In September 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In September 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 17 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.3 percent in September 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 8 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 5.50 percent. This dataset provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In June 2025, the repo rate set by Reserve Bank of India stood at *** percent. In May 2022, the repo rate was *** percent, after which it spiked continuously until 2025. The repo rate is defined as the rate at which the central bank of a country, in this case the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), lends money to commercial banks in case of lack of funds.

The repo rate in Sweden was negative for a long period, until it was set to zero percent on ***************. The repo rate has remained unchanged, at zero percent, until *************. The repo rate is the policy rate of the Riksbank, Sweden's central bank, and can affect other interest rates, stimulates demand in the economy, and affect inflation.

Inflation Rate in India decreased to 0.25 percent in October from 1.44 percent in September of 2025. This dataset provides - India Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

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🇹🇷 USD/TRY + the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey Economic Indicators Dataset

📌 Overview

This dataset brings together key economic indicators published by The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) via the EVDS API, including:

• The official USD/TRY exchange rate
• Central Bank’s open market operations data (repo rates, funding)
• Inflation expectations and actual CPI index
• FX swap amounts
• TRY interest rates
• Transaction volumes and market sentiment indicators
• Stock market index (BIST100)

All indicators are structured in a time series format, ideal for: - Macroeconomic research - Forecasting exchange rates - Monetary policy analysis - Financial market sentiment modeling

Data was then cleaned, translated into English, and exported as CSV using pandas.

📁 Column Descriptions

📊 Example Use Cases

✅ Time-series forecasting using exchange rate and macro indicators
✅ Relationship modeling: inflation vs. interest rates vs. FX
✅ Macro financial dashboards
✅ Market reaction analysis post-policy announcements
✅ Econometric & deep learning models for policy simulation

Between January 2018 and September 2025, Germany's inflation rate experienced significant volatility. Initially fluctuating between 0.3 and 3.1 percent, the rate escalated dramatically, reaching a peak of 10.4 percent in October 2022. By September 2024, the inflation rate had moderated to 1.6 percent. However, inflation began rising again towards the end of 2024, standing at 2.6 percent in December. In the first half of 2025, inflation remained relatively stable, standing at 2.1 percent in May 2025. The European Central Bank (ECB) responded to these inflationary pressures with a series of interest rate adjustments. After maintaining historically low rates, the ECB initiated its first rate hike since March 2016 in July 2022, raising the rate to 0.5 percent. The interest rate continued to increase, stabilizing at 4.5 percent from September 2023 to June 2024. In a notable shift, June 2024 marked the first rate cut during this period. It was followed by a series of rate cuts until the end of the year, with the last cut in 2024 setting the rate at 3.15 percent. Several further cuts were implemented in the first half of 2025, setting the rate at 2.15 percent in June 2025. As of September 2025, the inflation rate is 2.4 percent, with the ECB interest rate at 2.15 percent.

The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 16.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The statistic shows the inflation rate in India from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The inflation rate is calculated using the price increase of a defined product basket. This product basket contains products and services, on which the average consumer spends money throughout the year. They include expenses for groceries, clothes, rent, power, telecommunications, recreational activities and raw materials (e.g. gas, oil), as well as federal fees and taxes. In 2024, the inflation rate in India was around 4.67 percent compared to the previous year. See figures on India's economic growth for additional information. India's inflation rate and economy Inflation is generally defined as the increase of prices of goods and services over a certain period of time, as opposed to deflation, which describes a decrease of these prices. Inflation is a significant economic indicator for a country. The inflation rate is the rate at which the general rise in the level of prices, goods and services in an economy occurs and how it affects the cost of living of those living in a particular country. It influences the interest rates paid on savings and mortgage rates but also has a bearing on levels of state pensions and benefits received. A 4 percent increase in the rate of inflation in 2011 for example would mean an individual would need to spend 4 percent more on the goods he was purchasing than he would have done in 2010. India’s inflation rate has been on the rise over the last decade. However, it has been decreasing slightly since 2010. India’s economy, however, has been doing quite well, with its GDP increasing steadily for years, and its national debt decreasing. The budget balance in relation to GDP is not looking too good, with the state deficit amounting to more than 9 percent of GDP.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1b40e0ca-7d2e-4fbc-8cfd-df3f09e4fdb8">

To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

In December 2023, the reverse repo rate for Bank Indonesia was *** percent, the highest rate it had been since October 2016. Due to anticipation of inflation, this increase was made to strengthen the framework for monetary operations.

The WC food CPI decreased to 9,5% in July, 0,6 percentage points lower than South Africa’s 10,1%. Load shedding and the weakening exchange rate remains key drivers to upward pressure. The continuous hikes in the repo rate have assisted in the headline CPI decreasing to below 6%, falling within the target range.

The benchmark interest rate in Turkey was last recorded at 39.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Indonesia was last recorded at 4.75 percent. This dataset provides - Indonesia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The data on Swedish Riksbank's density forecasts of CPI inflation, actual inflation and NIER's forecasts of Swedish inflation are used in an illustration of testing forecast efficiency conditions.FParam.tsvSweden's central bank (Riksbank) started to publish its density forecasts of inflation in June 1998. The forecasts are in the form of two-piece normal distribution. The target variable is the yearly CPI inflation. We evaluate only one-year-ahead forecasts. There are 64 forecasts available for evaluation for the period 1999–2015. They were issued 4 times a year with approximately quarterly frequency. Forecasts before 2007 are conditional, assuming a predetermined trajectory of the repo rate. The file contains 4 variables: the 3 parameters of two-piece normal distribution mu, s1, s2 and the date (month).Actual.tsvThe file contains the actual values of the CPI innflation (the so called shadow version).Actual_Last.tsvThe file contains the actual lagged values of the CPI innflation.NIER.tsvThe file contains the point forecasts of inflation by the National Institute of Economic Research.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2025, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.