By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States FRB Recession Risk data was reported at 0.178 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.192 % for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk data is updated monthly, averaging 0.193 % from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 % in Oct 2008 and a record low of 0.022 % in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data was reported at -0.105 Basis Point in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of -0.060 Basis Point for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data is updated monthly, averaging -0.056 Basis Point from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.539 Basis Point in Oct 2008 and a record low of -1.026 Basis Point in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data was reported at 1.268 Basis Point in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.114 Basis Point for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.572 Basis Point from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.924 Basis Point in Nov 2008 and a record low of 0.563 Basis Point in Oct 1978. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

FRB Recession Risk在2025-04达0.178%，相较于2025-03的0.192%有所下降。FRB Recession Risk数据按月度更新，1973-01至2025-04期间平均值为0.193%，共628份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2008-10，达1.000%，而历史最低值则出现于2003-07，为0.022%。CEIC提供的FRB Recession Risk数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Board，数据归类于Global Database的美国 – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk。

Goldman Sachs raises gold price forecast to $3,700 by 2025 due to strong central bank demand and ETF inflows amid potential recession risks.

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

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US Residential Construction Market Size 2025-2029

The US residential construction market size is forecast to increase by USD 242.9 million at a CAGR of 4.5% between 2024 and 2029.

The Residential Construction Market in the US is experiencing significant growth driven by increasing household formation rates and a rising focus on sustainability in new projects. According to the latest data, household formation is projected to continue growing at a steady pace, fueling the demand for new residential units. This trend is particularly evident in urban areas, where population growth and limited space for new development are driving up demand. Meanwhile, the emphasis on sustainability in residential construction is transforming the market landscape. With consumers increasingly prioritizing energy efficiency and eco-friendly features in their homes, builders and developers are responding by incorporating green technologies and sustainable materials into their projects.
This shift not only appeals to environmentally-conscious consumers but also offers long-term cost savings and regulatory compliance benefits. However, the market is not without challenges. Skilled labor shortages continue to pose a significant hurdle for large-scale residential real estate projects. The ongoing shortage of skilled laborers, including carpenters, electricians, and plumbers, is driving up labor costs and delaying project timelines. To mitigate this challenge, some builders are exploring alternative solutions, such as modular construction and automation, to streamline their operations and reduce their reliance on traditional labor sources. The Residential Construction Market in the US presents significant opportunities for companies seeking to capitalize on the growing demand for new housing units and the shift towards sustainability.
However, navigating the challenges of labor shortages and rising costs will require innovative solutions and strategic planning. By staying informed of market trends and adapting to evolving consumer preferences, companies can effectively position themselves for success in this dynamic market.

What will be the size of the US Residential Construction Market during the forecast period?

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The residential construction market in the United States continues to exhibit dynamic activity, driven by various economic factors. Housing supply remains a key focus, with ongoing discussions surrounding the affordable housing trend and efforts to increase inventory, particularly for single-family homes and new constructions. Mortgage and federal funds rates have an impact on residential investment, with fluctuations influencing buyer decisions and construction costs. The labor market plays a crucial role, as workforce availability and wages affect both housing starts and cancellation rates. Inflation and interest rates, monitored closely by the Federal Reserve, also shape the market's direction. Recession risks and economic conditions influence construction spending across various sectors, including multifamily and single-family homes.
Federal programs, such as housing choice vouchers and fair housing initiatives, continue to support home buyers and promote equitable housing opportunities. Building permits and housing starts serve as essential indicators of market health and future growth, with some sectors experiencing double-digit growth. Overall, the residential construction market in the US remains a significant economic driver, shaped by a complex interplay of economic, demographic, and policy factors.

How is this market segmented?

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD million' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Product

  Apartments and condominiums
  Luxury Homes
  Other types


Type

  New construction
  Renovation


Application

  Single family
  Multi-family


Construction Material

  Wood-framed
  Concrete
  Steel
  Modular/Prefabricated


Geography

  US

By Product Insights

The apartments and condominiums segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The residential construction market in the US is experiencing growth in both the apartment and condominium sectors, driven by the increasing trend toward urbanization and changing lifestyle preferences. Apartments, typically owned by property management companies, and condominiums, with individually owned units within a larger complex, contribute significantly to the market. The Federal Reserve's influence on the economy through the federal funds rate and mortgage rates impacts borrowing rates and home construction activity. The affordability of housing, particularly for younger generations, is a concern due to factors such as inflation, labor market conditions, and savings

FRB Recession Risk：Excess Bond Premium在04-01-2025达-0.105基点，相较于03-01-2025的-0.060基点有所下降。FRB Recession Risk：Excess Bond Premium数据按月更新，01-01-1973至04-01-2025期间平均值为-0.056基点，共628份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于10-01-2008，达3.539基点，而历史最低值则出现于07-01-2003，为-1.026基点。CEIC提供的FRB Recession Risk：Excess Bond Premium数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Board，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk。

FRB Recession Risk：Corporate Bond Credit Spread在04-01-2025达1.268基点，相较于03-01-2025的1.114基点有所增长。FRB Recession Risk：Corporate Bond Credit Spread数据按月更新，01-01-1973至04-01-2025期间平均值为1.572基点，共628份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于11-01-2008，达7.924基点，而历史最低值则出现于10-01-1978，为0.563基点。CEIC提供的FRB Recession Risk：Corporate Bond Credit Spread数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Board，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk。

In a survey conducted in ten Southeast Asian countries in 2025, a huge share of respondents across all countries saw unemployment and economic recession as the biggest challenge faced by the region in 2025. Around **** percent of residents in the Vietnam perceived climate change challenges to be a bigger threat in 2025.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global Title Insurance market size is USD 57181.2 million in 2024 and will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.00% from 2024 to 2031.

North America held the major market of more than 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 22872.48 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2% from 2024 to 2031.
Europe accounted for a share of over 30% of the global market size of USD 17154.36 million.
Asia Pacific held the market of around 23% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 13151.68 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.0%from 2024 to 2031.
Latin America market of more than 5% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 2859.06 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4% from 2024 to 2031.
Middle East and Africa held the major market of around 2% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 1143.62 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.7% from 2024 to 2031.
The dominant end user category is the enterprise segment, which includes businesses and organizations that require title insurance for commercial properties and real estate transactions.

Market Dynamics of Title Insurance Market

Key Drivers for Title Insurance Market

Increasing Property Transactions to Increase the Demand Globally

One key driver propelling the Title Insurance market is the steady rise in property transactions. As the real estate industry continues to expand globally, fueled by urbanization, population growth, and economic development, the demand for title insurance has surged. Property buyers and lenders increasingly recognize the importance of safeguarding their investments against potential title defects, encumbrances, or legal disputes that may arise in the future. This heightened awareness has led to a greater adoption of title insurance policies, driving market growth. Additionally, regulatory mandates in many jurisdictions require title insurance as a prerequisite for property transactions, further boosting market demand. As property markets remain dynamic and resilient, the increasing volume of real estate transactions is expected to sustain the growth momentum of the Title Insurance market.

Evolving Regulatory Landscape to Propel Market Growth

Another crucial driver shaping the Title Insurance market is the evolving regulatory landscape governing real estate transactions. Regulatory changes, including updates to property laws, mortgage regulations, and consumer protection measures, have a significant impact on the demand for title insurance. Stricter regulations often necessitate comprehensive due diligence procedures and risk mitigation strategies, prompting property buyers and lenders to seek robust title insurance coverage. Moreover, regulatory reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and reducing fraud in property transactions have contributed to the growing adoption of title insurance as a risk management tool. Market players in the title insurance industry are continually adapting their products and services to align with evolving regulatory requirements, thereby driving market growth. As regulatory frameworks continue to evolve, the demand for title insurance is expected to remain strong, especially in regions undergoing significant legislative changes in the real estate sector.

Restraint Factor for the Title Insurance Market

Economic Downturns and Property Market Volatility to Limit the Sales

One key restraints affecting the Title Insurance market is its vulnerability to economic downturns and property market volatility. During periods of economic uncertainty or recession, property transactions tend to decline, leading to a reduction in demand for title insurance. Economic downturns also increase the risk of mortgage defaults and foreclosures, which can result in higher claims payouts for title insurers. Additionally, property market volatility, influenced by factors such as fluctuating interest rates, regulatory changes, and geopolitical events, can impact the stability of the Title Insurance market. Uncertain property valuations and shifting market dynamics can make it challenging for title insurers to accurately assess risks and set premiums, leading to potential revenue losses. As such, the Title Insurance market is sensitive to mac...

Recent economic fluctuations have bolstered revenue volatility for fashion designers. COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 sharply reduced in-person retail demand, causing revenue to plummet. As restrictions eased and incomes rose with mass vaccination, spending on fashion designers rebounded, fueling substantial revenue growth in 2021 and 2022 and contributing to the modest climb in providers’ profit from 2020 to 2025. However, sky-high inflation in 2022 led the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates, dampening consumer confidence and discretionary spending, resulting in slower revenue growth in 2023 and 2024. With future interest rates uncertain, partly because of new tariffs, designers face continued market unpredictability and are likely to invest more in marketing to build customer loyalty. Meanwhile, sustainability has become crucial, with designers responding to rising consumer expectations for eco-friendly, ethical practices and gaining loyalty and revenue from these strategies. Digital tools and AI now drive efficiency and personalization, bolstering designers’ popularity. Overall, revenue for fashion designers in the US has soared at a CAGR of 8.6% over the past five years, reaching $4.4 billion in 2025. This includes a 2.1% gain in revenue in that year. Moving forward, fashion designers are expected to see positive but slower revenue growth. While rising disposable incomes and steady consumer spending will support demand, providers won’t enjoy pandemic-era surges, limiting companies’ expansion. The aging population will also constrain revenue, as fewer people will need professional attire because of a lower percentage of the population in the workforce. Recent tariff increases by the US on all countries’ imports, starting in April 2025, have stirred economic uncertainty, escalated manufacturing and retail costs and reduced disposable income. This has heightened the risk of recession and would likely dampen demand for designers’ services in 2025 and 2026. Regardless, collaborations with luxury designers and growing inclusivity, such as adaptive and size-inclusive lines, will expand designers’ market reach, with designers who prioritize accessibility benefiting most from evolving consumer expectations. Overall, revenue for fashion designers in the US is forecast to expand at a CAGR of 2.3% over the next five years, reaching $4.9 billion in 2025.

Expert networks have recently faced increased revenue volatility due to shifts in economic conditions. The pandemic initially stifled business activity and slowed revenue growth, but a post-pandemic rebound saw surging corporate profit and stock prices, driving a revenue jump in 2021. However, rising inflation in 2022 caused clients to reduce spending, stalling growth. In response, expert networks have been investing in niche services and technical research to retain loyal clientele and stabilize incomes. Despite recent volatility, rising consumer spending, stock market activity and expansions in downstream markets have bolstered demand for expert insights long-term, keeping revenue growth strong in 2023 and 2024 even as high interest rates and recessionary fears disrupted the broader US economy. An influx of new entrants, spurred by market opportunity, has heightened competition and reduced market concentration. Also, clients’ rising expectations concerning compliance and quality have increased operational costs, prompting a focus on expense management for maintaining profitability. Overall, revenue for expert networks has surged at a CAGR of 7.0% over the past five years, reaching $1.8 billion in 2025. This includes a 4.3% increase in revenue in that year. From 2025 to 2030, expert networks are expected to benefit from ongoing, though slower, economic growth. While revenue growth will decelerate compared to previous years, partly due to subdued tech stock performance, business sentiment and confidence should remain quite stable, supporting steady demand for expert network services. However, new tariffs and protectionist policies, such as broad-based import taxes introduced in 2025, will create volatility, raise costs and could trigger a recession. This risk would compress spending on expert networks, leading to industry consolidation and greater focus on niche specialization. Simultaneously, AI-powered automation will streamline expert-client matching and compliance, boosting efficiency and competition, particularly among large providers, while driving smaller networks to specialize or invest in targeted marketing. Due to the increased efficiency, AI is set to reduce wage costs, potentially boosting profit over the long term. Overall, revenue for expert networks is forecast to creep upward at a CAGR of 1.0% over the next five years, reaching $1.9 billion in 2030.

Electronic article surveillance (EAS) manufacturers have experienced negative long-term headwinds. Over the past several years, consumers have increasingly favored online retailers, driven by greater productivity, technological advances and the rise of e-commerce giants like Amazon. This has weakened demand for EAS products, as online retailers don’t face shoplifting concerns. Resultingly, this has induced declines in revenue and profit over the past five years. More recently, economic shifts have bolstered revenue volatility among providers. The pandemic triggered sharp revenue drops due to constrained consumer spending, while the subsequent recovery briefly stabilized demand as retailers increased their investment in EAS products. However, rising interest rates curbed spending, further depressing revenue in 2023 and 2024. Meanwhile, falling crime rates have slowed demand for EAS systems. While revenue growth overall has slowed, exports of EAS products have remained solid, especially to developing countries. Imports have also risen, especially from Malaysia, as China's market share fell amid trade tensions, pushing up competition for US manufacturers. Overall, revenue for EAS manufacturers has plunged at a CAGR of 3.0% over the past five years, reaching $650.7 million in 2025. This includes a 1.5% decline in that year. From 2025 to 2030, demand for EAS products will grow slowly instead of weakening as online shopping saturates and e-commerce expansion decelerates. This will constrain the popularity of online retailers, giving providers a lifeline. Long-term economic growth is set to boost consumer spending, providing a useful revenue stream for the industry. Despite this, the US faces significant economic uncertainty, especially after new tariffs have been imposed by the Trump administration, raising the risk of recession and potentially suppressing economic growth and, therefore, revenue growth for the EAS manufacturers. Technological innovations—such as RFID and AI—will benefit larger providers but could replace traditional EAS products, threatening demand. Consumer focus on sustainability will drive investment in eco-friendly, recyclable EAS solutions, benefiting providers that prioritize green practices in a challenging market. Overall, revenue for EAS product makers is forecast to inch upward at a CAGR of 0.1% over the next five years, reaching $654.6 million in 2030.