The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USRECDM) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-06-25 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States NBER: Recorded Recession data was reported at 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for Sep 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data is updated monthly, averaging 0.000 Unit from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in Oct 2018. United States NBER: Recorded Recession data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability. An interpretation of US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions data provided by The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). A value of 1 is a recessionary period, while a value of 0 is an expansionary period.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

Milton Friedman’s plucking model of business cycles hypothesizes that deeper recessions forecast larger booms while stronger booms do not necessarily forecast deeper recessions. This paper tests the plucking model using Maddison Project growth data for 169 countries across several centuries. We find 56.9% of the per capita GDP growth magnitude in the last year of a downturn forecasts the per capita GDP growth magnitude of the subsequent first recovery year while only 16.2% of the last boom year per capita GDP growth magnitude forecasts the per capita GDP growth magnitude of the first year in the subsequent downturn, suggesting that the plucking model holds up relatively well. Combining our finding that first post-recession boom year per capita GDP growth rate is typically is 0.7% higher than later boom years suggests that recoveries generally exhibit “reverse square root” shapes.

United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in July of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1969 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1968. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

This graph shows, how long it will take the respondents to recover from the recessions' impacts. 10 percent of the respondents said that it will take them more than 10 years to overcome the impacts of the recession or they will even never be able to reach the same level they had before the recession.

United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data was reported at 3.150 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.000 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 5.750 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 15.320 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 1.500 % in Jul 2016. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 10 Year Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

We estimate a DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model where rare large shocks can occur, by replacing the commonly used Gaussian assumption with a Student's t-distribution. Results from the Smets and Wouters (American Economic Review 2007; 97: 586-606) model estimated on the usual set of macroeconomic time series over the 1964-2011 period indicate that (i) the Student's t specification is strongly favored by the data even when we allow for low-frequency variation in the volatility of the shocks, and (ii)) the estimated degrees of freedom are quite low for several shocks that drive US business cycles, implying an important role for rare large shocks. This result holds even if we exclude the Great Recession period from the sample. We also show that inference about low-frequency changes in volatility-and, in particular, inference about the magnitude of Great Moderation-is different once we allow for fat tails.

United States Recession Probability data was reported at 14.120 % in Oct 2019. This records a decrease from the previous number of 14.505 % for Sep 2019. United States Recession Probability data is updated monthly, averaging 7.668 % from Jan 1960 (Median) to Oct 2019, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 95.405 % in Dec 1981 and a record low of 0.080 % in Sep 1983. United States Recession Probability data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

MLE and GoFT for GuGRP parameters of American recessions.

This paper presents a new nonlinear time series model that captures a post-recession bounce-back in the level of aggregate output. While a number of studies have examined this type of business cycle asymmetry using recession-based dummy variables and threshold models, we relate the bounce-back effect to an endogenously estimated unobservable Markov-switching state variable. When the model is applied to US real GDP, we find that the Markov-switching regimes are closely related to NBER-dated recessions and expansions. Also, the Markov-switching form of nonlinearity is statistically significant and the bounce-back effect is large, implying that the permanent effects of recessions are small. Meanwhile, having accounted for the bounce-back effect, we find little or no remaining serial correlation in the data, suggesting that our model is sufficient to capture the defining features of US business cycle dynamics. When the model is applied to other countries, we find larger permanent effects of recessions.

Review of Economics and Statistics: Forthcoming.. Visit https://dataone.org/datasets/sha256%3Ab8d1fc0f40e485b45938803a352aadd4d321e8cbc9f4eb5a901c79247be83ac9 for complete metadata about this dataset.

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recession; we also discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector toy model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and May 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative **** percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at ***** percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of ** daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

This paper analyses the effect of the economic crisis in the years 2008 and 2009 on individual training activities of different employee groups within establishments. We use a unique German linked employer–employee panel dataset with detailed information on individual training history (WeLL-ADIAB). The so-called Great Recession can be seen as an exogenous, unexpected, and time-limited shock. Although our results cannot be interpreted in a strictly causal manner, our Diff-in-Diff analyses suggest a direct negative effect of the crisis on individual training activities in 2009 and 2010. The negative effect therefore sets in with a time lag and lasts until after the recession. Furthermore, the recession has a stronger effect for employees in unskilled jobs than for employees in skilled jobs.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for India from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (INDREC) from May 1996 to Sep 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and India.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.