Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Feb 2026 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

As of February 2026, the probability of an economic recession in the United States over the next 12 months stood at ***** percent. This reflected an increased likelihood compared to the previous month. By January 2027, it is projected to decrease to a likelihood of ***** percent.

View monthly updates and historical trends for US Recession Probability. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Track economic data…

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec 1854 to Feb 2026 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

In spring 2023, roughly **** of consumers in the United States said they could easily stop buying fine jewelry and/or watches if they entered a recession in the next six months. Ranking second and third, many also said they could easily cut out outdoor gear and fitness equipment purchases.

This statistic shows fine jewelry and watch sales in the United States from 2008 to 2014. In 2014, U.S. retail sales pertaining to fine jewelry and watches amounted to about **** billion U.S. dollars.Jewelry Market in the United StatesThe U.S. jewelry industry seems poised for a glittering future as consumer appetite for jewelry, which was dampened by the global recession, now appears more voracious than ever. The jewlery market is personified by stifling competition. The sector sways between inexpensive jewelry pieces for daily wear, to special items like engagement rings and watches meant for celebrating special events, to investment pieces priced and sold similarly to antique pieces and fine art.

In 2014, U.S. jewelry store sales amounted to over ** billion U.S. dollars. This figure is expected to rise to just over ** billion U.S. dollars by 2019. The industry is as dynamic as it is fast growing and jewelry players can't simply do business as usual and expect to thrive; they must be alert and responsive to important trends and developments or else risk being left behind by more agile competitors.

Considering several elements utilized in the jewelry market, gold has always dominated the industry on account of its vivid physical and chemical properties like luster and ease of fabrication. The United States is ranked third when it comes to consumer gold demand, consuming about *** metric tons of gold in 2015.

"Money makes the world go round," goes the refrain of a song from the 1972 musical movie, Cabaret. Just as this was true for Sally Bowles, the character played by Liza Minnelli, it is also the driving influence of the jewelry market. Personal income and the growing number of working women since 2009 has led to impressive growth, thus expanding the boundaries of its existing realm.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

In the United States, consumer spending on media was estimated to amount to about *** billion U.S. dollars in 2022. According to the forecast scenarios, that annual value would surpass *** billion or stand just below *** billion dollars by 2027. What do the scenarios mean? In scenario A, the recession would only have a short-term impact on consumer media spending. At the height of the recession in 2023, consumers are expected to spend less on entertainment to offset rising energy and consumer product prices. The economy should begin to recover by 2024 and should be fully mended by 2027, with spending on media back to pre-pandemic levels.

Scenario B predicts a long-term impact of the recession on media consumption behavior. Ad-supported options will replace subscription-based offers, whereas on-and-off subscribing will increase, driven by special offers and consumers unsubscribing after those offers expire. Behavior changes will stick even after 2027 when the economy has fully recovered. Media usage today Media usage in the United States has already changed within just one year. Recent data from the beginning of 2023 shows that consumers opt for free entertainment choices. More people indicate watching free-on-demand TV, more of them also listen to the radio. Podcasts also gained in popularity, compared to the first quarter of 2022. Also fewer people say they don’t watch live TV, which is a potential sign of the growing popularity of free-ad-supported-TV (FAST) services as well.

Although the unemployment rate is at a historically low level, many policymakers are nevertheless watching projections for the future unemployment rate closely to evaluate the risk of extreme outcomes. We assess the probabilities of extreme outcomes in the near and medium term and find that the risk of unexpectedly high unemployment three years in the future has declined from its Great Recession peak and remained low over the past three years.

Business Confidence in the United States decreased to 52.40 points in February from 52.60 points in January of 2026. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States ISM Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

This statistic shows the national debt of Greece from 2020 to 2023, with projections until 2030. In 2023, the national debt in Greece was around 420.4 billion U.S. dollars. In a ranking of debt to GDP per country, Greece is currently ranked third. Greece's struggle after the financial crisis Greece is a developed country in the EU and is highly dependent on its service sector as well as its tourism sector in order to gain profits. After going through a large economic boom from the 1950s to the 1970s as well as somewhat high GDP growth in the early to mid 2000s, Greece’s economy took a turn for the worse and struggled intensively, primarily due to the Great Recession, the Euro crisis as well as its own debt crisis. National debt within the country saw significant gains over the past decades, however roughly came to a halt due to financial rescue packages issued from the European Union in order to help Greece maintain and improve their economical situation. The nation’s continuous rise in debt has overwhelmed its estimated GDP over the years, which can be attributed to poor government execution and unnecessary spending. Large sums of financial aid were taken from major European banks to help balance out these government-induced failures and to potentially help refuel the economy to encourage more spending, which in turn would decrease the country’s continuously rising unemployment rate. Investors, consumers and workers alike are struggling to see a bright future in Greece, whose chances of an economic comeback are much lower than that of other struggling countries such as Portugal and Italy. However, Greece's financial situation might improve in the future, as it is estimated that at least its national debt will decrease - slowly, but steadily. Still, since its future participation in the European Union is in limbo as of now, these figures can only be estimates, not predictions.

According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, ** percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to ** percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from *** percent in January 2021 to *** percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates **** percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of **** to *** percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.