This data package includes the underlying data and files to replicate the calculations, charts, and tables presented in Average Inflation Targeting Would Be a Weak Tool for the Fed to Deal with Recession and Chronic Low Inflation, PIIE Policy Brief 19-16. If you use the data, please cite as: Reifschneider, David, and David Wilcox. (2019). Average Inflation Targeting Would Be a Weak Tool for the Fed to Deal with Recession and Chronic Low Inflation. PIIE Policy Brief 19-16. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Survey investigates indepth attitudes toward the economy, affects of inflation, and financial management.

Questions include standard of living, income, financial stress, savings and borrowing habits, money budgeted for housing, transportation, food and leisure. Questions about taxation, causes of inflation, recession, tax revolt, cost of living and financial investments are also included. A tack-on surveys attitudes toward environmental air and water pollution, political affairs, civil rights, and Joe Namath.

Abstract

The Consumer price surveys primarily provide the following: Data on CPI in Palestine covering the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem J1 for major and sub groups of expenditure. Statistics needed for decision-makers, planners and those who are interested in the national economy. Contribution to the preparation of quarterly and annual national accounts data.

Consumer Prices and indices are used for a wide range of purposes, the most important of which are as follows: Adjustment of wages, government subsidies and social security benefits to compensate in part or in full for the changes in living costs. To provide an index to measure the price inflation of the entire household sector, which is used to eliminate the inflation impact of the components of the final consumption expenditure of households in national accounts and to dispose of the impact of price changes from income and national groups. Price index numbers are widely used to measure inflation rates and economic recession. Price indices are used by the public as a guide for the family with regard to its budget and its constituent items. Price indices are used to monitor changes in the prices of the goods traded in the market and the consequent position of price trends, market conditions and living costs. However, the price index does not reflect other factors affecting the cost of living, e.g. the quality and quantity of purchased goods. Therefore, it is only one of many indicators used to assess living costs. It is used as a direct method to identify the purchasing power of money, where the purchasing power of money is inversely proportional to the price index.

Geographic coverage

Palestine West Bank Gaza Strip Jerusalem

Analysis unit

The target population for the CPI survey is the shops and retail markets such as grocery stores, supermarkets, clothing shops, restaurants, public service institutions, private schools and doctors.

Universe

The target population for the CPI survey is the shops and retail markets such as grocery stores, supermarkets, clothing shops, restaurants, public service institutions, private schools and doctors.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Sampling procedure

A non-probability purposive sample of sources from which the prices of different goods and services are collected was updated based on the establishment census 2017, in a manner that achieves full coverage of all goods and services that fall within the Palestinian consumer system. These sources were selected based on the availability of the goods within them. It is worth mentioning that the sample of sources was selected from the main cities inside Palestine: Jenin, Tulkarm, Nablus, Qalqiliya, Ramallah, Al-Bireh, Jericho, Jerusalem, Bethlehem, Hebron, Gaza, Jabalia, Dier Al-Balah, Nusseirat, Khan Yunis and Rafah. The selection of these sources was considered to be representative of the variation that can occur in the prices collected from the various sources. The number of goods and services included in the CPI is approximately 730 commodities, whose prices were collected from 3,200 sources. (COICOP) classification is used for consumer data as recommended by the United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA-2008).

Sampling deviation

Not apply

Mode of data collection

Computer Assisted Personal Interview [capi]

Research instrument

A tablet-supported electronic form was designed for price surveys to be used by the field teams in collecting data from different governorates, with the exception of Jerusalem J1. The electronic form is supported with GIS, and GPS mapping technique that allow the field workers to locate the outlets exactly on the map and the administrative staff to manage the field remotely. The electronic questionnaire is divided into a number of screens, namely: First screen: shows the metadata for the data source, governorate name, governorate code, source code, source name, full source address, and phone number. Second screen: shows the source interview result, which is either completed, temporarily paused or permanently closed. It also shows the change activity as incomplete or rejected with the explanation for the reason of rejection. Third screen: shows the item code, item name, item unit, item price, product availability, and reason for unavailability. Fourth screen: checks the price data of the related source and verifies their validity through the auditing rules, which was designed specifically for the price programs. Fifth screen: saves and sends data through (VPN-Connection) and (WI-FI technology).

In case of the Jerusalem J1 Governorate, a paper form has been designed to collect the price data so that the form in the top part contains the metadata of the data source and in the lower section contains the price data for the source collected. After that, the data are entered into the price program database.

Cleaning operations

The price survey forms were already encoded by the project management depending on the specific international statistical classification of each survey. After the researcher collected the price data and sent them electronically, the data was reviewed and audited by the project management. Achievement reports were reviewed on a daily and weekly basis. Also, the detailed price reports at data source levels were checked and reviewed on a daily basis by the project management. If there were any notes, the researcher was consulted in order to verify the data and call the owner in order to correct or confirm the information.

At the end of the data collection process in all governorates, the data will be edited using the following process: Logical revision of prices by comparing the prices of goods and services with others from different sources and other governorates. Whenever a mistake is detected, it should be returned to the field for correction. Mathematical revision of the average prices for items in governorates and the general average in all governorates. Field revision of prices through selecting a sample of the prices collected from the items.

Response rate

Not apply

Sampling error estimates

The findings of the survey may be affected by sampling errors due to the use of samples in conducting the survey rather than total enumeration of the units of the target population, which increases the chances of variances between the actual values we expect to obtain from the data if we had conducted the survey using total enumeration. The computation of differences between the most important key goods showed that the variation of these goods differs due to the specialty of each survey. For example, for the CPI, the variation between its goods was very low, except in some cases such as banana, tomato, and cucumber goods that had a high coefficient of variation during 2019 due to the high oscillation in their prices. The variance of the key goods in the computed and disseminated CPI survey that was carried out on the Palestine level was for reasons related to sample design and variance calculation of different indicators since there was a difficulty in the dissemination of results by governorates due to lack of weights. Non-sampling errors are probable at all stages of data collection or data entry. Non-sampling errors include: Non-response errors: the selected sources demonstrated a significant cooperation with interviewers; so, there wasn't any case of non-response reported during 2019. Response errors (respondent), interviewing errors (interviewer), and data entry errors: to avoid these types of errors and reduce their effect to a minimum, project managers adopted a number of procedures, including the following: More than one visit was made to every source to explain the objectives of the survey and emphasize the confidentiality of the data. The visits to data sources contributed to empowering relations, cooperation, and the verification of data accuracy. Interviewer errors: a number of procedures were taken to ensure data accuracy throughout the process of field data compilation: Interviewers were selected based on educational qualification, competence, and assessment. Interviewers were trained theoretically and practically on the questionnaire. Meetings were held to remind interviewers of instructions. In addition, explanatory notes were supplied with the surveys. A number of procedures were taken to verify data quality and consistency and ensure data accuracy for the data collected by a questioner throughout processing and data entry (knowing that data collected through paper questionnaires did not exceed 5%): Data entry staff was selected from among specialists in computer programming and were fully trained on the entry programs. Data verification was carried out for 10% of the entered questionnaires to ensure that data entry staff had entered data correctly and in accordance with the provisions of the questionnaire. The result of the verification was consistent with the original data to a degree of 100%. The files of the entered data were received, examined, and reviewed by project managers before findings were extracted. Project managers carried out many checks on data logic and coherence, such as comparing the data of the current month with that of the previous month, and comparing the data of sources and between governorates. Data collected by tablet devices were checked for consistency and accuracy by applying rules at item level to be checked.

Data appraisal

Other technical procedures to improve data quality: Seasonal adjustment processes

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This article was published on the Guardian website at 19.00 BST on Tuesday 16 June 2009. It was last modified at 13.43 BST on Tuesday 19 August 2014. Online beschikbaar: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2009/jun/16/deflation-double-dip-recession-inflation/print [01-12-2014] © 2014 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved.

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