Graph and download economic data for Inflation Risk Premium (TENEXPCHAINFRISPRE) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about premium, inflation, and USA.

We report average expected inflation rates over the next one through 30 years. Our estimates of expected inflation rates are calculated using a Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland model that combines financial data and survey-based measures. Released monthly.

For 2024, cyber incidents were a leading business risk to companies of all sizes globally according to risk management experts worldwide. Some industries are more prone to cyberattacks than others. For instance, manufacturing was the most targeted industry globally by ransomware incidents in 2023. Meanwhile, the number of cyber incidents in the financial sector increased in recent years. How does cybercrime jeopardize businesses? Cyber incidents pose a multitude of risks to businesses across various aspects. Financially, they can result in direct losses through theft, ransom payments, or disruptions in operations, which affect revenue streams and stability. Between 2001 and 2023, the monetary damage from cybercrime in the United States rose from **** million U.S. dollars to a staggering **** billion dollars. What challenges do businesses face due to inflation? Inflation poses numerous challenges to organizations, affecting consumer spending, interest rates, driving up operational expenses, and creating uncertainty in strategic planning. Rising prices frequently result in increased costs for raw materials and wages, thereby reducing profit margins. Throughout much of the 2010s, inflation was consistently low, especially between 2013 and 2020, when it fluctuated between *** and *** percent. However, the annual global inflation rate peaked in 2022, at **** percent, and is expected to decline in the following years. This heightened inflation was a sign that the global economy was undergoing a period of great uncertainty, which made it more expensive to do business.

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.

Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.

For more information, please visit the "https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

As of June 2022, the ongoing inflation posed the biggest risk to the ASEAN-5 economies. In the Philippines, the risk was particularly high, reaching an index score of 93 out of 100. In Thailand, all three leading economic risks were evaluated with scores of 60 or over, with the Chinese economic slowdown being as much of a concern for Thailand's economy as the inflation.

Inflation Rate in Japan decreased to 3.50 percent in May from 3.60 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Japan Inflation Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This paper investigates the role of commodity price information when evaluating inflation risk. Using a model averaging approach, we provide strong evidence of in-sample and out-of-sample predictive ability from commodity prices and convenience yields to inflation, establishing clear point and density forecast performance gains when incorporating disaggregated commodities price information. The resulting forecast densities are used to calculate the (ex-ante) risk of inflation breaching defined thresholds that broadly characterize periods of high and low inflation. We find that information in commodity prices significantly enhances our ability to pick out tail inflation events and to characterize the level of risks associated with periods of high volatility in commodity prices.

Inflation rates in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) ranged from ** percent inflation in Myanmar to **** percent inflation in Thailand in 2025. Only a few countries are in the 2 to 6 percent range that many economists view as optimal for emerging economies. Effects of high inflation High inflation is generally detrimental to the economy. Prices tend to rise faster than wages, meaning that people and firms have less purchasing power. This in turn leads to slower growth in the gross domestic product (GDP). It also leads to a weaker currency. For countries with a positive trade balance this can be beneficial, because exports are relatively cheaper to foreign buyers. Through the same mechanism, net importers suffer from a weaker currency. Additionally, inflation makes a country’s national debt less expensive if the debt is denominated in the local currency. However, most of this debt is in U.S. dollars, so inflation makes the debt more difficult to service and repay. Risks of deflation With deflation, consumers and firms delay investments because they expect prices to be lower in the future. This slows consumption and investment, two major components of GDP growth. The most common example of this is Japan, where the GDP growth rate has been low for a long time due, in large part, to deflation. For this reason, countries like Brunei would rather see low and stable inflation than slight deflation.

Abstract (en): This research focuses on the longer-term monetary relationships in historical data. Charts describing the 10-year average growth rates in the M2 monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and inflation are used to show that there is a consistent longer-term correlation between M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation but not between such nominal variables and real GDP growth. The data reveal extremely long cycles in monetary growth and inflation, the most recent of which was the strong upward trend in M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation during the 1960s and 1970s, and the strong downward trend since then. Data going back to the 19th century show that the most recent inflation/disinflation cycle is a repetition of earlier long monetary growth and inflation cycles in the United States historical record. Also discussed is a measure of bond market inflation credibility, defined as the difference between averages in long-term bond rates and real GDP growth. By this measure, inflation credibility hovered close to zero during the 1950s and early 1960s, but then rose to a peak of about 10 percent in the early 1980s. During the 1990s, the bond market has yet to restore the low inflation credibility that existed before inflation turned up during the 1960s. The conclusion is that the risks of starting another costly inflation/disinflation cycle could be avoided by monitoring monetary growth and maintaining a sufficiently tight policy to keep inflation low. An environment of credible price stability would allow the economy to function unfettered by inflationary distortions, which is all that can reasonably be expected of monetary policy, and is precisely what should be expected. (1) The file submitted is the data file 9811WD.DAT. (2) These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

In this paper we use GARCH-M methods to test four hypotheses about the effects of real and nominal uncertainty on average inflation and output growth in the United States from 1948 to 1996. We find no evidence that higher inflation uncertainty or higher output growth uncertainty raises the average inflation rate. We also find no support for the idea that more risky output growth is associated with a higher average real growth rate. Our key result is that in a variety of models and sample periods, inflation uncertainty significantly lowers real output growth.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.

Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.

For more information, please visit the "https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.

Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.

For more information, please visit the "https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate.

Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.

For more information, please visit the "https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Prices in New Zealand rose by 1.72 percent in 2020. Central bankers at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand were surely relieved to see the rebound from the dangerously low .29 percent inflation in 2015.

What is inflation?

Inflation is the rise in price levels in an economy. 2 percent inflation means 100 New Zealand dollars will be worth 98 dollars in one year. While the precise inflation target varies, most economists agree that inflation between 2 to 3 percent is optimal for an economy. High inflation can lead to higher unemployment because firms would rather wait and higher workers at the same price using future dollars, making the labor relatively cheaper. However, it affects the trade balance because of the relatively higher purchasing power of foreign currencies.

Other risks of inflation and deflation

Inflation helps a country with higher national debt when the debt is in the local currency, because the country can repay with the future dollars which are relatively cheaper. Deflation, then, helps when debts are in a foreign currency. The main problem with deflation is that investors prefer to hold their money, waiting to invest until it is worth more. This is particularly true of countries like New Zealand, where the lion’s share of employment is in the services sector.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

S&P 500 Inflation Risk

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

This is not going to be an article or Op-Ed about Michael Jordan. Since 2009 we've been in the longest bull-market in history, that's 11 years and counting. However a few metrics like the stock market P/E, the call to put ratio and of course the Shiller P/E suggest a great crash is coming in-between the levels of 1929 and the dot.com bubble. Mean reversion historically is inevitable and the Fed's printing money experiment could end in disaster for the stock market in late 2021 or 2022. You can read Jeremy Grantham's Last Dance article here. You are likely well aware of Michael Burry's predicament as well. It's easier for you just to skim through two related videos on this topic of a stock market crash. Michael Burry's Warning see this YouTube. Jeremy Grantham's Warning See this YouTube. Typically when there is a major event in the world, there is a crash and then a bear market and a recovery that takes many many months. In March, 2020 that's not what we saw since the Fed did some astonishing things that means a liquidity sloth and the risk of a major inflation event. The pandemic represented the quickest decline of at least 30% in the history of the benchmark S&P 500, but the recovery was not correlated to anything but Fed intervention. Since the pandemic clearly isn't disappearing and many sectors such as travel, business travel, tourism and supply chain disruptions appear significantly disrupted - the so-called economic recovery isn't so great. And there's this little problem at the heart of global capitalism today, the stock market just keeps going up. Crashes and corrections typically occur frequently in a normal market. But the Fed liquidity and irresponsible printing of money is creating a scenario where normal behavior isn't occurring on the markets. According to data provided by market analytics firm Yardeni Research, the benchmark index has undergone 38 declines of at least 10% since the beginning of 1950. Since March, 2020 we've barely seen a down month. September, 2020 was flat-ish. The S&P 500 has more than doubled since those lows. Look at the angle of the curve: The S&P 500 was 735 at the low in 2009, so in this bull market alone it has gone up 6x in valuation. That's not a normal cycle and it could mean we are due for an epic correction. I have to agree with the analysts who claim that the long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. There is a complacency, buy-the dip frenzy and general meme environment to what BigTech can do in such an environment. The weight of Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Nvidia and Tesla together in the S&P and Nasdaq is approach a ridiculous weighting. When these stocks are seen both as growth, value and companies with unbeatable moats the entire dynamics of the stock market begin to break down. Check out FANG during the pandemic. BigTech is Seen as Bullet-Proof me valuations and a hysterical speculative behavior leads to even higher highs, even as 2020 offered many younger people an on-ramp into investing for the first time. Some analysts at JP Morgan are even saying that until retail investors stop charging into stocks, markets probably don’t have too much to worry about. Hedge funds with payment for order flows can predict exactly how these retail investors are behaving and monetize them. PFOF might even have to be banned by the SEC. The risk-on market theoretically just keeps going up until the Fed raises interest rates, which could be in 2023! For some context, we're more than 1.4 years removed from the bear-market bottom of the coronavirus crash and haven't had even a 5% correction in nine months. This is the most over-priced the market has likely ever been. At the night of the dot-com bubble the S&P 500 was only 1,400. Today it is 4,500, not so many years after. Clearly something is not quite right if you look at history and the P/E ratios. A market pumped with liquidity produces higher earnings with historically low interest rates, it's an environment where dangerous things can occur. In late 1997, as the S&P 500 passed its previous 1929 peak of 21x earnings, that seemed like a lot, but nothing compared to today. For some context, the S&P 500 Shiller P/E closed last week at 38.58, which is nearly a two-decade high. It's also well over double the average Shiller P/E of 16.84, dating back 151 years. So the stock market is likely around 2x over-valued. Try to think rationally about what this means for valuations today and your favorite stock prices, what should they be in historical terms? The S&P 500 is up 31% in the past year. It will likely hit 5,000 before a correction given the amount of added liquidity to the system and the QE the Fed is using that's like a huge abuse of MMT, or Modern Monetary Theory. This has also lent to bubbles in the housing market, crypto and even commodities like Gold with long-term global GDP meeting many headwinds in the years ahead due to a...

This paper estimates a model in which persistent fluctuations in expected consumption growth, expected inflation, and their time-varying volatility determine asset price variation. The model features Epstein-Zin recursive preferences, which determine the market price of macro risk factors. Analysis of the US nominal term structure data from 1953 to 2006 shows that agents dislike high uncertainty and demand compensation for volatility risks. Also, the time variation of the term premium is driven by the compensation for inflation volatility risk, which is distinct from consumption volatility risk. The central role of inflation volatility risk in explaining the time-varying term premium is consistent with other empirical evidence including survey data. In contrast, the existing long-run risks literature emphasizes consumption volatility risk and ignores inflation-specific time-varying volatility. The estimation results of this paper suggest that inflation-specific volatility risk is essential for fitting the time series of the US nominal term structure data.

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Predictions suggest a continued bullish trend for the Nasdaq index, with a potential for further upside momentum. However, risks remain, including geopolitical uncertainties, interest rate hikes, and inflation concerns. Investors should proceed with caution and consider a diversified portfolio to mitigate these risks while pursuing potential gains.