As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (DLTIIT) from 2000-01-03 to 2025-03-24 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

This statistic shows money market interest rates of short term government securities in the United States from 2007 to 2023. In December 2021, the average market yield of 3-month treasury bills on U.S. government securities amounted to 0.06 percent. Due to increased policy rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve, interest rates on government securities rose throughout 2022 and 2023, reaching an average of 5.44 percent for the 3-month treasury bill and 5.34 percent for the 6-month treasury bill.

Key information about US Short Term Government Bond Yield

• United States Short Term Government Bond Yield: Daily: United States: 1 Year was reported at 4.09 % pa in Mar 2025, compared with 4.11 % pa in the previous day.
• US Short Term Government Bond Yield data is updated daily, available from Jan 1962 to Mar 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 5.49 % pa in Oct 2023 and a record low of 0.04 % pa in Jun 2021.
• Short Term Government Bond Yield is reported by CEIC Data.

Federal Reserve Board provides daily Short Term Government Bond Yield.

Graph and download economic data for Yields on Short-Term United States Securities, Three-Six Month Treasury Notes and Certificates, Three Month Treasury Bills for United States (M1329AUSM193NNBR) from Jan 1920 to Mar 1934 about short-term, 6-month, notes, bills, 3-month, securities, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.78 percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

US 10 Year Note Bond Yield was 4.34 percent on Wednesday March 26, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

View values of the average interest rate at which Treasury bills with a 3-month maturity are sold on the secondary market.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS1MO) from 2001-07-31 to 2025-03-25 about 1-month, bills, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Key information about Japan Short Term Government Bond Yield

• Japan Short Term Government Bond Yield: Daily: Japan: 1 Year was reported at 0.62 % pa in Mar 2025, compared with 0.62 % pa in the previous day.
• Japan Short Term Government Bond Yield data is updated daily, available from Sep 1974 to Mar 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 0.64 % pa in Mar 2025 and a record low of -0.37 % pa in Jul 2016.
• Short Term Government Bond Yield is reported by CEIC Data.

The Ministry of Finance provides daily Short Term Government Bond Yield.

US 30 Year Bond Yield was 4.72 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

As of the last quarter of 2022, the value of the short-term interest rate on government bonds in Italy amounted to 1.8 percent. After increasing throughout 2010 and 2011, the short-term interest rate on Italian government bonds started decreasing, reaching the lowest value in the last quarter of 2021, at -0.57 percent.

Key information about United States Short Term Interest Rate

• United States Short Term Interest Rate: Month End: Treasury Bills: 3 Months was reported at 4.20 % pa in Feb 2025, compared with 4.20 % pa in the previous month.
• US Short Term Interest Rate data is updated monthly, available from Jan 1954 to Feb 2025.
• The data reached an all-time high of 15.52 % pa in Aug 1981 and a record low of -0.01 % pa in Sep 2015.
• Short Term Interest Rate is reported by reported by Federal Reserve Board.

CEIC calculates monthly Short Term Interest Rate from daily Treasury Bills. Federal Reserve Board provides Treasury Bills. Short Term Interest Rate prior to December 1979 is sourced from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.


Related information about United States Short Term Interest Rate

• In the latest reports, US Treasury Notes Yield: Constant Maturity: Nominal: 10 Years was reported at 4.45 % pa in Feb 2025.
• The cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: Effective Federal Funds Rate) was set at 4.33 % pa in Jan 2025.

In December 2024, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 4.39 percent, forecasted to decrease to reach 3.27 percent by August 2025. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

China Bond Yield: Medium & Short Term Note (AAA): 1 Year data was reported at 1.939 % pa in 25 Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.960 % pa for 24 Mar 2025. China Bond Yield: Medium & Short Term Note (AAA): 1 Year data is updated daily, averaging 3.261 % pa from Dec 2006 (Median) to 25 Mar 2025, with 4564 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.325 % pa in 25 Dec 2013 and a record low of 1.615 % pa in 06 Jan 2025. China Bond Yield: Medium & Short Term Note (AAA): 1 Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. The data is categorized under China Premium Database’s Money Market, Interest Rate, Yield and Exchange Rate – Table CN.MF: PBC & CCDC: Treasury Bond and Other Bond Yield: Daily.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 6-Month to 2-Year: Total for Mexico (IRLTST01MXM156N) from Nov 1990 to Dec 2023 about 6-month, 2-year, Mexico, long-term, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, and rate.

The Long-Term Composite Rate is the unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon bonds neither due nor callable in less than 10 years. Dataset updated daily every weekday.

US 2 Year Note Bond Yield was 3.99 percent on Thursday March 27, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 3-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS3MO) from 1981-09-01 to 2025-03-25 about bills, 3-month, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.