Sea levels are projected to rise in Miami under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). In 2020, there was a sea level rise of ***** centimeters under the SSP1-1.6 scenario, relative to a 1995-2014 baseline. It is expected that sea levels in Miami will rise **** meters (m) under the same scenario by***** and **** m under the SSP1-2.6 scenario by the same year. The highest projected sea level rise in Miami is under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, reaching **** m by 2150.

Sea levels are projected to rise in New York under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). In 2020, there was a sea level rise of ** centimeters under every scenario, relative to a ********* baseline. It is expected that sea levels in New York will rise under the SSP1-1.6 scenario **** meters (m) by 2150 and **** m under the SSP1-2.6 scenario by the same year. The highest projected sea level rise in New York is under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, reaching **** m by 2150.

Retirement Notice: This item is in mature support as of August 2025 and will be retired in December 2026. A new version of this item is available for your use. Esri recommends updating your maps and apps to use the new version.This is a multidimensional raster layer containing the different Sea Level Rise Projections and Scenarios for the United States. The values are in centimeters and represent the amount of sea level rise in centimeters (cm). This is a raster layer that was made from the “U.S. Sea Level Rise Projections - Grid”. The one degree gridded points were converted to one degree pixels using the point to raster tool. No interpolation was applied. Time Extent: Decadal 2020-2150 (every 10 years)Units: centimeters (cm) of Sea Level RiseCell Size: 1 degreeSource Type: StretchedPixel Type:16 Bit IntegerData Projection: GCS WGS84Extent: U.S. and TerritoriesSource: 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report Data Using the layer in ArcGIS Pro:When this layer is selected, a “Multidimensional Ribbon” appears at the menu bar along the top of ArcGIS Pro. This layer has specific exploration and analysis tools that can be used. Observe the “Variable” and “StdTime” dropdowns that expose the multidimensional “slices” of the data. Notice the 15 different variables (5 scenarios x 3 confidence intervals) and the 15 different time steps (2005 to 2150). This indicates that there are 225 different slices (15x15) available in this single layer. Using “Temporal Profile” allows exploration of the multidimensional aspects of the layer. Using the different chart options, you can compare different locations or look at all the different scenarios for a single location. Sea level rise driven by global climate change is a clear and present risk to the United States today and for the coming decades and centuries (USGCRP, 2018; Hall et al., 2019). Sea levels will continue to rise due to the ocean’s sustained response to the warming that has already occurred—even if climate change mitigation succeeds in limiting surface air temperatures in the coming decades (Fox-Kemper et al., 2021). Tens of millions of people in the United States already live in areas at risk of coastal flooding, with more moving to the coasts every year (NOAA NOS and U.S. Census Bureau, 2013). Rising sea levels and land subsidence are combining, and will continue to combine, with other coastal flood factors, such as storm surge, wave effects, rising coastal water tables, river flows, and rainfall (Figure 1.1), some of whose characteristics are also undergoing climate-related changes (USGCRP, 2017). The net result will be a dramatic increase in the exposure and vulnerability of this growing population, as well as the critical infrastructure related to transportation, water, energy, trade, military readiness, and coastal ecosystems and the supporting services they provide. Source: Mean Sea Level Dataset for "Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines" Citation: Sweet, W.V., B.D. Hamlington, R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, P.L. Barnard, D. Bekaert, W. Brooks, M. Craghan, G. Dusek, T. Frederikse, G. Garner, A.S. Genz, J.P. Krasting, E. Larour, D. Marcy, J.J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, M. Osler, M. Pendleton, D. Roman, L. Schmied, W. Veatch, K.D. White, and C. Zuzak, 2022: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf Scenario: For each of the 5 GMSL scenarios (identified by the rise amounts in meters by 2100 - 0.3 m , 0.5 m. 1.0 m, 1.5 m and 2.0 m), there is a low, medium (med) and high value, corresponding to the 17th, 50th, and 83rd percentiles. Scenarios (15 total): 0.3 - MED, 0.3 - LOW, 0.3 - HIGH, 0.5 - MED, 0.5 - LOW, 0.5 - HIGH, 1.0 - MED, 1.0 - LOW, 1.0 - HIGH, 1.5 - MED, 1.5 - LOW, 1.5 - HIGH, 2.0 - MED, 2.0 - LOW, and 2.0 - HIGH Years (15 total): 2005, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100, 2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, and 2150 Report Website: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html

This report includes updated changes in extreme events (e.g., hot days, days with heavy rainfall, heat waves) for the 2030s, 2050s and 2080s; and sea level rise projections for the 2030s, 2050s, 2080s, 2100 and 2150 for the New York City region, based on those developed for the IPCC 6th Assessment report. The sea level rise projections are based on the CMIP6 models and SSP framework, and also incorporate advances in process understanding, improved and lengthened observational records, and improved ice-sheet modeling. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) started in 2009 and was codified in Local Law 42 of 2012 with a mandate to provide an authoritative and actionable source of scientific information on future climate change and its potential impacts. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change.

Sea levels are projected to rise in Cabo San Lucas under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). In 2020, there was a sea level rise of **** centimeters under the SSP1-1.6 scenario, relative to a ********* baseline. It is expected that sea levels in Cabo will rise *** meters (m) under the same scenario by 2150 and **** m under the SSP1-2.6 scenario by the same year. The highest projected sea level rise in Cabo is under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, reaching *** m by 2150.

Sea levels are projected to rise in Marseille under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). In 2020, there was a sea level rise of ***** centimeters under the SSP1-1.6 scenario, relative to a ********* baseline. It is expected that sea levels in Marseille will rise **** meters (m) under the same scenario by 2150 and *** m under the SSP1-2.6 scenario by the same year. The highest projected sea level rise in Marseille is under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, reaching **** m by 2150.

The points in this layer represent the 1-degree gridded mean sea level rise projections in centimeters (cm) for years 2020 to 2150. Each location includes five different Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) scenarios and three different uncertainty confidence limits (percentiles). The difference in GMSL uses the year 2000 as a "baseline" (0.0m).

Global Mean Sea Level in year 2100

Scenario Name

0.3 m

Low

0.5 m

Intermediate-Low

1.0 m

Intermediate

1.5 m

Intermediate-High

2.0 m

High

The Global Mean Sea Level impacts regions differently due to issues such as vertical land movement/subsidence, regional ocean dynamics, glacier and ice sheet melt, etc.

Percentile

Name

17th

Low

50th

Medium

83rd

High

These percentiles are intended to capture uncertainty associated with extrapolating the rate of sea level rise acceleration based on historical observations for each location. There are 5 different scenarios and 3 different percentiles that provide a total of 15 different possibilities for interpreting sea level rise for a given location. You can “Filter” the data to select the most appropriate for your work. Here is how you do that:These data were obtained from the Sea Level Rise Technical Report “Data and Tools” section. The Sea Level Rise Technical Report Application Guide provides a wealth of documentation for interpreting and using the various data products from the Sea Level Rise Technical Report. This gridded layer has a companion layer of the U.S. Sea Level Rise Projections - Water Level Station. Source: Mean Sea Level Dataset for "Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines" Citation: Sweet, W.V., B.D. Hamlington, R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, P.L. Barnard, D. Bekaert, W. Brooks, M. Craghan, G. Dusek, T. Frederikse, G. Garner, A.S. Genz, J.P. Krasting, E. Larour, D. Marcy, J.J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, M. Osler, M. Pendleton, D. Roman, L. Schmied, W. Veatch, K.D. White, and C. Zuzak, 2022: Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines. NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf Scenario: For each of the 5 GMSL scenarios (identified by the rise amounts in meters by 2100 - 0.3 m , 0.5 m. 1.0 m, 1.5 m and 2.0 m), there is a low, medium (med) and high value, corresponding to the 17th, 50th, and 83rd percentiles. Scenarios (15 total): 0.3 - MED, 0.3 - LOW, 0.3 - HIGH, 0.5 - MED, 0.5 - LOW, 0.5 - HIGH, 1.0 - MED, 1.0 - LOW, 1.0 - HIGH, 1.5 - MED, 1.5 - LOW, 1.5 - HIGH, 2.0 - MED, 2.0 - LOW, and 2.0 - HIGH Years (15 total): 2005, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060, 2070, 2080, 2090, 2100, 2110, 2120, 2130, 2140, and 2150 More Info: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html

Background: In 2022, the Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force produced a Technical Report titled "Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States: Updated Mean Projections and Extreme Water Level Probabilities Along U.S. Coastlines". This report provides the most up-to-date sea level rise scenarios, available for all U.S. states and territories, out to the year 2150. It is the latest product from the Task Force, which includes the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Geological Survey, and U.S. Army Corps of Engineer, along with partners in academia. The information in the report is intended to inform coastal communities and others about current and future sea level rise to help contextualize its effects for decision making purposes.

The U.S. Sea Level Change website builds upon this report and improves access to the information found within the report. The site provides federally-supported data visualizations coupled with explanations and science education to help communities prepare for challenges that will affect our coastal environments. By showing how sea levels are changing regionally, the site provides a foundation to inform decision making related to coastal planning, resource management, and emergency operations. This spreadsheet contains the data found in the National Sea Level Explorer. The National Sea Level Explorer provides data at the regional, state and tide-gauge level. Regional and state averages are created by combining data from the tide gauges and gridded values found within the boundaries of those regions and states.

Sea levels are projected to rise in Buenos Aires under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). In 2020, there was a sea level rise of **** centimeters under the SSP1-1.6 scenario, relative to a ********* baseline. It is expected that sea levels in Buenos Aires will rise **** meters (m) under the same scenario by 2150 and **** m under the SSP1-2.6 scenario by the same year. The highest projected sea level rise in Buenos Aires is under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, reaching **** m by 2150.

Purpose:The coastal inundation hazard layers map describes the areas exposed to extreme water levels caused by storm tides, wave setup and sea-level rise under the following scenarios (where AEP is the Annual Exceedance Probability or the chance of occurring each year, ARI is the Average Recurrence Interval):20% AEP (5 year return)5% AEP (20 year return)2% AEP (50 year return)1% AEP (100 year return): to demonstrate present day risk in alignment with the Auckland Unitary Plan activity controls2% AEP (50 year return) + 1m sea level rise2% AEP (50 year return) + 2m sea level rise1% AEP (100 year return) + 1m sea level rise: in alignment with Auckland Unitary Plan activity controls1% AEP (100 year return) + 2m sea level rise: to demonstrate longer term risk with ongoing sea-level riseThis is a generalised version of the data. Download the original full dataset with layer files here:https://data-aucklandcouncil.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/coastal-inundation-hazards-geodatabase/aboutThe layer takes into account extreme sea levels calculated between 2013 and 2019, as compiled in Carpenter, N., R Roberts and P Klinac (2020). Auckland’s exposure to coastal inundation by storm-tides and waves. Auckland Council technical report, TR2020/24. Auckland’s exposure to coastal inundation by storm-tides and waves (knowledgeauckland.org.nz)Sea-level rise values applied currently align with the projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sixth assessment report (2021), and the Ministry for the Environment (2022) Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections, which updates the Ministry for the Environment Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance for Local Government (2017). In MfE’s (2022) Interim guidance, (excluding vertical land movement) one metre sea-level rise is projected to occur between 2095 - >2200, depending on the emission scenario used. Two metre sea-level rise is projected to occur in the longer term (beyond 2150). MfE’s (2022) Interim guidance recommends the inclusion of vertical land movement (VLM) in relative sea level rise considerations. These are not included in the above sea level rise predictions due to the high VLM variability across the region. Vertical land movement is generally predicted to increase the rates of relative sea level rise for the Auckland region so should also be incorporated in planning and design.Refer to Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections | Ministry for the Environment for more information on MfE’s interim guidance on sea level rise and vertical land movement.Lineage:3Extreme sea levels for the Auckland region were derived by NIWA in 2013 (Part 1 of Technical Report 2020/24). From 2016-2019, additional extreme sea level data was gathered for:The east coast estuaries (NIWA, 2016; Part 2 of Technical Report 2020/24)Parakai/Helensville Harbour (DHI, 2019; Part 3 of Technical Report 2020/24)Great Barrier Island (NIWA, 2019; Part 4 of Technical Report 2020/24)In 2020, these levels were projected onto the land topography (derived from the 2016-2018 LiDAR survey) by Stantec to establish the extent of coastal flooding. Creation Date: 15/12/2020Update Cycle: Adhoc – when improved data becomes availableThis data is available to the public on the Geomaps viewer and is copied into LIMsContact Person: Natasha CarpenterContact Position:Coastal Management Practice Lead, Infrastructure and Environmental ServicesCouncil Contact:Natasha.Carpenter@aucklandcouncil.govt.nzConstraints – General:The Coastal Inundation data is subject to updates to reflect the latest, best available understanding of storm tides, waves and sea-level rise processes.The geodatabase contains a copy of the historic inundation mapping, which is superseded by the publication of the 2020 data. The superseded data is identified by having a validation state of 0, whereas the published data has a validation state of 3 (valid and public).Constraints – Legal: This data is available to the public on the Geomaps viewer and is copied into LIMsConstraints – Security: The Coastal Inundation data is available to the public Under Creative Commons license.

Purpose:The coastal inundation hazard layers map describes the areas exposed to extreme water levels caused by storm tides, wave setup and sea-level rise under the following scenarios (where AEP is the Annual Exceedance Probability or the chance of occurring each year, ARI is the Average Recurrence Interval):20% AEP (5 year return)5% AEP (20 year return)2% AEP (50 year return)1% AEP (100 year return): to demonstrate present day risk in alignment with the Auckland Unitary Plan activity controls2% AEP (50 year return) + 1m sea level rise2% AEP (50 year return) + 2m sea level rise1% AEP (100 year return) + 1m sea level rise: in alignment with Auckland Unitary Plan activity controls1% AEP (100 year return) + 2m sea level rise: to demonstrate longer term risk with ongoing sea-level riseThis is a generalised version of the data. Download the original full dataset with layer files here:https://data-aucklandcouncil.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/coastal-inundation-hazards-geodatabase/aboutThe layer takes into account extreme sea levels calculated between 2013 and 2019, as compiled in Carpenter, N., R Roberts and P Klinac (2020). Auckland’s exposure to coastal inundation by storm-tides and waves. Auckland Council technical report, TR2020/24. Auckland’s exposure to coastal inundation by storm-tides and waves (knowledgeauckland.org.nz)Sea-level rise values applied currently align with the projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sixth assessment report (2021), and the Ministry for the Environment (2022) Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections, which updates the Ministry for the Environment Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance for Local Government (2017). In MfE’s (2022) Interim guidance, (excluding vertical land movement) one metre sea-level rise is projected to occur between 2095 - >2200, depending on the emission scenario used. Two metre sea-level rise is projected to occur in the longer term (beyond 2150). MfE’s (2022) Interim guidance recommends the inclusion of vertical land movement (VLM) in relative sea level rise considerations. These are not included in the above sea level rise predictions due to the high VLM variability across the region. Vertical land movement is generally predicted to increase the rates of relative sea level rise for the Auckland region so should also be incorporated in planning and design.Refer to Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections | Ministry for the Environment for more information on MfE’s interim guidance on sea level rise and vertical land movement.Lineage:3Extreme sea levels for the Auckland region were derived by NIWA in 2013 (Part 1 of Technical Report 2020/24). From 2016-2019, additional extreme sea level data was gathered for:The east coast estuaries (NIWA, 2016; Part 2 of Technical Report 2020/24)Parakai/Helensville Harbour (DHI, 2019; Part 3 of Technical Report 2020/24)Great Barrier Island (NIWA, 2019; Part 4 of Technical Report 2020/24)In 2020, these levels were projected onto the land topography (derived from the 2016-2018 LiDAR survey) by Stantec to establish the extent of coastal flooding. Creation Date: 15/12/2020Update Cycle: Adhoc – when improved data becomes availableThis data is available to the public on the Geomaps viewer and is copied into LIMsContact Person: Natasha CarpenterContact Position:Coastal Management Practice Lead, Infrastructure and Environmental ServicesCouncil Contact:Natasha.Carpenter@aucklandcouncil.govt.nzConstraints – General:The Coastal Inundation data is subject to updates to reflect the latest, best available understanding of storm tides, waves and sea-level rise processes.The geodatabase contains a copy of the historic inundation mapping, which is superseded by the publication of the 2020 data. The superseded data is identified by having a validation state of 0, whereas the published data has a validation state of 3 (valid and public).Constraints – Legal: This data is available to the public on the Geomaps viewer and is copied into LIMsConstraints – Security: The Coastal Inundation data is available to the public Under Creative Commons license.

In 2020, sea level rise in Copenhagen, Denmark, stood at around ***** centimeters, relative to a ********* baseline. Under a very low GHG emissions scenario, it is projected that sea levels in Copenhagen could rise ** centimeters by 2150. Meanwhile, for a very high GHG emissions scenario, sea level rise in the Nordic capital could be as high as ***m by that year.

This dataset encompasses scripts and data for mapping flood exposure in Rotterdam's unembanked areas from 1970 to 2150. The associated research addresses four key objectives:

1. Map the total flood exposure in unembanked areas, considering the combined effects of sea level rise, urban development, and the construction of the Maeslant barrier.
2. Analyze the individual impact of i) sea level rise, ii) urban development and iii) construction of the Maeslant barrier on flood exposure.
3. Evaluate the geographical distribution of flood exposure across neighborhoods.
4. Assess the effectiveness of design elevation policies in mitigating flood exposure.

The dataset provides all necessary resources to reproduce the study's results. For a comprehensive overview of the folder structure and contents, please refer to the accompanying FolderStructure.pdf document.

Data for Box TS4 from Technical Summary of the Working Group I (WGI) Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Box TS4, Figure 1 shows global mean sea level change on different time scales and under different scenarios.

How to cite this dataset

When citing this dataset, please include both the data citation below (under 'Citable as') and the following citation for the report component from which the figure originates: Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, G. Bala, R. Barimalala, S. Berger, J.G. Canadell, C. Cassou, A. Cherchi, W. Collins, W.D. Collins, S.L. Connors, S. Corti, F. Cruz, F.J. Dentener, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, A. Diongue Niang, F.J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Dosio, H. Douville, F. Engelbrecht, V. Eyring, E. Fischer, P. Forster, B. Fox-Kemper, J.S. Fuglestvedt, J.C. Fyfe, N.P. Gillett, L. Goldfarb, I. Gorodetskaya, J.M. Gutierrez, R. Hamdi, E. Hawkins, H.T. Hewitt, P. Hope, A.S. Islam, C. Jones, D.S. Kaufman, R.E. Kopp, Y. Kosaka, J. Kossin, S. Krakovska, J.-Y. Lee, J. Li, T. Mauritsen, T.K. Maycock, M. Meinshausen, S.-K. Min, P.M.S. Monteiro, T. Ngo-Duc, F. Otto, I. Pinto, A. Pirani, K. Raghavan, R. Ranasinghe, A.C. Ruane, L. Ruiz, J.-B. Sallée, B.H. Samset, S. Sathyendranath, S.I. Seneviratne, A.A. Sörensson, S. Szopa, I. Takayabu, A.-M. Tréguier, B. van den Hurk, R. Vautard, K. von Schuckmann, S. Zaehle, X. Zhang, and K. Zickfeld, 2021: Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.002.

When citing the SSP-based sea-level projections, please also include the following citation: Garner, G. G., T. Hermans, R. E. Kopp, A. B. A. Slangen, T. L. Edwards, A. Levermann, S. Nowikci, M. D. Palmer, C. Smith, B. Fox-Kemper, H. T. Hewitt, C. Xiao, G. Aðalgeirsdóttir, S. S. Drijfhout, T. L. Edwards, N. R. Golledge, M. Hemer, G. Krinner, A. Mix, D. Notz, S. Nowicki, I. S. Nurhati, L. Ruiz, J-B. Sallée, Y. Yu, L. Hua, T. Palmer, B. Pearson, 2021. IPCC AR6 Global Mean Sea-Level Rise Projections. Version 20210809. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914710.

Figure subpanels

The figure has three panels. Panel a shows global mean sea level (GMSL) change from 1900 to 2150, observed (1900–2018) and projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (2000–2150). Panel b shows GMSL change on 100-, 2,000-, and 10,000-year time scales as a function of global surface temperature. Panel c shows timing of exceedance of different GMSL thresholds under different SSPs.

Final data is only available for panel c.

List of data provided

This dataset contains:

Global mean sea level change time-series from 1901-2150 for: - Observed global mean sea level change (1901-2018). - Projected global mean sea level change (2005-2150).

Data provided in relation to figure

Data provided in relation to Box TS4, Figure 1:

SSP-based global mean sea level projections are archived as

Garner, G. G., Hermans, T., Kopp, R. E., Slangen, A. B. A., Edwards, T. L., Levermann, A., Nowicki, S., Palmer, M. D., Smith, C., Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H. T., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S. S., Edwards, T. L., Golledge, N. R., Hemer, M., Krinner, G., Mix, A., … Pearson, B. (2021). IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections (Version 20210809) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5914710

Panel c:

• FigTS4-1c-milestone_ssp119_data.nc
• FigTS4-1c-milestone_ssp126_data.nc
• FigTS4-1c-milestone_ssp126_data.nc
• FigTS4-1c-milestone_ssp126_data.nc
• FigTS4-1c-milestone_ssp126_data.nc

See sections 9.6.3.2 and 9.6.3.3 for detailed information on the SSP-based global mean sea level projections and their production.

Notes on reproducing the figure from the provided data -------... For full abstract see: https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/923b94820acd42a1888eaae24de328f8.

Sea levels are projected to rise in Lima under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). In 2020, there was a sea level rise of ***** centimeters under the SSP1-1.6 scenario, relative to a ********* baseline. It is expected that sea levels in Lima will rise **** meters (m) under the same scenario by 2150 and **** m under the SSP1-2.6 scenario by the same year. The highest projected sea level rise in Lima is under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, reaching **** m by 2150.

The Tidal Inundation & Sea Level Rise dataset maps the extent of sea water coverage expected around the Auckland Region in the future with sea level rise during high tides alone. These water levels are based on The Mean High Water Spring Tide Sea Levels + 0.5m increments of sea level rise. The Mean High Water Spring Tide Sea Levels are the elevation of the high tide that is equalled or exceeded by only the highest 10% of all high tides.These high tide levels include the astronomically driven tide only (due to rotational and gravitational effects) and do not include waves or storm surges (which are the rise in sea level caused by wind action and low barometric pressure related to storm events). The extent of storm-tide inundation will be greater and this is mapped in the Coastal Storm Inundation Hazard data layer. Rainfall and freshwater flooding are also not included in this data, but are available separately in other geomaps layers e.g. ‘Flood Plains’, or on the Auckland Flood Viewer). The mean high water spring tide sea levels have been updated based on the mean sea level averaged over the period 2001–2019. This accounts for sea level rise that has occurred up until the effective base date of 2010, but does not include sea level rise that has occurred since that period. This is set out in the report Coastal inundation from sea-level rise in the Auckland Region (NIWA, 2023). 0.5m sea level rise increments are added on top of this in order to assess the increasing coastal inundation hazard into the future.Sea-level rise values applied currently align with the projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sixth assessment report (2021), and the Ministry for the Environment (2022) Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections, which updates the Ministry for the Environment Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance for Local Government (2017). In MfE’s (2022) interim guidance, (excluding vertical land movement) one metre sea-level rise is projected to occur between 2095 - >2200, depending on the emission scenario used. Two metre sea-level rise is projected to occur in the longer term (beyond 2150).MfE’s (2022) Interim guidance recommends the inclusion of vertical land movement (VLM) in relative sea level rise considerations. These are not included in the above sea level rise predictions due to the high VLM variability across the region. Vertical land movement is generally predicted to increase the rates of relative sea level rise for the Auckland region so should also be incorporated in planning and design.Refer to Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections | Ministry for the Environmentand NZ Sea Risefor more information on MfE’s interim guidance on sea level rise and vertical land movement.Mean high water spring tides are used to define the Coastal Marine area boundary within Auckland’s Unitary Plan. The inundation mapping is based on the Digital Elevation Model ground levels surveyed by aerial LiDAR between 2016-2018.Lineage:Coastal inundation from sea-level rise in the Auckland Region (NIWA, 2023) (Note: The studies informing this mapping of coastal inundation generally used Auckland Vertical Datum 1946. Auckland Council is now transitioning to using New Zealand Vertical Datum 2016.)Update Cycle:Adhoc when improved data becomes available.This data is available to the public on the Geomaps viewer and on Auckland Council Open Data portaland some coastal flood mapping is copied into LIM reports.

This is a data supplement to 'Vertical land motion reconstruction unveils non-linear effects on relative sea level changes from 1900-2150'. It presents a global-scale Vertical Land Motion (VLM) reconstruction that resolves height changes in the period 1995-2020. It is based on the joint probabilistic analysis of an extensive network of more than 11,000 GNSS stations, tide gauges, and satellite altimetry. The approach used to derive this reconstruction is described in the paper. The dataset variables are explained in the .pdf file.

Sea levels are projected to rise in Naples under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). In 2020, there was a sea level rise of *** centimeters under every scenario, relative to a ********* baseline. It is expected that sea levels in Naples will rise under the SSP1-1.6 scenario **** meters (m) by 2150 and **** m under the SSP1-2.6 scenario by the same year. The highest projected sea level rise in Naples is under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, reaching **** m by 2150.

This dataset contains IPCC AR6 relative sea-level projections tailored to Norway and published in the Norwegian Centre for Climate Services report by Simpson et al. (2024).

The projections has been produced by taking the IPCC AR6 relative sea-level projections without the background vertical land motion (VLM) component (Kopp, 2021), which have then been combined with the semi-empirical NKG2016LU VLM model (Vestøl et al., 2019). See Simpson et al. (2024) for more details.

The dataset is available as gridded data in netCDF version 4 format at Zenondo. The variables in the gridded netCDF data are:

quantile: Quantiles of the distribution of the sea-level change variable. Quantiles from 0.01 to 0.99 in 0.01 increments are available. In addition, the quantiles 0.001, 0.005, 0.167, 0.833, 0.995, and 0.999 are included. (total of 105 quantiles). Multiply by 100 to get the equivalent percentile values.

year: Years at which projection data are available. The medium confidence projections are available from 2020 to 2150 in 10-year increments (14 time steps). The low confidence projections are available from 2020 to 2300 in 10-year increments (29 time steps).

lat: Latitudes from 49 to 75 degrees north in 1/12 degree increments (313 values).

lon: Longitudes from 0 to 50 degrees east in 1/6 degree increments (301 values).

sea_level_change (sea_level_change_rate): Projected sea-level change (rate) with respect to the reference period 1995-2014. Units are millimeters (millimeters per year).

References:

Kopp, R. E. (2021). IPCC AR6 Relative Sea Level Projections without Background Component (Version 20210809) [Data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5967269

Vestøl, O., Ågren, J., Steffen, H., Kierulf, H., & Tarasov, L. (2019). NKG2016LU: A new land uplift model for Fennoscandia and the Baltic Region. Journal of Geodesy, 93(9), 1759–1779. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-019-01280-8

Simpson, M.J.R., Bonaduce, A., Borck, H.S., Breili, K., Breivik, Ø., Ravndal, O.R., Richter, K., 2024. Sea-Level Rise and Extremes in Norway: Observations and Projections Based on IPCC AR6. Norwegian Centre for Climate Services report 1/2024, ISSN 2704-1018, Oslo, Norway.

The Coastal Storm Inundation dataset maps the extent of sea water coverage expected around the Auckland Region during sustained coastal storm-tide flooding events. Elevated storm-tide sea levels are predicted based on the joint probability of a high tide, a storm surge (which is the rise in sea-level caused by wind action and low barometric pressure related to storm events), and wave setup. (Wave setup is the elevation of the mean sea level at the shoreline due to breaking waves. Larger dynamic wave processes like wave runup and overtopping are not included in this mapping so should be considered on top of these water levels. Rainfall and freshwater flooding are also not included in this data, but are available separately in other geomaps layers e.g. ‘Flood Plains’, or on the Auckland Flood Viewer). Coastal inundation (or coastal flooding) is mapped for a range of Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) events, where the AEP is the % probability of an event occurring each year. Extreme events can also often be referred to by their return period, or Average Recurrence Interval (ARI). The table below gives the conversion between the two terminologies:AEP (%)ARI (yr)18.154.9202.0501.0100The extreme sea level events were calculated between 2013 and 2019, as compiled in Carpenter, N., R Roberts and P Klinac (2020), Auckland’s exposure to coastal inundation by storm-tides and waves, Auckland Council technical report, TR2020/24, Auckland’s exposure to coastal inundation by storm-tides and waves (knowledgeauckland.org.nz)Increments of sea level rise have been applied on top of storm-tide sea level events in order to assess the increasing coastal flooding hazard into the future. Sea-level rise values applied currently align with the projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sixth assessment report (2021), and the Ministry for the Environment (2022) Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections, which updates the Ministry for the Environment Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance for Local Government (2017). In MfE’s (2022) interim guidance, (excluding vertical land movement) one metre sea-level rise is projected to occur between 2095 - >2200, depending on the emission scenario used. Two metre sea-level rise is projected to occur in the longer term (beyond 2150).MfE’s (2022) Interim guidance recommends the inclusion of vertical land movement (VLM) in relative sea level rise considerations. These are not included in the above sea level rise predictions due to the high VLM variability across the region. Vertical land movement is generally predicted to increase the rates of relative sea level rise for the Auckland region so should also be incorporated in planning and design.Refer to Interim guidance on the use of new sea-level rise projections | Ministry for the Environmentand NZ Sea Risefor more information on MfE’s interim guidance on sea level rise and vertical land movement.The inundation mapping is based on the Digital Elevation Model ground levels surveyed by aerial LiDAR between 2016-2018. Coastal inundation mapping is not available for some scenarios for the Parakai-Helensville area as this area’s complex dynamics requires hydrodynamic modelling to accurately assess the coastal storm inundation extent. Hydrodynamic modelling has not yet been carried out for all scenarios (e.g. 1.5m sea level rise) but is available for most 2% & 1% AEP scenarios and all tidal (MHWS) scenarios. Please see technical report 2020/024for information on the hydrodynamic modelling. Extreme sea levels for the Auckland region were derived by NIWA in 2013 (Part 1 of Technical Report 2020/24). From 2016-2019, additional extreme sea level data was gathered for:The east coast estuaries (NIWA, 2016; Part 2 of Technical Report 2020/24)Parakai/Helensville Harbour (DHI, 2019; Part 3 of Technical Report 2020/24)Great Barrier Island (NIWA, 2019; Part 4 of Technical Report 2020/24)In 2020, these levels were projected onto the land topography (derived from the 2016-2018 LiDAR survey) by Stantec to establish the extent of coastal flooding. Additional coastal flooding scenarios (annual exceedance probability events + sea level rise) were mapped in 2023 by Watershed Engineering and mean high water spring tides + sea level rise were mapped by NIWA.(Note: The studies informing this mapping of coastal inundation generally used Auckland Vertical Datum 1946. Auckland Council is now transitioning to using New Zealand Vertical Datum 2016.)Update Cycle:Adhoc when improved data becomes available.This data is available to the public on the Geomaps viewer and on Auckland Council Open Data portaland some coastal flood mapping is copied into LIM reports.