Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

In this paper, we document trends in credit use across income groups in the period surrounding the Great Recession. We investigate trends in access to different credit markets, including mortgages, home equity, automobiles, and student loans. We disentangle growth rates of new market entrants from the aggregates and analyze overall as well as within-county growth rate differentials across income strata. Our findings may provide insight into the financial well-being of different income groups in the context of the Great Recession.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global AI Sensor Market with Recession Market size is USD 2.8 billion in 2024 and will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38.6% from 2024 to 2031. Market Dynamics of AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Key Drivers for AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Advancements in AI and Machine Learning: Rapid advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning are boosting the use of Al sensors. Algorithms are getting increasingly sophisticated and capable of handling complicated data from sensors, enabling real-time decision-making and predictive analytics. These developments allow Al sensors to detect patterns, anomalies, and trends in data streams, making them useful in applications such as picture recognition, natural language processing, and predictive maintenance. For instance, in manufacturing, Al sensors may detect faults in real time, improving quality control and lowering waste. Al sensors also improve the capability of autonomous systems and robots. They can perceive their surroundings, adjust to changing circumstances, and make sound decisions. This is especially crucial in industries like agriculture, where autonomous drones equipped with Al sensors can check crop health, detect pest infestations, and optimize pesticide use. Security and Surveillance applications

Key Restraints for AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Capital Spending Delays in Price-Sensitive Sectors: Businesses in a variety of sectors, including retail, consumer electronics, and the automobile industry, frequently postpone or abandon capital-intensive initiatives and technological advancements during recessions. This has a direct impact on the use of AI sensors in consumer electronics, smart factories, and new goods, momentarily reducing market expansion.

Semiconductor shortages and supply chain disruptions: Complex semiconductor components are necessary for AI sensors, and supply chain bottlenecks are frequently made worse by global economic downturns. Delays in shipping, reduced manufacturing capacity, and geopolitical unrest can all affect sensor production and lengthen lead times, making it more difficult for industries to deploy sensors on time.

Key Trends for AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Transition to Low-Cost Advanced AI Sensors: Industries are turning to edge AI sensors that analyze data locally in order to deal with financial restrictions. This eliminates the need for expensive cloud infrastructure and latency problems. Due to their simplicity of deployment and reduced total cost of ownership, small, energy-efficient sensors with on-chip AI are becoming more and more popular. Growing Utilization in Energy Efficiency and Predictive Maintenance: Operational efficiency is a top priority for financially stressed organizations, and AI sensors are essential for energy optimization and predictive maintenance. Industrial equipment with sensors built in can anticipate malfunctions, prolong the life of machinery, and use less electricity, all of which can result in quantifiable cost savings during recessions. Introduction of the AI Sensor Market with Recession Market

Al sensors are also improving the capabilities of autonomous systems and robots. They can perceive their surroundings, adjust to changing conditions, and make sound decisions. This is especially crucial in industries like agriculture, where autonomous drones equipped with Al sensors can check crop health, detect pest infestations, and optimize pesticide use. Also, increased demand for life-saving healthcare equipment and self-driving capabilities in new electric vehicles are expected to fuel growth. The global shift towards digitization is expected to boost growth even further.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.995 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.031 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.564 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 543 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 87.972 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The global gum recession line market is estimated to be valued at USD XXX million in 2025 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period from 2025 to 2033. The market is driven by the increasing prevalence of periodontal diseases, such as gingivitis and periodontitis, which are major causes of gum recession. Additionally, rising awareness about oral hygiene and the growing adoption of minimally invasive dental procedures are fueling market growth. The availability of advanced techniques, such as laser therapy and guided tissue regeneration, is also contributing to the market expansion. The gum recession line market is segmented based on application, type, and region. By application, the market is divided into hospitals, dental clinics, and others. By type, the market is categorized into braided cords, knitted cords, twisted cords, and others. Geographically, the market is segmented into North America, South America, Europe, the Middle East & Africa, and Asia Pacific. North America is expected to dominate the global market throughout the forecast period due to the high prevalence of periodontal diseases and the adoption of advanced dental care technologies. Europe is also a major market for gum recession lines, followed by Asia Pacific. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the Gum Recession Line market, focusing on concentration, trends, key regions, product insights, and drivers. The market is valued at $XX billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $XX billion by the end of 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of XX% during the forecast period.

These files contain the publicly available data and statistical code to reproduce the tables and figures found in: Harper S, Charters TJ, Strumpf EC, Galea S, Nandi A. Economic downturns and suicide mortality in the United States, 1980-2010: observational study. Int J Epidemiol 2015

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, countries across the world were thrown into recession. In comparison to North America, Europe, and Japan, however, many parts of the globe experienced less severe effects of the crisis, with some avoiding going into recession at all. Particularly in Africa and South & East Asia, many countries experienced a dip in their annual GDP growth, but still recorded high growth rates of over 2.5 percent. South Asia in particular actually experienced an increase in growth during the recession, bucking global trends. Latin America and the Caribbean was the only one of these regions to enter recession in 2009, due to the outsized importance of the United States as a partner in trade and finance for the region.

Probability of Recession: Euro Area data was reported at 1.506 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.828 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: Euro Area data is updated monthly, averaging 5.278 % from Jan 1996 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 351 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 70.141 % in Mar 2009 and a record low of 0.016 % in Jul 2021. Probability of Recession: Euro Area data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table EU.S002: Probability of Recession: Euro Area.

The Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008), which began due to the collapse of the U.S. housing market, had a negative effect in many regions across the globe. The global recession which followed the crisis in 2008 and 2009 showed how interdependent and synchronized many of the world's economies had become, with the largest advanced economies showing very similar patterns of negative GDP growth during the crisis. Among the largest emerging economies (commonly referred to as the 'E7'), however, a different pattern emerged, with some countries avoiding a recession altogether. Some commentators have particularly pointed to 2008-2009 as the moment in which China emerged on the world stage as an economic superpower and a key driver of global economic growth. The Great Recession in the developing world While some countries, such as Russia, Mexico, and Turkey, experienced severe recessions due to their connections to the United States and Europe, others such as China, India, and Indonesia managed to record significant economic growth during the period. This can be partly explained by the decoupling from western financial systems which these countries undertook following the Asian financial crises of 1997, making many Asian nations more wary of opening their countries to 'hot money' from other countries. Other likely explanations of this trend are that these countries have large domestic economies which are not entirely reliant on the advanced economies, that their export sectors produce goods which are inelastic (meaning they are still bought during recessions), and that the Chinese economic stimulus worth almost 600 billion U.S. dollars in 2008/2009 increased growth in the region.

The Gingival Recession Treatment Market is projected to reach $674.52 million by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.99% during the forecast period of 2025-2033. The growth is attributed to factors such as the rising prevalence of periodontal disease, increasing awareness about gingival recession, and technological advancements in treatment methods. Additionally, the growing adoption of minimally invasive procedures, such as laser therapy and guided tissue regeneration, is fueling market expansion. The market is segmented based on treatment type, material used, end user, and procedure complexity. Surgical treatment holds the largest market share due to the effectiveness and durability of the procedures. Non-surgical treatments, however, are gaining popularity as they are less invasive and offer faster recovery times. Collagen-based materials dominate the market due to their biocompatible and regenerative properties. Dental clinics account for the majority of the market share, while home care is expected to witness significant growth in the coming years due to the increasing availability of over-the-counter treatments. Key players in the market include Coltene, MediDent Supplies, and 3M. Recent developments include: In the Gingival Recession Treatment Market, recent developments showcase a growing emphasis on innovative solutions to address the gingival recession. Companies like Coltene and MediDent Supplies are investing in advanced technologies, aiming to enhance treatment efficacy and patient outcomes. The demand for bioactive materials and minimally invasive procedures is driving growth, with key players like 3M and GC Corporation expanding their product lines to include sophisticated regenerative materials. Current affairs indicate a surge in market valuation as awareness about oral health and aesthetics rises among consumers, promoting the market's expansion. Notable companies such as Patterson Companies and Ultradent Products are actively participating in this growth by launching new products designed for gingival recession treatment. Furthermore, merger and acquisition activities have been noted, with companies like Danaher and Dentsply Sirona exploring strategic partnerships to strengthen their market position and broaden their offerings. This collaborative approach is indicative of a competitive landscape where innovation and market relevance are crucial for success. The market’s dynamics reflect an increasingly interconnected environment where companies leverage advancements in technology and consumer healthcare trends to navigate evolving patient needs effectively.. Key drivers for this market are: Growing geriatric population, Increasing awareness of oral health; Advancements in regenerative medicine; Rising demand for minimally invasive procedures; Expanding dental tourism industry. Potential restraints include: Increasing prevalence of periodontal diseases, Growing awareness of oral health; Advances in treatment technologies; Rising aesthetic dentistry demand; Expanding geriatric population.

This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm. The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred. The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month. The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD. Our time series is composed of dummy variables that represent periods of expansion and recession. A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period. For this time series, the recession begins on the 15th day of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th day of the month of the trough. This time series is a disaggregation of the monthly series. For more options on recession shading, see the note and links below.

The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough. We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods. All of our recession shading data is available using all three interpretations. The period between a peak and trough is always shaded as a recession. The peak and trough are collectively extrema. Depending on the application, the extrema, both individually and collectively, may be included in the recession period in whole or in part. In situations where a portion of a period is included in the recession, the whole period is deemed to be included in the recession period.

The first interpretation, known as the midpoint method, is to show a recession from the midpoint of the peak through the midpoint of the trough for monthly and quarterly data. For daily data, the recession begins on the 15th of the month of the peak and ends on the 15th of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. For monthly and quarterly data, the entire peak and trough periods are included in the recession shading. This method shows the maximum number of periods as a recession for monthly and quarterly data. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis uses this method in its own publications. The midpoint method is used for this series.

The second interpretation, known as the trough method, is to show a recession from the period following the peak through the trough (i.e. the peak is not included in the recession shading, but the trough is). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. A version of this time series represented using the trough method can be found at:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CANRECD

The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e. the peak is included in the recession shading, but the trough is not). For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the month of the peak and ends on the last day of the month preceding the trough. Daily data is a disaggregation of monthly data. A version of this time series represented using the peak method can be found at:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CANRECDP

The OECD CLI system is based on the "growth cycle" approach, where business cycles and turning points are measured and identified in the deviation-from-trend series. The main reference series used in the OECD CLI system for the majority of countries is industrial production (IIP) covering all industry sectors excluding construction. This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle.

Zones aggregates of the CLIs and the reference series are calculated as weighted averages of the corresponding zone member series (i.e. CLIs and IIPs).

Up to December 2008 the turning points chronologies shown for regional/zone area aggregates or individual countries are determined by the rules established by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the United States, which have been formalized and incorporated in a computer routine (Bry and Boschan) and included in the Phase-Average Trend (PAT) de-trending procedure. Starting from December 2008 the turning point detection algorithm is decoupled from the de-trending procedure, and is a simplified version of the original Bry and Boschan routine. (The routine parses local minima and maxima in the cycle series and applies censor rules to guarantee alternating peaks and troughs, as well as phase and cycle length constraints.)

The components of the CLI are time series which exhibit leading relationship with the reference series (IIP) at turning points. Country CLIs are compiled by combining de-trended smoothed and normalized components. The component series for each country are selected based on various criteria such as economic significance; cyclical behavior; data quality; timeliness and availability.

OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD Composite Leading Indicators, "Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series", http://www.oecd.org/std/leading-indicators/oecdcompositeleadingindicatorsreferenceturningpointsandcomponentseries.htm (Accessed on date)

The Gum Recession Line market is witnessing a significant transformation, emerging as a crucial sector within the broader dental health industry. Aligning with the growing awareness of oral hygiene and periodontal health, the Gum Recession Line refers to the visible border at the gingival margin where the gums reced

The global gum recession treatment market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing prevalence of periodontal diseases and a rising demand for minimally invasive procedures. The market size in 2025 is estimated at $850 million, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is fueled by several key factors. Technological advancements in treatment modalities, such as guided tissue regeneration (GTR) and enamel matrix derivative (EMD) therapies, offer improved treatment outcomes and patient satisfaction. Furthermore, the growing awareness of oral hygiene and the rising disposable incomes in emerging economies are contributing to increased demand for advanced dental treatments. The market is segmented by treatment type (surgical and non-surgical), product type (biomaterials, instruments, and others), and end-user (dental clinics, hospitals, and research centers). Leading companies such as Patterson Companies, Ultradent Products, and Premier Dental Products are driving innovation and market competition through product development and strategic partnerships. The market's growth is, however, subject to certain restraints. The high cost of advanced treatments can limit accessibility, particularly in developing countries. Moreover, the time-consuming nature of certain procedures and potential complications associated with surgical interventions may also pose challenges. Nevertheless, the increasing focus on preventive dentistry and the development of cost-effective treatment options are likely to mitigate these challenges in the long term. The market is expected to witness significant regional variations, with North America and Europe currently holding substantial market shares, while Asia-Pacific is projected to experience faster growth due to its expanding middle class and increasing dental awareness. Over the forecast period, the market will continue its expansion, driven by innovation and growing demand, making it an attractive sector for investment and growth.

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Modular Data Centers Market Size 2024-2028

The global modular data centers market size is forecast to increase by USD 42.56 billion, at a CAGR of 19.8% between 2023 and 2028. The need to streamline traditional data centers is a major factor fueling market growth. Today, companies running single conventional data centers grapple with complex management and soaring capital costs due to sophisticated power and cooling systems. With the current economic recession, businesses are increasingly seeking cost-effective and scalable solutions. Modular data centers, with their standardized, portable designs, provide an ideal alternative that can be quickly deployed. Mobile network operators and colocation providers are among the leading users of these solutions. These modular setups are more environmentally friendly, thanks to their energy-efficient HVAC systems and IT equipment. As big data, AI, cloud computing, 5G, and IoT applications require higher operating temperatures, the flexibility and scalability of modular designs become even more crucial.

What will be the Size of the Market During the Forecast Period?

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Market Segmentation

By End-user

IT and Telecom is the Leading Segment to Dominate the Market

The IT and telecom segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period. In the global market, Modular Data Centers hold a significant share, particularly in the IT and telecom sector. These centers are essential for providing the required computing power and storage for various applications and services in the industry. With the rise of cloud computing, the demand for data centers has escalated, as businesses seek to access resources without substantial capital expenditure. The IT and telecom segment was the largest and was valued at USD 4.02 billion in 2018. The influx of data from businesses and individuals necessitates data centers capable of handling vast amounts of information. Recession or not, Modular Data Centers offer scalability and rapid deployment, making them attractive to mobile network providers and data center colocation providers. Green data centers, with their standard design and cooling systems, are increasingly popular due to their energy efficiency. Big data, AI, cloud computing, 5G infrastructure, Internet of things, and cloud-based solutions are driving the market's growth.

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North America Holds a Prominent Position in the Market

North America is estimated to contribute 30% to the growth of the global market during the forecast period. Technavio's analysts have elaborately explained the regional trends and drivers that shape the market during the forecast period. The Edge computing trend is driving the growth of the market in the US and Canada, particularly in the BFSI industry. Large enterprises are shifting towards energy-efficient data centers to minimize costs and CAPEX, opting for cloud solutions from hyperscale providers like AWS, Microsoft, and Oracle. As of 2021, the US hosts over 2,670 data centers, making it the global leader. Quicksilver Capital and the World Economic Forum highlight the importance of digital transformation in this context. These offer Scalable data centers for large enterprises, enabling them to meet their computing capacity requirements efficiently.

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Market Dynamics and Customer Landscape

They have emerged as a popular solution for businesses seeking scalability and rapid deployment during times of economic uncertainty, such as a recession. These data centers utilize a modular design, allowing for easy expansion and contraction based on demand. Green data centers, which prioritize energy efficiency, are a key focus in the modular data center market. Mobile network providers and large enterprises are major consumers, as they require cloud-based networking and 5G infrastructure to support digital transformation initiatives. The solutions sub-segment and services segment of the modular data center market are expected to grow significantly, as businesses increasingly turn to cloud-based solutions for their data storage and processing needs. The World Economic Forum has the importance of energy-efficient data centers in reducing carbon emissions and mitigating the environmental impact of digitalization. Quicksilver Capital and other investors have shown interest in the modular data center market, recognizing its potential for innovation and growth. Overall, the modular data center market is poised for expansion, driven by the need for scalable, energy-efficient, and quickly deployable solutions.

Key Market Driver

Requirement to reduce complexity of traditional data centers is notably driving market growth. In today's business landscape, enterprises operating a single traditional data center face

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.