2024
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    According to a survey conducted in August 2024, over 20 percent of consumers in the United States believed both inflation and a pending recession would impact their Halloween spending plans. About the same number of people said these economic changes would not influence their spending.

  16. Recession fear worldwide 2018-2022

    • statista.com
    Updated Jul 27, 2023
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    Statista (2023). Recession fear worldwide 2018-2022 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1332257/recession-fear-worldwide/
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    Dataset updated
    Jul 27, 2023
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Jan 2018 - Jul 2022
    Area covered
    Worldwide
    Description

    Between January 2018 and July 2022, global recession fear went through periods of sharp increases three times. First, in the summer of 2019, due to an escalation in U.S.-China relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market. The second peak of worldwide recession fear took place in March 2020, as a result of the alarming jump in the rate of COVID-19 cases. The fear of recession started to increase sharply again in February 2022, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated.

  17. United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the...

    • ceicdata.com
    Updated Mar 24, 2025
    + more versions
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    CEICdata.com (2025). United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/united-states/nberbased-recession-indicators/nberbased-recession-indi-frm-the-pd-ff-the-peak-through-the-trough
    Explore at:
    Dataset updated
    Mar 24, 2025
    Dataset provided by
    CEIC Data
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Mar 13, 2025 - Mar 24, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 30 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indi frm the Pd ff the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

  18. F

    Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Jul 3, 2025
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    (2025). Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
    Explore at:
    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 3, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

  19. M

    U.S. Recession Dates by GDP Indicator (1967-2024)

    • macrotrends.net
    csv
    Updated Jun 30, 2025
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    MACROTRENDS (2025). U.S. Recession Dates by GDP Indicator (1967-2024) [Dataset]. https://www.macrotrends.net/3120/us-recession-dates-by-gdp-indicator
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    csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jun 30, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    MACROTRENDS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    1967 - 2024
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The series assigns dates to U.S. recessions based on a mathematical model of the way that recessions differ from expansions. Whereas the NBER business cycle dates are based on a subjective assessment of a variety of indicators, the dates here are entirely mechanical and are calculated solely from historically reported GDP data. Whenever the GDP-based recession indicator index rises above 67%, the economy is determined to be in a recession. The date that the recession is determined to have begun is the first quarter prior to that date for which the inference from the mathematical model using all data available at that date would have been above 50%. The next time the GDP-based recession indicator index falls below 33%, the recession is determined to be over, and the last quarter of the recession is the first quarter for which the inference from the mathematical model using all available data at that date would have been below 50%.

    For more information about this series visit http://econbrowser.com/recession-index.

  20. Great Recession: unemployment rate in the G7 countries 2007-2011

    • statista.com
    Updated Sep 2, 2024
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    Statista (2024). Great Recession: unemployment rate in the G7 countries 2007-2011 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1346779/unemployment-rate-g7-great-recession/
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    Dataset updated
    Sep 2, 2024
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    2007 - 2011
    Area covered
    Worldwide
    Description

    With the collapse of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis on Wall Street in 2007 and 2008, economies across the globe began to enter into deep recessions. What had started out as a crisis centered on the United States quickly became global in nature, as it became apparent that not only had the economies of other advanced countries (grouped together as the G7) become intimately tied to the U.S. financial system, but that many of them had experienced housing and asset price bubbles similar to that in the U.S.. The United Kingdom had experienced a huge inflation of housing prices since the 1990s, while Eurozone members (such as Germany, France and Italy) had financial sectors which had become involved in reckless lending to economies on the periphery of the EU, such as Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Other countries, such as Japan, were hit heavily due their export-led growth models which suffered from the decline in international trade. Unemployment during the Great Recession As business and consumer confidence crashed, credit markets froze, and international trade contracted, the unemployment rate in the most advanced economies shot up. While four to five percent is generally considered to be a healthy unemployment rate, nearing full employment in the economy (when any remaining unemployment is not related to a lack of consumer demand), many of these countries experienced rates at least double that, with unemployment in the United States peaking at almost 10 percent in 2010. In large countries, unemployment rates of this level meant millions or tens of millions of people being out of work, which led to political pressures to stimulate economies and create jobs. By 2012, many of these countries were seeing declining unemployment rates, however, in France and Italy rates of joblessness continued to increase as the Euro crisis took hold. These countries suffered from having a monetary policy which was too tight for their economies (due to the ECB controlling interest rates) and fiscal policy which was constrained by EU debt rules. Left with the option of deregulating their labor markets and pursuing austerity policies, their unemployment rates remained over 10 percent well into the 2010s. Differences in labor markets The differences in unemployment rates at the peak of the crisis (2009-2010) reflect not only the differences in how economies were affected by the downturn, but also the differing labor market institutions and programs in the various countries. Countries with more 'liberalized' labor markets, such as the United States and United Kingdom experienced sharp jumps in their unemployment rate due to the ease at which employers can lay off workers in these countries. When the crisis subsided in these countries, however, their unemployment rates quickly began to drop below those of the other countries, due to their more dynamic labor markets which make it easier to hire workers when the economy is doing well. On the other hand, countries with more 'coordinated' labor market institutions, such as Germany and Japan, experiences lower rates of unemployment during the crisis, as programs such as short-time work, job sharing, and wage restraint agreements were used to keep workers in their jobs. While these countries are less likely to experience spikes in unemployment during crises, the highly regulated nature of their labor markets mean that they are slower to add jobs during periods of economic prosperity.

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Statista (2025). U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1239080/us-monthly-projected-recession-probability/
Organization logo

U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026

Explore at:
Dataset updated
Jun 24, 2025
Dataset authored and provided by
Statistahttp://statista.com/
Time period covered
Apr 2021 - Apr 2026
Area covered
United States
Description

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

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