In 2021 the total fertility rate in Scotland was ****, compared with **** in the previous year, which was the lowest it has been in this provided time period. From 2002 onwards the total fertility rate in Scotland increased from **** to a peak of **** in 2008. Since 2008 the total fertility rate in Scotland has fallen rapidly, with only a slight increase occurring between 2013 and 2014.

In 2021, the birth rate per 1,000 population in Scotland was ***, compared with *** in the previous year. Between 1999 and 2002 the birth rate in Scotland fell from **** to ****, followed by a brief period of increasing birth rates between 2002 and 2008 before starting to decline afterward.

In 2021 the live birth rate of the United Kingdom fell to 10.4 births per 1,000 population, the lowest it had been during this time period. The UK's birth rate has been declining steadily since 2010 when the birth rate was 12.9 births per 1,000 population. After 1938, the year with the highest birth rate in the UK was 1947, when the crude birth rate was 21.2 births per 1,000 population. Under two children per mother in 2021 The most recent crude live birth rate for this statistic is based on the 694,685 births, that occurred in 2021 as well as the mid-year population estimate of 67 million for the United Kingdom. It has a close relation to the fertility rate which estimates the average number of children women are expected to have in their lifetime, which was 1.53 in this reporting year. Among the constituent countries of the UK, Northern Ireland had the highest birth rate at 11.6, followed by England at 10.5, Wales at 9.3, and Scotland at 8.7. International comparisons The UK is not alone in seeing its birth and fertility rates decline dramatically in recent decades. Across the globe, fertility rates have fallen noticeably since the 1960s, with the fertility rate for Asia, Europe, and the Americas being below two in 2021. As of this year, the global fertility rate was 2.31, and was by far the highest in Africa, which had a fertility rate of 4.12, although this too has fallen from a high of 6.72 in the late 1960s. A reduction in infant mortality, as well as better access to contraception, are factors that have typically influenced declining fertility rates recently.

High fertility variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.

The fertility rate of a country is the average number of children that women from that country would have throughout their reproductive years. In the United Kingdom in 1800, the average woman of childbearing age would have five children over the course of their lifetime. Over the next 35 years the fertility rate was quite sporadic, rising to over 5.5 in the 1810s and 1820s, then dropping to 4.9 by 1835. This was during and after the Napoleonic Wars and the War of 1812 with the US, which was a time of increased industrialization, economic depression and high unemployment after the war. As things became more stable, and the 'Pax Britannica' (a period of relative, international peace and economic prosperity for the British Empire) came into full effect, the fertility rate plateaued until 1880, before dropping gradually until the First World War. The fertility rate then jumped from 2.6 to 3.1 children per woman between 1915 and 1920, as many men returned from the war. It then resumed it's previous trajectory in the interwar years, before increasing yet again after the war (albeit, for a much longer time than after WWI), in what is known as the 'Baby Boom'. Like the US, the Baby Boom lasted until around 1980, where it then fell to 1.7 children per woman, and it has remained around this number (between 1.66 and 1.87) since then.

Routine provisional data on births, marriages and deaths based on civil registrations.

Source agency: National Records of Scotland

Designation: National Statistics

Language: English

Alternative title: BMD

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the population of Scotland by gender across 18 age groups. It lists the male and female population in each age group along with the gender ratio for Scotland. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population distribution of Scotland by gender and age. For example, using this dataset, we can identify the largest age group for both Men and Women in Scotland. Additionally, it can be used to see how the gender ratio changes from birth to senior most age group and male to female ratio across each age group for Scotland.

Key observations

Largest age group (population): Male # 15-19 years (36) | Female # 85+ years (50). Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates.

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates.

Age groups:

• Under 5 years
• 5 to 9 years
• 10 to 14 years
• 15 to 19 years
• 20 to 24 years
• 25 to 29 years
• 30 to 34 years
• 35 to 39 years
• 40 to 44 years
• 45 to 49 years
• 50 to 54 years
• 55 to 59 years
• 60 to 64 years
• 65 to 69 years
• 70 to 74 years
• 75 to 79 years
• 80 to 84 years
• 85 years and over

Scope of gender :

Please note that American Community Survey asks a question about the respondents current sex, but not about gender, sexual orientation, or sex at birth. The question is intended to capture data for biological sex, not gender. Respondents are supposed to respond with the answer as either of Male or Female. Our research and this dataset mirrors the data reported as Male and Female for gender distribution analysis.

Variables / Data Columns

• Age Group: This column displays the age group for the Scotland population analysis. Total expected values are 18 and are define above in the age groups section.
• Population (Male): The male population in the Scotland is shown in the following column.
• Population (Female): The female population in the Scotland is shown in the following column.
• Gender Ratio: Also known as the sex ratio, this column displays the number of males per 100 females in Scotland for each age group.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for Scotland Population by Gender. You can refer the same here

This dataset contains a variety of demographic measures (related to fertility, marriage, mortality and migration), plus a range of socio-economic indicators (related to households, age structure, and social class) for the 2000+ Registration Sub Districts (RSDs) in England and Wales for each census year between 1851 and 1911, and for the 600+ Registration Districts of Scotland 1851-1901. The measures have mainly been derived from the computerised individual level census enumerators' books (and household schedules for 1911) enhanced under the I-CeM project. I-CeM does not currently include data for England and Wales 1871, although the project has been able to access a version of the data for that year it does not contain information necessary to calculate many of the variables presented here. Scotland 1911 is also not available. Users should therefore beware that 1871 does not contain data for many of the variables. Additional data has been derived from the tables summarising numbers of births and deaths by year and areas, which were published by the Registrar General of England and Wales in his quarterly, annual and decennial reports of births, deaths and marriages. Data from the decennial reports was obtained from Woods (SN 3552) and we transcribed data from the quarterly and annual reports ourselves. Counts of births and deaths for Scottish Registration Districts were obtained from the Digitising Scotland project at the University of Edinburgh. The dataset builds on SN 8613 and SN 853547 which provide data for a more limited set of variables and for England and Wales only (the same dataset also has two UKDS SN numbers as it was re-routed by UKDS during the deposit process).

This project will present the first historic population geography of Great Britain during the late nineteenth century. This was a period of unprecedented demographic change, when both mortality and fertility started the dramatic secular declines of the first demographic transition. National trends are well established: mortality decline started in childhood and early adulthood, with infant mortality lagging behind, particularly in urban-industrial areas. The fall in fertility was led by the middle classes but quickly spread throughout society. Urban growth was fuelled by movement from the countryside to the city, but there was also considerable migration overseas, particularly from Scotland, although to some extent outmigration was offset by immigration. There was local and regional variation in these patterns, and a contrast between the demographic experiences of Scotland and of England and Wales. Marriage was later in Scotland but fertility within marriage higher, and the improvement in Scottish mortality was slower than that south of the border. However, while there has been research on local and regional patterns within each country, these have mainly been pursued separately, and it is therefore unclear whether there were real national differences or whether there were local demographic continuities across borders, and if so whether they followed economic, occupational, cultural or even linguistic lines. Understanding population processes involves a holistic appreciation of the interaction between the basic demographic components of fertility, mortality, nuptiality and migration, and how they come together, interacting with economic and cultural processes, to create a specific demographic system via the spread of people and ideas. This project is the first to consider a historical population geography of the whole of Great Britain across the first demographic transition, drawing together measures of nuptiality, fertility, mortality and migration for small geographic areas and unpacking how they interacted to produce the more readily available broad-brush national patterns for Scotland and for England and Wales.

We will build on our immensely successful project on the fertility of Victorian England and Wales, which used complete count census data for England and Wales to calculate more detailed fertility measures than ever previously possible for some 2000 small geographic areas and 8 social groups, allowing the investigation of intra-urban as well as urban-rural differences in fertility. The new measures allowed us to examine age patterns of fertility across the two countries for the first time. We were also able to calculate contextual variables from the census data which allowed us to undertake spatial analysis of the influences on fertility over time. As well as academic papers, our previous project presented summary data at a fine spatial resolution in an interactive online atlas, populationspast.org, a major new resource which is already being widely used as a teaching tool in both schools and universities.

In this new project we will calculate comparable measures of fertility and contextual variables using the full count census data for Scotland, 1851 to 1901 inclusive, to complement those for England and Wales. However, our new project will go considerably further and will integrate place-specific measures of mortality and migration, for both Scotland and for England and Wales. We will provide new age-specific data on fertility, mortality and migration for the whole of Great Britain using existing datasets, at a finer geographic level than has previously been possible, and will analyse these spatially and temporally to gain a panoramic understanding of the forces driving this crucial period of demographic and social change. We will expand populationspast.org to bring our new findings to a wide academic and non-academic audience and will provide the data for others to explore interactively.

There were almost 695,000 live births recorded in the United Kingdom in 2021, compared with almost 682,000 in the previous year. Between 1887 and 2021, the year with the highest number of live births was 1920, when there were approximately 1.13 million births, while the year with the fewest births was 1977, when there were approximately 657,000 births. Birth rate falls to a historic low in 2020 At 10.2 births per 1,000 people, the birth rate of the United Kingdom in 2020 was at a historic low. After witnessing a twenty-first century high of 12.9 in 2010, the birth rate gradually declined before a sharp decrease was recorded between 2012 and 2013. Although there was a slight uptick in the birth rate in 2021, when there were 10.4 births per 1,000 people, the total fertility rate reached a low of 1.53 births per woman in the same year. As well as falling birth and fertility rates, the average age of mothers has been increasing. In 1991, the average age of mothers at childbirth was 27.7 years, compared with 30.9 years in 2021. UK population reaches 68 million In 2023, the overall population of the United Kingdom reached almost 68.3 million people. Of the four countries that comprise the UK, England has by far the highest population, at 57.7 million, compared with almost 5.5 million in Scotland, 3.2 million in Wales, and 1.9 million in Northern Ireland. These countries are far less densely populated than England, especially when compared to London, which had approximately 5,630 people per square kilometer, compared with just 70 in Scotland. After London, North West England was the second-most densely populated area of the UK, which includes the large metropolitan areas of the cities of Manchester, and Liverpool

Dataset population: Persons

Age

Age is derived from the date of birth question and is a person's age at their last birthday, at 27 March 2011. Dates of birth that imply an age over 115 are treated as invalid and the person's age is imputed. Infants less than one year old are classified as 0 years of age.

Country of birth

Country of birth is the country in which a person was born. This topic records whether the person was born in or if they were not born in a country.

Replacement fertility variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.

The population of Scotland is projected to continue increasing until around mid-2028, peaking at 5.48 million. It is then projected to fall by 1.8% to 5.39 million by 2045. These projections are lower than the previous (2018-based) projections. The difference is mainly due to lower fertility rates. These are the first projections for a number of years to show Scotland’s population falling in the next decade. The previous projections suggested that the population could stall and then begin to fall after around 25 years. The population of the UK as a whole is projected to grow by 5.8% to mid-2045. These latest projections for Scotland and the UK are both lower than previous projections. Scotland is the only UK country where the population is projected to fall during the next 25 years. If these projections were realised, Scotland’s share of the UK population would fall from 8.1% in mid-2020 to 7.6% by mid-2045. Scotland’s population is projected to age. The number of people aged 65 and over is projected to grow by nearly a third by mid-2045. The number of children is projected to fall by over a fifth. The working age population is projected to remain fairly stable. As now, more people are projected to move to Scotland than leave each year. There are more deaths than births each year, and the gap between births and deaths is projected to widen. Over time, this will outweigh the growth from migration.

National Records of Scotland Guidance;What is ‘period’ life expectancyAll of the estimates presented in this report are ‘period’ life expectancy. They are calculated assuming that mortality rates for each age group in the time period (here 2021-2023) are constant throughout a person’s life. Period life expectancy is often described as how long a baby born now could expect to live if they experienced today’s mortality rates throughout their lifetime. It is very unlikely that this would be the case as it means that future changes in things such as medicine and legislation are not taken into consideration.Period life expectancy is not an accurate prediction of how long a person born today will actually live, but it is a useful measure of population health at a point in time and is most useful for comparing trends over time, between areas of a country and with other countries.How national life expectancy is calculatedThe latest life expectancy figures are calculated from the mid-year population estimates for Scotland and the number of deaths registered in Scotland during 2021, 2022, and 2023. Life expectancy for Scotland is calculated for each year of age and represents the average number of years that someone of that age could expect to live if death rates for each age group remained constant over their lifetime. Life expectancy in Scotland is calculated as a three-year average, produced by combining deaths and population data for the three-year period. Three years of data are needed to provide large enough numbers to make these figures accurate and lessen the effect of very ‘good’ or ‘bad’ years. Throughout this publication, the latest life expectancy figures refer to 2021-2023 period. How sub-national life expectancy is calculatedWe calculate life expectancy for areas within Scotland using a very similar method to the national figures but with a few key differences. Firstly, we use age groups rather than single year of age. This is to increase the population size of each age group to reduce fluctuations and ensure accurate calculation of mortality rates. Secondly, we use a maximum age group of 90+ whereas the national figures are calculated up to age 100. These are known as ‘abridged life tables.’ Because these methods produce slightly different figures, we also calculate a Scotland figure using the abridged method to allow for accurate comparisons between local areas for example. This Scotland figure is only for comparison and does not replace the headline national figure. You can read more information about the methods in this publication in our methodology guide on the NRS website. Uses of life expectancyLife expectancy at birth is a very useful indicator of mortality conditions across a population at a particular point in time. It also provides an objective means of comparing trends in mortality over time, between areas of a country and with other countries. This is used to monitor and investigate health inequalities and to set public health targets. Life expectancy is also used to inform pensions policy, research and teaching.

Born in Scotland is an ongoing observational longitudinal study set to capture a contemporary and representative cohort of mothers in Scotland and provide a valuable research resource to assess current clinical issues and health disparities and investigate the drivers of long-term maternal and child wellbeing. The current pilot study is open to recruitment and is testing consent models. The scale-up study intends to include 100,000 pregnant women and their children, constituting a diverse, flexible, and nationally representative maternity cohort. It is embedded within the NHS services, capitalising on capturing routinely collected data and biological samples, and allowing linkage to additional clinical and demographic data through the unique Community Health Index (CHI) number.

The pilot study currently targets all women aged 18-50 years old, living in Edinburgh and the Lothians and the Borders, and who are planning to give birth in Scotland, offering recruitment during any of the routine antenatal booking appointments. Data from the participants is extracted from the electronic maternity records, neonatal units, and clinical and diagnostic results. Biological samples are retrieved from hospital laboratories using samples that would otherwise be discarded after clinical use or collected at birth. The aim is to use the cohort to link to future maternal and child health and social care records to address key research questions to improve maternal and child health in Scotland.

Growing Up in Scotland tracks the lives of thousands of young people and their families from the early years, through childhood, and now as they move into adulthood. The comprises three cohorts of children: one child cohort and two birth cohorts. Growing Up in Scotland: Birth Cohort 1 contains over 5,000 children born between June 2004 and May 2005. Data was collected annually from their families between the ages of 10 months and just under 6 years, then every 2 years until the children were aged 14 and mostly in their third year of secondary school.

This dataset provides Census 2022 estimates for the Country of Birth by Individuals in Scotland.

Country of birth

Country of birth is the country in which a person was born. Users should be mindful of changes in EU members and accession states between 2011 and 2022. This will affect the number of countries which make up certain categories when comparing the results between censuses.

Details of classification can be found here

The quality assurance report can be found here

Among the nations of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland had the highest number of live births per 1,000 in 2021, at 11.6, followed by England at 10.5, Wales at 9.3, and Scotland at 8.7. The crude birth rate has fallen for all nations of the UK when compared with 1971, while Northern Ireland has consistently had the highest number of live births per 1,000 people. Long-term birth trends After reaching a postwar peak of 18.8 births per 1,000 people, the UK's crude birth rate has declined considerably, falling to a low of just eleven births per 1,000 people in 2020. In that year, there were just 681,560 live births, compared with over one million in 1964. Additionally, the average age of mothers at childbirth in the UK has been steadily increasing since the mid-1970s. In 1975, for example, the average age at which mothers gave birth was 26.4 years, compared with 30.9 in 2021. Millennials overtake Boomers as the largest generation Due to the large number of births that happened in the years following the Second World War, the generation born during this time were called Baby Boomers, and until 2020 were the largest generation in the UK. Since that year, the Millennial generation, born between 1981 and 1996, has been the largest generational cohort. In 2023, there were almost 14.7 million Millennials, just over 14 million Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980), and around 13.6 million Baby Boomers. Generation Z, the generation immediately after Millennials, numbered approximately 13.2 million in this year.

Low fertility variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.

The non-British population of Scotland was 397,000 (7.4%) in the year to mid-2021. The non-UK born population was 523,000 (9.7%). Numbers of non-British nationals and non-UK born people remained broadly stable compared to the previous year. Of all non-British nationals living in Scotland, 231,000 (58%) were EU nationals and 165,000 (42%) were non-EU nationals. Of all non-UK born people living in Scotland, 258,000 (49%) were born in the EU and 265,000 (51%) were born outside the EU. Polish was the most common non-British nationality, and Poland was the most common non-UK country of birth in Scotland.