Fuel prices, already high due to a recovering post-pandemic economy, surged even higher after Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 2022. As of May of that same year, UCOME (used cooking oil methyl ester) average wholesale prices were higher than any other fuel, standing at 2,607 U.S. dollars per metric ton of oil equivalent. This represented an increase of over 124 percent when compared to 2018/2019 average prices. However, the largest price increase was reported for TME (tallow methyl ester). As of May 2022, TME's average wholesale price amounted to 1,112 U.S. dollars per metric ton of oil equivalent, up by more than 133 percent in comparison to 2018/2019.

The global fuel energy price index stood at 159.45 index points in April 2025, up from 100 in the base year 2016. Figures decreased that month due to widespread tariffs and lower heating fuel demand. The fuel energy index includes prices for crude oil, natural gas, coal, and propane. Supply constraints across multiple commodities The global natural gas price index surged nearly 11-fold, and the global coal price index rose almost seven-fold from summer 2020 to summer 2022. This notable escalation was largely attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war, exerting increased pressure on the global supply chain. Global ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war The invasion of Ukraine by Russia played a role in the surge of global inflation rates. Notably, Argentina bore the brunt, experiencing a hyperinflation rate of 92 percent in 2022. The war also exerted a significant impact on global gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Saudi Arabia emerged with a notable increase of nearly three percent, as several Western nations shifted their exports from Russia to Middle Eastern countries due to the sanctions imposed on the former.

Nearly ** percent of U.S. registered voters are very concerned over the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on gasoline prices at home. According to a March 2022 survey, ** percent of Democrats and ** percent of Republicans expressed a strong level of concern over rising gasoline prices in the wake of economic sanctions on Russia.

European gas prices stay above EUR35/MWh due to stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks, cold weather forecasts, and LNG supply shifts. Discover the market dynamics and future outlook.

In March 2022, the majority of Hungarians were concerned that gas prices would increase as a consequence of the Russia-Ukraine war. Fidesz-KDNP voters were the most optimistic about future gas prices as only ** percent of them expressed their worry.

Natural gas producers are facing turbulent times. Europe has traditionally relied on Russia and Norway as internal sources of natural gas, while countries such as the US, Qatar and Algeria are major sources of imports (although accounting for a much smaller share of overall consumption). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken up Europe’s natural gas supply structure, with European governments making efforts to reduce their dependence on Russian gas supplies. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 16.2% to €113.9 billion over the five years through 2025. Revenue expanded in 2021 and 2022 as a sharp hike in natural gas prices and a post-pandemic rise in demand drove an increase in exploration and production activity. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in natural gas prices, with the impacts of reduced demand for gas and a decrease in Russian gas production outweighed by soaring wholesale prices and heightened demand for other natural gas reserves, spurring a jump in revenue. An ongoing reduction in demand for natural gas and easing prices caused revenue to dip in 2023 and 2024. In 2025, revenue is slated to bounce back by 53.3% owing to geopolitical uncertainties, including trade wars and fresh sanctions on Russia, buoying natural gas prices. Revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 2.3% over the five years through 2030 to just under €128 billion. The gas market will continue to be shaped by geopolitical tensions into the medium term, with the International Energy Agency expecting natural gas prices to remain high until 2025 as countries continue to shift their supply structure. Following this, natural gas demand and prices are set to fall as Europe continues to expand its renewables capacity.

In 2024, the price of natural gas in Europe reached 11 constant U.S. dollars per million British thermal units, compared with 2.2 U.S. dollars in the U.S. This was a notable decrease compared to the previous year, which had seen a steep increase in prices due to an energy supply shortage exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. Since 1980, natural gas prices have typically been higher in Europe than in the United States and are expected to remain so for the coming two years. This is due to the U.S. being a significantly larger natural gas producer than Europe. What is natural gas and why is it gaining ground in the energy market? Natural gas is commonly burned in power plants with combustion turbines that generate electricity or used as a heating fuel. Given the fact that the world’s energy demand continues to grow, natural gas was seen by some industry leaders as an acceptable "bridge-fuel" to overcome the use of more emission-intensive energy sources such as coal. Subsequently, natural gas has become the main fuel for electricity generation in the U.S., while the global gas power generation share has reached over 22 percent. How domestic production shapes U.S. natural gas prices The combination of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) and horizontal drilling can be regarded as one of the oil and gas industry’s biggest breakthroughs in decades, with the U.S. being the largest beneficiary. This technology has helped the industry release unprecedented quantities of gas from deposits, mainly shale and tar sands that were previously thought either inaccessible or uneconomic. It is forecast that U.S. shale gas production could reach 36 trillion cubic feet in 2050, up from 1.77 trillion cubic feet in 2000.

How is the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine invasion – including Western sanctions on Russia and disruption to oil supply – expected to affect UK industries?

In November 2024, the European Union (EU) imported around 2.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia. That was more than in the previous month. Over the observed period, the imports peaked at approximately 8.2 billion cubic meters in March 2022, a month after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Natural gas producers are facing turbulent times. Europe has traditionally relied on Russia and Norway as internal sources of natural gas, while countries such as the US, Qatar and Algeria are major sources of imports (although accounting for a much smaller share of overall consumption). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken up Europe’s natural gas supply structure, with European governments making efforts to reduce their dependence on Russian gas supplies. Revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 16.2% to €113.9 billion over the five years through 2025. Revenue expanded in 2021 and 2022 as a sharp hike in natural gas prices and a post-pandemic rise in demand drove an increase in exploration and production activity. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in natural gas prices, with the impacts of reduced demand for gas and a decrease in Russian gas production outweighed by soaring wholesale prices and heightened demand for other natural gas reserves, spurring a jump in revenue. An ongoing reduction in demand for natural gas and easing prices caused revenue to dip in 2023 and 2024. In 2025, revenue is slated to bounce back by 53.3% owing to geopolitical uncertainties, including trade wars and fresh sanctions on Russia, buoying natural gas prices. Revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 2.3% over the five years through 2030 to just under €128 billion. The gas market will continue to be shaped by geopolitical tensions into the medium term, with the International Energy Agency expecting natural gas prices to remain high until 2025 as countries continue to shift their supply structure. Following this, natural gas demand and prices are set to fall as Europe continues to expand its renewables capacity.

The global gasoline and fuel market, valued at $1.85 billion in 2025, is projected to experience steady growth, driven primarily by the continued reliance on internal combustion engine vehicles, particularly in developing economies experiencing rapid motorization. While the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 1.06% suggests a moderate expansion, this figure likely underrepresents the market's dynamism, as it doesn't account for fluctuating oil prices and evolving geopolitical landscapes. Significant growth drivers include the increasing demand from transportation sectors (both passenger and commercial vehicles), power generation in regions with limited access to renewable energy, and the continued use of gasoline in other applications such as machinery and equipment. However, restraining factors include the rising adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), government regulations promoting cleaner energy sources, and the intermittent fluctuations in global crude oil prices that impact fuel costs and availability. The market segmentation reveals that transportation holds the largest share, closely followed by power generation, with 'others' representing a smaller but still significant portion. Major players, including Chevron, ExxonMobil, PetroChina, and others, are strategically navigating these dynamics through investments in renewable energy and efficiency improvements in fuel production and distribution, while also adapting to the growing EV market. The geographical distribution of the market reflects established economic patterns. North America and Asia Pacific (particularly China and India) represent significant market segments, fueled by high vehicle ownership rates and energy demands in rapidly industrializing regions. Europe, while showing relatively mature markets, continues to contribute substantially. South America and the Middle East & Africa represent markets with varying growth potentials, influenced by their specific economic conditions and energy policies. Future growth will depend critically on the balance between increasing vehicle ownership and the global shift toward electric and alternative fuel vehicles, coupled with the ongoing influence of energy policies and geopolitical factors on global oil prices. While a relatively low CAGR is projected, specific regional markets and segments within the industry are likely to show more pronounced variations in growth rates, creating opportunities for strategic market players. Recent developments include: In October 2023, Aramco and ENOWA, NEOM’s energy and water company, have signed a joint development agreement to construct and establish a first-of-its-kind synthetic electro-fuel (e-fuel) demonstration plant aimed to display technological feasibility and commercial viability by developing thirty five barrels per day of low-carbon, synthetic gasoline from renewable-based hydrogen and captured carbon dioxide (CO2)., In July 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced that contracts have been awarded for the purchase of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This contract awards are part announcement of president to release one million barrels of crude oil a day for six months to address the significant global supply disruption caused by Russia-Ukraine war.. Key drivers for this market are: 4., Rising Adoption of Automobiles such as Passenger Cars, Motorcycles Across the World4.; Easy Availability of Gasoline. Potential restraints include: 4., Rising Adoption of Automobiles such as Passenger Cars, Motorcycles Across the World4.; Easy Availability of Gasoline. Notable trends are: Transportation Segment is Expected to Dominate in the Market.

Europe’s petroleum and natural gas extraction support services’ revenue is forecast to contract at a compound annual rate of 3.8% over the five years through 2024 to €62.1 billion. Widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic weighed heavily on extraction and exploration activity in downstream oil and gas markets as poor demand conditions caused prices to plummet, disincentivising new investment and causing support service contractors to offer price concessions to customers, compounding the industry’s weak revenue performance and weighing on profitability. Demand has increased since lockdown restrictions eased, supporting revenue over 2021 and 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to significant price increases in both oil and gas due to supply uncertainties. This also led to Norway becoming Europe’s largest natural gas supplier in 2022, supporting revenue opportunities for Norwegian contractors. Norway has also increased the level of investment into new oil and gas fields to alleviate uncertainties regarding supply following trade restrictions placed on Russian oil and gas. Nonetheless, weakening demand and falling oil and gas prices have contributed to an expected revenue slump of 20.3% in 2024. Over the five years through 2029, revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 7% to €87.2 billion. New investments into oil and gas fields will provide contractors with new revenue opportunities, supporting revenue growth and expanding profitability. However, ongoing efforts across Europe to meet environmental and emissions targets, like net zero by 2050, will continue to threaten demand for oil and gas, somewhat limiting revenue growth.

UK oil and gas production has diminished over the past decade because old oil fields have matured while developing new commercially viable sources has become increasingly challenging. To combat this, extractors have pooled their resources and formed partnerships to enhance efficiency, while some have benefitted from previous investments in fields coming onstream. Oil and gas extracting companies also reaped the rewards of an upsurge in global prices through 2022-23, leading to sharp revenue growth. However, this quickly turned around in 2023-24, with most major companies’ revenue nosediving along with oil prices, as growing global oil and gas from America flooded the market, slightly outpacing demand. Revenue is expected to expand at a compound annual rate of 3.4% over the five years through 2024-25 to just over £33 billion. This includes a forecast hike of 5.3% in 2024-25; however, profit is slated to inch downward over the year as global oil and gas prices remain somewhat flat in the second half of 2024-25. Global oil and gas prices greatly affect the industry's performance, with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) putting supply cuts in place and global tensions resulting in price peaks and troughs. In October 2022, OPEC instituted a supply cut of two million barrels of crude oil per day, driving Brent Crude Oil prices up to US$110 (£87.80) per barrel, which has been extended until March 2025, with a ramping up period through September 2025. This is set to keep oil prices stable by limiting global oil supplies in the face of growing production in non-OPEC countries. The sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict add further impetus to prices. The EU has banned imports of Russian-made oil and gas, providing opportunities for UK exporters. Crude oil prices remain high, but significant oil production from non-OPEC countries threatening a glut in the oil market and a significant dip in global demand (especially from China) has made oil prices plummet since July 2024. Despite mounting tensions in the Middle East having the potential to cut oil supply from the region, the ongoing political tensions have yet to significantly impact global prices, with prices hiking up around 10% in the month to October 2024 but remaining relatively low. Oil and gas prices are likely to continue inching downwards in the coming years as the US is forecast to continue ramping up the global oil and gas supply. This, along with an expected drop in global demand for oil and gas in the long term, will limit growth. The UK government will implement policies to create a more favourable environment for extractors and further investment in the North Sea to improve UK energy security. However, the depletion of natural resources, the expensive cost of extraction, low gas and oil prices and the global energy transition will threaten the industry's long-term viability. The government announced a delay to the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, along with the relaxation of some net-zero policies in September 2023, which should keep fossil fuel explorers afloat for longer. Revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 3.4% over the five years through 2029-30 to just over £39 billion.

The Gas Utilities industry in Europe has been anything but steady recently. The Russia-Ukraine war has rocked the whole supply chain, with Russia tightening its gas supply, Europe hustling to cut its reliance on Russian gas and gas prices shooting up following the initial invasion. Amid unprecedented price increases and threats to the supply of gas into Europe, European governments have been forced to step in to support customers and protect energy supplies. All that aside, the industry remains threatened by a long-term decline in gas consumption and accelerating efforts to transition to renewable sources of energy. Revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.4% over the five years through 2025, reaching €401.9 billion. This growth is almost solely attributable to a spike in revenue recorded during 2022, which followed a recovery from pandemic-induced lows during 2021, when prices and demand recovered as global economic activity rebounded. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kicked off a period of significant disruption in energy markets, with a surge in gas prices leading to record revenue and profitability for gas manufacturers while causing substantial losses for gas suppliers. Wholesale prices have eased from record highs as European governments have reduced reliance on Russian gas. At the same time, a drop in demand for gas has also contributed to a revenue contraction since the height of the energy crisis. Revenue is set to decline by 3.9% in 2025. Revenue is forecast to increase at a compound annual rate of 1% to €422.2 billion over the five years through 2030. European markets are set to pursue a green revolution in the coming years, with investment in renewable energy sources gathering pace as European governments strive towards emissions reduction targets. Investment in green alternatives to natural gas is likely to lead to a fall in demand, with plans set out by the European Commission to at least triple solar thermal capacity by 2030, displacing the consumption of nine billion cubic metres of gas annually. Gas prices are set to continue to stabilise in the short term, before falling rapidly as renewable generation capacity rises.

Ukraine Price Index: Exports: Mineral Fuel & Petroleum Products data was reported at 124.217 Same Mth PY=100 in Feb 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 136.912 Same Mth PY=100 for Jan 2025. Ukraine Price Index: Exports: Mineral Fuel & Petroleum Products data is updated monthly, averaging 828.500 Same Mth PY=100 from Jan 2013 (Median) to Feb 2025, with 146 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,715.000 Same Mth PY=100 in Mar 2017 and a record low of 58.397 Same Mth PY=100 in Jan 2024. Ukraine Price Index: Exports: Mineral Fuel & Petroleum Products data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ukraine – Table UA.JA015: Merchandise Trade. Data release delayed due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. No estimation on next release date can be made.

The U.S. oil and gas market, a significant contributor to the global energy landscape, is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing energy demand and a complex interplay of factors. While precise market sizing for the USA alone is absent from the provided data, we can infer substantial value based on the global CAGR of >4.00% and North America's significant role in global oil and gas production. Assuming a similar growth trajectory, and considering the US's considerable share of the North American market, the US oil and gas market size likely exceeds several hundred billion USD in 2025. Key drivers include sustained domestic consumption, ongoing exploration and production activities in shale formations (like the Permian Basin), and government policies aimed at energy independence. Emerging trends include increased investment in renewable energy sources alongside continued fossil fuel reliance, a shift towards more sustainable extraction techniques, and technological advancements improving efficiency and reducing environmental impact. However, regulatory hurdles related to environmental protection, fluctuating global oil prices, and geopolitical instability pose significant restraints on market expansion. The upstream sector, encompassing exploration and production, plays a crucial role, while the midstream segment, focusing on transportation and storage, and the downstream segment, covering refining and marketing, are equally vital components. Major players like Shell, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips dominate the market, leveraging advanced technologies and strategic partnerships. The future of the U.S. oil and gas market suggests a continuation of moderate growth, influenced by the global energy transition. While renewable energy adoption is accelerating, the sustained demand for oil and gas in the short to medium term ensures the industry's continued importance. Strategies for sustainable growth will involve increasing efficiency, reducing carbon emissions through carbon capture and storage technologies, and adapting to a changing regulatory environment. Diversification into cleaner energy sources and leveraging advanced analytics to optimize production and supply chains will be crucial for long-term success in this dynamic market. The competitiveness within the industry, particularly amongst the large integrated oil companies, will continue to shape market dynamics, driving innovation and technological advancements. Recent developments include: March 2022: The United States' President Joe Biden agreed to a landmark energy supply deal with the European Union. Under this deal, the United States was expected to increase transatlantic gas deliveries. This deal is important to reduce dependence on Russia after the Russia-Ukraine War., January 2022: The Department of Energy announced the release of 13.4 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The release of the emergency oil reserves aimed to combat rising gasoline prices in the United States and the lack of oil supply worldwide.. Notable trends are: Upstream Sector Expected Witness Significant Growth.

The paper analyzes the problem of entropy in the moments of transition from a normal economic situation (2015–2019) to the Pandemic period (2020–2021) and the period of Russia’s attack on Ukraine (2022–2023). The research in the article is based on the analysis of electricity, oil, coal, and gas prices in 27 countries of the European Union and Norway. The daily data cover the period from January 1, 2015, to March 30, 2023, and were analyzed using two-dimensional sets of electricity and commodity prices. The work uses the time dependent James-Stein estimator of the Shannon informational entropy.

The Gas Utilities industry in Europe has been anything but steady recently. The Russia-Ukraine war has rocked the whole supply chain, with Russia tightening its gas supply, Europe hustling to cut its reliance on Russian gas and gas prices shooting up following the initial invasion. Amid unprecedented price increases and threats to the supply of gas into Europe, European governments have been forced to step in to support customers and protect energy supplies. All that aside, the industry remains threatened by a long-term decline in gas consumption and accelerating efforts to transition to renewable sources of energy. Revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.4% over the five years through 2025, reaching €401.9 billion. This growth is almost solely attributable to a spike in revenue recorded during 2022, which followed a recovery from pandemic-induced lows during 2021, when prices and demand recovered as global economic activity rebounded. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kicked off a period of significant disruption in energy markets, with a surge in gas prices leading to record revenue and profitability for gas manufacturers while causing substantial losses for gas suppliers. Wholesale prices have eased from record highs as European governments have reduced reliance on Russian gas. At the same time, a drop in demand for gas has also contributed to a revenue contraction since the height of the energy crisis. Revenue is set to decline by 3.9% in 2025. Revenue is forecast to increase at a compound annual rate of 1% to €422.2 billion over the five years through 2030. European markets are set to pursue a green revolution in the coming years, with investment in renewable energy sources gathering pace as European governments strive towards emissions reduction targets. Investment in green alternatives to natural gas is likely to lead to a fall in demand, with plans set out by the European Commission to at least triple solar thermal capacity by 2030, displacing the consumption of nine billion cubic metres of gas annually. Gas prices are set to continue to stabilise in the short term, before falling rapidly as renewable generation capacity rises.

Global wheat prices increased by over ** percent over the period from February 24 to June 1, 2022, compared to the average in January 2022. The growth was explained by the Russia-Ukraine war, as Russia and Ukraine were among the leading wheat exporters. Furthermore, coal prices grew by around ** percent. A significant increase was also recorded in the prices of metals exported by Russia, such as nickel, palladium, and aluminum.

U.S. gasoline prices changed little in June 2025 when compared to the month before. Regular gasoline prices remained at an average of 3.15 U.S. dollars per gallon. In the period of consideration, gasoline prices reached their highest level in June 2022. Differences in fuel grades Fuel grades at U.S. gas stations are differentiated by octane level. Higher grade fuels have higher octane levels, meaning that the fuel can be compressed more in the engine. This enables high-performance engines to create more power. Fuel may also vary from state to state and pump to pump. Some cities also have regulations on gasoline in order to improve air quality. Bioethanol is added to gasoline in some cases to meet the renewable fuel standard. Gasoline-run engines are able to run on blends with a bioethanol percentage of up to 25 percent. Gasoline prices reach historic high Primarily a result of the Russia-Ukraine war and inflation, the annual retail price of gasoline reached a new historic high in 2022, climbing to nearly four U.S. dollars per gallon. By 2024, annual prices had decreased again slightly, reaching 2014 levels.