Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (DLTIIT) from 2000-01-03 to 2025-07-21 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The average market yield on the United States Treasury's 10-year bond was **** percent during the second quarter of 2024. This rate was adjusted to reflect a constant maturity and also indexed to inflation, giving an idea of real returns for longer-term investments. The recent expected return was highest at the end of the end of the last quarter of 2024, and lowest in the second half of 2021, when it was negative.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (WFII30) from 2010-02-26 to 2025-07-18 about TIPS, 30-year, maturity, securities, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The United States Treasury's 10-year bond earned an average return of **** percent in 2023. This rate was adjusted to reflect a constant maturity and also indexed to inflation, giving an idea of real returns for longer-term investments. This expected return averaged around *** percent before the financial crisis but was negative in 2011, 2012, 2020, and 2021.

As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (DFII20) from 2004-07-27 to 2025-07-21 about 20-year, TIPS, maturity, securities, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Ten-Year TIPS Yields versus Real Yields is a part of the Inflation Expectations indicator of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

These rates are commonly referred to as "Real Constant Maturity Treasury" rates, or R-CMTs. Real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) at "constant maturity" are interpolated by the U.S. Treasury from Treasury's daily real yield curve. These real market yields are calculated from composites of secondary market quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The real yield values are read from the real yield curve at fixed maturities, currently 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years. This method provides a real yield for a 10 year maturity, for example, even if no outstanding security has exactly 10 years remaining to maturity. Dataset updated daily every weekday.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.37% on July 23, 2025, marking a 0.02 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.07 points and is 0.08 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed from 2003-01-02 to 2025-07-22 about TIPS, maturity, securities, Treasury, interest rate, interest, real, 5-year, rate, and USA.

The yield on 10 Year TIPS Yield eased to 1.94% on July 22, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.06 points and is 0.03 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 10 Year TIPS Yield.

United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Inflation-Indexed was 1.46% in July of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Inflation-Indexed reached a record high of 4.24 in November of 2008 and a record low of -1.91 in May of 2021. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Inflation-Indexed - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBillsRate over Next-Qtr Core(CPI) Consumer Price IndexInflation: Median data was reported at -0.600 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -0.696 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBillsRate over Next-Qtr Core(CPI) Consumer Price IndexInflation: Median data is updated quarterly, averaging -1.540 % from Mar 2007 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 46 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.650 % in Jun 2007 and a record low of -2.009 % in Sep 2014. United States FRBOP: 3Mo TBillsRate over Next-Qtr Core(CPI) Consumer Price IndexInflation: Median data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

United States TIPS Yield: Constant Maturity: Inflation Indexed: MA: 10 Years data was reported at 1.110 % pa in Nov 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.040 % pa for Oct 2018. United States TIPS Yield: Constant Maturity: Inflation Indexed: MA: 10 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 1.040 % pa from Jan 2003 (Median) to Nov 2018, with 191 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.890 % pa in Nov 2008 and a record low of -0.770 % pa in Nov 2012. United States TIPS Yield: Constant Maturity: Inflation Indexed: MA: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M008: Treasury Securities Yields.