Fuel prices, already high due to a recovering post-pandemic economy, surged even higher after Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 2022. As of May of that same year, UCOME (used cooking oil methyl ester) average wholesale prices were higher than any other fuel, standing at 2,607 U.S. dollars per metric ton of oil equivalent. This represented an increase of over 124 percent when compared to 2018/2019 average prices. However, the largest price increase was reported for TME (tallow methyl ester). As of May 2022, TME's average wholesale price amounted to 1,112 U.S. dollars per metric ton of oil equivalent, up by more than 133 percent in comparison to 2018/2019.

The global fuel energy price index stood at 188.62 index points in January 2025, up from 100 in the base year 2016. Figures increased that month due to a rise in crude oil prices as a result of new sanctions on Russian oil and greater heating fuel demand. The fuel energy index includes prices for crude oil, natural gas, coal, and propane. Supply constraints across multiple commodities The global natural gas price index surged nearly 11-fold, and the global coal price index rose almost seven-fold from summer 2020 to summer 2022. This notable escalation was largely attributed to the Russia-Ukraine war, exerting increased pressure on the global supply chain. Global ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war The invasion of Ukraine by Russia played a role in the surge of global inflation rates. Notably, Argentina bore the brunt, experiencing a hyperinflation rate of 92 percent in 2022. The war also exerted a significant impact on global gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Saudi Arabia emerged with a notable increase of nearly three percent, as several Western nations shifted their exports from Russia to Middle Eastern countries due to the sanctions imposed on the former.

The average monthly price for natural gas in the United States amounted to 3.02 nominal U.S. dollars per million British thermal units (Btu) in December 2024. By contrast, natural gas prices in Europe were about four times higher than those in the U.S. Prices for Europe tend to be notably higher than those in the U.S. as the latter benefits from being a major hydrocarbon producer. Europe's import reliance European prices for natural gas rose most notable throughout the second half of 2021 and much of 2022, peaking at over 70 U.S. dollars per million Btu in August 2022. The sharp rise was due to supply chain issues and economic strain following the COVID-19 pandemic, which was further exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. As a result of the war, many countries began looking for alternative sources, and Russian pipeline gas imports to the European Union declined as a result. Meanwhile, LNG was a great beneficiary, with LNG demand in Europe rising by more than 60 percent between 2021 and 2023. How domestic natural gas production shapes prices As intimated, the United States’ position among the leaders of worldwide natural gas production is one of the main reasons for why prices for this commodity are so low across the country. In 2023, the U.S. produced more than one trillion cubic meters of natural gas, which allays domestic demand and allows for far lower purchasing prices.

Natural gas producers are facing turbulent times. Europe has traditionally relied on Russia and Norway as internal sources of natural gas, while countries such as the US, Qatar and Algeria are a major source of imports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken up Europe’s natural gas supply structure, with European governments making efforts to reduce their dependence on Russian gas supplies. Revenue is forecast to fall at a compound annual rate of 4.4% to €71.6 billion over the five years through 2024. Revenue expanded in 2021 as a sharp hike in natural gas prices and a post-pandemic rise in demand drove an increase in exploration and production activity. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in natural gas prices, with the impacts of reduced demand for gas and a decrease in Russian gas production outweighed by soaring wholesale prices and heightened demand for other natural gas reserves, spurring a jump in revenue. An ongoing reduction in demand for natural gas and easing prices caused revenue to dip in 2023. This trend is expected to continue into 2024, when revenue is slated to fall by 57%. Revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 11.9% over the five years through 2029 to €125.3 billion. The gas market will continue to be shaped by geopolitical tensions into the medium term, with the International Energy Agency expecting natural gas prices to remain high until 2025 as countries continue to shift their supply structure. Following this, natural gas demand and prices are set to fall as Europe continues to expand its renewables capacity.

Natural gas producers are facing turbulent times. Europe has traditionally relied on Russia and Norway as internal sources of natural gas, while countries such as the US, Qatar and Algeria are a major source of imports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken up Europe’s natural gas supply structure, with European governments making efforts to reduce their dependence on Russian gas supplies. Revenue is forecast to fall at a compound annual rate of 4.4% to €71.6 billion over the five years through 2024. Revenue expanded in 2021 as a sharp hike in natural gas prices and a post-pandemic rise in demand drove an increase in exploration and production activity. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in natural gas prices, with the impacts of reduced demand for gas and a decrease in Russian gas production outweighed by soaring wholesale prices and heightened demand for other natural gas reserves, spurring a jump in revenue. An ongoing reduction in demand for natural gas and easing prices caused revenue to dip in 2023. This trend is expected to continue into 2024, when revenue is slated to fall by 57%. Revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 11.9% over the five years through 2029 to €125.3 billion. The gas market will continue to be shaped by geopolitical tensions into the medium term, with the International Energy Agency expecting natural gas prices to remain high until 2025 as countries continue to shift their supply structure. Following this, natural gas demand and prices are set to fall as Europe continues to expand its renewables capacity.

Global wheat prices increased by over 60 percent over the period from February 24 to June 1, 2022 compared to the average in January 2022. The growth was explained by the Russia-Ukraine war, as Russia and Ukraine were among the leading wheat exporters. Furthermore, coal prices grew by around 69 percent. A significant increase was also recorded in prices of metals exported by Russia, such as nickel, palladium, and aluminum.

The Gas Utilities industry in Europe has been anything but steady recently. The Russia-Ukraine war has rocked the whole supply chain, with Russia tightening its gas supply, Europe hustling to cut its reliance on Russian gas and gas prices shooting up following the initial invasion. Amid unprecedented price increases and threats to the supply of gas into Europe, European governments have been forced to step in to support customers and protect energy supplies. All that aside, the industry remains threatened by a long-term decline in gas consumption and accelerating efforts to transition to renewable sources of energy. Revenue is forecast to drop at a compound annual rate of 1.7% over the five years through 2024, reaching €390.5 billion. This growth is almost solely attributable to a spike in revenue recorded during 2022, which followed a recovery from pandemic-induced lows during 2021 when prices and demand recovered as global economic activity rebounded. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kicked off a period of significant disruption in energy markets, with a surge in gas prices leading to record revenue and profitability for gas manufacturers while causing substantial losses for gas suppliers. Wholesale prices have eased from record highs as European governments have reduced reliance on Russian gas. At the same time, a drop in demand for gas has also contributed to a revenue contraction since the height of the energy crisis. Revenue is set to decline by 5.4% in 2024. Revenue is forecast to increase at a compound annual rate of 1% to €410.7 billion over the five years through 2029. European markets are set to pursue a green revolution in the coming years, with investment in renewable energy sources gathering pace as European governments strive towards emissions reduction targets. Investment in green alternatives to natural gas is likely to lead to a fall in demand, with plans set out by the European Commission to at least triple solar thermal capacity by 2030, displacing the consumption of nine billion cubic metres of gas annually. Gas prices are forecast to continue to rise until 2025, as Europe diversifies its gas supplies, before falling rapidly as renewable generation capacity rises.

Natural gas producers are facing turbulent times. Europe has traditionally relied on Russia and Norway as internal sources of natural gas, while countries such as the US, Qatar and Algeria are a major source of imports. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken up Europe’s natural gas supply structure, with European governments making efforts to reduce their dependence on Russian gas supplies. Revenue is forecast to fall at a compound annual rate of 4.4% to €71.6 billion over the five years through 2024. Revenue expanded in 2021 as a sharp hike in natural gas prices and a post-pandemic rise in demand drove an increase in exploration and production activity. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a spike in natural gas prices, with the impacts of reduced demand for gas and a decrease in Russian gas production outweighed by soaring wholesale prices and heightened demand for other natural gas reserves, spurring a jump in revenue. An ongoing reduction in demand for natural gas and easing prices caused revenue to dip in 2023. This trend is expected to continue into 2024, when revenue is slated to fall by 57%. Revenue is forecast to rise at a compound annual rate of 11.9% over the five years through 2029 to €125.3 billion. The gas market will continue to be shaped by geopolitical tensions into the medium term, with the International Energy Agency expecting natural gas prices to remain high until 2025 as countries continue to shift their supply structure. Following this, natural gas demand and prices are set to fall as Europe continues to expand its renewables capacity.

In March 2024, the average monthly price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) stood at 664.5 U.S. dollars per metric ton. The price of VLSFO is strongly influenced by external factors, such as the price of crude oil and market forces of supply and demand. In the past two years, two separate events have had a profound effect on the price of VLSFO: the International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulfur cap on fuel oil in 2020 and, more recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli invasion of Gaza.

Effects of the 2020 IMO sulfur cap

In January 2020, a new limit on the sulfur content in fuel oil was introduced by the IMO. The goal of the cap was to reduce the concentration of sulfur in the air, thus reducing air pollution and preventing harm to marine ecosystems as well as protecting human health. Ship operators were forced to switch to VLSFO to comply with the new regulation, leading to a higher demand for VLSFO which in turn caused the price of VLSFO to increase to 649 U.S. dollars per metric ton in January 2020.

Shortly afterward, the world was hit with the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. With production facilities shutting down worldwide, maritime transport considerably slowed, driving the price of VLSFO to a historic minimum of 251 U.S. dollars per metric ton in April 2020.

Escalating conflict in Ukraine could raise fuel prices

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, most of the West reacted by imposing sanctions on Russia to weaken its economy. Although vital for the Russian economy, the Russian oil industry remained untargeted by direct sanctions during the first days of the invasion. However, sanctions cutting off Russia’s access to international financial markets and the SWIFT payment system, as well as divestments of Western oil companies from the Russian oil industry, could severely impact the country’s oil sector.

In 2020, Russia was the third-largest producer of crude oil in the world, accounting for about 12 percent of the world’s crude oil production. Disruptions to the Russian oil industry could, therefore, have consequences for the supply of oil to the global market and drive prices up. Since crude oil is the main component of VLSFO, an increase in the price of crude oil will most likely lead to a rise in the price of VLSFO.

This statistic shows the stock prices of selected oil and gas commodities from January 2, 2020 to February 4, 2025. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, energy prices climbed significantly. The highest increase can be observed for natural gas, whose price peaked in August and September 2022. By the beginning of 2023, natural gas price started to decline.

Europe’s petroleum and natural gas extraction support services’ revenue is forecast to contract at a compound annual rate of 3.8% over the five years through 2024 to €62.1 billion. Widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic weighed heavily on extraction and exploration activity in downstream oil and gas markets as poor demand conditions caused prices to plummet, disincentivising new investment and causing support service contractors to offer price concessions to customers, compounding the industry’s weak revenue performance and weighing on profitability. Demand has increased since lockdown restrictions eased, supporting revenue over 2021 and 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to significant price increases in both oil and gas due to supply uncertainties. This also led to Norway becoming Europe’s largest natural gas supplier in 2022, supporting revenue opportunities for Norwegian contractors. Norway has also increased the level of investment into new oil and gas fields to alleviate uncertainties regarding supply following trade restrictions placed on Russian oil and gas. Nonetheless, weakening demand and falling oil and gas prices have contributed to an expected revenue slump of 20.3% in 2024. Over the five years through 2029, revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 7% to €87.2 billion. New investments into oil and gas fields will provide contractors with new revenue opportunities, supporting revenue growth and expanding profitability. However, ongoing efforts across Europe to meet environmental and emissions targets, like net zero by 2050, will continue to threaten demand for oil and gas, somewhat limiting revenue growth.

The United States imported an average of 147,000 barrels of petroleum per day from Russia in 2022. The U.S. Congress passed a bill banning imports from oil, gas, coal, and other energy commodities from Russia in April 2022 as a reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Other Western countries did the same as an effort to penalize and put economic pressure on Russia. According to a survey from March 2022, 49 percent of U.S. registered voters supported the government's sanctions on Russian oil exports.

Market and price uncertainty

Even though Russia was among the leading countries for petroleum imports into the U.S., market disruptions caused by the imposed sanctions have still severely impacted U.S. average gas prices. In June 2022, gasoline prices reached a new peak of more than five U.S. dollars per gallon. By comparison, diesel prices climbed to around 5.8 U.S. dollars. With the world still grappling with the economic repercussions brought on by the pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war added another layer of uncertainty over market development. According to a June 2022 outlook, the average global GDP growth forecast change due to the Russia-Ukraine war was a 1.44 percent decrease to the projection made before the war. Only five countries out of the 42 included in the study were forecast to have a positive GDP growth.

Procurement prices of natural gas in Spain have been on a mostly downward trend throughout the first half of 2023. Prior to this, natural gas procurement prices in the Mediterranean country experienced a great increase between 2021 and 2022. In the latter year, the average natural gas procurement price amounted to roughly 60 euros per megawatt-hours, peaking at 80.58 euros per megawatt-hours in September, and reaching a low of 42.91 euros per megawatt-hours in February. By contrast, Spain's average procurement price of natural gas in 2020 was around 13.71 euros per megawatt-hours.

Why are gas prices so high?

One main reason behind natural gas prices soaring in the last couple of years is the post-pandemic economic recovery. As coronavirus restrictions were lifted and many industrial and commercial sectors resumed activity simultaneously, there was a sudden demand for energy. This led to a global energy supply shortage, which was further aggravated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The natural gas sector in Spain

Spain has a negligible production volume of natural gas that has been on a downward trend over the past years. Meanwhile, the import volume into the Mediterranean country has seen a mostly growing tendency. Spain’s main trading partner is the Algeria, which accounts for nearly 30 percent of the overall import volume. Altogether, natural gas constitutes an important source of energy in Spain, representing over 20 percent of the primary energy consumption, and coming only second to oil.

In 2024, the average price of diesel fuel in France was around 1.7 euros per liter, compared to an average price of 1.8 euros per liter in the previous year. In 2020, the price of diesel across France reached the lowest point on average compared to the previous years. The price of this commodity started to increase with the economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and kept growing with the market tightening that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It peaked at over two euros per liter in March and June 2022.

Revenue is forecast to fall at a compound annual rate of 5.4% over the five years through 2024. Volatile demand conditions and fluctuations in input prices have had mixed impacts on revenue and contributed to revenue volatility. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, natural gas prices soared. Manufacturers were initially forced to absorb these costs at the expense of profitability, producers were later able to pass these costs onto customers, supporting revenue and giving some respite for bottom lines. As well as rising input prices, supply chain disruptions led to a fertiliser shortage, driving prices upwards. In 2024, revenue is expected to dip by 5.1% to €45.2 billion. Although price increases have supported revenue, downstream markets, primarily farmers, have increased the efficiency of their fertiliser use. This has led to farmers reducing their total consumption of fertiliser, somewhat offsetting increased prices. Fertiliser manufacturers have increasingly invested in their operations to increase efficiency and reduce operating costs. This has included investing in automation to reduce emissions and labour reliance, especially due to the significantly high average wage. Over the five years through 2029, revenue is forecast to expand at a compound annual rate of 1.6% to reach €48.9 billion. Population growth will continue to fuel increased demand for agricultural products, requiring farmers to increase their yields and support the demand for fertilisers. However, growing environmental awareness will somewhat hinder demand. The number of organic farms will continue growing as the EU works towards its target, though some of this demand will be turned to organic fertilisers.

The Gas Utilities industry in Europe has been anything but steady recently. The Russia-Ukraine war has rocked the whole supply chain, with Russia tightening its gas supply, Europe hustling to cut its reliance on Russian gas and gas prices shooting up following the initial invasion. Amid unprecedented price increases and threats to the supply of gas into Europe, European governments have been forced to step in to support customers and protect energy supplies. All that aside, the industry remains threatened by a long-term decline in gas consumption and accelerating efforts to transition to renewable sources of energy. Revenue is forecast to drop at a compound annual rate of 1.7% over the five years through 2024, reaching €390.5 billion. This growth is almost solely attributable to a spike in revenue recorded during 2022, which followed a recovery from pandemic-induced lows during 2021 when prices and demand recovered as global economic activity rebounded. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine kicked off a period of significant disruption in energy markets, with a surge in gas prices leading to record revenue and profitability for gas manufacturers while causing substantial losses for gas suppliers. Wholesale prices have eased from record highs as European governments have reduced reliance on Russian gas. At the same time, a drop in demand for gas has also contributed to a revenue contraction since the height of the energy crisis. Revenue is set to decline by 5.4% in 2024. Revenue is forecast to increase at a compound annual rate of 1% to €410.7 billion over the five years through 2029. European markets are set to pursue a green revolution in the coming years, with investment in renewable energy sources gathering pace as European governments strive towards emissions reduction targets. Investment in green alternatives to natural gas is likely to lead to a fall in demand, with plans set out by the European Commission to at least triple solar thermal capacity by 2030, displacing the consumption of nine billion cubic metres of gas annually. Gas prices are forecast to continue to rise until 2025, as Europe diversifies its gas supplies, before falling rapidly as renewable generation capacity rises.

Gasoline prices increased worldwide in the first half of 2022, a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the tightening of fossil fuels market. In Latin America, Panama reported the largest impact, with the average price per liter increasing by 65 percent between January and June 2022. Ecuador and Colombia were the only two countries displayed which registered a decline in prices. However in 2023 the average price per liter has remained relatively stable. An opposite trend was observed in 2020, when gasoline prices decreased in Latin American countries because of the travelling restrictions brought in by the COVID-19 pandemic.

At 3.82 U.S. dollars per gallon in October 2022, regular all formulation retail gasoline prices in the United States were considerably lower than in Hong Kong or the Central African Republic, which reported the highest gasoline prices in the world at the end of October 2022. Norway also ranked high this year. Its high gasoline prices might be one of the reasons why the country is leading the charge towards electric mobility. Gas prices in selected countries worldwide Fuel prices in different countries range from a few cents to almost two U.S. dollars per liter. Gasoline is often regarded as a key driver of a country’s economy, as it is the main fuel used in passenger vehicles and the automotive fleets of small and large businesses. The United States is one of the biggest consumers of gasoline on a per capita basis, with approximately 356 gallons of gasoline per person in 2020. Fuel prices respond to crude oil price changes One of the liquid’s main ingredients is crude oil. The spot prices of publicly traded crudes, such as U.S.-sourced WTI (West Texas Intermediate), UK Brent, and the OPEC basket grades, are highly volatile and have proven prone to inflation as of late, most recently due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China, blockages in the Suez Canal, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Where access to oil is limited, this volatility may spur a shift towards alternative propulsion systems and fuels among a growing number of vehicle drivers. Affordability of fuel Gas prices in Europe are counted among the highest worldwide. At 7.6 U.S. dollars per gallon or more, gasoline is particularly expensive in Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Greece, Finland, and the Netherlands. Car drivers in Mozambique and Madagascar feel the most pain at the pump. Some 145.7 percent of a month's wages are needed to fill up a tank in Mozambique. The low affordability of fuel is due to weak currencies, limited wage growth, and a level of prosperity that is yet to meet other markets' standards. The high price in countries such as the Netherlands and Norway is largely attributable to taxes. Other factors driving gas prices include local demand, processing and distribution costs, and the aforementioned level of crude oil prices.

Europe’s petroleum and natural gas extraction support services’ revenue is forecast to contract at a compound annual rate of 3.8% over the five years through 2024 to €62.1 billion. Widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic weighed heavily on extraction and exploration activity in downstream oil and gas markets as poor demand conditions caused prices to plummet, disincentivising new investment and causing support service contractors to offer price concessions to customers, compounding the industry’s weak revenue performance and weighing on profitability. Demand has increased since lockdown restrictions eased, supporting revenue over 2021 and 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to significant price increases in both oil and gas due to supply uncertainties. This also led to Norway becoming Europe’s largest natural gas supplier in 2022, supporting revenue opportunities for Norwegian contractors. Norway has also increased the level of investment into new oil and gas fields to alleviate uncertainties regarding supply following trade restrictions placed on Russian oil and gas. Nonetheless, weakening demand and falling oil and gas prices have contributed to an expected revenue slump of 20.3% in 2024. Over the five years through 2029, revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 7% to €87.2 billion. New investments into oil and gas fields will provide contractors with new revenue opportunities, supporting revenue growth and expanding profitability. However, ongoing efforts across Europe to meet environmental and emissions targets, like net zero by 2050, will continue to threaten demand for oil and gas, somewhat limiting revenue growth.

European Union (EU) countries imported no natural gas via the pipeline Nord Stream (also known as Nord Stream 1) from Russia to Germany from the week 36, 2022, to the week 36, 2023, or from September 5, 2022, to September 10, 2023. In the week 35, 2022, the volume amounted to 62 million cubic meters, which was nearly 20 times lower than the figure recorded in the week 21, 2022, or from May 23 to May 29, 2022.

Nord Stream 1 shutdown At the beginning of September 2022, the Russian energy company Gazprom, which holds the monopoly on the country's gas export market and operates Nord Stream, announced a shutdown of the pipeline for an indefinite time period allegedly due to a gas leak and required maintenance. The shutdown was expected to lead to a rise in gas prices, which have already seen a significant increase due to the war in Ukraine. The pipeline is one of the major gas import routes to the EU. In the first three months of 2022, over 60 percent of pipeline gas imports into the EU came via Nord Stream.

Key facts about Nord Stream 1 Nord Stream was put into operation in 2011 and 2012. The annual capacity of the 1,224-kilometer-long pipeline stands at 55 billion cubic meters. However, between 2018 and 2021, the volume of gas transported via the pipeline exceeded this figure. In 2021, it amounted to over 59 billion cubic meters. A twin pipeline Nord Stream 2 has been constructed in 2021, but its certification process was halted by the German government in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Significant leaks in Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 were discovered on September 27, 2022.