The price of refined petroleum per barrel is influenced by various factors, including the price of crude oil, supply and demand dynamics, global geopolitical events, and macroeconomic indicators. Understanding these factors is essential for policymakers, energy companies, and consumers to foresee and adapt to changes in petroleum prices.

As of August 2025, the average annual price of Brent crude oil stood at 71.3 U.S. dollars per barrel. This is over nine U.S. dollars lower than the 2024 average. Brent is the world's leading price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. Crude oil is one of the most closely observed commodity prices as it influences costs across all stages of the production process and consequently alters the price of consumer goods as well. What determines crude oil benchmarks? In the past decade, crude oil prices have been especially volatile. Their inherent inelasticity regarding short-term changes in demand and supply means that oil prices are erratic by nature. However, since the 2009 financial crisis, many commercial developments have greatly contributed to price volatility, such as economic growth by BRIC countries like China and India, and the advent of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling in the U.S. The outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are examples of geopolitical events dictating prices. Light crude oils - Brent and WTI Brent Crude is considered a classification of sweet light crude oil and acts as a benchmark price for oil around the world. It is considered a sweet light crude oil due to its low sulfur content and low density and may be easily refined into gasoline. This oil originates in the North Sea and comprises several different oil blends, including Brent Blend and Ekofisk crude. Often, this crude oil is refined in Northwest Europe. Another sweet light oil often referenced alongside UK Brent is West Texas Intermediate (WTI). WTI oil prices amounted to 76.55 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2024.

On October 27, 2025, the Brent crude oil price stood at 65.14 U.S. dollars per barrel, compared to 61.31 U.S. dollars for WTI oil and 67.54 U.S. dollars for the OPEC basket. Oil prices rose slightly that week.Europe's Brent crude oil, the U.S. WTI crude oil, and OPEC's basket are three of the most important benchmarks used by traders as reference for global oil and gasoline prices. Lowest ever oil prices during coronavirus pandemic In 2020, the coronavirus pandemic resulted in crude oil prices hitting a major slump as oil demand drastically declined following lockdowns and travel restrictions. Initial outlooks and uncertainty surrounding the course of the pandemic brought about a disagreement between two of the largest oil producers, Russia and Saudi Arabia, in early March. Bilateral talks between global oil producers ended in agreement on April 13th, with promises to cut petroleum output and hopes rising that these might help stabilize the oil price in the coming weeks. However, with storage facilities and oil tankers quickly filling up, fears grew over where to store excess oil, leading to benchmark prices seeing record negative prices between April 20 and April 22, 2020. How crude oil prices are determined As with most commodities, crude oil prices are impacted by supply and demand, as well as inventories and market sentiment. However, as oil is most often traded in future contracts (where a contract is agreed upon while product delivery will follow in the next two to three months), market speculation is one of the principal determinants for oil prices. Traders make conclusions on how production output and consumer demand will likely develop over the coming months, leaving room for uncertainty. Spot prices differ from futures in so far as they reflect the current market price of a commodity.

Refinery oil prices are influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, crude oil prices, refinery complexity, location, transportation costs, and operational factors. These prices directly affect the cost of petroleum products and can be influenced by geopolitical and economic events.

In August 2025, the average price of one barrel of Brent crude oil was 67.87 U.S. dollars. This was a decrease from the previous month and 12 U.S. dollars below July 2024 prices. Brent terminology and most common uses Brent is the world's leading price benchmark for Atlantic basin crude oils. It is used to price two thirds of the internationally traded crude oil supplies and is also the most significant crude oil benchmark for Europe. Brent crude originates in the North Sea and includes oils from Brent and Forties Oil Field in the United Kingdom, and from the Oseborg and Ekofisk oil fields, both oil reserves in Norway. Other names for Brent are Brent Blend, London Brent and Brent petroleum. The name Brent comes from the Brent oil field, located north-east of the Shetland Islands, and thus part of the United Kingdom. Because the Brent oil field already passed its production peak, today the benchmark Brent includes oil from the other three major oil fields. Brent, next to West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is one of the lightest crude oils. With a low content of sulfur, it is ranged among the so-called sweet crude oils. Most of the Brent crude oil is refined into gasoline and middle distillates in Northwest Europe. Benchmark oil prices Other crucial benchmarks for crude oil prices are the already mentioned U.S.- WTI and Dubai Crude (Fateh). They are indispensable for referencing the many types and grades of oil on the global market. In the past 20 years, the annual price for one barrel of Brent crude oil saw a net increase. For example, the average price per barrel stood at 80.53 U.S. dollars in 2024.

The cost of refining crude oil per barrel can vary depending on various factors such as the type of crude oil, the complexity of the refinery, location, and market conditions. This article explores the main factors that affect the cost of refining and provides insights into the average range of $3 to $5 per barrel. However, it emphasizes that actual costs can differ significantly due to specific circumstances.

Dive into the dynamic refined petroleum market forecast to 2033. Explore key drivers, trends, and restraints shaping this multi-trillion-dollar industry, including regional breakdowns and leading companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron. Understand future growth potential and evolving market segments (gasoline, kerosene, etc.).

In August 2025, the price for one barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil averaged 64.86 U.S. dollars. This was a slight increase compared to the previous month, although prices remained lower than they had been the previous year. WTI and other benchmark crudes WTI is also known as "Texas light sweet", and is a grade of crude oil used as a benchmark for oil produced in the United States. It has an API gravity of around 39.6 and specific gravity of about 0.827, which, relative to other crude oils, is considered “light,” hence the name. WTI also contains about 0.24 percent sulfur, making it a “sweet” crude oil. The price of WTI can be compared to the prices other of crude oils, i.e. UK Brent, the OPEC basket, and Dubai Fateh oil. WTI crude oil is the underlying commodity of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s oil futures contracts. U.S. oil production and its influence on light oil prices The price development of WTI crude oil relative to Brent crude oil has been influenced by variances in U.S. crude oil transportation and increased U.S. oil production. New transportation infrastructure became operational in early 2013, easing the movement of crude oil in the mid-continent and raising the price of WTI. Since then, U.S. refineries have increased production of crude oil to record levels, also raising the price of WTI. Meanwhile, expedited crude transport in the U.S. put downward pressure on Brent crude oil as domestic crude replaced some imported Brent crude. Between 2014 and 2016, UK Brent prices dropped rapidly, as was the case for all other crude oils.

Discover the latest market trends in the refined petroleum industry. This comprehensive analysis covers market size, growth drivers, regional breakdowns (North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, etc.), key players (ExxonMobil, Chevron, etc.), and future forecasts to 2033, including the impact of renewable energy and evolving regulations. Learn how the gasoline, kerosene, and lubricating oil segments are faring.

Petroleum refiners sell a variety of derivative products with wide usages across many different industries. Despite this strong level of diversification, refineries suffered greatly from global dips in demand for transport following the COVID-19 outbreak. Stay-at-home orders and closures of non-essential business in many European countries led to a sharp drop in demand for petrol, diesel and jet fuel as many car, ship and plane journeys came to a halt, causing industry revenue and profit to slump. Over the five years through 2025, European petroleum refineries’ revenue is anticipated to hike at a compound annual rate of 1.4% to €691.4 billion, including a projected swell of 5.8% in 2025. This is mostly the result of surging prices in 2022 and 2023 lifting industry revenue despite no significant increase in refining capacity or output. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to many European countries announcing they would wean themselves off Russian oil, causing a substantial and sustained rise in oil prices. These strong oil prices paved the way for a significant rebound in revenue for petroleum refiners. Despite this, oil price inflation has raised the operating costs for many downstream businesses, leading to many cutting consumption and switching to renewable sources of energy, as shown by the rising uptake of electric vehicles in countries like Norway, the Netherlands and the UK. The profitability of petroleum refineries is somewhat insulated by vertical integration with crude oil extractors, which adds stability to purchase costs. Passing on additional cost increases to their customers is another key way to maintain a healthy margin. Over the five years through 2030, petroleum refineries’ revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 2% to reach €1,099.7 billion, supported by an uptick in European construction and manufacturing after being constrained for multiple years due to strong economic headwinds. Long-term revenue prospects are set to deteriorate as the push for decarbonisation in many economies will see petroleum-derived products being phased out in favour of low-carbon options.

Petroleum refining companies in the UK produce a wide variety of products. Fuels for transport and heating are the most common, with petroleum products for transport consistently accounting for almost three-quarters of product demand, according to DESNZ. Industry revenue is expected to swell at a compound annual rate of 8.8% over the five years through 2025-26 to £44.8 billion, including a forecast dip of 2.2% in 2025-26, owing to staggering volatility in crude petroleum and fuel prices in recent years.

The COVID-19 pandemic took its toll on the industry. Global border and travel restrictions dented both demand for fuel and fuel prices, weighing on revenue and profitability for refiners. However, this trend was quickly reversed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This led to the UK and other major economies announcing that they would wean themselves off Russian oil, resulting in a sharp spike in oil prices from 2022 to 2023 and, to a lesser degree, from 2023 to 2024. Strong oil price inflation translated into higher-value sales for refined oil companies, paving the way for a robust recovery. However, with global oil supplies normalising in 2025-26 and demand for diesel and petrol struggling to return to pre-2019 levels, industry revenue is expected to slip in 2025-26. This is largely due to the growing adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles, which is reducing demand from road transport. However, strong growth in the air freight and air passenger industries is supporting demand for jet fuel in 2025-26.

Industry revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 0.7% over the five years through 2030-31 to £46.3 billion. Demand for petrol and diesel-fueled vehicles is expected to decline due to government initiatives aimed at reducing emissions, including the expansion of Clean Air Zones and the ban on new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. Demand for pure electric vehicles is likely to continue rising, posing a significant long-term threat to fuel demand.

According to Cognitive Market Research, the global refining market size was USD 1751454.2 million in 2024. It will expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.0% from 2024 to 2031.

North America held the major market share for more than 40% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 700581.68 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% from 2024 to 2031.
Europe accounted for a market share of over 30% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 525436.26 million.
Asia Pacific held a market share of around 23% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 402834.47 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.0% from 2024 to 2031.
Latin America had a market share of more than 5% of the global revenue with a market size of USD 87572.71 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2024 to 2031.
Middle East and Africa had a market share of around 2% of the global revenue and was estimated at a market size of USD 35029.08 million in 2024 and will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% from 2024 to 2031.
The petroleum oil refinery category is the fastest growing segment of the refining industry

Market Dynamics of Refining Market

Key Drivers for Refining Market

Increasing Global Energy Consumption to Boost Market Growth

The refining market is undergoing significant changes driven by increasing global energy consumption, which is projected to rise due to population growth and industrialization. This surge in demand necessitates more efficient refining processes to convert crude oil into usable products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. Refiners are focusing on adopting advanced technologies and optimizing operations to meet stricter environmental regulations while enhancing output. Furthermore, the shift towards sustainable energy sources influences refiners to diversify their operations, integrating biofuels and renewable energy to align with global decarbonization efforts.

Rising Focus on R&D for New Refining Technologies to Drive Market Growth

The refining market is increasingly driven by a rising focus on research and development (R&D) for innovative refining technologies. As global demand for cleaner and more efficient energy sources grows, companies are investing in advanced refining methods to enhance productivity and reduce environmental impact. R&D initiatives are aimed at developing technologies such as hydrocracking, catalytic reforming, and biorefining, which improve product yields and lower greenhouse gas emissions. This strategic shift not only fosters sustainability but also positions refiners to meet regulatory standards and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Restraint Factor for the Refining Market

Fluctuations in Crude Oil Prices will Limit Market Growth

The refining market is significantly influenced by fluctuations in crude oil prices, as these prices determine the cost of raw materials for refineries. When crude oil prices rise, refineries may experience increased operational costs, impacting their profit margins. Conversely, lower crude prices can enhance profitability but may reduce the incentive for exploration and production. Additionally, market dynamics such as geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and changes in demand for refined products can exacerbate price volatility, leading to unpredictable outcomes for refinery operations and profitability.

Volatility in Crude Oil Prices and Market Uncertainty hamper the market

A major constraint to the refining industry is crude oil price volatility, which has a direct bearing on profitability. Refining is a cost-heavy process, and crude price volatility can result in huge margin squeezes. When crude prices increase sharply, refiners tend to experience increased operational costs, and when prices fall, it can be an indicator of declining total demand for refined products, particularly during economic slowdown. Apart from price volatility, the refining industry is also influenced by geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, and supply chain disruptions that can further increase market instability. For example, geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing countries or shipping disruptions can lead to supply shortages or price spikes that hamper refiners' efficiency to operate. To cope with such challenges, refiners need to concent...

The global oil refining market, valued at approximately $XX million in 2025, is projected to exhibit a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.30% from 2025 to 2033. This relatively modest growth reflects a complex interplay of factors. While increasing global energy demand, particularly in developing economies like India and China, acts as a key driver, several significant restraints are simultaneously at play. The ongoing global transition towards renewable energy sources and stricter environmental regulations are placing considerable pressure on the industry. Furthermore, fluctuating crude oil prices and geopolitical instability significantly impact profitability and investment decisions within the oil refining sector. Segmental analysis reveals regional variations in growth, with North America and Asia-Pacific expected to be key contributors due to their substantial energy consumption and refining capacities. However, Europe's refining sector faces unique challenges, grappling with the twin pressures of decarbonization mandates and competition from more cost-effective refineries in other regions. Technological advancements in refining processes, aimed at improving efficiency and reducing emissions, represent a crucial trend, influencing both capital expenditure and operational strategies. The competitive landscape is dominated by major integrated oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Shell, Sinopec, and BP, alongside several national oil companies. These players are engaged in strategic mergers and acquisitions, capacity expansions, and technological upgrades to maintain their market share and adapt to the evolving regulatory and market dynamics. The forecast period of 2025-2033 will likely see increased consolidation within the industry as companies strive for economies of scale and enhanced operational efficiency in a more challenging and volatile environment. The success of individual players will hinge on their ability to navigate the regulatory landscape, manage volatile input costs, and invest strategically in sustainable refining technologies and practices. This will likely involve a shift towards diversification into biofuels and other alternative energy products to mitigate the risks associated with traditional petroleum-based refining. Recent developments include: May 2023: Rosneft, the Russian energy giant, announced its plans to collaborate with Indian state-owned refiners to establish a new refinery in India. This decision follows the adjustment of the proposed USD 44-billion refinery project on India's western coast by the country's state-run refiners., March 2023: Advanced talks were underway between the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and Senegal's sole oil refiner, Société Africainede Raffinage(SAR), to raise USD 500 million in syndicated funding for further renovating the aging refinery.. Key drivers for this market are: 4., Increasing Global Demand For Refined Petroleum Products4.; Economic Growth And Industrialization. Potential restraints include: 4., Increasing Global Demand For Refined Petroleum Products4.; Economic Growth And Industrialization. Notable trends are: Increasing Global Demand For Refined Petroleum Products To Drive The Market.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Industry: Refined Petroleum Product Pipeline Transportation: Pipeline Transportation of Refined Petroleum Products (PCU4869104869101) from Jun 1986 to Sep 2025 about pipeline, refined, petroleum, transportation, PPI, industry, inflation, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

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Oil Refining Market Size 2025-2029

The oil refining market size is forecast to increase by USD 111.2 billion at a CAGR of 1.3% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is driven by the surging demand for refined fuel, with increasing global mobility and industrialization fueling this trend. The adoption of modular mini refineries is another key driver, as these facilities offer cost-effective and efficient solutions to meet local fuel demands in regions with limited infrastructure. However, the market faces significant challenges, including the costly and time-consuming nature of oil refinery maintenance operations. The oil refining market is essential for producing various transportation fuels, including fuel oils, gasoil, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
These complex processes require substantial resources and planning, making it essential for companies to optimize their maintenance strategies to minimize downtime and maximize productivity. Effective implementation of predictive maintenance technologies and strategic partnerships can help refineries navigate these challenges and capitalize on the market's growth opportunities. Process control instrumentation and energy conservation measures are essential components in maintaining profitability and sustainability in the oil refining industry. The demand is driven by sectors such as transportation and power generation, with developing countries in Asia, including India and China, being key contributors.

What will be the Size of the Oil Refining Market during the forecast period?

Explore in-depth regional segment analysis with market size data - historical 2019-2023 and forecasts 2025-2029 - in the full report.
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In the market, process optimization techniques and stream analysis play a pivotal role in enhancing efficiency and reducing costs. Heavy oil upgrading, a significant segment, employs advanced methods like reactor temperature control and catalyst selection to maximize output. Petroleum coke production, a byproduct of refining, is subject to stringent safety management systems and environmental impact assessments. Distillation tower design and heat exchanger efficiency are crucial in optimizing energy consumption. The market is a critical component of oil and gas downstream, focusing on the processing and refining of crude oil into valuable products. Hydrogen production methods, integral to various refining processes, are undergoing innovation to minimize costs and improve yields. Fractionator control systems ensure consistent product quality, while pipeline integrity management and pressure control systems maintain safety and reliability.

Environmental considerations are driving the adoption of waste minimization strategies and desalting process control. Thermal cracking methods, a key refining technology, continue to evolve, with process simulation software aiding in optimizing operations. Reactor temperature control, reactor catalyst selection, and paraffin wax production are areas of ongoing research for improved performance and reduced emissions. Asphalt production methods and bitumen processing are also undergoing technological advancements to meet evolving market demands. Additionally, the growing aviation industry significantly contributes to market expansion, as it requires a substantial supply of jet fuel to support increasing air travel and cargo transportation.

How is this Oil Refining Industry segmented?

The oil refining industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Product

  Light distillates
  Middle distillates
  Fuel oil
  Others


Fuel Type

  Gasoline
  Kerosene
  LPG
  Others


End-user

  Transportation
  Petrochemicals
  Residential and commercial heating
  Power generation
  Others


Capacity

  Large-scale refineries
  Medium-scale refineries
  Small-scale refineries


Geography

  North America

    US
    Canada


  Europe

    Germany
    Italy
    Russia
    UK


  APAC

    China
    India
    Japan


  Rest of World (ROW)

By Product Insights

The Light distillates segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period. The market is driven by the demand for light distillates, particularly gasoline, from the transportation sector. Light distillates, which include petrol or gasoline, accounted for the largest market share in 2024. Light crude oil, the primary feedstock for producing light distillates, contains a higher proportion of hydrocarbons and is easier to refine compared to heavier variants. This results in a greater yield of gasoline and diesel from light crude oil. The transportation industry's reliance on gasoline as a fuel source further increases its demand. Crude oil distillation is a crucial

Explore the dynamic global Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing market, projected to reach ~$2.2 trillion by 2025. Analyze market trends, growth drivers (rising energy demand, petrochemical expansion), restraints (environmental regulations, price volatility), and key players like Phillips 66 and Valero Energy. Discover regional insights and future forecasts (2025-2033) for informed decision-making.

This dataset comes from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and is part of the 2011 Annual Energy Outlook Report (AEO2011). This dataset is Table 12, and contains only the reference case. The dataset uses 2009 dollars per gallon. The data is broken down into crude oil prices, residential; commercial, industrial, transportation, electric power and refined petroleum product prices.

Graph and download economic data for Producer Price Index by Commodity: Processed Foods and Feeds: Corn Oil, Crude and Refined (WPU027B) from Jan 2016 to Jan 2025 about refined, corn, processed, crude, oil, food, commodities, PPI, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

The average price of Indian basket crude oil was estimated to reach ***** U.S. dollars per barrel in the financial year 2024. While Indian basket crude oil prices have fluctuated during the reported period, this figure significantly decreased from the previous year’s average of ***** U.S. dollars. The average price of crude oil went up marginally around the financial year 2012, touching almost *** U.S. dollars per barrel. Recent trends in the Indian oil industry The last several years have seen a slight but steady increase in Indian crude oil refinery capacity. However, the annual domestic crude oil production volume has consistently decreased. Not surprisingly, the volume of crude oil imports had recently been on the rise for several years. The future of the Indian energy sector As the third-largest primary energy consumer globally, India relies on various sources to meet its energy demands. At the same time, a significant increase in primary energy consumption across various sources is projected for the coming decades, with renewables playing a vital role in the Indian energy transition.

Discover the latest market analysis of the global Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing industry. Explore growth projections, key players, regional trends, and challenges impacting this dynamic sector through 2033. Learn about market size, CAGR, and key drivers influencing the future of oil refining.