Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USRECD) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-07-10 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The Covid-19 pandemic saw growth fall by 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent the year before. The last time the real GDP growth rates fell by a similar level was during the Great Recession in 2009, and the only other time since the Second World War where real GDP fell by more than one percent was in the early 1980s recession. The given records began following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, and GDP growth fluctuated greatly between the Great Depression and the 1950s, before growth became more consistent.

The global personal finance tools and market is projected to expand from USD XX million in 2025 to USD XX million in 2033, at a CAGR of 5.60%. Key growth drivers include the increasing adoption of digital financial tools, rising financial literacy, and growing awareness of personal financial management. The proliferation of smartphones and the internet has made personal finance tools more accessible and convenient, contributing to market growth. In terms of segmentation, the market is classified by type as web-based software and mobile-based software. By end user, it is divided into individual consumers and businesses. Prominent companies in the market include Blackrock (FutureAdvisor), Intuit Inc, Qube Money, Quicken Inc, Revolut, PayU Money, Finicity Corporation (Mvelopes), Personal Capital, Paypal, YNAB, and Betterment. North America is projected to dominate the market throughout the forecast period, followed by Europe and Asia Pacific. The increasing adoption of personal finance tools by millennials and Gen Z consumers, coupled with the presence of well-established financial institutions and fintech companies, is expected to drive growth in these regions. Recent developments include: January 2020-Quicken Inc., a major personal finance software market, announced the release of 'Simplifi,' a next-generation unique finance management tool designed to provide consumers with a consolidated view of all accounts synchronized with the expense tracker. The new ad-free app is the most comprehensive and powerful solution. Yet, it is also a simple and intuitive smart tool for managing monetary inflows and outflows with great efficiency., June 2020-Personal Capital Corporation, one of the key players in the personal finance software market, launched a new product feature, 'Recession Simulator,' that provides insights into the impact of past market recessions in the wake of market volatility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recession Simulator is the first-ever free tool available to all Personal Capital users and wealth management clients in the Americas.. Key drivers for this market are: Growing Adoption of the Digitalization in Developing Region, Rise of Personal Financial Apps. Potential restraints include: Lack of Knowledge to Operate the Tool. Notable trends are: The Increasing Adoption of Smartphone has Significant Growth Potential on the Market.

The global personal finance tools market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing smartphone penetration, rising financial literacy concerns, and the expanding adoption of digital banking and fintech solutions. The market's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.60% from 2019 to 2024 indicates a steady upward trajectory, projected to continue into the forecast period (2025-2033). The market is segmented by software type (web-based and mobile-based) and end-user (individual consumers and businesses – though the provided data focuses on individual consumers). The mobile-based segment is anticipated to dominate due to its convenience and accessibility. Major players like Intuit, Quicken, and Personal Capital are leading the market, offering a wide range of features from budgeting and investment tracking to financial planning and debt management. The increasing demand for personalized financial advice and automated investing solutions is further fueling market expansion. While data on specific regional market shares is absent, it is reasonable to expect North America and Europe to hold significant shares initially, followed by growth in the Asia-Pacific region driven by increasing digitalization and rising middle-class populations. Competitive pressures, the need for continuous innovation to maintain market share, and data security concerns represent key challenges for market players. The future of the personal finance tools market is bright, with significant opportunities for growth in emerging markets and through the integration of advanced technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). These technologies can enhance personalized financial advice, automate complex tasks, and improve the overall user experience. The market is likely to witness consolidation as larger players acquire smaller firms, further strengthening their market positions. However, success will depend on the ability of companies to offer user-friendly interfaces, robust security features, and innovative functionalities that cater to the evolving needs of financially conscious consumers. Regulatory changes and compliance requirements also represent a significant factor influencing market dynamics. A focus on financial inclusion and providing accessible tools for underserved populations will also be crucial for future growth. Recent developments include: January 2020-Quicken Inc., a major personal finance software market, announced the release of 'Simplifi,' a next-generation unique finance management tool designed to provide consumers with a consolidated view of all accounts synchronized with the expense tracker. The new ad-free app is the most comprehensive and powerful solution. Yet, it is also a simple and intuitive smart tool for managing monetary inflows and outflows with great efficiency., June 2020-Personal Capital Corporation, one of the key players in the personal finance software market, launched a new product feature, 'Recession Simulator,' that provides insights into the impact of past market recessions in the wake of market volatility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recession Simulator is the first-ever free tool available to all Personal Capital users and wealth management clients in the Americas.. Key drivers for this market are: Growing Adoption of the Digitalization in Developing Region, Rise of Personal Financial Apps. Potential restraints include: Growing Adoption of the Digitalization in Developing Region, Rise of Personal Financial Apps. Notable trends are: The Increasing Adoption of Smartphone has Significant Growth Potential on the Market.

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the BRICS countries have been considered the five foremost developing economies in the world. Originally, the term BRIC was used by economists when talking about the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, however these countries have held annual summits since 2009, and the group has expanded to include South Africa since 2010. China has the largest GDP of the BRICS country, at 16.86 trillion U.S. dollars in 2021, while the others are all below three trillion. Combined, the BRICS bloc has a GDP over 25.85 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022, which is slightly more than the United States. BRICS economic development China has consistently been the largest economy of this bloc, and its rapid growth has seen it become the second largest economy in the world, behind the U.S.. China's growth has also been much faster than the other BRICS countries; for example, when compared with the second largest BRICS economy, its GDP was less than double the size of Brazil's in 2000, but is almost six times larger than India's in 2021. Since 2000, the country with the second largest GDP has fluctuated between Brazil, Russia, and India, due to a variety of factors, although India has held this position since 2015 (when the other two experienced recession), and it's growth rate is on track to surpass China's in the coming decade. South Africa has consistently had the smallest economy of the BRICS bloc, and it has just the third largest economy in Africa; its inclusion in this group is due to the fact that it is the most advanced and stable major economy in Africa, and it holds strategic importance due to the financial potential of the continent in the coming decades. Future developments It is predicted that China's GDP will overtake that of the U.S. by the end of the 2020s, to become the largest economy in the world, while some also estimate that India will also overtake the U.S. around the middle of the century. Additionally, the BRICS group is more than just an economic or trading bloc, and its New Development Bank was established in 2014 to invest in sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy across the globe. While relations between its members were often strained or of less significance in the 20th century, their current initiatives have given them a much greater international influence. The traditional great powers represented in the Group of Seven (G7) have seen their international power wane in recent decades, while BRICS countries have seen theirs grow, especially on a regional level. Today, the original BRIC countries combine with the Group of Seven (G7), to make up 11 of the world's 12 largest economies, but it is predicted that they will move further up on this list in the coming decades.

This poll, fielded August 27-31, 2009, is part of a continuing series of monthly surveys that solicit public opinion on the presidency and on a range of other political and social issues. Respondents were asked whether they approved of the way Barack Obama was handling the presidency, foreign policy, the situation in Afghanistan, health care, and the economy. Respondents were asked if they thought things in the country were on the right track, their rating of the national economy, and whether they thought the economy would get better. Respondents were also asked questions about the economic recession, including how long they thought it would last, the advisability of the federal government spending money to stimulate the national economy, whether it was acceptable to raise the deficit to create jobs and stimulate growth, and whether the federal budget deficit affected the respondent's family's financial situation. Several questions addressed health care, including whether respondents thought our health care system worked well, whether Medicare worked well, and whether the government would do a better job than private health care companies in keeping health care costs down and providing medical coverage. Respondents were also asked their opinions on the health insurance industry, whether they believed in the possibility of expanding health care coverage without increasing budget deficits or taxes on the middle class, whether Barack Obama or the Republicans in Congress had better ideas about reforming the health care system, and whether they understood the health care reforms Congress was considering. Information was collected on how respondents thought health care reforms under consideration in Congress would affect the middle class, senior citizens, small businesses, the respondent personally, their health care costs, and the quality of health care. Additional topics that were covered included the pullout of troops from Iraq, major credit cards, credit card debt, how the federal government should use taxpayer's money, how to handle the deficit, personal finances, the best way to discourage obesity, and job security. Demographic variables include sex, age, race, marital status, education level, household income, political party affiliation, political philosophy, perceived social class, religious preference, and voter registration status and participation history.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused regressive income declines, but also led to progressive policy responses. Using administrative U.S. tax data, which are a near-universal panel dataset that can track income changes over time, we consider the distribution of annual income declines during the COVID-19 pandemic relative to the Great Recession. We then show how the unprecedented policy response to the pandemic, through enhanced unemployment insurance benefits and stimulus checks, affected the distribution of these declines

Business Confidence in the United States increased to 49 points in June from 48.50 points in May of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Inflation is generally defined as the continued increase in the average prices of goods and services in a given region. Following the extremely high global inflation experienced in the 1980s and 1990s, global inflation has been relatively stable since the turn of the millennium, usually hovering between three and five percent per year. There was a sharp increase in 2008 due to the global financial crisis now known as the Great Recession, but inflation was fairly stable throughout the 2010s, before the current inflation crisis began in 2021. Recent years Despite the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the global inflation rate fell to 3.26 percent in the pandemic's first year, before rising to 4.66 percent in 2021. This increase came as the impact of supply chain delays began to take more of an effect on consumer prices, before the Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated this further. A series of compounding issues such as rising energy and food prices, fiscal instability in the wake of the pandemic, and consumer insecurity have created a new global recession, and global inflation in 2024 is estimated to have reached 5.76 percent. This is the highest annual increase in inflation since 1996. Venezuela Venezuela is the country with the highest individual inflation rate in the world, forecast at around 200 percent in 2022. While this is figure is over 100 times larger than the global average in most years, it actually marks a decrease in Venezuela's inflation rate, which had peaked at over 65,000 percent in 2018. Between 2016 and 2021, Venezuela experienced hyperinflation due to the government's excessive spending and printing of money in an attempt to curve its already-high inflation rate, and the wave of migrants that left the country resulted in one of the largest refugee crises in recent years. In addition to its economic problems, political instability and foreign sanctions pose further long-term problems for Venezuela. While hyperinflation may be coming to an end, it remains to be seen how much of an impact this will have on the economy, how living standards will change, and how many refugees may return in the coming years.

We evaluate explanations for the absence of disinflation during the Great Recession and find popular explanations to be insufficient. We propose a new explanation for this puzzle within the context of a standard Phillips curve. If firms' inflation expectations track those of households, then the missing disinflation can be explained by the rise in their inflation expectations between 2009 and 2011. We present new econometric and survey evidence consistent with firms having similar expectations as households. The rise in household inflation expectations from 2009 to 2011 can be explained by the increase in oil prices over this time period. (JEL D84, E24, E32, E52, E58, Q35)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Canada expanded 0.50 percent in the first quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides - Canada GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Decoupling of body size, physiological state, and subsequent performance in a developmentally manipulated songbird.

GENERAL INFORMATION 1. Title of dataset: Decoupling of growth, physiological state, and subsequent performance in a developmentally manipulated songbird. 2. Author information Corresponding Investigator Name: Joshua Allen Institution: Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada. Email: jmallen@sfu.ca Co-investigator 1 Name: Brett Hodinka Institution: Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada. Co-investigator 2 Name: Hannah Hall Institution: Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada. Co-investigator 3 Name: Kathryn Leonard Institution: Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada. Co-investigator 4 Name: Raven Barbera Institution: Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada. Co-investigator 5 Name: Genavieve Desjardin Institution: Simon Frase...

The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in May 2025 after shrinking by 0.3 percent in April. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 4.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

According to Cognitive Market Research, The Global Food Delivery market size is USD 156.8 billion in 2023 and will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% from 2023 to 2030.

The food delivery market thrives on consumers' busy lifestyles and a rising demand for convenient, diverse meal options, reflecting an increasing fusion of culinary exploration and time-saving preferences.
Restaurant Prepared Food Deliver emerges as the dominant category in the type segment.
Online payment stands out as the dominant category in the payment segment.
Asia Pacific Food Delivery will continue to lead, whereas the North American Food Delivery market will experience the most substantial growth until 2030.

Revolutionizing Food Delivery through Advanced Mobile Apps, GPS Tracking, and AI Integration to Boost Market Growth

The constant evolution of technology acts as a potent driver for the food delivery market. Advanced mobile apps, GPS tracking, and real-time order monitoring enhance the overall user experience, fostering convenience and accessibility. The seamless integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data analytics optimizes route planning and order accuracy, streamlining operations for both consumers and delivery personnel. These technological advancements not only elevate the efficiency of food delivery services but also cater to the growing demand for instant, transparent, and personalized experiences, shaping the market's trajectory towards innovation and customer-centricity.

Shifting Consumer Lifestyles to Drive the Food Delivery Market

The changing lifestyles of consumers, marked by hectic schedules and an increasing preference for convenience, emerge as a pivotal driver propelling the food delivery market. The fast-paced nature of modern life prompts individuals to seek quick, hassle-free meal solutions, turning to food delivery services for their time-saving attributes. Moreover, the evolving culinary preferences and a heightened awareness of diverse global cuisines contribute to the growing demand for a wide array of food options accessible at the fingertips. As consumers embrace the fusion of convenience and culinary exploration, the food delivery market experiences an upsurge in demand, shaping the industry's response to changing preferences.

Market Dynamics of Food Delivery

Economic Downturn Hampers Growth of Food Delivery Market Amid Consumer Spending Constraints

The food delivery market grapples with the restraint of an economic downturn as the global financial landscape faces uncertainties. Reduced consumer spending, a direct consequence of economic challenges, hampers the growth trajectory of the market. The pandemic-induced economic downturn has compelled consumers to reassess discretionary spending, impacting their willingness to indulge in food delivery services. This restraint necessitates strategic adaptations by market players to align with changing consumer budgets and preferences, fostering resilience amidst the economic headwinds.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Food Delivery Market

The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly impacted the food delivery market, witnessing both a surge in demand and operational challenges. With lockdowns confining consumers to their homes, there was a notable uptick in food delivery orders. Restaurants, adapting to the situation, increasingly relied on delivery and takeout services. However, closures of dine-in options, economic uncertainties, and safety concerns posed hurdles. Smaller establishments faced survival challenges, and supply chain disruptions influenced market dynamics. The pandemic thus created a complex landscape for the food delivery industry, with shifts in consumer behavior and operational adaptations reshaping the market. Introduction of The Food Delivery Market

Key players in the food delivery market employ various strategies to maintain and enhance their market presence. These strategies include product innovation, such as long-lasting formulations and diverse color ranges, aggressive marketing campaigns leveraging social media and influencer partnerships, expanding e-commerce channels, and emphasizing sustainability with eco-friendly packaging. Additionally, they invest in research to understand consumer preferences and trends, ensuring their products align with evolving beauty and fashion standards. Implementing these strategies enables major players to secure ...