We study how model uncertainty affects the understanding of the interest rate persistence using a generalized Taylor-rule function covering numerous submodels via model average approach. The data-driven weights can be regarded as a measure of power-sharing across monetary policy committee members. We show that the model uncertainty is important in Canada, France, and Sweden, and the implied weights indicate that the U.K. and the U.S. have a lower model uncertainty caused either by an over-influential chairman or the consistent agreement of committee members. The importance of model uncertainty can be emphasized by sequential estimation during the 2008 financial crisis.

We present federal funds rates coming from a range of simple monetary policy rules based on multiple economic forecasts. Use our tool to create your own rule. Released quarterly.

Central banks set the nominal interest rate to target inflation and stabilize output. In monetary models, monetary policy affects output directly via the wealth effect. I show that in these models, the response of the central bank to fluctuations in output may induce real indeterminacy even if the Taylor principle is satisfied. I find that the determinacy conditions depend on the interest elasticity of output and generally, the Taylor principle is neither necessary nor sufficient for determinacy. This is in stark contrast with the New Keynesian model where a sufficiently strong policy response to inflation or output usually ensures determinacy.The replication package contains the data used for calibration and Matlab programs used to obtain determinacy regions numerically.

This dataset contains the readme.pdf file and Dynare codes required to replicate the simulation results presented in the paper.

Banker buys goods from c-retailers.

This paper characterizes a robust optimal policy rule in a simple forward-looking model, when the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters and shock processes. We show that the robust optimal policy rule is likely to involve a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctuations in inflation and the output gap than is the case in the absence of uncertainty. Thus parameter uncertainty alone does not necessarily justify a small response of monetary policy to perturbations. However, uncertainty may amplify the degree of super-inertia required by optimal monetary policy. We finally discuss the sensitivity of the results to alternative assumptions.

The data and programs replicate tables and figures from "Convenience Yield and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Present-Value Interpretation", by Yu-Hsi Chou, and Chia-Yi Yen. Please see the ReadMe file for additional details.

Abstract

The Survey on Interest Rate Controls 2020 was conducted as a World Bank Group study on interest rate controls (IRCs) in lending and deposit markets around the world. The study aims to identify the different types of formal (or de jure) controls, the countries that apply then, how they implement them, and the reasons for doing so. The objective of the study is to advance knowledge on this topic by providing an evidence base for investigating the impact of IRCs on economic outcomes.

The survey investigates present IRCs in each surveyed country, the reasons why they have been applied, the framework and resources associated with their application and the details as to their level and functioning. The focus is on legal forms of control (i.e. codified into law) as opposed to de facto controls. The new database on interest rate controls, a popular form of financial repression is based on a survey of 108 countries, representing 88 percent of global gross domestic product. The interest rate controls presented in this dataset were in effect in 2019.

Geographic coverage

Global Survey, covering 108 countries, representing 88 percent of global GDP.

Analysis unit

Regulation at the national level.

Universe

Banking supervisors and Local Banking Associations.

Kind of data

Sample survey data [ssd]

Mode of data collection

Mail Questionnaire [mail]

Research instrument

Bank supervisors and banking associations were provided with a standard excel file with five parts. The survey was structured in five parts, each placed in a different excel sheet. Part A: Introduction. Countries with no IRCs in place were asked to only answer this sheet and leave the rest blank. Part B: Presented the definitions of controls, institutions, products and additional aspects that will be covered in the survey. Part C: Introduced a set of qualitative questions to describe the IRCs in place. Part D: Displayed a set of tables to quantitatively describe the IRCs in place. Part E: Laid out the final set of questions, covering sanctions and control mechanisms that support the IRCs' enforcement. The questionnaire is provided in the Documentation section in pdf and excel.

Electronic payment system.

Spain Interest Rate: Business Transaction: Law 3/04 data was reported at 8.000 % pa in Oct 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 8.000 % pa for Sep 2018. Spain Interest Rate: Business Transaction: Law 3/04 data is updated monthly, averaging 8.250 % pa from Jul 2002 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 196 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 11.200 % pa in Jun 2008 and a record low of 7.750 % pa in Feb 2013. Spain Interest Rate: Business Transaction: Law 3/04 data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bank of Spain. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Spain – Table ES.M014: Legal and Debt Rate.

Helicopter money / lump-sum tax.

Banker buys goods from d-retailers.

This paper studies determinacy conditions in the neoclassical monetary model where money enters utility and the production function and when the central bank follows an interest rate rule. In addition to inflation, I let the central bank respond to output too, a case empirically relevant but seemingly overlooked in the existing literature. I find that the determinacy conditions depend on the interest elasticity of output and that, generally, the Taylor principle is neither necessary nor sufficient for determinacy. This is in stark contrast with the New Keynesian model, where a sufficiently strong response to inflation or output leads to determinacy.The replication package contains the data used for calibration and Matlab programs used to obtain determinacy regions numerically.

The benchmark interest rate in Russia was last recorded at 20 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

On December 15, 2020, the FDIC Board of Directors approved a Final Rule (https://www.fdic.gov/news/board/2020/2020-12-15-notice-dis-a-fr.pdf) making certain revisions to the interest rate restrictions applicable to less than well capitalized institutions (as defined in Section 38 of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act), which are effective on April 1, 2021. The interest rate restrictions generally limit a less than well capitalized institution from soliciting deposits by offering rates that significantly exceed rates in its prevailing market.

The Final Rule redefined the "national rate" as the average of rates paid by all insured depository institutions and credit unions for which data is available, with rates weighted by each institution's share of domestic deposits. The "national rate cap" is calculated as the higher of: (1) the national rate plus 75 basis points; or (2) 120 percent of the current yield on similar maturity U.S. Treasury obligations plus 75 basis points. The national rate cap for non-maturity deposits is the higher of the national rate plus 75 basis points or the federal funds rate plus 75 basis points.

A less than well capitalized institution may use the "local rate cap" in place of the national rate cap for deposits gathered from within the institution's local market area. The Final Rule redefined the "local rate cap" for a particular deposit product as 90 percent of the highest rate offered on the deposit product by an institution or credit union accepting deposits at a physical location within the institution's local market area.

In accordance with Section 337.7(d), an insured depository institution that seeks to pay a rate of interest up to its local market rate cap shall provide notice and evidence of the highest rate paid on a particular deposit product in the institution's local market areas to the appropriate FDIC regional director. The institution shall update its evidence and calculations for existing and new accounts monthly unless otherwise instructed by the appropriate FDIC regional director, and retain such information available for at least the two most recent examination cycles and, upon the FDIC's request, provide the documentation to the appropriate FDIC regional office and to examination staff during any subsequent examinations.

How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? We consider a simple model where firms are subject to shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms' assets and liabilities are nominal and predetermined. Monetary policy can therefore affect the real value of funds used to finance production. In this model, allowing for inflation volatility in response to aggregate shocks can be optimal; the optimal response to adverse financial shocks is to lower interest rates and to engineer some inflation; and the Taylor rule may implement allocations that have opposite cyclical properties to the optimal ones. (JEL G32, E31, E43, E44, E52)

Empirical models of the federal funds rate almost uniformly use the quarterly or monthly average of the daily rates. One empirical question about the federal funds rate concerns the extent to which monetary policymakers smooth this interest rate. Under the hypothesis of rate smoothing, policymakers set the interest rate this period equal to a weighted average of the rate inherited from the previous quarter and the rate implied by current economic conditions, such as the Taylor rule rate. Perhaps surprisingly, however, little attention has been given to measuring the interest rate inherited from the previous quarter. Previous tests for interest rate smoothing have assumed that the quarterly or monthly average from the previous period is the inherited rate. The authors of this study, in contrast, suggest that the end-of-quarter level of the target federal funds rate is the inherited rate, and empirical tests support this proposition. The authors show that this alternative view of the rate inherited from the past affects empirical results concerning interest rate smoothing, even in relatively rich models that include regime switching.

Banker takes deposits (left) and makes interbank loan (right).

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to May 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The Federal Reserve Banks pay interest on reserve balances of depository institutions. The Board of Governors has prescribed rules governing the payment of interest by Federal Reserve Banks in Regulation D (Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions, 12 CFR Part 204). The rate paid on reserves balances is the interest on reserve balance (IORB) rate. The dataset containing the IORB rate is generally updated each business day at 4:30 p.m., Eastern Time, with the next business day's IORB rate. The dataset is not updated on federal holidays. For more information on interest on reserve balances please refer to Federal Reserve Board - Interest on Reserve Balances.