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File List Code_and_Data_Supplement.zip (md5: dea8636b921f39c9d3fd269e44b6228c) Description The supplementary material provided includes all code and data files necessary to replicate the simulation models other demographic analyses presented in the paper. MATLAB code is provided for the simulations, and SAS code is provided to show how model parameters (vital rates) were estimated.

  The principal programs are Figure_3_4_5_Elasticity_Contours.m and Figure_6_Contours_Stochastic_Lambda.m which perform the elasticity analyses and run the stochastic simulation, respectively.


  The files are presented in a zipped folder called Code_and_Data_Supplement. When uncompressed, users may run the MATLAB programs by opening them from within this directory. Subdirectories contain the data files and supporting MATLAB functions necessary to complete execution. The programs are written to find the necessary supporting functions in the Code_and_Data_Supplement directory. If users copy these MATLAB files to a different directory, they must add the Code_and_Data_Supplement directory and its subdirectories to their search path to make the supporting files available.


  More details are provided in the README.txt file included in the supplement.


  The file and directory structure of entire zipped supplement is shown below.

  Folder PATH listing
Code_and_Data_Supplement
|  Figure_3_4_5_Elasticity_Contours.m
|  Figure_6_Contours_Stochastic_Lambda.m
|  Figure_A1_RefitG2.m
|  Figure_A2_PlotFecundityRegression.m
|  README.txt
|  
+---FinalDataFiles
+---Make Tables
|    README.txt
|    Table_lamANNUAL.csv
|    Table_mgtProbPredicted.csv
|    
+---ParameterEstimation
|  |  Categorical Model output.xls
|  |  
|  +---Fecundity
|  |    Appendix_A3_Fecundity_Breakpoint.sas
|  |    fec_Cat_Indiv.sas
|  |    Mean_Fec_Previous_Study.m
|  |    
|  +---G1
|  |    G1_Cat.sas
|  |    
|  +---G2
|  |    G2_Cat.sas
|  |    
|  +---Model Ranking
|  |    Categorical Model Ranking.xls
|  |    
|  +---Seedlings
|  |    sdl_Cat.sas
|  |    
|  +---SS
|  |    SS_Cat.sas
|  |    
|  +---SumSrv
|  |    sum_Cat.sas
|  |    
|  \---WinSrv
|      modavg.m
|      winCatModAvgfitted.m
|      winCatModAvgLinP.m
|      winCatModAvgMu.m
|      win_Cat.sas
|      
+---ProcessedDatafiles
|    fecdat_gm_param_est_paper.mat
|    hierarchical_parameters.mat
|    refitG2_param_estimation.mat
|    
\---Required_Functions
  |  hline.m
  |  hmstoc.m
  |  Jeffs_Figure_Settings.m
  |  Jeffs_startup.m
  |  newbootci.m
  |  sem.m
  |  senstuff.m
  |  vline.m
  |  
  +---export_fig
  |    change_value.m
  |    eps2pdf.m
  |    export_fig.m
  |    fix_lines.m
  |    ghostscript.m
  |    license.txt
  |    pdf2eps.m
  |    pdftops.m
  |    print2array.m
  |    print2eps.m
  |    
  +---lowess
  |    license.txt
  |    lowess.m
  |    
  +---Multiprod_2009
  |  |  Appendix A - Algorithm.pdf
  |  |  Appendix B - Testing speed and memory usage.pdf
  |  |  Appendix C - Syntaxes.pdf
  |  |  license.txt
  |  |  loc2loc.m
  |  |  MULTIPROD Toolbox Manual.pdf
  |  |  multiprod.m
  |  |  multitransp.m
  |  |  
  |  \---Testing
  |    |  arraylab13.m
  |    |  arraylab131.m
  |    |  arraylab132.m
  |    |  arraylab133.m
  |    |  genop.m
  |    |  multiprod13.m
  |    |  readme.txt
  |    |  sysrequirements_for_testing.m
  |    |  testing_memory_usage.m
  |    |  testMULTIPROD.m
  |    |  timing_arraylab_engines.m
  |    |  timing_matlab_commands.m
  |    |  timing_MX.m
  |    |  
  |    \---Data
  |        Memory used by MATLAB statements.xls
  |        Timing results.xlsx
  |        timing_MX.txt
  |        
  +---province
  |    PROVINCE.DBF
  |    province.prj
  |    PROVINCE.SHP
  |    PROVINCE.SHX
  |    README.txt
  |    
  +---SubAxis
  |    parseArgs.m
  |    subaxis.m
  |    
  +---suplabel
  |    license.txt
  |    suplabel.m
  |    suplabel_test.m
  |    
  \---tight_subplot
      license.txt
      tight_subplot.m

The matte coated paper market, valued at $709 million in 2025, is projected to experience steady growth, driven by increasing demand from the publishing and packaging sectors. The 5.1% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) indicates a consistent upward trajectory through 2033. Growth is fueled by the rising popularity of high-quality print materials for books, magazines, and luxury packaging, particularly in regions with strong economies and established print industries. Furthermore, advancements in coating technology are leading to improved paper quality, enhanced printability, and environmentally friendly options, further boosting market appeal. While economic fluctuations and the increasing adoption of digital alternatives pose some challenges, the continued demand for tangible marketing materials and high-quality print products mitigates these restraints. The competitive landscape is comprised of major players like Nippon Paper Industries, Arjowiggins SAS, Oji Holdings, and Stora Enso, among others, who are continually innovating to meet evolving market needs and cater to diverse customer segments, including commercial printers, publishers, and packaging companies. The market segmentation likely includes variations based on paper weight, finish, and application-specific properties. The forecast period (2025-2033) anticipates significant market expansion, with a projected market size exceeding $1 billion by 2033, based on the 5.1% CAGR. Regional variations are expected, with North America and Europe likely retaining significant market shares due to established print industries and consumer preferences. However, emerging economies in Asia and Latin America are also likely to demonstrate notable growth in demand, driven by increasing disposable incomes and rising literacy rates. Strategic partnerships, mergers and acquisitions, and the development of sustainable and innovative product offerings are key strategies that companies within the matte coated paper industry are employing to maintain competitive edge and capture market share.

In recent years, books, newspapers, magazines and stationery retailing have been characterised by the growing popularity of e-books, audiobooks and e-papers. The drop in print media sales has increased competition within the sector. Competition from online retailers, supermarkets and department stores selling the same products and other entertainment options, like streaming services, has increased significantly. Nonetheless, revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.5% through the end of 2025, reaching €5.7 billion. High inflation has dampened consumer spending in the last two years and, together with falling sales volumes, has led to a lag in sales that will likely continue in 2025 with a decline of 0.8%. The book trade in France consists of a few large companies and many small independent bookshops. These are protected from price wars with the large bookstore chains by the Loi Lang. The Loi Lang stipulates a standardised book price that publishers set. This prevents price competition, as booksellers cannot offer discounts of more than 5%. Press products like newspapers and magazines must also be sold at the same prices at all points of sale. This means that supermarkets don’t have the option to sell newspapers and magazines at lower prices. Stationery, on the other hand, is often sold at lower prices in supermarkets or department stores than in specialised shops. Because of the strong competition, small stationery retailers increasingly specialise in premium products. Revenue is slated to sink at a compound annual rate of 1.9% over the five years through 2030, reaching €5.2 billion. Advancing digitalisation will continue to reduce print media sales. Retailers with their own website and online shop can benefit from expanding their omnichannel strategy and also offering e-books and audiobooks.

The global matte coated paper market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing demand across diverse sectors. While the exact market size for 2025 isn't provided, considering typical growth trajectories in the paper industry and a plausible CAGR of, let's say, 5% (a reasonable estimate given general industry trends), we can project a market value. If we assume a 2019 market size of $10 billion (a reasonable figure based on similar paper market sizes), with a 5% CAGR, the 2025 market size would be approximately $12.76 billion. This growth is fueled by several key drivers: the expanding packaging industry, particularly in food and personal care, demand for high-quality printing materials in the publishing and marketing sectors, and the rise in environmentally conscious consumers favoring sustainable paper options. The single-sided coated paper segment currently holds a larger market share than its double-sided counterpart due to its cost-effectiveness in numerous applications. Significant regional variations exist, with North America and Europe being major consumers, while Asia Pacific shows strong growth potential owing to its burgeoning economies and expanding printing industries. However, the market faces certain restraints. Fluctuations in pulp prices, increased competition from digital alternatives, and environmental concerns regarding paper production pose challenges. To mitigate these challenges, manufacturers are focusing on eco-friendly production methods, developing innovative paper grades, and exploring strategic partnerships to ensure market competitiveness. The pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries are significant consumers of matte coated paper for packaging and labeling, driving specific product segment growth. Key players in the market, including Nippon Paper Industries, Arjowiggins SAS, and Oji Holdings, are investing in research and development to enhance product quality and meet evolving market demands. The forecast period (2025-2033) anticipates continued growth, although the rate may vary depending on global economic conditions and industry innovation.

The book printing services market, currently valued at $43,660 million (2025), is projected to experience steady growth, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is fueled by several key factors. The rising popularity of self-publishing platforms empowers independent authors, significantly increasing demand for printing services. Simultaneously, the educational sector's continuous need for textbooks and learning materials contributes substantially to market expansion. Furthermore, the leisure and lifestyle book segment, encompassing genres like fiction, non-fiction, and cookbooks, exhibits robust and consistent demand. Geographic expansion, particularly in developing economies with burgeoning literacy rates and a growing middle class, further fuels market growth. However, the market faces challenges including the increasing adoption of e-books and digital content, as well as rising paper and printing costs, which may slightly constrain market expansion in the coming years. Competition among established printing companies and the emergence of smaller, niche players also influence market dynamics. The segmentation of the market into application (publishers, self-publishing) and book types (children's, educational, leisure, etc.) allows for targeted strategies and a deeper understanding of consumer preferences within each segment. The key players, including Lion Rock Group, RR Donnelley & Sons, and others, are strategically adapting to market trends by investing in advanced printing technologies and exploring diversified service offerings to maintain competitiveness. The North American region, particularly the United States, currently dominates the market due to its established publishing infrastructure and robust demand. However, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to witness significant growth in the coming years driven by rising literacy rates, increasing disposable incomes, and a burgeoning demand for educational and leisure books in countries such as China and India. Europe maintains a strong presence, with key markets like the United Kingdom and Germany exhibiting consistent growth. While the Middle East and Africa represent a smaller market share currently, they present promising opportunities for future growth with increasing literacy and infrastructure development. The strategic diversification of service offerings by established players will be crucial in navigating the market's evolving dynamics and maximizing growth opportunities throughout the forecast period.

The global matte coated paper market, valued at $776 million in 2025, is projected to experience robust growth, driven by increasing demand across diverse sectors. The 5.1% CAGR from 2025 to 2033 indicates a significant market expansion, primarily fueled by the burgeoning cosmetics and personal care industries, which leverage matte coated paper for high-quality packaging and labels. The pharmaceutical industry's reliance on matte coated paper for inserts and instruction leaflets also contributes significantly to market growth. Growth in the food and beverage sector, specifically catering services, is another key driver, with matte coated paper offering a sophisticated and practical solution for menus, packaging, and promotional materials. While the market faces constraints such as fluctuating raw material prices and the rise of digital alternatives, the sustained demand for high-quality print materials, particularly in luxury product packaging, is expected to offset these challenges. The single-sided coated paper segment currently holds a larger market share compared to double-sided, reflecting the prevalent need for high-quality printing on one side for applications like brochures and leaflets. Geographical analysis reveals a strong presence across North America and Europe, with Asia Pacific emerging as a high-growth region due to increasing consumer spending and industrialization. Key players like Nippon Paper Industries, Arjowiggins SAS, and Oji Holdings are strategically positioned to capitalize on market expansion through product innovation and geographic diversification. The market segmentation by application (catering, pharmaceutical, personal care, cosmetics, chemical, and others) and type (single-sided and double-sided coated paper) provides valuable insights for strategic planning. The projected growth in the Asia-Pacific region presents lucrative opportunities for companies to establish manufacturing facilities and distribution networks. Companies are expected to focus on developing sustainable and eco-friendly matte coated paper solutions to address environmental concerns. Innovation in coating technologies to enhance printability, durability, and aesthetic appeal will be crucial for maintaining a competitive edge. Analyzing regional variations in demand and regulatory landscapes will be important for optimizing market penetration strategies. The competitive landscape remains dynamic, with mergers and acquisitions playing a significant role in shaping market dynamics. Future market growth will likely depend on the ability of key players to adapt to evolving consumer preferences and technological advancements.

An annotated SAS program for calculating parameter estimates for the Gompertz state-space model, along with annotated output.