The house price index (HPI) shows changes in the value of residential properties in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. With the HPI set at a base of 100 in January 2015, a value of over 100 would mark an increase in the average dwelling price. A value of under 100 points, on the other hand, would indicate that the average price has dropped. House price index in the UK The HPI fluctuated in 2023, after peaking in November 2022. In December 2023, the index stood at 149 index points, which was a slight decline from December 2022. This trend in the index, and therefore the value of UK residential properties, has also been observed by the Halifax house price index. Average house prices Average house prices are affected by several factors. Economic growth, unemployment, interest rates and mortgage availability can all drive them up or down. A shortage of supply means that the need for housing and the competitive market created will push house prices up. An excess of housing, on the other hand, means prices fall to stimulate buyers.

According to the forecast, the North East and Wales are the regions in the United Kingdom estimated to see the highest overall growth in house prices over the five-year period between 2024 and 2028. Just behind are North West, Yorkshire & the Humber, and Scotland, which are forecast to see house prices increase by 20.2 percent over the five-year period. In London, house prices are expected to rise by 13.9 percent.

Transaction activity in the residential market in Scotland declined after a record year in 2021. In 2023, there were 93,090 housing transactions, down from about 114,000 in 2021. This includes all residential property transactions with a value of 40,000 British pounds and above. One of the many reasons for the decline was the rapid house price increase in 2021, as well as the cost of living crisis, and the higher mortgage rates.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of house sales in the UK spiked, followed by a period of decline. In 2023, the housing market slowed notably, and in September 2024, transaction volumes fell below 50,000. House sales volumes are affected by a number of factors, including mortgage rates, house prices, supply, demand, as well as the overall health of the market. The economic uncertainty and rising unemployment rates has also affected the homebuyer sentiment of Brits. How have UK house prices developed over the past 10 years? House prices in the UK have increased year-on-year since 2015, except for a brief period of decline in the second half of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. That is based on the 12-month percentage change of the UK house price index. At the peak of the housing boom in 2022, prices soared by nearly 14 percent. The decline that followed was mild, at under three percent. The cooling in the market was more pronounced in England and Wales, where the average house price declined in 2023. Conversely, growth in Scotland and Northern Ireland continued. What is the impact of mortgage rates on house sales? For a long period, mortgage rates were at record-low, allowing prospective homebuyers to take out a 10-year loan at a mortgage rate of less than three percent. In the last quarter of 2021, this period came to an end as the Bank of England rose the bank lending rate to contain the spike in inflation. Naturally, the higher borrowing costs affected consumer sentiment, urging many homebuyers to place their plans on hold and leading to a drop in sales.

The statistic shows the concerns over housing matters according to the adults in Scotland (UK) as of 2019, broken down by the issue. With 85 percent, the majority of respondents claimed that saving for a deposit was a very/somewhat serious problem on the Scottish housing market. Availability for first-time buyer to get on ladder was the second most often mentioned concern, with 83 percent of Scotts pointing to this issue.

Private companies were responsible for most of the new homes built in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2023. Housing completions in the UK decreased for three years in a row between 2007 and 2010. This was followed by several years of fluctuation and a gradual increase from 2013 to 2019. The number of homes completed in England remained relatively stable in 2021 and 2022, after reaching a low point in the second quarter of 2020 due to the restrictions implemented to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Construction starts and completions Comparing the number of starts and completions in London side-by-side shows that whenever there is a significant growth or fall in the number of projects started, that peak or valley tends to be reflected in the number of buildings completed a couple of years later. Nevertheless, disruptions, delays, and other obstacles may affect that correlation. Still, observing how many home construction projects started in the UK can provide some insight into the level of activity that construction companies may have in the near future. Given that the number of housing starts is forecast to fall in 2023, there might be slightly less work to be carried out the following year. Nevertheless, housing starts are expected to pick up again by 2024 and 2025. Housing associations in the UK Housing associations are not-for-profit organizations created to develop and rent homes for a lower price than in the private market. They have acquired certain relevance in the UK, although this type of organization also exists in other countries. On several occasions during the past decade, over a fifth of housing starts in London were developed by housing associations. Meanwhile, the number of new homes completed in Scotland by housing associations has increased a lot throughout the years, with several thousand units constructed every year during the past decades.