As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS1MO) from 2001-07-31 to 2025-03-25 about 1-month, bills, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.78 percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

Key information about Japan Short Term Government Bond Yield

• Japan Short Term Government Bond Yield: Daily: Japan: 1 Year was reported at 0.65 % pa in Mar 2025, compared with 0.64 % pa in the previous day.
• Japan Short Term Government Bond Yield data is updated daily, available from Sep 1974 to Mar 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 0.65 % pa in Mar 2025 and a record low of -0.37 % pa in Jul 2016.
• Short Term Government Bond Yield is reported by CEIC Data.

This statistic shows money market interest rates of short term government securities in the United States from 2007 to 2023. In December 2021, the average market yield of 3-month treasury bills on U.S. government securities amounted to 0.06 percent. Due to increased policy rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve, interest rates on government securities rose throughout 2022 and 2023, reaching an average of 5.44 percent for the 3-month treasury bill and 5.34 percent for the 6-month treasury bill.

Key information about Colombia Short Term Government Bond Yield

• Colombia Short Term Government Bond Yield: Daily: Colombia: 1 Year was reported at 8.87 % pa in Mar 2025, compared with 8.94 % pa in the previous day.
• Colombia Short Term Government Bond Yield data is updated daily, available from Jan 2003 to Mar 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 13.38 % pa in Oct 2022 and a record low of 1.78 % pa in Feb 2021.
• Short Term Government Bond Yield is reported by CEIC Data.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Canada (IRLTLT01CAM156N) from Jan 1955 to Feb 2025 about long-term, Canada, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS5) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-03-20 about maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, 5-year, rate, and USA.

Key information about India Short Term Government Bond Yield

• India Short Term Government Bond Yield: Month End: India: 1 Year was reported at 6.58 % pa in Jan 2025, compared with 6.66 % pa in the previous month.
• India Short Term Government Bond Yield data is updated monthly, available from May 1996 to Jan 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 13.01 % pa in Jan 1998 and a record low of 3.46 % pa in Nov 2020.
• Short Term Government Bond Yield is reported by CEIC Data.

China Bond Yield: Medium & Short Term Note (AAA): 1 Year data was reported at 1.699 % pa in 16 May 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.687 % pa for 15 May 2025. China Bond Yield: Medium & Short Term Note (AAA): 1 Year data is updated daily, averaging 3.261 % pa from Dec 2006 (Median) to 16 May 2025, with 4599 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.325 % pa in 25 Dec 2013 and a record low of 1.615 % pa in 06 Jan 2025. China Bond Yield: Medium & Short Term Note (AAA): 1 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: PBC & CCDC: Treasury Bond and Other Bond Yield: Daily.

In January 2020, prior to the onset of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, three of the seven largest economies by GDP had negative yields for two-year government bonds (Japan, Germany and France). With the onset of the pandemic, two-year bond yields in these countries actually rose slightly - in contrast to the other major economies, where yields fell over this period. As of December 2024, yields for two-year government bonds exhibited fluctuations across all countries. Notably, Japan showed a slight upward trend, while China experienced a modest decline.Negative yields assume that investors lack confidence in economic growth, meaning many investments (such as stocks) may lose value. Therefore, it is preferable to take a small loss on government debt that carries almost no risk to the investor, than risk a larger loss on other investments. As both the yen and euro are considered very safe assets, Japanese, German and French bonds were already being held by many investors prior to the pandemic as a hedge against economic downturn. Therefore, with the announcement of fiscal responses to the pandemic by many governments around March 2020, the value of these assets rose as confidence increased (slightly) that the worst case may be avoided. At the same time, yields on bonds with a higher return fell, as investors sought out investments with a higher return that were still considered safe.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (LTIIT) from Jan 2000 to Feb 2025 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Of the largest economies by GDP, the United States saw the sharpest fall in absolute terms for 10-year government bond yields due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. From a level of 1.51 percent in January 2020, yields on 10-year government bonds fell to 0.65 percent by April 2020, and had further fallen to 0.53 percent by July 2020 before starting to recover towards the end of the year. Conversely, countries that went into 2020 with already low bond yields like Japan, Germany and France actually saw a small increase in March 2020 - although these already low yields mean that these small changes are significant in relative terms. As of December 2024, the countries with the highest 10-year yields are the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia with 4.66, 4.54 and 4.46 percent, respectively.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

In 2024, long-term government bond yields in Japan stood at 0.89 percent. The yield on long-term government bonds with a residual maturity of around 10 years rose from 0.55 percent in 2023.

Key information about Poland Short Term Government Bond Yield

• Poland Short Term Government Bond Yield: Month Avg: Poland: 2 and 5 Years was reported at 5.45 % pa in Aug 2023, compared with 5.30 % pa in the previous month.
• Poland Short Term Government Bond Yield data is updated monthly, available from Oct 1999 to Aug 2023.
• The data reached an all-time high of 15.17 % pa in Oct 2000 and a record low of 0.36 % pa in Jan 2021.
• Short Term Government Bond Yield is reported by CEIC Data.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Poland (IRLTLT01PLM156N) from Jan 2001 to Feb 2025 about Poland, long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for Costa Rica (CRIIRLTLT01STM) from Aug 2011 to Dec 2024 about Costa Rica, long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, interest rate, interest, and rate.

Mexikos Kurzfristige Rendite von Staatsanleihen belief sich im 2025-02 auf 5.90 % pa. Dies stellt einen Rückgang im Vergleich zu den vorherigen Zahlen von 6.17 % pa für 2025-01 dar. Mexikos Kurzfristige Rendite von Staatsanleihen werden monatlich aktualisiert, mit einem Durchschnitt von 3.09 % pa von 1996-05 bis 2025-02, mit 235 Beobachtungen. Die Daten erreichten ein Allzeithoch in Höhe von 8.61 % pa im 1996-07 und ein Rekordtief in Höhe von 0.40 % pa im 2013-10. Mexikos Kurzfristige Rendite von Staatsanleihen Daten behalten den Aktiv-Status in CEIC und werden von CEIC Data gemeldet. Die Daten werden unter World Trend Pluss Global Economic Monitor – Table: Short Term Government Bond Yield: Monthly kategorisiert.