Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMD) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Central Tendency, Midpoint (GDPC1CTM) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

The U.S. federal funds effective rate underwent a dramatic reduction in early 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate plummeted from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.65 percent in March and further decreased to 0.05 percent in April. This sharp reduction, accompanied by the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program, was implemented to stabilize the economy during the global health crisis. After maintaining historically low rates for nearly two years, the Federal Reserve began a series of rate hikes in early 2022, with the rate moving from 0.33 percent in April 2022 to 5.33 percent in August 2023. The rate remained unchanged for over a year before the Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in nearly three years in September 2024, bringing the rate to 5.13 percent. By December 2024, the rate was cut to 4.48 percent, signaling a shift in monetary policy in the second half of 2024. In January 2025, the Federal Reserve implemented another cut, setting the rate at 4.33 percent, which remained unchanged until September 2025, when another cut set the rate at 4.22 percent. In October 2025, the rate was further reduced to 4.09 percent. What is the federal funds effective rate? The U.S. federal funds effective rate determines the interest rate paid by depository institutions, such as banks and credit unions, that lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight. Changing the effective rate in times of crisis is a common way to stimulate the economy, as it has a significant impact on the whole economy, such as economic growth, employment, and inflation. Central bank policy rates The adjustment of interest rates in response to the COVID-19 pandemic was a coordinated global effort. In early 2020, central banks worldwide implemented aggressive monetary easing policies to combat the economic crisis. The U.S. Federal Reserve's dramatic reduction of its federal funds rate—from 1.58 percent in February 2020 to 0.05 percent by April—mirrored similar actions taken by central banks globally. While these low rates remained in place throughout 2021, mounting inflationary pressures led to a synchronized tightening cycle beginning in 2022, with central banks pushing rates to multi-year highs. By mid-2024, as inflation moderated across major economies, central banks began implementing their first rate cuts in several years, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and European Central Bank all easing monetary policy.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMDLR) from 2012-01-25 to 2025-09-17 about projection, federal, median, rate, and USA.

This Commentary estimates the implied parameters of simple monetary policy rules using the median paths for the federal funds rate and other economic variables provided in the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The implied policy rule parameters appear to have changed over time, as the federal funds rate projections have become less responsive to the unemployment gap. This finding could reflect changes in policymakers’ preferences, uncertainty over other aspects of the policy rule, or limitations of estimating simple monetary policy rules from the median SEP paths.

In the December 2022 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the median projection for four-quarter core PCE inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 2.1 percent. This same SEP has unemployment rising by nine-tenths, to 4.6 percent, by the end of 2023. We assess the plausibility of this projection using a specific nonlinear model that embeds an empirically successful nonlinear Phillips curve specification into a structural model, identifying it via an underutilized data-dependent method. We model core PCE inflation using three components that align with those noted by Chair Powell in his December 14, 2022, press conference: housing, core goods, and core-services-less-housing. Our model projects that conditional on the SEP unemployment rate path and a rapid deceleration of core goods prices, core PCE inflation moderates to only 2.75 percent by the end of 2025: inflation will be higher for longer. A deep recession would be necessary to achieve the SEP’s projected inflation path. A simple reduced-form welfare analysis, which abstracts from any danger of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, suggests that such a recession would not be optimal.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 2.900 % in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.600 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.500 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.000 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 3.600 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.600 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.200 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.100 % in Sep 2023 and a record low of 0.400 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Central Tendency: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

🏛️ Federal Reserve Document Scraper

1. Dataset description

This repository contains code for downloading and organizing Federal Reserve documents from the official Federal Reserve Board website.

These files were used as part of my NLP project. While collecting data, my data collection code is inspired by centralbank_analysis by yukit-k. However, that implementation had some limitations:

❌ Incomplete handling of newer HTML structures on the Fed website

❌ No support for Greenbook/Tealbook files

❌ File naming and folder structure not ideal for downstream processing

❌ No handling of failed downloads or noisy formatting

So I made som key Improvements:

✅ Supports both Greenbook and Minutes. You can choose which type to download

✅ Automatic directory organization. Files are saved using a consistent format as:

FOMC_[document type]_YYYY-MM-DD

✅ Duplicate check & resume support: Prevents redundant downloads and handles broken links gracefully

✅ Modular and extensible codebase Easy to extend for other Fed documents (e.g., SEP, transcripts)

2. Data detail

This repository contains modules for downloading and processing various official publications of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). These documents, produced and released by the Federal Reserve, provide detailed insight into U.S. monetary policy formation, communication, and economic analysis over time.

Below is a reference guide to the major FOMC document types represented in this repository.

📅 FomcAgenda.py – Meeting Agendas

Agendas are created by the FOMC Secretariat in coordination with the Chair and outline the topics of discussion for each meeting, including standard items (e.g., open market operations, economic outlook) and special topics. Participants receive the agenda about one week in advance.

📄 FomcStatement.py – Policy Statements

FOMC statements are brief summaries of monetary policy decisions released immediately after each meeting. These statements have become a key communication tool since 1994 and are now issued after every scheduled meeting, even if policy remains unchanged.

📝 FomcMinutes.py – Meeting Minutes

Minutes provide a concise, narrative summary of policy discussions and rationales. Since 2004, they are released three weeks after each meeting. The minutes include details on voting outcomes and dissenting views, and are eventually included in the Fed’s Annual Report.

🧾 FomcPresConfScript.py – Press Conference Transcripts

Beginning in 2011, the Fed Chair has held press conferences following certain FOMC meetings. These transcripts document the Chair’s remarks and responses to journalists, offering additional context and forward guidance. Released shortly after the meeting.

🗣️ FomcMeetingScript.py – Meeting Transcripts

Verbatim transcripts of FOMC meetings, produced from audio recordings and lightly edited for readability. They are released with a 5-year delay. For meetings prior to 1994, transcripts were reconstructed from raw records and may contain transcription uncertainties.

📚 FomcGreenbook.py – Greenbook (1964–2010)

The Greenbook, officially titled Current Economic and Financial Conditions, was prepared by Board staff and delivered to FOMC members six days before each meeting. It provided forecasts, data analyses, and economic outlooks.

Part 1: Summary and forecast

Part 2: Detailed breakdowns

Supplement: Late-breaking updates

📘 FomcBlueBook.py – Bluebook (1965–2010)

The Bluebook, titled Monetary Policy Alternatives, outlined potential policy options and risks. It was distributed shortly after the Greenbook and informed FOMC decisions. The document evolved from earlier versions like Money Market and Reserve Relationships.

🧠 FomcTealbook.py – Tealbook (2010–Present)

The Tealbook replaced both the Greenbook and Bluebook in June 2010. It is split into two parts:

Tealbook A: Current Situation and Outlook — Forecasts and financial developments

Tealbook B: Strategies and Alternatives — Policy options and simulations

Both are released with a 5-year lag.

📙 FomcBeigeBook.py – Beige Book

The Beige Book, published eight times a year, summarizes anecdotal economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. Based on business surveys, interviews, and internal reports, it is released ~two weeks before each meeting.

🧾 FomcTestimony.py – Testimony before Congress

This includes the Chair’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and other testimonies. These communications explain the Fed’s outlook and policies directly to lawmakers and the public.

📚 References

Federal Reserve – FOMC Archive

Wikipedia – Federal Open Market Committee

His estimates suggest the federal funds rate projections have become less responsive to the unemployment gap over the last year.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 2.400 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.400 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.000 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.900 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 2.600 % in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.200 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.250 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.000 % in Dec 2022 and a record low of 2.100 % in Sep 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Core PCE Inflation: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.I: PCE Price Index: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 3.900 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.900 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.900 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 5.600 % in Dec 2022 and a record low of 1.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 2.500 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.500 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.400 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.000 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 2.000 % in Sep 2017. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.A026: NIPA 2023: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Price: saar: QoQ: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Median (UNRATEMDLR) from 2015-06-17 to 2025-09-17 about projection, civilian, median, unemployment, rate, and USA.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States increased to -1.70 points in November from -12.80 points in October of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data was reported at 3.100 % in Mar 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.100 % for Dec 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.900 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.400 % in Sep 2018 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 3.800 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.800 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.700 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.600 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 3.000 % in Sep 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G041: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 4.500 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 4.500 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.550 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.000 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 4.000 % in Dec 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G041: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data was reported at 4.300 % in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 4.200 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.050 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.800 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 3.500 % in Dec 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Median: Year 3 (Y3) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G041: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.